When will this end?

[fsprow]

The market price will approximate MSRP when supply equals demand. Nothing hard to figure out or suspicious here.

[Lemieux66]

My local AD in the UK has had the BB58 925 sitting in the window all week, alongside both black and white dial variations of the new Tudor chronos.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by kacey1001

Just to be clear, it wasn’t a security guard, it was one of their Sales Associates. You didn’t/don’t need an appointment to visit (even in these times).

If you had an appointment, you would have been let in.

[Moondoggy]

It will end when padi goes to a party and massages my distant planet.

[Marcjvr]

Originally Posted by kacey1001

I have been very fortunate with my Rolex purchases and have not personally experienced some of the AD games that I have read about on these Forums. However, Yesterday I experienced something, that for me personally, took these games to a new level.

I visited the Trafford Centre, in Manchester, UK. I paid a visit to a few of the boutiques/AD’s to see if any of this years new releases (across all brands) where available to see. I stopped by Beaverbrooks to enquire if they had a Tudor BB58, in Silver, to see (even if they were “spoken for”). At the door of the AD, I was asked if I was a “previous customer” of the AD, as only existing customers would be able to view the Gold or Silver Tudor BB58 “at this time”.

Hopefully they remember the old adage “be nice to the people you meet on the way up, because you will run into them again on the way back down”

[dmash]

I see we’ve reached about 90% of people now saying ‘it will never end and always be like this’.


We’re getting much closer to the fallout now. Just like with every other hot market, whether it be goods or stocks. When near everyone is saying ‘it will never come back down’, it comes back down. Every. Single. Time.


I predict we’ll see the first (minor) downturn when the stimulus and unemployment (propping up a large portion of the spending) ceases for good. My friends teenage kid makes 2x more now with fed money than he did at his job. It’s insane. When this stops, it will be a trickle back down to parity. Around 2025 probably (again, my opinion). It probably would have already cooled off if not for COVID. Most everybody (including myself) got that wrong that we thought spending would relax, but that unprecedented money injection has spurred spending unlike anything in the history of the economy.

[boogiebot]

Originally Posted by msaleem

This will end when prospective customers stop bending over for ADs.

Translation: This will never end and only get worse.

You’re right. The issue here is that we As customers have started to accept this kind of behaviour. I have said it so many times - as a consumer we vote with our dollars. The fact that 99% of consumers keep buying just because it’s a hot item, this tells stores and the brand “hey you guys are doing a great job, keep treating me like this”. Seriously guys wtf is wrong with us?!?!?! All of this just at a chance to buy a watch? People can call me salty, as a consumer I personally am not willing to play these games.


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[TTbluesy]

Oh it will end, and end hard.

Have some cash money set aside (not crypto) to scoop up deals from woefully leveraged people.


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[GMT Aviator]

Tulips from Amsterdam.

[HMHM]

Originally Posted by TTbluesy

Oh it will end, and end hard.

Have some cash money set aside (not crypto) to scoop up deals from woefully leveraged people.


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At this point, people who can afford to buy watches will always be able to afford them. Even if the market tanks tomorrow, there will be 50 people on standby ready to swoop in.

[Ensign]

No time soon.

Ordinary guys like you and me just have to go grey or get into a different hobby.

And sadly, grey prices don’t make sense for regular joes.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by GMT Aviator

Tulips from Amsterdam.

It’s honestly kind of funny that this new mindset has all of the sudden developed where people think a wristwatch, one of the most antiquated objects there is, will of the sudden be ‘forever in style’. It’s kind of absurd, truly. You had luxury watch CEOs sweating bullets around 2014 due to sales falling off, getting discounts on a blue Nautilus, Royal Oak, GMT, whatever and now we have this. Things will *eventually* come full circle and some people are going to deny and naysay all the way down.

