the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[gtnator]

When will the first TRFer have the misfortune of getting Coronavirus? I assume some already have. Would be great to hear a recovery story first hand.


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[BigBlue1]

I have to say I am surprised at this circus that is allowed to continue. Must just be different rules for different folks. Some can say as they please while others are warned and or banned. I have been warned For far less.

[Art 1]

Probably more drunks and drug addicts will die today than this virus has killed up to this point. Of course I don’t have the data to prove this but wouldn’t be surprised if this was true.

[austinp]

Originally Posted by Art 1

Probably more drunks and drug addicts will die today than this virus has killed up to this point. Of course I don’t have the data to prove this but wouldn’t be surprised if this was true.

Indeed.

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[BNABOD]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

I’m not sure if saying WHO’s numbers aren’t true. They’re an evidenced based organization and that means a lot. They don’t throw numbers out or swing on hunches. They’re extremely careful in publicly announcing any statistical information unless it’s been truly validated under strict guidelines. China’s actions alone, literally brought to their knees was not an overreaction, that was done based on evidence (that we don’t know.) And that was months before WHO was allowed to tour. China could have easily created a >1% narrative and let coronavirus take a natural course like the flu or cold. Think deeper and be logical and you’ll begin to answer the questions. And the US media has two clear narratives, one driven by maintaining health and one driven by maintaining consumerism.

Never said the numbers of fatalities wasn’t accurate based on whoever is actually diagnosed w covid 19. What I said is that the number of infected people is IMO much greater than the 100k but not diagnosed therefore the 3.4% is inflated not maliciously but inflated nonetheless . Think deeper

[BNABOD]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

The poster you responded to was not quibbling with the WHOs numbers, though he made an entirely valid point.



If you look at the WHO situation reports (latest one https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=ed2ba78b_2) they don't even document percentages, simply confirmed cases and confirmed deaths. As it should be.



However the confirmed case number must logically be the absolute lower bound of total infections and given that the evidence thus far suggests 80% of those infected have mild symptms (http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article...b-fea8db1a8f51) a large proportion will therefore be invisible to the statisticians because they will not all seek medical attention or even know they are infected with COVID-19. Since the denominator is almost certainly significantly higher than the confirmed case number, then the current mortality estimates - which as far as I can tell are mostly media, not WHO-driven - are over-estimates. Nobody yet knows how much of an overestimate they will turn out to be.

Finally ...thank you

[77T]

Originally Posted by Art 1

Probably more drunks and drug addicts will die today than this virus has killed up to this point. Of course I don’t have the data to prove this but wouldn’t be surprised if this was true.

You are correct, here is some data to validate it: https://www.who.int/substance_abuse/facts/en/

If you just average the annual figures for alcohol alone, over 8,000 die each day.

But I don’t think this provides any context to infectious diseases like coronavirus. Stating the numbers leads one to marginalize both substance abuse and COVID-19.





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[Art 1]

Originally Posted by 77T

You are correct, here is some data to validate it: https://www.who.int/substance_abuse/facts/en/

If you just average the annual figures for alcohol alone, over 8,000 die each day.

But I don’t think this provides any context to infectious diseases like coronavirus. Stating the numbers leads one to marginalize both substance abuse and COVID-19.





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I agree. Just venting. Bothers me how things are slowing down for no good reason other than fear.

[V25V]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

However the confirmed case number must logically be the absolute lower bound of total infections and given that the evidence thus far suggests 80% of those infected have mild symptms (http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article...b-fea8db1a8f51) a large proportion will therefore be invisible to the statisticians because they will not all seek medical attention or even know they are infected with COVID-19. Since the denominator is almost certainly significantly higher than the confirmed case number, then the current mortality estimates - which as far as I can tell are mostly media, not WHO-driven - are over-estimates. Nobody yet knows how much of an overestimate they will turn out to be.

Good point, didn't think of that but that would grossly beef up the mortality rate if not factoring in those who were in fact infected but did not know it was corona.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

The poster you responded to was not quibbling with the WHOs numbers, though he made an entirely valid point.



