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Old 18 March 2020, 03:54 AM   #2431
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I would suspect letting the virus run wild would result in a broken healthcare system AND a global depression.

Sick people can't work. Sick People can't shop, dine and spend money, so when you have more sick people from an uncontrolled infection, you will have less business organically just from the mechanism of the disease.
I agree. I think we need to stay focused on maintaining and building up our Healthcare support systems....this along with slowing the spread is key. IMO
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Old 18 March 2020, 03:58 AM   #2432
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I think you meant dystopian... and we're already here.
I did. Thank you.

And no. We are not even remotely close.

but certainly the possibility of getting there is more real than ever.
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Old 18 March 2020, 04:07 AM   #2433
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I could be wrong, but doesn't the data so far show that very few people, relatively speaking, are actually showing symptoms or experiencing sickness?

And don't get me wrong. I am not saying we should let anything run wild. But I do think a measured, balanced approach is potentially the best path forward.

Clearly, that is not possible at the moment. Clearly people are just trying to figure out any viable path forward. And that makes sense. But a long term solution will need to be found. Or we will slip into a dynastopian future.
Just from casual observation, it seems that the virus will spread alarmingly in cooler and or drier climates such as what you currently see in Italy, Spain, Iran, NE US...etc. Before Italy lockdown the country, the spread was very intense and quickly overwhelmed their healthcare system....so in time, the economy would be wrecked anyway because there would be so many sick that it couldn't function...same as seen in Spain. They let some parade happen and SHTF in the days after....oops.


Now in warmer, humid climates, it seems the virus isn't community spreading as quickly. Philippines, Singapore, HK...humidity over 70% and social distancing really seems to mitigate spread.

I was watching Florida very closely and the numbers were looking promising in terms of spread...then of course spring breakers came down and screwed it all up...so still need distancing, but maybe not as strict as the cooler, drier areas.

Maybe I'm wrong? IDK. The scientists won't come out and say high humidity is going to do the trick....but it kinda seems like it...

Human immune system works a bit better in warm weather and virus don't like humidity....

This Dr Guy talks about it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAHhhweamIU&t=3
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Old 18 March 2020, 04:08 AM   #2434
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I am an optimist. I think the risk is real of a health crisis worldwide like we are seeing in Italy (say a prayer for Italy whenever you can and support them in whatever way possible), but I also believe it is possible, through responsible behavior to flatten the curve and buy time (remember, active cases are dropping in China and S. Korea). Summer can come and help. A vaccine is being tested, and normally would not be approved for 12-18 months. I have faith (but no inside knowledge) that some smart folks will figure out how to make that happen in less than six months. Then, Covid-19 will be just a nasty flu.
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Old 18 March 2020, 04:12 AM   #2435
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Just from casual observation, it seems that the virus will spread alarmingly in cooler and or drier climates such as what you currently see in Italy, Spain, Iran, NE US...etc. Before Italy lockdown the country, the spread was very intense and quickly overwhelmed their healthcare system....so in time, the economy would be wrecked anyway because there would be so many sick that it couldn't function...same as seen in Spain. They let some parade happen and SHTF in the days after....oops.


Now in warmer, humid climates, it seems the virus isn't community spreading as quickly. Philippines, Singapore, HK...humidity over 70% and social distancing really seems to mitigate spread.

I was watching Florida very closely and the numbers were looking promising in terms of spread...then of course spring breakers came down and screwed it all up...so still need distancing, but maybe not as strict as the cooler, drier areas.

Maybe I'm wrong? IDK. The scientists won't come out and say high humidity is going to do the trick....but it kinda seems like it...

Human immune system works a bit better in warm weather and virus don't like humidity....

This Dr Guy talks about it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAHhhweamIU&t=3

I am on a marathon conference call (was supposed to be in Atlanta for it) so I will check it out when I get off.

that said, you bring up a great point.

I have heard a lot of people talking about drinking a lot, or eating a ton, and all sorts of activities that lower the immune system.

is there a narrative out there that is telling people to exercise, get a lot of sleep, drink as much water as possible etc.?

