ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX
20 September 2018, 11:19 PM | #1 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: TRF
Posts: 32
|
Has a watch 'bubble' ever popped before in history?
It seems that some models in Patek and Rolex are becoming irrational: Patek 5711/5712's are selling ~2x their MSRP, even for the new Rolex Daytona going for around the same ~2x MSRP. Vintage rolex prices have shot up 2-3x in the past few years.
I haven't lived long enough to know this, but in the history of watches, has there ever been a bubble that popped and caused prices reverted back to MSRP? Is this tulip mania? |
20 September 2018, 11:53 PM | #2 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Real Name: Steven
Location: Glocal
Posts: 19,398
|
Yes, during the Asian crisis and of course .com bubble. As an example, the then current model (as i recall) Patek 3939H went for $179k at auction (application piece, around $400k or so retail). There are other examples, yet this one jogs my memory because, well, wanted it yet yet felt due to bubble burst it may be better to hold onto....
Best bet is to NOT BUY NOW and wait for the bubble burst.
__________________
__________________ “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming 'Wow! What a Ride!'” -- Hunter S. Thompson Sent from my Etch A Sketch using String Theory. |
20 September 2018, 11:54 PM | #3 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: USA
Posts: 457
|
I'm wondering the same thing. Up until maybe 6 months ago, I kept thinking that the bubble would pop and then everything would quickly fall back to where it was 2-3 years ago (MSRP or below on everything but the Daytona).
For Rolex, I can still see this happening, as it wouldn't take much. I think part of the reason certain models (e.g., the 116610LV) are popular is because people know they won't lose money buying them, so there's no real risk. However, if the economy takes a dive, people will think a lot harder about buying them, especially for a premium. This starts a cycle; once there's no premium, people who are next on the list from ADs will be more nervous about buying them, which will make them more available at ADs, which will further lower grey market price, etc. No Rolex models other than the blue Sky-Dweller, Daytona, and BLRO are reliably commanding more than a $2k premium, and even those three very popular models are only commanding ~$6-7k premiums. The $2k is nothing and could evaporate in a matter of weeks, whereas the $6-7k will take longer and might be more likely to stabilize at ~$2-3k than fall all the way back to MSRP if demand doesn't increase. The tricky one, for me, is the 5711. It's literally going for $20-25k over MSRP, and I just can't see that evaporating quickly. I can see a slower decrease in demand that takes place over a few years, but I'm having a hard time seeing a scenario where they are readily available from ADs as the were a few years ago. That being said, if prices can rise this much in a few years, they certainly can fall that much, so I'm probably wrong. All of this is pure speculation; I'm too young to remember a watch bubble popping -- in fact, all I know is the bubble, as I didn't really get into collecting until recently.
__________________
Instagram: @watchadmiral |
20 September 2018, 11:56 PM | #4 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Seattle
Posts: 787
|
Excellent question. I guess (ie. fear) there will be a point in time in which wearing wrist watches, even more so mechanical ones, may become as outdated as carrying a pocket watch today. By then, the demand for our now beloved watches will have sharply dropped. Granted, there will still be a few collector pieces (Nautilus? Daytona? Who knows...), but the vast majority of today's “collectible” watches may be even difficult to sell for 'any' price. Prices reflect supply/demand. I know this is an uncomfortable and inconvenient truth, and I do hope I am referring to the 22nd century...
|
21 September 2018, 12:01 AM | #5 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: N/A
Posts: 11,136
|
bubble backs...
stella day-dates have actually come down a fair amount... Ninas... Big burst in frank muller... But in my opinion, there is no real bubble in vintage Rolex and Patek which will continue to do well long-term (some things seemed to have softened over the summer but not significantly). These watches are special, iconic, forever cool and just not THAT many of them. Current production Patek and limited editions made in big numbers is scary to see trading at multiples of retail price...
__________________
Instagram: @watches_anonymous |
21 September 2018, 12:43 AM | #6 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: N/A
Posts: 3,629
|
2008. Milgauss GV back in the days were going for more than 100% over retail. By 2010 you couldn't give them away. Same deal for the 5960P and 5980/1A back in those days going for 100% over retail.
|
21 September 2018, 03:06 AM | #7 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Real Name: Steven
Location: Glocal
Posts: 19,398
|
SS on plastic band was 5167 was $17k usd lnib only a few years ago.
Bubble? Obviously.
__________________
__________________ “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming 'Wow! What a Ride!'” -- Hunter S. Thompson Sent from my Etch A Sketch using String Theory. |
21 September 2018, 05:06 AM | #8 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: UK
Posts: 284
|
The bubble won’t burst until the next global downturn. We’re many years away from one, I believe.
|
21 September 2018, 05:11 AM | #9 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Houston
Posts: 17,622
|
you are more optimistic than me. I hope you are right.
__________________
Instagram: tyler.watches current collection: Patek 5164A, Patek 5524G, Rolex Platinum Daytona 116506, Rolex Sea Dweller 43 126600, Rolex GMT II 116710LN, AP 15400ST (silver), Panerai 913, Omega Speedmaster moonwatch, Tudor Black Bay (Harrods Edition) |
21 September 2018, 05:21 AM | #10 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: N/A
Posts: 3,629
|
Quote:
I have my own views on this. Thankfully now I'm buying pieces without regard to where the market will go on them, and I'm more comfortable with that instead of chasing after all the shiniest objects. |
|
21 September 2018, 05:32 AM | #11 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Sunshine State
Watch: All
Posts: 239
|
|
21 September 2018, 05:40 AM | #12 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: USA
Watch: addiction issues
Posts: 36,856
|
Quote:
I wish I had bought it and put it in the safe. Even worse the day the 116500 was announced, my patek AD who carries rolex offered me both white and black 116520s when I called. I passed
__________________
|
|
21 September 2018, 06:40 AM | #13 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: England
Watch: 5990
Posts: 3,339
|
Quote:
|
|
21 September 2018, 06:48 AM | #14 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: California
Watch: 26420RO
Posts: 448
|
The great recession 10 years ago hit tons of asset classes.
