New Year's Patek Rumor Mill

[Jetkopite]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

Mr Stern could use your advise my friend!

For some strange reason I think the 5131 is on its way out of production...


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Surely they wont stop the enameling?? I hear the lady that does the 5131's is getting on abit so not sure who will take over?

[thomaspp]

Originally Posted by Jetkopite

Surely they wont stop the enameling?? I hear the lady that does the 5131's is getting on abit so not sure who will take over?

You want to know my gut feeling? Yes, they will stop enamel dials as it's too time consuming and they can just make guilloched dials on the 5230. They can save the enamel dials for the anniversary references or the special releases like something released in NY (NY editions perhaps). Maybe the 5930 will be come the "hard to get" worldtimer. This is all just my guessing of course.....

[thomaspp]

Originally Posted by KarlS

Oh that doesnt really matter...just a beautiful thick border with some perlage!!

made me laugh!

[Fensterdub]

Originally Posted by RUK

All I want is a nice Calatrava, may be in SS or White Gold , 37-38mm with an updated movement and a display back. Ie - Update the 5196 but keep the same look.

Couldn't agree more. I'd love a 5196 with a sapphire back and an update on the 215ps. Surely it's due an upgrade?


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[KarlS]

Originally Posted by Jetkopite

Surely they wont stop the enameling?? I hear the lady that does the 5131's is getting on abit so not sure who will take over?

Actually she only does the clocks and only about 1 a year! The fact that there has been a flurry of 5131 releases is strange because everyone always said the limiting factor to production were the dials. Sudden.y seem to a lot more dials then? Are more people enamelling? Who knows? Anyway we only have 4 months to go to find out and this will give us something to speculate on now that the 40th is done and the C is over!

[jschmidtdmd]

Gosh, despite seeing it in person, I am attracted to the 5131......I am just not sure I am comfortable paying just under twice MSRP. I also have never seen one in person

[Jetkopite]

Originally Posted by KarlS

Actually she only does the clocks and only about 1 a year! The fact that there has been a flurry of 5131 releases is strange because everyone always said the limiting factor to production were the dials. Sudden.y seem to a lot more dials then? Are more people enamelling? Who knows? Anyway we only have 4 months to go to find out and this will give us something to speculate on now that the 40th is done and the C is over!

Well the flurry is like only 3-4 or so max ive seen the last few months?? I was speaking to a guy at Patek here in Dubai and he thinks they only make around 10-20 pieces(5131R) a year, when I said who told you that he said thats the impression he got when asked in Geneva when they go for their training to work as Patek Philippe sales staff. Not sure how accurate that is as when I asked my friend who works at the salon in GVA he wasnt allowed to say..

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by Jetkopite

Well the flurry is like only 3-4 or so max ive seen the last few months?? I was speaking to a guy at Patek here in Dubai and he thinks they only make around 10-20 pieces(5131R) a year, when I said who told you that he said thats the impression he got when asked in Geneva when they go for their training to work as Patek Philippe sales staff. Not sure how accurate that is as when I asked my friend who works at the salon in GVA he wasnt allowed to say..

There are at least 3 incomings on this forum we know about for this year and another site there was 3 this last month!! Any way if they discontinue will be good for existing owners.

[Jetkopite]

Originally Posted by KarlS

There are at least 3 incomings on this forum we know about for this year and another site there was 3 this last month!! And way if they discontinue will be good for existing owners.

Who knows mate time will tell..

[Marciano490]

Originally Posted by KarlS

There are at least 3 incomings on this forum we know about for this year and another site there was 3 this last month!! Any way if they discontinue will be good for existing owners.

I don't think you can really tell anything statistically from forum posts and variations in incomings tend to be statistical noise rather than data you can extrapolate from. How many people here own or have posted watches whose productions numbers we have a general sense of? There were, what, 2 of the AP laptimers? Maybe 3 RG schumis. I don't remember anyone but Conkers ever owning any AP platinum LE, so that's 1/100 or 150.