I have not seen it. But that is because I am glued to the CNBC.
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Old 18 March 2020, 04:19 AM   #2436
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I am an optimist. I think the risk is real of a health crisis worldwide like we are seeing in Italy (say a prayer for Italy whenever you can and support them in whatever way possible), but I also believe it is possible, through responsible behavior to flatten the curve and buy time (remember, active cases are dropping in China and S. Korea). Summer can come and help. A vaccine is being tested, and normally would not be approved for 12-18 months. I have faith (but no inside knowledge) that some smart folks will figure out how to make that happen in less than six months. Then, Covid-19 will be just a nasty flu.
Hear hear!
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Old 18 March 2020, 04:22 AM   #2437
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Well this is a product of overpopulation and under preparedness. It was inevitable at some point and likely only the first of many waves in the future. So what to do? What's the best strategy? Shut things down and shelter in place until a global depression sets in? Let it run wild until the dust settles? Both are likely to end the same way with societal breakdown and destruction.

Too bleak for you???

Then a middle of the road between these 2 strategies may be the only way to go. Public policy that protects the high risk groups balanced with a close to normal life for the rest of the population. Limited access hours for high risk population to necessary public areas like grocery stores and Pharmacies. The rest of the time is open to all.

For low risk people you get it, get over it and go on. For high risk groups you protect yourself the best you can until we develop a medicinal solution even if it takes a few years. Some will make it and some won't.

Welcome to the future

Thank You China!!!!!
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Old 18 March 2020, 04:25 AM   #2438
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I am on a marathon conference call (was supposed to be in Atlanta for it) so I will check it out when I get off.

that said, you bring up a great point.

I have heard a lot of people talking about drinking a lot, or eating a ton, and all sorts of activities that lower the immune system.

is there a narrative out there that is telling people to exercise, get a lot of sleep, drink as much water as possible etc.?

I have not seen it. But that is because I am glued to the CNBC.
I am sure your hypothesis can only help your odds. Plenty of fluids, reasonable amount of exercise (not out in a public gym) and healthy amount of sleep certainly shouldn't make you more vulnerable if I had to take a guess. We have been doing all of these things the last few days along with drinking a lot of non-caffeinated herbal teas throughout the day (e.g., instead of afternoon coffee, after dinner).
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Old 18 March 2020, 04:26 AM   #2439
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Well this is a product of overpopulation and under preparedness. It was inevitable at some point and likely only the first of many waves in the future. So what to do? What's the best strategy? Shut things down and shelter in place until a global depression sets in? Let it run wild until the dust settles? Both are likely to end the same way with societal breakdown and destruction.



Too bleak for you???



Then a middle of the road between these 2 strategies may be the only way to go. Public policy that protects the high risk groups balanced with a close to normal life for the rest of the population. Limited access hours for high risk population to necessary public areas like grocery stores and Pharmacies. The rest of the time is open to all.



For low risk people you get it, get over it and go on. For high risk groups you protect yourself the best you can until we develop a medicinal solution even if it takes a few years. Some will make it and some won't.



Welcome to the future



Thank You China!!!!!


This middle ground seems to the UKís chosen route so far.


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Old 18 March 2020, 04:31 AM   #2440
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I am sure your hypothesis can only help your odds. Plenty of fluids, reasonable amount of exercise (not out in a public gym) and healthy amount of sleep certainly shouldn't make you more vulnerable if I had to take a guess. We have been doing all of these things the last few days along with drinking a lot of non-caffeinated herbal teas throughout the day (e.g., instead of afternoon coffee, after dinner).

glad to hear you are doing this. I really don't see many people talking about it. which is weird to me on most days. but now even more so. I wonder if all the worried people are drowning their worries in booze or junk food. I wonder if they are moving around a little and exercising. I wonder if they are taking their vitamins and eating fruits and vegetables.

my wife is a health nut. I am reasonably healthy. but I do like to drink and this has been a great excuse, as I am normally very measured.

she gave me a heap of crap last night and she is right.

