How out of control is the Patek flipping situation?

[soundserious]

Patek had a record 2019. Nobody cares.

[martinr]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Someone here mentioned in the past that they erase the name with an eraser...

Those must sell like hot cakes. Counterfeit papers anyone?

[321Forever]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Because that $25k watch is going for $15k-$20k higher on the secondary market, and I can buy two watches for the price of one instead?

Obviously I know that I don't need to tell you or other this, so I mean no disrespect, but we won't stay well-off by burning our money in an artificially inflated market.

Agreed. And it’s more like $30K more. I think we’re talking about rich person’s problems. Lol.

And even with cash, I know plenty of folks who don’t want to go this route.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by jakemeister

Agreed. And it’s more like $30K more. I think we’re talking about rich person’s problems. Lol.

And even with cash, I know plenty of folks who don’t want to go this route.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by soundserious

Patek had a record 2019. Nobody cares.

People care.

Having a record year of sales / profits doesn't absolve your responsibility as a long-term business manager to ensure the viability of your brand.

They care. They just don't care enough to take enough action to satisfy us here in this thread.

[321Forever]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

People care.

Having a record year of sales / profits doesn't absolve your responsibility as a long-term business manager to ensure the viability of your brand.

They care. They just don't care enough to take enough action to satisfy us here in this thread.

[YYR]

Facts:
A. Patek knows what’s going on
B. They want everyone to think that they care, and that they track down AD’s that don’t follow the rules (and it’s working, the evidence is in this thread)
C. That dealer that got the 5711 bought and sold five calatravas from Europe or Africa or who knows where, shipped it halfway across the world and put it on a buyers wrist in some far flung location
D. Patek is perfectly fine with that middle man that gets their watches onto people’s wrists, as long as it doesn’t affect the perceived value of their brand
F. Everyone here is falling for this
G. If your unhappy then buy Lange GS and many other great brands

[Yk101]

Originally Posted by YYR

Facts:
A. Patek knows what’s going on
B. They want everyone to think that they care, and that they track down AD’s that don’t follow the rules (and it’s working, the evidence is in this thread)
C. That dealer that got the 5711 bought and sold five calatravas from Europe or Africa or who knows where, shipped it halfway across the world and put it on a buyers wrist in some far flung location
D. Patek is perfectly fine with that middle man that gets their watches onto people’s wrists, as long as it doesn’t affect the perceived value of their brand
F. Everyone here is falling for this
G. If your unhappy then buy Lange GS and many other great brands

Amen!

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by YYR

Facts:
A. Patek knows what’s going on
B. They want everyone to think that they care, and that they track down AD’s that don’t follow the rules (and it’s working, the evidence is in this thread)
C. That dealer that got the 5711 bought and sold five calatravas from Europe or Africa or who knows where, shipped it halfway across the world and put it on a buyers wrist in some far flung location
D. Patek is perfectly fine with that middle man that gets their watches onto people’s wrists, as long as it doesn’t affect the perceived value of their brand
F. Everyone here is falling for this
G. If your unhappy then buy Lange GS and many other great brands

I agree with most things here.


People forget the threat of action is as strong as the action itself. The few cases of them buying things back is essentially them acting as a mystery shopper.. It be too expensive and realistically a waste of time and money.

[YYR]

Lol

[GreenLantern]

Pretty sure no one here does *not* know the facts. And no one is falling for anything.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by YYR

Facts:
A. Patek knows what’s going on
B. They want everyone to think that they care, and that they track down AD’s that don’t follow the rules (and it’s working, the evidence is in this thread)
C. That dealer that got the 5711 bought and sold five calatravas from Europe or Africa or who knows where, shipped it halfway across the world and put it on a buyers wrist in some far flung location
D. Patek is perfectly fine with that middle man that gets their watches onto people’s wrists, as long as it doesn’t affect the perceived value of their brand
F. Everyone here is falling for this
G. If your unhappy then buy Lange GS and many other great brands

Disagree with your "facts". The only fact is the number of AD dropping from 430+ to 418 in 2 years, which is consistent with what TS said in terms of dealing with errant ADs. There might be other reasons of course why a dealership is revoked, but I'm inclined to believe in the correlation.

[soundserious]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Pretty sure no one here does *not* know the facts. And no one is falling for anything.

Of course we are. We’re falling for the marketing and the hype.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by soundserious

Of course we are. We’re falling for the marketing and the hype.

Fair enough.

I can only speak for myself: I've liked the Nautilus long before it got sucked into all this hype.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by soundserious

Of course we are. We’re falling for the marketing and the hype.

I actually have no idea what we are talking about tbh.

[GreenLantern]

I've been talking about submarines.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

I've been talking about submarines.

I catch every other post and post a meme that feels like it’s appropriate... working on my meme/gif game.

[YYR]

This is entertaining

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Disagree with your "facts". The only fact is the number of AD dropping from 430+ to 418 in 2 years, which is consistent with what TS said in terms of dealing with errant ADs. There might be other reasons of course why a dealership is revoked, but I'm inclined to believe in the correlation.

+1

Always love it when someone comes up with a list to fit their perceived view of the situation and then calls them all facts!

Of course the real fact is that nothing is ever all black or white and the grey in the middle is the problem.

