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Old 20 March 2020, 03:00 AM   #2791
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Please don't paint an unnecessarily gloomy picture. The virus is most severe for people who are past the age when they do anything for the economy. It is relatively rare for young healthy people to perish from this, so I have no worries about there being people left to vitalize the economy.
40% of cases serious enough to require hospitalization are for people aged 20-54.
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Old 20 March 2020, 03:00 AM   #2792
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The virus can potentially be defeated with relatively little mortality associated with the disease itself. However in order to achieve that, countries will essentially need to shut down their economies for [pluck a round number out the air] a year, possibly enforce isolation/curfews and wait for a cure or vaccine, however long that takes. Or if you follow the Imperial study rationale, pulsed shutdowns that will economically be nearly as damaging. The unknown here is what the mortality associated with such economic catastrophe would be.

The other end of the extreme is to effectively let the virus do its thing, causing the least disruption to the economy, at least from a duration standpoint but causing the death of a very large number of people. Again, the mortality associated with this course of action is unknown but we do at least have projections based on the data we have.

What would be interesting would be a study looking at possible mortality outcomes resulting from a profound economic depression associated with the shutdown option. I have no idea how such a thing could be accomplished or how credible the conclusions might be.

Otherwise I‘m not sure it’s possible to know for sure or even to guess which approach will be the least costly, or if a compromise somewhere in between is best.
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Old 20 March 2020, 03:03 AM   #2793
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Some of the comments in this thread are just obscene.

Thank you for the service that you've provided in the past; I hope that you and your family are doing well.
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Your statement here is inflammatory to many....retired people/of older age contribute in a multitude of ways to enhance economies....in seen, and unseen ways

It’s just a matter of opening your eyes....and mind....
In this thread its sadly revealing that some members here only care about their wallets more than the lives of others. It's like hedge fund managers trying to talk up their portfolio, they only have their own agenda and best interest in mind trying to influence others to think the same way.

The previous generations built and established what we are enjoying today. My parents never had full stomachs when they were kids but they made sure that I had a life that they couldn't ever have. Posts like that are sickening to see. They're old and useless let them die as long as our wallets are nice and fat it doesn't matter
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Old 20 March 2020, 03:05 AM   #2794
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40% of cases serious enough to require hospitalization are for people aged 20-54.
Yes, but the vast majority of those will get better. The problem is the massive strain on the healthcare system while this crisis is at it's peak. I have no worries about there being enough people left to support a productive and prosperous society once this is all over.
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Old 20 March 2020, 03:09 AM   #2795
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I guess those of us who worked and raised families and built businesses and delivered healthcare for decades in order to pass it on to the next generation are expendable. Iím glad you donít feel any doom or gloom thinking of all of us who are ďpast the age when they do anything for the economyĒ dying a horrible death from the virus.
We are all going to die, me, you and everyone else. I am pleased to say that I am perfectly expendable and the people who are left are perfectly capable of maintaining a prosperous world.

I just don't like the notion that this virus is somehow capable of wiping out productive economies over the long term and there will somehow not be enough people left to keep things going. That is totally incorrect.
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Old 20 March 2020, 03:34 AM   #2796
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Dave Iíve gotten quite fond of you over this past couple weeks and I donít wish to sound unappreciative but if the New York Times assured me the sun was going to rise in the morning Iíd be quite confident the planet was going to die that evening.



Anyway I did look at your link and it said 2.2 million dead worst case scenario. Thatís 400,000 more than what I thought it was.



I must assume by your post your choice would be option B.



Peace to you my friend.


Not taking any sides about newspapers and reporting, but the NYT article based its reporting on a source study that appears at this link:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

The number of 2.2 million appears on page 7 of the pdf.

I canít validate any of the assumptions in the primary research that the authors cited. Just not enough hours in the day.






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Old 20 March 2020, 03:41 AM   #2797
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In this thread its sadly revealing that some members here only care about their wallets more than the lives of others. It's like hedge fund managers trying to talk up their portfolio, they only have their own agenda and best interest in mind trying to influence others to think the same way.

