the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[SMD]

Originally Posted by Seibei

Please don't paint an unnecessarily gloomy picture. The virus is most severe for people who are past the age when they do anything for the economy. It is relatively rare for young healthy people to perish from this, so I have no worries about there being people left to vitalize the economy.

40% of cases serious enough to require hospitalization are for people aged 20-54.

[Zakalwe]

The virus can potentially be defeated with relatively little mortality associated with the disease itself. However in order to achieve that, countries will essentially need to shut down their economies for [pluck a round number out the air] a year, possibly enforce isolation/curfews and wait for a cure or vaccine, however long that takes. Or if you follow the Imperial study rationale, pulsed shutdowns that will economically be nearly as damaging. The unknown here is what the mortality associated with such economic catastrophe would be.

The other end of the extreme is to effectively let the virus do its thing, causing the least disruption to the economy, at least from a duration standpoint but causing the death of a very large number of people. Again, the mortality associated with this course of action is unknown but we do at least have projections based on the data we have.

What would be interesting would be a study looking at possible mortality outcomes resulting from a profound economic depression associated with the shutdown option. I have no idea how such a thing could be accomplished or how credible the conclusions might be.

Otherwise I‘m not sure it’s possible to know for sure or even to guess which approach will be the least costly, or if a compromise somewhere in between is best.

[RWH]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Some of the comments in this thread are just obscene.

Thank you for the service that you've provided in the past; I hope that you and your family are doing well.

Originally Posted by djgallo

Your statement here is inflammatory to many....retired people/of older age contribute in a multitude of ways to enhance economies....in seen, and unseen ways

It’s just a matter of opening your eyes....and mind....

In this thread its sadly revealing that some members here only care about their wallets more than the lives of others. It's like hedge fund managers trying to talk up their portfolio, they only have their own agenda and best interest in mind trying to influence others to think the same way.

The previous generations built and established what we are enjoying today. My parents never had full stomachs when they were kids but they made sure that I had a life that they couldn't ever have. Posts like that are sickening to see. They're old and useless let them die as long as our wallets are nice and fat it doesn't matter

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by SMD

40% of cases serious enough to require hospitalization are for people aged 20-54.

Yes, but the vast majority of those will get better. The problem is the massive strain on the healthcare system while this crisis is at it's peak. I have no worries about there being enough people left to support a productive and prosperous society once this is all over.

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

I guess those of us who worked and raised families and built businesses and delivered healthcare for decades in order to pass it on to the next generation are expendable. I’m glad you don’t feel any doom or gloom thinking of all of us who are “past the age when they do anything for the economy” dying a horrible death from the virus.

We are all going to die, me, you and everyone else. I am pleased to say that I am perfectly expendable and the people who are left are perfectly capable of maintaining a prosperous world.

I just don't like the notion that this virus is somehow capable of wiping out productive economies over the long term and there will somehow not be enough people left to keep things going. That is totally incorrect.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Dave I’ve gotten quite fond of you over this past couple weeks and I don’t wish to sound unappreciative but if the New York Times assured me the sun was going to rise in the morning I’d be quite confident the planet was going to die that evening.



Anyway I did look at your link and it said 2.2 million dead worst case scenario. That’s 400,000 more than what I thought it was.



I must assume by your post your choice would be option B.



Peace to you my friend.

Not taking any sides about newspapers and reporting, but the NYT article based its reporting on a source study that appears at this link:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

The number of 2.2 million appears on page 7 of the pdf.

I can’t validate any of the assumptions in the primary research that the authors cited. Just not enough hours in the day.






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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by RWH

In this thread its sadly revealing that some members here only care about their wallets more than the lives of others. It's like hedge fund managers trying to talk up their portfolio, they only have their own agenda and best interest in mind trying to influence others to think the same way.