I take care of myself very well in most things. but I am going to kick it into high gear.

more yoga. more mediation. more water. more black coffee and more sleep. less booze.
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Old 18 March 2020, 04:39 AM   #2441
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What seems bonkers about our approach in the U.K. is that all non-essentials should be discontinued and social distancing exercised........but schools remain open!

Seems contradictory to me.


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Old 18 March 2020, 04:41 AM   #2442
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I stopped going to the Gym last week, I found that exercise kept my breathing going. I live in the country and will take walks very early on a morning and I just bought a Concept II rower. I need to have some sort of structure otherwise my wellbeing will be affected.

I am luckier than some, I can get out into fields and live in a most beautiful part of England. Those living in urban areas and hi rise flats are the people I feel sorry for.
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Old 18 March 2020, 04:45 AM   #2443
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In keeping to the theory that hot and humid weather kill or slow down the spread of the virus .....Harris county (Houston) has 13 cases and 5 of those were traced back to a women who went to Egypt on a trip and changed planes in Italy the last day of Feb.
The 6 counties that make up greater Houston has 36 cases with one death a 80 year old women in Galveston.
For the size of of this area ....almost 7 million people 36 cases in low compared with other northern (cooler) cities.....and its steamy today!
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Old 18 March 2020, 04:52 AM   #2444
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In keeping to the theory that hot and humid weather kill or slow down the spread of the virus .....Harris county (Houston) has 13 cases and 5 of those were traced back to a women who went to Egypt on a trip and changed planes in Italy the last day of Feb.
The 6 counties that make up greater Houston has 36 cases with one death a 80 year old women in Galveston.
For the size of of this area ....almost 7 million people 36 cases in low compared with other northern (cooler) cities.....and its steamy today!
curious?

are you eating healthy and taking vitamins etc. ?

are you keeping your immune system up as much as possible?
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Old 18 March 2020, 04:56 AM   #2445
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I am on a marathon conference call (was supposed to be in Atlanta for it) so I will check it out when I get off.

that said, you bring up a great point.

I have heard a lot of people talking about drinking a lot, or eating a ton, and all sorts of activities that lower the immune system.

is there a narrative out there that is telling people to exercise, get a lot of sleep, drink as much water as possible etc.?

I have not seen it. But that is because I am glued to the CNBC.
They closed our community gym and fitness is important to me, so I just bought a slam ball and will be taking that with me everywhere I go.

I went for a run this morning and had to use the children's playground to do pull-ups and other things. Heavy washing of hands after, of course.
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Old 18 March 2020, 05:04 AM   #2446
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curious?

are you eating healthy and taking vitamins etc. ?

are you keeping your immune system up as much as possible?
im 62 one heart attack and diabetes.....im in poor health....need a cane or walker to get around.....
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Old 18 March 2020, 05:13 AM   #2447
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I agree. I think we need to stay focused on maintaining and building up our Healthcare support systems....this along with slowing the spread is key. IMO
Poverty due to broken economies has killed more people in the history of mankind than any virus has.

We need to work on both at the same time IMHO.
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Old 18 March 2020, 05:17 AM   #2448
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I stopped going to the Gym last week, I found that exercise kept my breathing going. I live in the country and will take walks very early on a morning and I just bought a Concept II rower. I need to have some sort of structure otherwise my wellbeing will be affected.

I am luckier than some, I can get out into fields and live in a most beautiful part of England. Those living in urban areas and hi rise flats are the people I feel sorry for.
Nice, Dave. I have a Concept 2 as well, hell of a workout... Please watch some videos on how to row properly with good form, it's mostly in the legs (as opposed to arms).
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Old 18 March 2020, 05:20 AM   #2449
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Poverty due to broken economies has killed more people in the history of mankind than any virus has.

