Prices will deflate in the Rolex Bubble

[spersky]

I suspect the slowdown from China and the Stock Market will greatly impact these ridiculous grey market prices in Rolex. In addition, the prices dropping will likely deter flippers and increase the calls AD's make to actual collectors and watch aficionados who will enjoy the watch.

Regards

[MattyL147]

You heard it here first ladies and gents...

[Pantheon]

[newu5er]

Well this came outta nowhere!

[crbrown]

Or maybe Rolex curbs production further in alignment with demand and nothing changes.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by spersky

I suspect the slowdown from China and the Stock Market will greatly impact these ridiculous grey market prices in Rolex. In addition, the prices dropping will likely deter flippers and increase the calls AD's make to actual collectors and watch aficionados who will enjoy the watch.

Regards

Great to know, cheers

[Uggi]

Great, how do I short watch prices?

[Geckobros]

[RTG]

yawn

[dtwer]

Originally Posted by spersky

I suspect the slowdown from China and the Stock Market will greatly impact these ridiculous grey market prices in Rolex. In addition, the prices dropping will likely deter flippers and increase the calls AD's make to actual collectors and watch aficionados who will enjoy the watch.

Regards

OP I really love your optimism, bwahahahahaha.

[seasubmariner]

So there will be a panic loss sales :)))

[moore2]

Great observations..

[djgallo]

I wan’t what you’re having....

[shkure]

Originally Posted by Uggi

Great, how do I short watch prices?

1. You borrow a friend's DaytonaC and/or steel BLRO
2. You sell them at gray mkt prices
3. you tell your friend you lost his/her watch but will get it back.
4. You wait 6 months till the equity markets have blown up
5. You buy the watches back below retail.
6. You give back to said friend
7. you pocket a handsome profit but might loose a friend.

Edit: this is a joke. Dont try at home

[Tomas Eriksson]

Who are these "actual" collectors and watch aficionados? Im pretty sure most of the members here wouldn't be collecting if there wasn't a potential short term economical upside.

[newu5er]

Originally Posted by shkure

1. You borrow a friend's DaytonaC and/or steel BLRO
2. You sell them at gray mkt prices
3. you tell your friend you lost his/her watch but will get it back.
4. You wait 6 months till the equity markets have blown up
5. You buy the watches back below retail.
6. You give back to said friend
7. you pocket a handsome profit but might loose a friend.

Edit: this is a joke. Dont try at home

Awesome method

[newu5er]

Originally Posted by Tomas Eriksson

Who are these "actual" collectors and watch aficionados? Im pretty sure most of the members here wouldn't be collecting if there wasn't a potential short term economical upside.

I'm a collector and an aficionado, but like many have said, these watches tend to hold value well, so that definitely factors into the hobby. Kinda get the best of all worlds when you love the watch and the fact that it holds value if you're the type of collector who may sell something to gain a different piece. Sometimes you fall out of love with a piece - we see it everyday here.

[ndrs63]

What if Rolex shuts down production temporarily as the corona virus spreads? Just kidding, gotta love these speculations


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[dtwer]

Originally Posted by Tomas Eriksson

Who are these "actual" collectors and watch aficionados? Im pretty sure most of the members here wouldn't be collecting if there wasn't a potential short term economical upside.

Spot on.

That's why it's in many ways hilarious that some on here advocate for scenarios where the Rolex prices crash:

"Rolex should flood the mark with watches!" - Well that kills the value of your Rolex collection too.

"I wish the market crashes so that nobody buys Rolexes!" - Well that means your investment also deflates.

[spersky]

Below MSRP for SS sport models I doubt, but 2x MSRP for a SS Daytona is insane and definitely bubble level. If the stock market really does correct significantly, then just like 2008 resection you will get these on sale. There are over 671 116500LN on sale right now on Chrono 24. Not like it is rare.

[glamorama]

That would be ok with me. Doesn't have to crash, just go back to say 2016 levels.

I'm dreaming of a DaytonaC but can't pull the trigger at these gray prices and new from AD might take a while as I just said I want to be considered for one.

[Chester01]

Likely, little thousand point Dow drop along with the market psychology and legitimate issues of Asian buyers getting out and about will absolutely impact demand. However, given I have never nor will ever buy for investment, and never have nor will but above MSRP am in good shape.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by spersky

I suspect the slowdown from China and the Stock Market will greatly impact these ridiculous grey market prices in Rolex. In addition, the prices dropping will likely deter flippers and increase the calls AD's make to actual collectors and watch aficionados who will enjoy the watch.

Regards

Cool story, would read again

[mykii]

I think there may be a downtick in alignment with demand, but it won't be as significant as what some predict. I presume it will fall back to grey prices 2-3 yrs ago, where hot models were slightly above MSRP and easier to acquire models (exp 2 etc) will trade slightly under.

[SDR581]

Originally Posted by crbrown

or maybe rolex curbs production further in alignment with demand and nothing changes.

this!!

[schoolboy]

Money is so confusing

I always hear that the market is about to crash

Then I hear that we’re doing better than we ever have

So which is it!?

[JParm]

Originally Posted by schoolboy

Money is so confusing

I always hear that the market is about to crash

Then I hear that we’re doing better than we ever have

So which is it!?

Both. Neither.

[newu5er]

Originally Posted by schoolboy

Money is so confusing

I always hear that the market is about to crash

Then I hear that we’re doing better than we ever have

So which is it!?

Loaded question my friend. You'll get as many answers as there are posters here.

[TimeToWatch]

Okay

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by dtwer

Spot on.

That's why it's in many ways hilarious that some on here advocate for scenarios where the Rolex prices crash:

"Rolex should flood the mark with watches!" - Well that kills the value of your Rolex collection too.

"I wish the market crashes so that nobody buys Rolexes!" - Well that means your investment also deflates.

In a dream world I would love to see a deflationary spiral as in Japan's lost decade where prices collapse and no one is buying because the price will be lower tomorrow . . .

Wonder who would be happy then, besides me

Oh well it is fun to dream