The previous generations built and established what we are enjoying today. My parents never had full stomachs when they were kids but they made sure that I had a life that they couldn't ever have. Posts like that are sickening to see. They're old and useless let them die as long as our wallets are nice and fat it doesn't matter
An incredibly offensive statement and most importantly assumption. However if an unsubstantiated lecture makes you feel better or superior have at it. Itís not helpful and doesnít add anything here.
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Old 20 March 2020, 03:42 AM   #2798
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Not taking any sides about newspapers and reporting, but the NYT article based its reporting on a source study that appears at this link:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

The number of 2.2 million appears on page 7 of the pdf.

I canít validate any of the assumptions in the primary research that the authors cited. Just not enough hours in the day.



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I have no doubt that in this case that is true.
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Old 20 March 2020, 03:46 AM   #2799
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I have no doubt that in this case that is true.
you crack me up
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Old 20 March 2020, 03:48 AM   #2800
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In this thread its sadly revealing that some members here only care about their wallets more than the lives of others. It's like hedge fund managers trying to talk up their portfolio, they only have their own agenda and best interest in mind trying to influence others to think the same way.

The previous generations built and established what we are enjoying today. My parents never had full stomachs when they were kids but they made sure that I had a life that they couldn't ever have. Posts like that are sickening to see. They're old and useless let them die as long as our wallets are nice and fat it doesn't matter
You joined the forum this month to lecture us I see.
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Old 20 March 2020, 03:51 AM   #2801
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It is possible to be realistic about the seriousness of all this whole still optimistic about the long term.

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Old 20 March 2020, 03:52 AM   #2802
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you crack me up
Thank you. Itís all good. :-)
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Old 20 March 2020, 03:55 AM   #2803
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An interesting article regarding statistics, if anyone is interested:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/
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Old 20 March 2020, 03:59 AM   #2804
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Please don't paint an unnecessarily gloomy picture. The virus is most severe for people who are past the age when they do anything for the economy. It is relatively rare for young healthy people to perish from this, so I have no worries about there being people left to vitalize the economy.
Probably the most stupid thing I've read in a long time. Congrats....
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Old 20 March 2020, 04:05 AM   #2805
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An interesting article regarding statistics, if anyone is interested:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/


It is an interesting read. Thanks for posting it.

Recalls the old interview question: ďTell Me About a Time When You Had to Make a Decision But Didnít Have All the Data NeededĒ.

We will lack certainty for a while methinks.


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Old 20 March 2020, 04:14 AM   #2806
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That's at least how it feels in my office right now. Trying hard and hoping it's right
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Old 20 March 2020, 04:20 AM   #2807
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You joined the forum this month to lecture us I see.
I just find it ridiculous that people are playing this off as some sort of joke saying its "overblown" people are "overreacting" it's all "media hype" I have family that are on the front lines fighting this war in front of our very eyes. Hospitals are short of N95 masks, there is a shortage of respirators, and hospital beds. We have no vaccine as of now. We aren't seeing high death numbers yet because we haven't crippled the health care system yet but we are coming close. Pretty soon doctors have to literally choose who gets to live and who gets to die.

The construction industry are donating their N95s to the healthcare industry in order to keep our first responders safe and healthy and we are still under supplied. Everyone that treats this virus as a joke is putting our first responders, their families, and everyone in the country at further risk. We have seen what negligence can result in right now with the situation in Europe where the UK has pretty much given up, Swiss healthcare system about to be overrun, Italy posting record deaths everyday.

The economy is secondary to public health as of the moment because what's the point of it if we don't have people alive and healthy to support it. We are months away from a proper vaccine that can be mass produced and the best we can do right now is to minimize the damage and slow it down until we can treat it properly. Media hype does not shut down entire cities. I do agree there are some unnecessary panic right now but look at also the people who seem to look at it as if its a joke like the spring breakers down in Florida. They're going to go home and just cause mass spread of the virus.
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Old 20 March 2020, 04:23 AM   #2808
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Maui is now officially shutting down to discourage people from coming here. Yesterday the Mayor asked people to cancel their travel plans and today some roads like the road to Hana will be closing to residents only. Almost all stores are closed and restaurants are takeout only.
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Old 20 March 2020, 04:23 AM   #2809
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I just find it ridiculous that people are playing this off as some sort of joke saying its "overblown" people are "overreacting" it's all "media hype" I have family that are on the front lines fighting this war in front of our very eyes. Hospitals are short of N95 masks, there is a shortage of respirators, and hospital beds. We have no vaccine as of now. We aren't seeing high death numbers yet because we haven't crippled the health care system yet but we are coming close. Pretty soon doctors have to literally choose who gets to live and who gets to die.