We need to work on both at the same time IMHO.
I agree with this. Poverty in the wake of deep recessions and/or depressions can have a devastating mortality rate of its own. There is a balancing act at play here. Saving millions from Covid 19 but condemning even more millions to a different death from a different cause is not the answer. There are no easy answers here.
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Old 18 March 2020, 05:23 AM   #2450
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Nice, Dave. I have a Concept 2 as well, hell of a workout... Please watch some videos on how to row properly with good form, it's mostly in the legs (as opposed to arms).
Thank you very much my friend, I certainly will take your advice. It arrives Friday.
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Old 18 March 2020, 05:29 AM   #2451
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They closed our community gym and fitness is important to me, so I just bought a slam ball and will be taking that with me everywhere I go.
Keep your ball clean!
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Old 18 March 2020, 05:33 AM   #2452
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I agree with this. Poverty in the wake of deep recessions and/or depressions can have a devastating mortality rate of its own. There is a balancing act at play here. Saving millions from Covid 19 but condemning even more millions to a different death from a different cause is not the answer. There are no easy answers here.
Thank you for that. I completely agree. We need to work on both of these things equally. I cannot speak for England but I know in the United States 50% or more of the country lives paycheck to paycheck. I wonder if we sometimes forget that here.
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Old 18 March 2020, 05:37 AM   #2453
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I stopped going to the Gym last week, I found that exercise kept my breathing going. I live in the country and will take walks very early on a morning and I just bought a Concept II rower. I need to have some sort of structure otherwise my wellbeing will be affected.

I am luckier than some, I can get out into fields and live in a most beautiful part of England. Those living in urban areas and hi rise flats are the people I feel sorry for.
Is my room ready Dave?
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Old 18 March 2020, 05:38 AM   #2454
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This middle ground seems to the UKís chosen route so far.


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Netherlands as well.

Even though I am in the low risk group at age 25, strong and healthy, I still don't like the chance of getting permanent lung damage... I will do my best to try and avoid this disease...
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Old 18 March 2020, 05:43 AM   #2455
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Is my room ready Dave?
Of course my friend. Mind, it may not be up to the size you are accustomed, my 2 up 2 down house is a nearly 300 year old cottage that was a servants cottage for a country house (think Downton Abbey), it is tiny, but we love it.

The village where I live is just below here;

Not my photo.

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Old 18 March 2020, 05:46 AM   #2456
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Of course my friend. Mind, it may not be up to the size you are accustomed, my 2 up 2 down house is a nearly 300 year old cottage that was a servants cottage for a country house (think Downton Abbey), it is tiny, but we love it.
Dave, I live on the beach in La Jolla California... Although it is very nice and I love it a shoebox would be a step up in size. Your place is a mansion compared to mine.

Iíll start shipping my stuff out.
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Old 18 March 2020, 05:47 AM   #2457
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Thank you for that. I completely agree. We need to work on both of these things equally. I cannot speak for England but I know in the United States 50% or more of the country lives paycheck to paycheck. I wonder if we sometimes forget that here.
This is certainly important - maintaining peopleís livelihoods and small business is important through all of this, doesnít matter what country. The real deal is that the entire planet is going to take a financial hit, thatís inevitable. But we need to make sure those who are struggling to begin with have adequate resources through this to prevent even further chaos.

Bottom line though is this virus needs to be controlled/dealt with.

Iím a physician and believe me this is some scary sh*t, for young and old.
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Old 18 March 2020, 06:08 AM   #2458
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curious?

are you eating healthy and taking vitamins etc. ?

are you keeping your immune system up as much as possible?
Houston is one of the fattest cities in our Great Nation.
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Old 18 March 2020, 06:13 AM   #2459
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im 62 one heart attack and diabetes.....im in poor health....need a cane or walker to get around.....
are you eating well?

getting rest?

are you actively trying to boost your immune system?
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Old 18 March 2020, 06:18 AM   #2460
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Houston is one of the fattest cities in our Great Nation.
I dont see it but I dont get out much anyway....we moved here 12 years ago.
Yes...im about 20 pounds to fat at 221 pounds but im 6'2 and dont look that fat....I would like to get back to 200 pounds not being able to walk from arthritis i dont see much hope.
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