The fact is, there are enough people out there buying without posting here or to Instagram that any flurry of activity related to a specific model here or on other forums doesn't tell us too much about what's going on in the market.

[goog53]

I heard when they were making the J/G that US would see 8-10 pieces a year. My guess is they put out 50 worldwide per year

[Marciano490]

Might be around there. I have the 5131r without the snow, which is apparently rarer and was in production for less than a year. The number I heard for that run in less than a year was 40-50, so if both rumors are true, it just depends on how shy of a full year the no-snow went.

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Marciano490

Might be around there. I have the 5131r without the snow, which is apparently rarer and was in production for less than a year. The number I heard for that run in less than a year was 40-50, so if both rumors are true, it just depends on how shy of a full year the no-snow went.

I don't believe there was a period of non snow production, simply different enamel work/ers. The original 2015 images have snow so it was always possible.
Much as I would like to agree with the low numbers mentioned for production I actually believe production is far higher. There are I believe 400 AD's Worldwide - if production is only 50 per year that is one piece per AD in 8 years. Very far from correct.

[martinr]

That enamel work is a skill that can be learned just like any other craft such as engraving. If Patek wanted to produce more 5131's with enamel dials all they need to do is hire a few people and train them. Easy. But then the mystique disappears. Even if I liked the 5131 and it's not really my kind of watch I'd pass so I wouldn't have to play all the games required to get one. To each his own.

[Marciano490]

Originally Posted by martinr

That enamel work is a skill that can be learned just like any other craft such as engraving. If Patek wanted to produce more 5131's with enamel dials all they need to do is hire a few people and train them. Easy. But then the mystique disappears. Even if I liked the 5131 and it's not really my kind of watch I'd pass so I wouldn't have to play all the games required to get one. To each his own.

It's funny to me people push back on this "marketing ploy" more than any others. All watches are marketing. Why is a Mille 100k or a Rolex 20k? There ain't that much gold in there. Or carbon. Or steel.

[texex91]

Originally Posted by Marciano490

There ain't that much gold in there. Or carbon. Or steel.

or...enamel

[Marciano490]

Haha exactly! Mille has rubber straps! The point is I think it misrepresents the purpose and valuation of art to look at something like a watch and specifically the enamel work and point out that a lot of people could do the same. I can paint a Campbell Soup can. Buy my work.

[texex91]

Originally Posted by Marciano490

I can paint a Campbell Soup can. Buy my work.

“You never actually own a Campbell Soup can. You merely look after it for the next generation.”

[martinr]

Originally Posted by Marciano490

Haha exactly! Mille has rubber straps! The point is I think it misrepresents the purpose and valuation of art to look at something like a watch and specifically the enamel work and point out that a lot of people could do the same. I can paint a Campbell Soup can. Buy my work.

I'm not saying something like you might overhear at a museum when somebody says "I could of done that" while looking at a painting. I realize that doing enamel on a dial takes skill but while it's pretty or attractive I don't see it as art.
The price has nothing to do with it. I'm not putting down the watch or the collector that likes it, like I said, to each his own.

[martinr]

Originally Posted by texex91

or...enamel

Yes but some of them have snow.

[Marciano490]

Originally Posted by martinr

I'm not saying something like you might overhear at a museum when somebody says "I could of done that" while looking at a painting. I realize that doing enamel on a dial takes skill but while it's pretty or attractive I don't see it as art.
The price has nothing to do with it. I'm not putting down the watch or the collector that likes it, like I said, to each his own.

What do you think of Rothko or John Cage's 4'33"? If you don't think these or watches in general are at, what're you paying for? All are absurdly priced.

[martinr]

Those are artists, I don't know the work but they're artists. The enamel dial is cool but aren't they made by some nameless little old lady in a village in Switzerland? I'm joking but still it's pretty much the same dial over and over. I can't compare that to a painting, its more like an artistic craft.