The construction industry are donating their N95s to the healthcare industry in order to keep our first responders safe and healthy and we are still under supplied. Everyone that treats this virus as a joke is putting our first responders, their families, and everyone in the country at further risk. We have seen what negligence can result in right now with the situation in Europe where the UK has pretty much given up, Swiss healthcare system about to be overrun, Italy posting record deaths everyday.

The economy is secondary to public health as of the moment because what's the point of it if we don't have people alive and healthy to support it. We are months away from a proper vaccine that can be mass produced and the best we can do right now is to minimize the damage and slow it down until we can treat it properly.

I beg to differ on your opinion of the U.K. having given up.....


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Old 20 March 2020, 04:27 AM   #2810
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I beg to differ on your opinion of the U.K. having given up.....
Yes, so do I. Very uninformed.
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Old 20 March 2020, 04:33 AM   #2811
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Pretty soon doctors have to literally choose who gets to live and who gets to die.
Yes, it depends where you are and how well authorities have handled this from the start. In some countries the situation is already so bad that doctors have to choose who to treat and who not to treat.

It is regrettable that this was not taken seriously sooner, such as when Wuhan had to be locked down. At that stage the writing was pretty much on the wall, there was nothing stopping people travelling all over the world and spreading this virus.

It is remarkable that some countries have gone from a stage of being in denial to a state of total lock down in a very short space of time.
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Old 20 March 2020, 04:42 AM   #2812
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the UK has pretty much given up
I see you are self isolating yourself from facts and reality.
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Old 20 March 2020, 04:45 AM   #2813
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I beg to differ on your opinion of the U.K. having given up.....


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Yes, so do I. Very uninformed.
If I have been misinformed then I apologize. I was under the impression that UK was embracing a herd immunity approach. How is the situation over there for you guys?
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Old 20 March 2020, 04:48 AM   #2814
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Just out of curiosity have you ever seen what the elderly endure in extremely impoverished countries with no economy??? It ain’t pretty.
Yes. Your solution....or “GRAND IDEA”? Please elaborate....
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Old 20 March 2020, 04:49 AM   #2815
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Yes, so do I. Very uninformed.
Yes, it is bad. But that guy is into drama..."front lines" "war" UK "given up", etc. best to allow him to write his novel on his own...
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Old 20 March 2020, 04:50 AM   #2816
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If I have been misinformed then I apologize. I was under the impression that UK was embracing a herd immunity approach. How is the situation over there for you guys?
The Herd strategy was kicked into touch some time ago, all those over 70 and those with underlying conditions have been asked to self quarantine. I have done this, schools have shut and towns are quite dead, tbh. London seems to be heeding the advice given from the PM and experts and staying away, at long last.

My opinion, this is so serious, last week seems about 10 years ago.
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Old 20 March 2020, 04:53 AM   #2817
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It is remarkable that some countries have gone from a stage of being in denial to a state of total lock down in a very short space of time.
Some people will complain about the lack of response but almost every country has almost been shutdown and citizens in some form of lockdown, in a pretty short time, considering what is at stake, with the economy, jobs etc on one side and a pandemic on the other.

No matter what happens here, it will definitely help us when a pandemic hits that actually is fatal to almost everyone, which some people have been predicting for some time.
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Old 20 March 2020, 04:55 AM   #2818
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The Herd strategy was kicked into touch some time ago, all those over 70 and those with underlying conditions have been asked to self quarantine. I have done this, schools have shut and towns are quite dead, tbh. London seems to be heeding the advice given from the PM and experts and staying away, at long last.

My opinion, this is so serious, last week seems about 10 years ago.
That is great to hear. Stay safe and healthy out there
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Old 20 March 2020, 04:58 AM   #2819
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As for herd immunity, I think Denmark has taken that approach,taking care of those most at risk as much as possible. They may be right...apparently isolating for a few weeks will only put off the inevitable...then again, I am no doctor.
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Old 20 March 2020, 05:01 AM   #2820
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Thank you for letting me know that I, as a 70 year old retiree, contribute nothing to the economy. I shall, therefore, consider myself worthless and expendable, and shall neither seek nor accept any medical treatment for any future illness from any source, viral or otherwise.
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