These prizes are crazy... 5711/5712

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Commonproject

Link to the group?

+1. I want to bid lol

J/k

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by Commonproject

Link to the group?

It's called the "Wholesale Watch Club". 7400 members strong :O

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

It's called the "Wholesale Watch Club". 7400 members strong :O

Must be like a WeChat account lol

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by jrs146

I don't think it will ever be realistic to get one from an AD. Patek knows what they are doing with the 5711/12. I find it hard to believe that production will ever increase to where one would easily be able to find them sitting in a case.

I know a guy who managed to get 2 blue 5711, a 5712, a 5990 and a 5712r from AD just within months. He is also expecting a 5726 blue soon.

[Fat_ninja]

[Ichiran]

Alternatively, if you are a doctor or specialist, bring your namecard to Hong Kong. They are eager to give you a 5711 or 5712 at retail. No prior or future purchase required.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Alternatively, if you are a doctor or specialist, bring your namecard to Hong Kong. They are eager to give you a 5711 or 5712 at retail. No prior or future purchase required.

Or a dancer/actress named mercedes

[np2016]

How many 5711's and 5712's do most Patek AD's get per year on average in big and small cities?

[jrs146]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I know a guy who managed to get 2 blue 5711, a 5712, a 5990 and a 5712r from AD just within months. He is also expecting a 5726 blue soon.

Sure it’s possible. But surely not the norm and clearly not prevalent enough to bring prices down to msrp on the secondary market.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by np2016

How many 5711's and 5712's do most Patek AD's get per year on average in big and small cities?

Patek never releases official stats for the 5711 production numbers. My guess is 0-2 blue 5711, 0-1 white 5711, and 0-2 5712 per AD depending on their revenue (thus, their contribution to Patek's coffers).

There are 422 Authorized Dealers in the world and 164 models across Patek's catalog. If we multiply these 2 numbers, we get a total of 69,208 which is above the unofficial 55,000 to 60,000 annual capacity. Hence, some AD do not receive certain models. That's where my "0" from above come from.

Of course there is a possibility that Patek makes more than 55,000 to 60,000 watches annually, and if that is the case, we should see more 5711 and 5712 from AD with falling secondary prices. However, that does not seem to be the situation we are currently experiencing. I would be inclined to believe Stern's numbers. I also won't be surprised if the Nautilus numbers have been cut instead of increased as I believe Thierry Stern hates the Nautilus to the core.

Originally Posted by jrs146

Sure it’s possible. But surely not the norm and clearly not prevalent enough to bring prices down to msrp on the secondary market.

Definitely not the norm. He is special we can at least agree on that.

[Bearxj86]

It sold for $87 to a dealer. That means us regular people will pay 90-92

[martinr]

On my visit to Patek in 2017 Thierry was wearing a 5980 blue dial at lunch, wearing a suit, so I seriously doubt he hates the nautilus.

[JorgeCCW]

Originally Posted by martinr

On my visit to Patek in 2017 Thierry was wearing a 5980 blue dial at lunch, wearing a suit, so I seriously doubt he hates the nautilus.

He can’t hate the Nautilus, nautilus saved the brand. In the same manner Cayenne saved Porsche



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by JorgeCCW

He can’t hate the Nautilus, nautilus saved the brand. In the same manner Cayenne saved Porsche



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He loves it. It is propping up his company and lining his pockets right now. The notion that he does not like it is nonsense peddled by people who do not understand business. They want their nautilus to seem likely to be discontinued or produced in lower quantities.

TS does not need to pitch the nautilus to anyone because it sells itself so he pitches the comps.

Why am I telling you this Jorge you already know

[chunkythebulldog]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

It sold for $87 to a dealer. That means us regular people will pay 90-92

More like $100k +. Doubtful a dealer is going to lay out $87k for a $3k return

[Fat_ninja]

He loves the nautilus... I think the entire sports like is worth 4 bil usd and the dress line is maybe 1-2 bil. If he can raise the price of the line by around 30%. The value of sports line is probably worth 7-8bil.