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by Marciano490

I don't think you can really tell anything statistically from forum posts and variations in incomings tend to be statistical noise rather than data you can extrapolate from. How many people here own or have posted watches whose productions numbers we have a general sense of? There were, what, 2 of the AP laptimers? Maybe 3 RG schumis. I don't remember anyone but Conkers ever owning any AP platinum LE, so that's 1/100 or 150.

The fact is, there are enough people out there buying without posting here or to Instagram that any flurry of activity related to a specific model here or on other forums doesn't tell us too much about what's going on in the market.

But surely your statement that there are enough people buying out there and not posting kind of proves my point? What is being posted is a fraction of what is actually being pride rd and thus there is a correlation. Not a perfect population or correlation but a trend!!! In fact some of the receptions even stated they haven't posted because they don't want to annoy some collectors. Anyway does it really matter? I made an observation that there were a lot more incomings based on new posts versus the last 2 years and If I thought it was important enough I could trawl all the threads and build a case.... Another point the watch at MRSP is not that expensive. It's the grey market that ,ales it look that expensive.

[Marciano490]

My point was, as the forums represent such a small percentage of total watch sales, any variation in the purchases posted here is statistically insignificant. It's like saying there is more crime in the country because two people in your neighborhood got robbed last month.

It's syllogism. It's a logical fallacy. Would you think it made sense if I said Voutilainen was having its best selling year ever because suddenly two posters here are buying from him?

[raclaims]

I can't wait for the platinum 5270

Nearly bought the blue dialed one recently...but decided to wait for platinum...hopefully it's not a multi year wait!

wouldn't be surprised to see the enamel dial die off or the 5235...glad I own both!

[Oryx]

Originally Posted by KarlS

Actually she only does the clocks and only about 1 a year! The fact that there has been a flurry of 5131 releases is strange because everyone always said the limiting factor to production were the dials. Sudden.y seem to a lot more dials then? Are more people enamelling? Who knows? Anyway we only have 4 months to go to find out and this will give us something to speculate on now that the 40th is done and the C is over!

her name is Suzanne Rohr and she works on pocket watches exclusively for Patek. She is quite old and works from her own home she has slowed down her work a lot recently and is currently producing one watch a year.

The other "Grand Feu" enameler is Anita Porchet who also works with Patek.

5131's are enamelled by a different team all together (not of the same level) - I believe PP has 2 or 3 enamelers focused on making the dials.

[martinr]

Originally Posted by Oryx

her name is Suzanne Rohr and she works on pocket watches exclusively for Patek. She is quite old and works from her own home she has slowed down her work a lot recently and is currently producing one watch a year.

The other "Grand Feu" enameler is Anita Porchet who also works with Patek.

5131's are enamelled by a different team all together (not of the same level) - I believe PP has 2 or 3 enamelers focused on making the dials.

Excellent information thank you.

[KarlS]

Originally Posted by Marciano490

My point was, as the forums represent such a small percentage of total watch sales, any variation in the purchases posted here is statistically insignificant. It's like saying there is more crime in the country because two people in your neighborhood got robbed last month.

It's syllogism. It's a logical fallacy. Would you think it made sense if I said Voutilainen was having its best selling year ever because suddenly two posters here are buying from him?

What I do know is that between Arnaud and myself that is 5% of production. I would certainly draw a correlation in crime in my neighborhood if there had been no previous crime. Ceteris PARIBAS if crime in all other areas was unchanged then this extra 2 would have implied higher crime as a whole. Let's just agree to disagree!

[Marciano490]

Originally Posted by KarlS

What I do know is that between Arnaud and myself that is 5% of production. I would certainly draw a correlation in crime in my neighborhood if there had been no previous crime. Cerberus PARIBAS if crime in all other areas was unchanged then this extra 2 would have implied higher crime as a whole. Let's just agree to disagree!

Gladly and respectfully. I'm just excited for your Kari.

[Iflylo]

Happy Birthday Thomas!