Honestly I think you’ll even have some weirdos claiming ‘buy the dip’ on watches as well. Crazy times the past few years.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by boogiebot

You’re right. The issue here is that we As customers have started to accept this kind of behaviour. I have said it so many times - as a consumer we vote with our dollars. The fact that 99% of consumers keep buying just because it’s a hot item, this tells stores and the brand “hey you guys are doing a great job, keep treating me like this”. Seriously guys wtf is wrong with us?!?!?! All of this just at a chance to buy a watch? People can call me salty, as a consumer I personally am not willing to play these games.


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Meh, I’ve come to accept people will do whatever they want with their money and that’s that. I refuse to ever pay a dollar over MSRP for a Rolex and arguably some of them aren’t even worth that. But yes, I agree, unless you’re in your older years, this Amazon/gotta have it today mentality paired with influencer type marketing has really skyrocketed luxury items for the time being and making people do crazy things. It’s unbelievable that people post about getting heckled by an AD and then still buying something to try and ‘form a relationship’. It’s actually incredible. You’re spending money, not seeking healthcare treatment from a top tier surgeon. They should be kissing your butt, not the other way around.

I recently sold off my entire collection and topped it off by selling my LV travel roll just last week. I’m done for the time being, officially. I’m not only sick and tired of the games, I’m becoming tired of a lot of the people who are ‘into horology’ right now. I’m not on a pedestal where I care if you know history and ins and outs, but when you own something just to snap pics and look cool for your friends it kind of annoys me and has ruined this hobby. It’s become too saturated with silly stuff at this point. Problem is, there’s 100 other people who will do the opposite of me and refuse to take a break from watches.

[TTbluesy]

Originally Posted by HMHM

At this point, people who can afford to buy watches will always be able to afford them. Even if the market tanks tomorrow, there will be 50 people on standby ready to swoop in.

At this point yes.

2008 will happen again and lots of watches will again be 50% off. It’s just a luxury item and a large percentage of people over-paying today are highly leveraged. Far worse than 2008. Look how many threads here talk about being super savvy and financing your watch. Lol. Insanity.

Luxury items are the first things to fall when a crisis hits. Covid wasn’t a crisis, it was a windfall to most.


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[GMT Aviator]

Originally Posted by dmash

It’s honestly kind of funny that this new mindset has all of the sudden developed where people think a wristwatch, one of the most antiquated objects there is, will of the sudden be ‘forever in style’. It’s kind of absurd, truly. You had luxury watch CEOs sweating bullets around 2014 due to sales falling off, getting discounts on a blue Nautilus, Royal Oak, GMT, whatever and now we have this. Things will *eventually* come full circle and some people are going to deny and naysay all the way down.

Honestly I think you’ll even have some weirdos claiming ‘buy the dip’ on watches as well. Crazy times the past few years.

Agreed.

I operated a flight to Jersey years ago.

Flowers from Jersey carry a premium price because they were for many years considered premium plants.

This one time on the way down there, the hold was full of fresh cut flowers in boxes from Holland.

When we landed, during the turnaround, the loaders unloaded all the flowers on the tarmac, and this guy started labelling all the boxes with labels which said, ‘Flowers from Jersey’.

Then they were all loaded back into the hold and we flew them back to London where they were later no doubt sold for a premium in the flower markets downtown.

I’ve never bought ‘Flowers from Jersey’ since and I never will.

It’s the same reason why I will never buy the hype or the inflated Grey market prices for these watches. It’s a fools errand when there is clearly an MRSP sticker on the box from the manufacturer.

To my mind, AD’s that sell out the back door to Greys are no different to the guy on the tarmac with the ‘Flowers from Jersey’ sticker reel.

Without question the hype will eventually subside when enough flowers from jersey have a been gorged by the masses and they move on.

Same as Tulips from Amsterdam.