If you look at the WHO situation reports (latest one https://www.who.int/docs/default-sou...rsn=ed2ba78b_2) they don't even document percentages, simply confirmed cases and confirmed deaths. As it should be.



However the confirmed case number must logically be the absolute lower bound of total infections and given that the evidence thus far suggests 80% of those infected have mild symptms (http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article...b-fea8db1a8f51) a large proportion will therefore be invisible to the statisticians because they will not all seek medical attention or even know they are infected with COVID-19. Since the denominator is almost certainly significantly higher than the confirmed case number, then the current mortality estimates - which as far as I can tell are mostly media, not WHO-driven - are over-estimates. Nobody yet knows how much of an overestimate they will turn out to be.

Originally Posted by V25V

Good point, didn't think of that but that would grossly beef up the mortality rate if not factoring in those who were in fact infected but did not know it was corona.

Agree...

From an editorial by Dr. Anthony S. Fauci in NE Journal of Medicine:

“If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%.

This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.”


https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

Maybe there has been a rush to judgement in some quarters. But to get the various populations informed - and to keep sick people home, and washing hands by everyone - it may have served a purpose.



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[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by BNABOD

While I agree it isn’t low, the 3.4% isn’t likely true because many people will contract the virus yet will never be treated for it . How many people a year get the flu and never go to the ER / doc/ urgent care ....The mortality rate is much higher than the regular flu w covid19 but the 3.4% is most likely way too high if one were to look at the whole pie.

This is true. It’s also true that many deaths in the community from upper respiratory infection, pneumonia or other non-specific causes are probably actually caused by influenza, and the patients are never identified as a flu death. Not everyone who is sick with flu is diagnosed, nor is everyone who dies of flu. I was a deputy county coroner for five years, and I can attest to the fact that very few unattended (meaning deaths not occurring in a hospital or other care facility) deaths in a community are labeled as suspicious requiring further investigation. Thus, autopsies and post-mortem lab tests are very often not done.

[emersm]

Have a great weekend, friends.

[rowdy3]

Sxsw and calle ocho festival has been canceled.

[BumbleB]

Originally Posted by rowdy3

Sxsw and calle ocho festival has been canceled.

That’s not unexpected at all.

In Asia all conferences/seminars have been cancelled over the past month, because those gatherings are where the risk of spread is highest.

In Korea one lady infected hundreds of people by going to church gatherings which has resulted in the now shutting down of the country with thousands infected.

I’ve had to cancel all my trips to Korea, Thailand, Singapore and Australia so far. If it keeps spreading i’ll have to cancel my trips to Europe and USA for next month as well. I’d rather stay home healthy than being out there risking to get a novel virus without cure and spreading it to my family and loved ones.


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[mgsooner]

SXSW is a brutal hit to the local economy. Estimated at over 300 million. It is certainly just the tip of the iceberg. When you think about all of the lower and middle class people who make a big part of their living off of events like this, and their reduced spending as a result, it starts to get pretty scary. The financial ramifications of this are really going to snowball.

[rowdy3]

The nba is considering playing games with no fans.

[Boothroyd]

So is the NCAA.

[padi56]

A few guys in this thread are treading on very very thin ground you know who they are, either cool it now or some will have a instant ban and thread will close, this is the last final warning.And a very very strong suggestion dont argue with any moderator,as you will lose the argument every time. And it will be the last time you ever-lose on forum as it will be your last post on TRF.

[DJ39]

Originally Posted by BNABOD

Never said the numbers of fatalities wasn’t accurate based on whoever is actually diagnosed w covid 19. What I said is that the number of infected people is IMO much greater than the 100k but not diagnosed therefore the 3.4% is inflated not maliciously but inflated nonetheless . Think deeper

The WHO had to weigh the amount of people not diagnosed with the much higher death # divided by people recovered; I think they tried to give an honest assessment at 3.4%

The thing is you cannot look at the number infected, you need to see final case statistics which are incomplete for not having undiagnosed cases but this is offset by looking at recoveries ( not infections); I know it’s confusing


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[mountainjogger]

CDC recommends that those over 60 stay at home as much as possible and/or practice social distancing.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/healt...ing/index.html

Good advice. But not everyone can follow it completely.