The previous generations built and established what we are enjoying today. My parents never had full stomachs when they were kids but they made sure that I had a life that they couldn't ever have. Posts like that are sickening to see. They're old and useless let them die as long as our wallets are nice and fat it doesn't matter

An incredibly offensive statement and most importantly assumption. However if an unsubstantiated lecture makes you feel better or superior have at it. It’s not helpful and doesn’t add anything here.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by 77T

Not taking any sides about newspapers and reporting, but the NYT article based its reporting on a source study that appears at this link:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

The number of 2.2 million appears on page 7 of the pdf.

I can’t validate any of the assumptions in the primary research that the authors cited. Just not enough hours in the day.



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I have no doubt that in this case that is true.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by Patton250

I have no doubt that in this case that is true.

you crack me up

[MichaelFlash]

Originally Posted by RWH

In this thread its sadly revealing that some members here only care about their wallets more than the lives of others. It's like hedge fund managers trying to talk up their portfolio, they only have their own agenda and best interest in mind trying to influence others to think the same way.

The previous generations built and established what we are enjoying today. My parents never had full stomachs when they were kids but they made sure that I had a life that they couldn't ever have. Posts like that are sickening to see. They're old and useless let them die as long as our wallets are nice and fat it doesn't matter

You joined the forum this month to lecture us I see.

[zengineer]

It is possible to be realistic about the seriousness of all this whole still optimistic about the long term.

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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by gnuyork

you crack me up

Thank you. It’s all good. :-)

[ROlesorusLEX]

An interesting article regarding statistics, if anyone is interested:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/

[Knappo 1307]

Originally Posted by Seibei

Please don't paint an unnecessarily gloomy picture. The virus is most severe for people who are past the age when they do anything for the economy. It is relatively rare for young healthy people to perish from this, so I have no worries about there being people left to vitalize the economy.

Probably the most stupid thing I've read in a long time. Congrats....

[77T]

Originally Posted by ROlesorusLEX

An interesting article regarding statistics, if anyone is interested:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/

It is an interesting read. Thanks for posting it.

Recalls the old interview question: “Tell Me About a Time When You Had to Make a Decision But Didn’t Have All the Data Needed”.

We will lack certainty for a while methinks.


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[ROlesorusLEX]

That's at least how it feels in my office right now. Trying hard and hoping it's right

[RWH]

Originally Posted by MichaelFlash

You joined the forum this month to lecture us I see.

I just find it ridiculous that people are playing this off as some sort of joke saying its "overblown" people are "overreacting" it's all "media hype" I have family that are on the front lines fighting this war in front of our very eyes. Hospitals are short of N95 masks, there is a shortage of respirators, and hospital beds. We have no vaccine as of now. We aren't seeing high death numbers yet because we haven't crippled the health care system yet but we are coming close. Pretty soon doctors have to literally choose who gets to live and who gets to die.

The construction industry are donating their N95s to the healthcare industry in order to keep our first responders safe and healthy and we are still under supplied. Everyone that treats this virus as a joke is putting our first responders, their families, and everyone in the country at further risk. We have seen what negligence can result in right now with the situation in Europe where the UK has pretty much given up, Swiss healthcare system about to be overrun, Italy posting record deaths everyday.

The economy is secondary to public health as of the moment because what's the point of it if we don't have people alive and healthy to support it. We are months away from a proper vaccine that can be mass produced and the best we can do right now is to minimize the damage and slow it down until we can treat it properly. Media hype does not shut down entire cities. I do agree there are some unnecessary panic right now but look at also the people who seem to look at it as if its a joke like the spring breakers down in Florida. They're going to go home and just cause mass spread of the virus.

[Blansky]

Maui is now officially shutting down to discourage people from coming here. Yesterday the Mayor asked people to cancel their travel plans and today some roads like the road to Hana will be closing to residents only. Almost all stores are closed and restaurants are takeout only.

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by RWH

I just find it ridiculous that people are playing this off as some sort of joke saying its "overblown" people are "overreacting" it's all "media hype" I have family that are on the front lines fighting this war in front of our very eyes. Hospitals are short of N95 masks, there is a shortage of respirators, and hospital beds. We have no vaccine as of now. We aren't seeing high death numbers yet because we haven't crippled the health care system yet but we are coming close. Pretty soon doctors have to literally choose who gets to live and who gets to die.