[superpop]

USA is quickly becoming Greece, with our fake economy and endless supplies of ink to print more money. Founding fathers are rolling over in their graves with the way this country is behaving. I mean come on, 3.5 Trillion in new debt in one year. Winter is coming and for the vast majority of "Social Media" influencers who are over leveraged or used to a fat check for clicks, the fall will be hard. 10K plus watches will be the least of most peoples worries.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by superpop

USA is quickly becoming Greece, with our fake economy and endless supplies of ink to print more money. Founding fathers are rolling over in their graves with the way this country is behaving. I mean come on, 3.5 Trillion in new debt in one year. Winter is coming and for the vast majority of "Social Media" influencers who are over leveraged or used to a fat check for clicks, the fall will be hard. 10K plus watches will be the least of most peoples worries.

Watches aside, I definitely agree there is an impending doom. A lot of younger generation (and I’m only in 30s myself) are disillusioned this this can all be printed for free. Nothing is free, never.

We have been due for a massive correction and I think people are off their rocker thinking that major sell off in March of last year was it. We’re just artificially propped up right now, the reckoning is yet to come. Pair all this with insane things like Dogecoin and GameStop movements? Haha hold on tight everyone.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by TTbluesy

Oh it will end, and end hard.

Have some cash money set aside (not crypto) to scoop up deals from woefully leveraged people.


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Agreed


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[Danny83]

Hopefully when the Rolex CEO steps down. Empty cases all over the world cant last forever in any business motto

[boogiebot]

Originally Posted by dmash

Meh, I’ve come to accept people will do whatever they want with their money and that’s that. I refuse to ever pay a dollar over MSRP for a Rolex and arguably some of them aren’t even worth that. But yes, I agree, unless you’re in your older years, this Amazon/gotta have it today mentality paired with influencer type marketing has really skyrocketed luxury items for the time being and making people do crazy things. It’s unbelievable that people post about getting heckled by an AD and then still buying something to try and ‘form a relationship’. It’s actually incredible. You’re spending money, not seeking healthcare treatment from a top tier surgeon. They should be kissing your butt, not the other way around.

I recently sold off my entire collection and topped it off by selling my LV travel roll just last week. I’m done for the time being, officially. I’m not only sick and tired of the games, I’m becoming tired of a lot of the people who are ‘into horology’ right now. I’m not on a pedestal where I care if you know history and ins and outs, but when you own something just to snap pics and look cool for your friends it kind of annoys me and has ruined this hobby. It’s become too saturated with silly stuff at this point. Problem is, there’s 100 other people who will do the opposite of me and refuse to take a break from watches.

@dmash I can totally appreciate your mindset and perspective. Maybe you and I are dying breed in this hobby. Officially I’m done too. Life’s too short for me to constantly be chasing and playing games.




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[David001]

Originally Posted by boogiebot

@dmash I can totally appreciate your mindset and perspective. Maybe you and I are dying breed in this hobby. Officially I’m done too. Life’s too short for me to constantly be chasing and playing games.




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I don't agree that there is a crash coming, it's just like the housing market, it will level off but never crash.

However, I'm like you and dmash, after over 35yrs of collecting watches I'm completely switched off by the new hype, so I bought my last two grail watches from a grey dealer in the last year and I'm currently selling off all my other watches except for those two and one other from about 15yrs ago with sentimental value.

I'll sit on the side lines watching for a while with my three watches and a pot full of cash from the sale of my 'hot' watches.

[JBoone]

Originally Posted by David001

I don't agree that there is a crash coming, it's just like the housing market, it will level off but never crash.

However, I'm like you and dmash, after over 35yrs of collecting watches I'm completely switched off by the new hype, so I bought my last two grail watches from a grey dealer in the last year and I'm currently selling off all my other watches except for those two and one other from about 15yrs ago with sentimental value.

I'll sit on the side lines watching for a while with my three watches and a pot full of cash from the sale of my 'hot' watches.

Not a bad approach. If you are sitting on in demand watches that don’t do much for you, or could go towards something that you like better and is obtainable, now is a good time.