My spouse and I are both over 60. But we are both still practicing attorneys. So, it's a balance.

Although we use phone and virtual meetings as much as possible (and have for the past few years), we have to meet with some clients face to face and attend proceedings. But in our private life we try to shop during off hours, etc. And we are trying to replace hand shaking with fist bumping.

I imagine many are in the same boat.

[77T]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

And we are trying to replace hand shaking with fist bumping.

I understand - large-group community transfer will be difficult to avoid here in ATL. Each week thousands fly in for conventions. Airport, MARTA, Hotels and convention center can spread it to employees and local residents.

In the latest cruise ship instance, a single infected passenger (unknown to her) from a prior cruise had left behind enough coronavirus pathogen to infect 17 workers on the ship. Then, they in turn, transferred it to 2 passengers.

In motorsports I can’t really avoid the drivers meetings, F&C meetings and official proceedings. We tend to use as a greeting.

#elbump has also been trending as a safe greeting.

Or should we greet as they will in the future? #LLAP







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[superdog]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

CDC recommends that those over 60 stay at home as much as possible and/or practice social distancing.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/healt...ing/index.html

Good advice. But not everyone can follow it completely.

My spouse and I are both over 60. But we are both still practicing attorneys. So, it's a balance.

Although we use phone and virtual meetings as much as possible (and have for the past few years), we have to meet with some clients face to face and attend proceedings. But in our private life we try to shop during off hours, etc. And we are trying to replace hand shaking with fist bumping.

I imagine many are in the same boat.

Elbow tap for me. No joke.

I’ve even started bowing.

I felt horrible all day yesterday. So I stayed in last night and got some rest. Feel much better this am. I’m hopeful to not get sick.

I wonder what it would be like if the media started tracking the flu. Or cases on adult onset type 2 diabetes.

We design and build distribution centers. We had a verbal on a nice project. But they aren’t getting product from overseas so they put it on hold.

Other customers are ramping up their ability to move product more efficiently and and with less staff. One of my large off price sellers is talking about a massive project because they expect to get super busy.

I am really on the fence with how bad this really is vs how bad we are making it.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by 77T

In motorsports I can’t really avoid the drivers meetings, F&C meetings and official proceedings. We tend to use as a greeting.

#elbump has also been trending as a safe greeting.

Or should we greet as they will in the future? #LLAP







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If it was good enough for Spock it is good enough for me.

Live long and prosper my friend.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by superdog

Elbow tap for me. No joke.

I’ve even started bowing.

I felt horrible all day yesterday. So I stayed in last night and got some rest. Feel much better this am. I’m hopeful to not get sick.

I wonder what it would be like if the media started tracking the flu. Or cases on adult onset type 2 diabetes.

We design and build distribution centers. We had a verbal on a nice project. But they aren’t getting product from overseas so they put it on hold.

Other customers are ramping up their ability to move product more efficiently and and with less staff. One of my large off price sellers is talking about a massive project because they expect to get super busy.

I am really on the fence with how bad this really is vs how bad we are making it.

Glad you feel better Seth.

I am on the fence also. But trying to be careful, because these are still early days. And no one really knows for sure.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Glad you feel better Seth.

I am on the fence also. But trying to be careful, because these are still early days. And no one really knows for sure.

I could not agree more.

Always best to be careful. I’m doing the same. My house is also way stocked up. Wether it’s real or panic, the outcomes could be similar in a lot of ways.

[Art 1]

Originally Posted by superdog

Elbow tap for me. No joke.

I’ve even started bowing.

I felt horrible all day yesterday. So I stayed in last night and got some rest. Feel much better this am. I’m hopeful to not get sick.

I wonder what it would be like if the media started tracking the flu. Or cases on adult onset type 2 diabetes.

We design and build distribution centers. We had a verbal on a nice project. But they aren’t getting product from overseas so they put it on hold.