[Sam Philip]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

He loves the nautilus... I think the entire sports like is worth 4 bil usd and the dress line is maybe 1-2 bil. If he can raise the price of the line by around 30%. The value of sports line is probably worth 7-8bil.

It is not vey clear what you meant by "entire sports like is worth 4 bil usd and the dress line is maybe 1-2 bil"

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Sam Philip

It is not vey clear what you meant by "entire sports like is worth 4 bil usd and the dress line is maybe 1-2 bil"

I was telling Dane the other day... I was really trying to emphasize the value of the sports line to Thiery and fam.

Let’s assume 10k nautilus/aquanaut sold at on avg $50k usd per watch.
Assume 50% ebitda margin. Multiple by 15x which is what this business would likely go for in the current market... this would be about $4bil of value. Just for the sports line.


This is just my back of the envelope funny math.



I’m probably underestimating the remainder of the watch segment... it’s probably worth $4 bil as well. Assuming 40k units at 50-75k on average per watch. With a lower margin and a lower multiple cause no one cares about dress watches...


Like I said it’s just funny math. I do this with birkins and Hermès stock too lol

When I’m bored

[Sam Philip]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

I was telling Dane the other day... I was really trying to emphasize the value of the sports line to Thiery and fam.

Let’s assume 10k nautilus/aquanaut sold at on avg $50k usd per watch.
Assume 50% ebitda margin. Multiple by 15x which is what this business would likely go for in the current market... this would be about $4bil of value. Just for the sports line.


This is just my back of the envelope funny math.



I’m probably underestimating the remainder of the watch segment... it’s probably worth $4 bil as well. Assuming 40k units at 50-75k on average per watch. With a lower margin and a lower multiple cause no one cares about dress watches...


Like I said it’s just funny math. I do this with birkins and Hermès stock too lol

When I’m bored

I think the value of dress/complicated line depends on the number of high end grand complications they produce.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I know a guy who managed to get 2 blue 5711, a 5712, a 5990 and a 5712r from AD just within months. He is also expecting a 5726 blue soon.

That's why no one else can get them, they are a large part of the problem, they should be buying the G Comps but no kudos in that or profit these Insta days, so the whales come back in for the basic biatches that they should have gotten over years ago, same with Rolex, you got both the whales and the credit card homeless all chasing the watches, coming from all angles now so prices spiral like crazy.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by AK797

That's why no one else can get them, they are a large part of the problem, they should be buying the G Comps but no kudos in that or money, so the whales come back in for the basic beatches that they should have gotten over years ago.

Tbf, said whale has an incoming grand comp.

[Aquaman]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I know a guy who managed to get 2 blue 5711, a 5712, a 5990 and a 5712r from AD just within months. He is also expecting a 5726 blue soon.

We all. Know that guy he's the fat Ninja

[ts3]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

Tbf, said whale has an incoming grand comp.

I wouldn't be surprised if he gets bored w Patek soon and moves on to RM or sth else altogether. Until then I don't expect to receive any hot sports watch.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Sam Philip

I think the value of dress/complicated line depends on the number of high end grand complications they produce.

Possibly but in this market, I don’t think it’s worth very much to investors. Or potential suitors

[Sam Philip]

Originally Posted by Aquaman

We all. Know that guy he's the fat Ninja

Good guess

It appears he can't get any Aquanauts, may be some one else getting those

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Aquaman

We all. Know that guy he's the fat Ninja

I’m not a whale :(

I’m slaving away at my 4:30 am to 12 am job every day.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Sam Philip

Good guess

It appears he can't get any Aquanauts, may be some one else getting those

Damn aqua men.

[Sam Philip]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Damn aqua men.

Men or man?

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Sam Philip

Men or man?

It’s all in the yeast

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Damn aqua men.

Aquaman has all the new aquanauts, including the coming green one.