[Francist]

Originally Posted by TTbluesy

At this point yes.

2008 will happen again and lots of watches will again be 50% off. It’s just a luxury item and a large percentage of people over-paying today are highly leveraged. Far worse than 2008. Look how many threads here talk about being super savvy and financing your watch. Lol. Insanity.

Luxury items are the first things to fall when a crisis hits. Covid wasn’t a crisis, it was a windfall to most.


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I sold my 37mm DJ back then just to survive. Was lucky i still had a job but bonus & comission was 0. Truly a wake up call. This "game" is getting super stupid since almost everyone is a flipper now. Sometimes they even flip at a loss just to get store credit & get SS sports model.

[BNA/LION]

That's the first time I've heard you have to be an existing customer at an AD to see watches. Crazy!

Will it end? Probably no time soon as long as there are so many people just in the game to flip watches, huge demand and limited inventory.

[Haveapair]

There is a lot of demand so they want to do their best for their current customers, not strangers off the street. Not very surprising

[wohlfecc]

The short answer, IMHO, is that the econ101 supply-demand curve still applies. What’s not said here is why demand is so strong? Again, just my opinion, but regardless of Rolex production number changes, COVID days didn’t really seem to affect your average luxury watch buyer. If anything, these buyers did better than average (job security, stock portfolio gains, etc). Add to that the extra time on telework to daydream/ surf social media luxury posts, and it seems easy to assume that demand has increased substantially.

[TheHulk]

Be allowed to view the Tudor???? I think I’d still be laughing hysterically!!!

[CAOrthopod90]

Originally Posted by dmash

I see we’ve reached about 90% of people now saying ‘it will never end and always be like this’.


We’re getting much closer to the fallout now. Just like with every other hot market, whether it be goods or stocks. When near everyone is saying ‘it will never come back down’, it comes back down. Every. Single. Time.


I predict we’ll see the first (minor) downturn when the stimulus and unemployment (propping up a large portion of the spending) ceases for good. My friends teenage kid makes 2x more now with fed money than he did at his job. It’s insane. When this stops, it will be a trickle back down to parity. Around 2025 probably (again, my opinion). It probably would have already cooled off if not for COVID. Most everybody (including myself) got that wrong that we thought spending would relax, but that unprecedented money injection has spurred spending unlike anything in the history of the economy.

I agree...2025 sounds harsh but probably closer to true than most people realize. I see no signs of slowdown in anything, whether it be watches, real estate, stock market, etc. but it will have to happen.

Daytonas going for 3x MSRP? BLRO 2x MSRP? Absurd and unsustainable. Interesting question is what Rolex HQ's response will be in the meantime. Increase production while the demand is high before the inevitable collapse or continue to squeeze?

[Flintstone]

I have no problem with what the AD did by trying to minimize the casual/window shopper. Let your serious and return clients look first. I’d much rather purchase a timepiece that wasn’t handled at all — or at least by just a few.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by CAOrthopod90

I agree...2025 sounds harsh but probably closer to true than most people realize. I see no signs of slowdown in anything, whether it be watches, real estate, stock market, etc. but it will have to happen.

Daytonas going for 3x MSRP? BLRO 2x MSRP? Absurd and unsustainable. Interesting question is what Rolex HQ's response will be in the meantime. Increase production while the demand is high before the inevitable collapse or continue to squeeze?

Nope I don’t think they will. This is why.

When everything resumes ‘normalcy’ they’re shooting for all SS to still bring at least MSRP. People are quick to forget, even a Sub was 15% off MSRP EASYYY only in 2017 or so. They don’t want the market flooded to extremes when the market isn’t as hot, so they’re pissing people off now and curbing production to ensure 2025 is still ‘seemingly’ hot.

My take on it anyways. They’d sabotage the brand by increasing production 2x the numbers they are now. For the time being nothing would change, but their 5-10 year outlook would look horrendous.