Other customers are ramping up their ability to move product more efficiently and and with less staff. One of my large off price sellers is talking about a massive project because they expect to get super busy.

I am really on the fence with how bad this really is vs how bad we are making it.

I think we need to do our due diligence by washing hands and so forth. I'm a borderline germaphobe. Won't shake hands while out eating, don't touch door handles, push buttons with my knuckle, wash my hands every half hour and so forth. But I've always don't that.

But I feel that closing these events and canceling things like my meeting is going over board. I don't like others dictating how I live my life and what I do. It's just not in my nature. Eventually the ripple effect in local economies is going to be felt by this. And you don't get back what you lose. I'm very disappointed in the people who are living their lives in fear over what is right now no good reason and that fear effecting the rest of us.

[superdog]

Agree with that too Art. All logical and reality based points.

As I’m feeling better, I’m going to a buddies birthday party tonight. Not living in fear, but certainly being careful.

Little know fact about me. When my dad was having all sorts of heart issues, I became an EMT for just in case. Interestingly enough I actually diagnosed him having a heart attack (wasn’t difficult) and raced him to the hospital potentially saving his life. But I digress.

I learned long ago that washing your hands is by far the best way to avoid sickness. I wash at least 10 times a day.

It always pays to be prudent. But I agree that going overboard can lead to bad things.

Your other post above rings true. It’s a sad fact, but many will perish today from a plethora of different reasons.

And this all likely is nothing. Likely there are hundreds of thousands that have already recovered from this without knowing.

Personally, I think it’s already losing momentum. I think as the cases don’t explode people are losing interest. Before long things will be back to normal.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Art 1

But I feel that closing these events and canceling things like my meeting is going over board. I don't like others dictating how I live my life and what I do. It's just not in my nature. Eventually the ripple effect in local economies is going to be felt by this. And you don't get back what you lose. I'm very disappointed in the people who are living their lives in fear over what is right now no good reason and that fear effecting the rest of us.

The economics, I agree, will affect everyone for perhaps years to come, while the coronavirus itself will affect approximately 20% this year.

I do think FDR said it best, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

But many forget the line that followed...”—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.”

Have to avoid letting this current phase disappoint our overall perspective.



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[Knappo 1307]

Originally Posted by Art 1

I think we need to do our due diligence by washing hands and so forth. I'm a borderline germaphobe. Won't shake hands while out eating, don't touch door handles, push buttons with my knuckle, wash my hands every half hour and so forth. But I've always don't that.

But I feel that closing these events and canceling things like my meeting is going over board. I don't like others dictating how I live my life and what I do. It's just not in my nature. Eventually the ripple effect in local economies is going to be felt by this. And you don't get back what you lose. I'm very disappointed in the people who are living their lives in fear over what is right now no good reason and that fear effecting the rest of us.

Originally Posted by superdog

Agree with that too Art. All logical and reality based points.

As I’m feeling better, I’m going to a buddies birthday party tonight. Not living in fear, but certainly being careful.

Little know fact about me. When my dad was having all sorts of heart issues, I became an EMT for just in case. Interestingly enough I actually diagnosed him having a heart attack (wasn’t difficult) and raced him to the hospital potentially saving his life. But I digress.

I learned long ago that washing your hands is by far the best way to avoid sickness. I wash at least 10 times a day.

It always pays to be prudent. But I agree that going overboard can lead to bad things.

Your other post above rings true. It’s a sad fact, but many will perish today from a plethora of different reasons.

And this all likely is nothing. Likely there are hundreds of thousands that have already recovered from this without knowing.

Personally, I think it’s already losing momentum. I think as the cases don’t explode people are losing interest. Before long things will be back to normal.

Agree with Art and Seth on this 100%. And as Seth said, when it loses momentum there is no fear so the media will toss it aside looking for the next thing to instill fear....

[HL65]

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307

Agree with Art and Seth on this 100%. And as Seth said, when it loses momentum there is no fear so the media will toss it aside looking for the next thing to instill fear....

Concur