To me the good thing about a watch or other tangible fairly liquid asset is that you get to enjoy it even if its market value decreases. You can't say the same thing about an equity investment, for example. And whenever my investments decrease meaningfully in value, I always think "I should have intstead bought cars, watches, etc. because at least I would have something to show for it."
__________________
Current collection: AP 26420RO.OO.A002CA.01, PP 5164A, AP 15202BA, Omega 310.32.42.50.01.002, Tudor m79030b-0003, Garmin Epix Gen 2 Waiting for: AP 126715ST.OO.1356ST.01 |
21 September 2018, 08:10 AM | #15 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: Colorado
Watch: your time
Posts: 1,421
|
The great recession really has me scratching my head at what's going on today. I can remember being in stores that had everything you could ever want including Patek - the original eye on the stars snoopy in cases and Omega willing to discount heavily on that piece, any Rolex aside from the SS Daytona was not a problem at all, etc...
"All ships rise with the tide." The global economy isn't so bad as others have said, thus demand is there to keep these prices up. |
21 September 2018, 09:46 AM | #16 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: USA
Posts: 4,341
|
There was supposedly a Panerai bubble burst some time ago, although I don't follow that brand.
https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=309123 |
21 September 2018, 11:14 AM | #17 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2010
Real Name: @jb.watching
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,467
|
Quote:
Hype was at an all time high, production numbers while never low were much lower than today. Even 2008 and the financial crisis didn't really knock much wind out of those sails (for those pieces in the market at that time). But then the bubble burst. I have no doubt a large part of the Rolex steel market will come back to earth. I'm not so certain about at least some of the Nautilus models, 5711/12 I think will remain strong unless Patek do something to alter supply materially. Just my opinion. And you know what they say about opinions, they are like..... |
|
21 September 2018, 11:21 AM | #18 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: usofmfa
Posts: 3,157
|
More devastating than any watch bubble was the Beanie Baby bubble. Dark times.
__________________
Instagram: soundsoserious |
21 September 2018, 12:19 PM | #19 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 169
|
Non-essential high dollar luxury items are among the first things to tank in a recession. There's a buying opportunity coming. I just don't know when.
|
21 September 2018, 01:00 PM | #20 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: U.S.A
Watch: Only Rolex & Patek
Posts: 3,339
|
Has a watch 'bubble' ever popped before in history?
Yes.....
I blame it on the "Fake Rich" that could not afford to keep their luxury goods.... Having said that Patek Philippe & Rolex learn something new & try not to make the same mistake.... That why they limit or control their SS sport watches supply just in case if there will be a financial crisis recession in the future......
__________________
Rolex Forum: Mainly Rolex & Benz pictures...!!! Click the above link to join the club...^^^... "SL BRABUS" aka BenzWorld Undercover Moderator |
21 September 2018, 10:54 PM | #21 | |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2012
Real Name: Steven
Location: Glocal
Posts: 19,398
|
Quote:
__________________
__________________ “Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming 'Wow! What a Ride!'” -- Hunter S. Thompson Sent from my Etch A Sketch using String Theory. |
|
22 September 2018, 01:53 AM | #22 |
Banned
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Cloud 7
Posts: 35
|
Isn't the more important question why people only care for those particular brands and models (AP including)? I mean there are a lot more brands and good looking models with equal and even better quality out there! Isn't this sidedness lame for any true watch lover?
|
22 September 2018, 02:26 AM | #23 |
Banned
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: UK
Posts: 4,345
|
In 2008 16610LVs were sitting on AD windows and Daytonas were available with a vey short wait. In 2008 I bought a 16610LV from an AD without any wait and couple of years later I got a Daytona after a 1 month wait. The current bubble will burst but I'm not sure when
I think 5711 prices may have plateaued as watchfinder has 4 5711 blue dials and those watches are not moving |
22 September 2018, 04:50 AM | #24 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Santa Fe
Posts: 1,852
|
|
22 September 2018, 07:12 AM | #25 |
Banned
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: SoCal
Posts: 2,405
|
what goes up, must come down
|
22 September 2018, 08:19 AM | #26 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: HK
Posts: 2,257
|
|
22 September 2018, 09:04 AM | #27 |
Banned
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Cloud 7
Posts: 35
|
|
22 September 2018, 09:26 AM | #28 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: N/A
Posts: 3,629
|
Quote:
My recent acquisitions have been an Explorer I, CK2998 and Lange Saxonia Thin... the last is especially cold in a market like this, but I've been getting tons of enjoyment from it. These things are going for basement bargain prices and are getting lost in the noise of all the hype around other models. |
|
22 September 2018, 09:52 AM | #29 |
2024 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: United States
Watch: Rolex and Patek
Posts: 10,578
|
The demand now is for a very few types of SS pieces. Overall, the watch market is very soft and the bubble burst some time ago. Demand for watches continues to fall. Rolex, PP and AP sport steel are the only signs of life.We may not even have a Basel Fair in a few years.
|
22 September 2018, 12:38 PM | #30 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: N/A
Posts: 11,136
|
Quote:
I will be sure to tell the Richard Mille crowd! Lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
__________________
Instagram: @watches_anonymous |
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|
*Banners
Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.