The construction industry are donating their N95s to the healthcare industry in order to keep our first responders safe and healthy and we are still under supplied. Everyone that treats this virus as a joke is putting our first responders, their families, and everyone in the country at further risk. We have seen what negligence can result in right now with the situation in Europe where the UK has pretty much given up, Swiss healthcare system about to be overrun, Italy posting record deaths everyday.

The economy is secondary to public health as of the moment because what's the point of it if we don't have people alive and healthy to support it. We are months away from a proper vaccine that can be mass produced and the best we can do right now is to minimize the damage and slow it down until we can treat it properly.

I beg to differ on your opinion of the U.K. having given up.....


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[daveathall]

Originally Posted by Moggo

I beg to differ on your opinion of the U.K. having given up.....

Yes, so do I. Very uninformed.

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by RWH

Pretty soon doctors have to literally choose who gets to live and who gets to die.

Yes, it depends where you are and how well authorities have handled this from the start. In some countries the situation is already so bad that doctors have to choose who to treat and who not to treat.

It is regrettable that this was not taken seriously sooner, such as when Wuhan had to be locked down. At that stage the writing was pretty much on the wall, there was nothing stopping people travelling all over the world and spreading this virus.

It is remarkable that some countries have gone from a stage of being in denial to a state of total lock down in a very short space of time.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by RWH

the UK has pretty much given up

I see you are self isolating yourself from facts and reality.

[RWH]

Originally Posted by Moggo

I beg to differ on your opinion of the U.K. having given up.....


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Originally Posted by daveathall

Yes, so do I. Very uninformed.

If I have been misinformed then I apologize. I was under the impression that UK was embracing a herd immunity approach. How is the situation over there for you guys?

[djgallo]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Just out of curiosity have you ever seen what the elderly endure in extremely impoverished countries with no economy??? It ain’t pretty.

Yes. Your solution....or “GRAND IDEA”? Please elaborate....

[MichaelFlash]

Originally Posted by daveathall

Yes, so do I. Very uninformed.

Yes, it is bad. But that guy is into drama..."front lines" "war" UK "given up", etc. best to allow him to write his novel on his own...

[daveathall]

Originally Posted by RWH

If I have been misinformed then I apologize. I was under the impression that UK was embracing a herd immunity approach. How is the situation over there for you guys?

The Herd strategy was kicked into touch some time ago, all those over 70 and those with underlying conditions have been asked to self quarantine. I have done this, schools have shut and towns are quite dead, tbh. London seems to be heeding the advice given from the PM and experts and staying away, at long last.

My opinion, this is so serious, last week seems about 10 years ago.

[Blansky]

Originally Posted by Seibei

It is remarkable that some countries have gone from a stage of being in denial to a state of total lock down in a very short space of time.

Some people will complain about the lack of response but almost every country has almost been shutdown and citizens in some form of lockdown, in a pretty short time, considering what is at stake, with the economy, jobs etc on one side and a pandemic on the other.

No matter what happens here, it will definitely help us when a pandemic hits that actually is fatal to almost everyone, which some people have been predicting for some time.

[RWH]

Originally Posted by daveathall

The Herd strategy was kicked into touch some time ago, all those over 70 and those with underlying conditions have been asked to self quarantine. I have done this, schools have shut and towns are quite dead, tbh. London seems to be heeding the advice given from the PM and experts and staying away, at long last.

My opinion, this is so serious, last week seems about 10 years ago.

That is great to hear. Stay safe and healthy out there

[MichaelFlash]

As for herd immunity, I think Denmark has taken that approach,taking care of those most at risk as much as possible. They may be right...apparently isolating for a few weeks will only put off the inevitable...then again, I am no doctor.

[Jona]

Thank you for letting me know that I, as a 70 year old retiree, contribute nothing to the economy. I shall, therefore, consider myself worthless and expendable, and shall neither seek nor accept any medical treatment for any future illness from any source, viral or otherwise.