[pam66]

Originally Posted by YYR

Facts:
A. Patek knows what’s going on
B. They want everyone to think that they care, and that they track down AD’s that don’t follow the rules (and it’s working, the evidence is in this thread)
C. That dealer that got the 5711 bought and sold five calatravas from Europe or Africa or who knows where, shipped it halfway across the world and put it on a buyers wrist in some far flung location
D. Patek is perfectly fine with that middle man that gets their watches onto people’s wrists, as long as it doesn’t affect the perceived value of their brand
F. Everyone here is falling for this
G. If your unhappy then buy Lange GS and many other great brands

agree completely

[CastorKrieg]

Originally Posted by Hendrikus

It is very disappointing. Whilst Rolex have by no means solved it, I felt that with the (now abandoned) warranty card retention they (or their AD's, perhaps) were trying to do something. I do not feel Patek have any desire to try.

This is illegal in many countries e.g. France. Which is probably why Rolex abandoned it.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by GluryOl

A reason why greys eliminate the serial number on watches is for this reason. Has zero to do with fake or stolen watches

Remove the serial number on the watch?

[liljctl]

Originally Posted by jakemeister

Agreed. And it’s more like $30K more. I think we’re talking about rich person’s problems. Lol.



And even with cash, I know plenty of folks who don’t want to go this route.

Herein lies the problem though.

What is the other route? Wait to be allocated one from your AD?

Most ADs are aware of the secondary prices. Each time a 5711 blue is allocated at retail, there's an immediate 25k uplift. They would rather allocate pieces to customers who have decent spending history or ones that they perceive have the capacity to do so - these are the ones that buy at the ADs even though it's cheaper to go secondary.

These days customers who buys at retail indirectly pays an inflated price.

Would there be this much backlash if a customer flips a 5235R instead?

Tyler1980 had a decent collection. He sold the 5711 white, 5712 and BLRO. He might even have moved his 5990. WIS trade and sell watches all the time.

If someone bought a 5711 at retail it's likely they would have lost money on previous purchases.

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[PattayaHammerTime]

am I the exception? I purchased my 5164a through Patek Phillipe boutique here in London after visiting them personally and letting them know I am in no rush and the money is sitting there ready and waiting.... all in all it took me 4/5 months!!!

I also wear it quite a bit as well.... the only time it is a safe queen is when I change over to my rolex rg yachtmaster or my hublot classic fusion(if I am going out in a dodgy place here in London)

[liljctl]

Originally Posted by liljctl

Herein lies the problem though.

What is the other route? Wait to be allocated one from your AD?

Most ADs are aware of the secondary prices. Each time a 5711 blue is allocated at retail, there's an immediate 25k uplift. They would rather allocate pieces to customers who have decent spending history or ones that they perceive have the capacity to do so - these are the ones that buy at the ADs even though it's cheaper to go secondary.

These days customers who buys at retail indirectly pays an inflated price.

Would there be this much backlash if a customer flips a 5235R instead?

Tyler1980 had a decent collection. He sold the 5711 white, 5712 and BLRO. He might even have moved his 5990. WIS trade and sell watches all the time.

If someone bought a 5711 at retail it's likely they would have lost money on previous purchases.

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We only see Ninja's 3 blue 5711 but he also has a few 5930Gs.

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[nevergiveup]

economics 101 Patek sells watches greys sells watches cusumers buy watches wtf don't like it don't play

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Russell996

As I said ‘ These threads always ultimately prove pointless with posters broadly falling into the ‘conspiracy theory’ or the ‘kool-aid’ camps’.

This.

[321Forever]

Originally Posted by GluryOl

Agree, pure speculation...little evidence

Yup, and that's why I was asking this as a question...

...but it seems that the general consensus is that PP does take some steps to monitor and manage diverted product. There clearly are recently bought pieces up for sale that suggest leakage. It was also mentioned that PP is disincentivized to stop this altogether, as the price inflation reflects demand in a positive way. The low production numbers of SS pieces continues, etc. They also cannot stop individuals from parting with their pieces or businesses from selling their pieces, once they leave the dealer. So their ability to intervene is only at the AD level and the cost to intervene is not trivial (e.g., purchasing grey market pieces at 100% markup, just to see the cert.).

...and some RF members don't care about this at all, as they have the cash to buy a lot of PP or have the cash to buy at 100% markup. Others don't like this system and stay away by choice or because it's not affordable.

[RHIII]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I’d be lying if I didn’t think this, exactly when I posed the question. I was looking for a emoji


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[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by jakemeister

Yup, and that's why I was asking this as a question...

...but it seems that the general consensus is that PP does take some steps to monitor and manage diverted product. There clearly are recently bought pieces up for sale that suggest leakage. It was also mentioned that PP is disincentivized to stop this altogether, as the price inflation reflects demand in a positive way. The low production numbers of SS pieces continues, etc. They also cannot stop individuals from parting with their pieces or businesses from selling their pieces, once they leave the dealer. So their ability to intervene is only at the AD level and the cost to intervene is not trivial (e.g., purchasing grey market pieces at 100% markup, just to see the cert.).

...and some RF members don't care about this at all, as they have the cash to buy a lot of PP or have the cash to buy at 100% markup. Others don't like this system and stay away by choice or because it's not affordable.

To be honest I believe market values tend to reflect the time, effort, and money it takes to acquire the piece across a broad spectrum - it is the mean and of course there are always lucky people (first time and get a steel piece within 6 months) and unlucky people (people that have bought a few watches and still waiting on a steel piece). One would argue in reality it really does cost even VIPs $60-$70k in time and money to acquire a 5711 brand new.

I think preventing flipping itself actually INCREASES the monetary value of the watch in the grey market. Can you imagine if Patek would 100% find out on every flip and you literally would lose your relationship with Patek if you flip. What would happen is 5711 prices would actually INCREASE since only those older than 2 years would be in grey.

So said another way, I think the equilibrium does exist with market forces and partial enforcement of flipping actually may be the strategy to allow a somewhat healthy grey market but also allow collectors to get the pieces they want at retail.