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Old 1 September 2018, 04:23 AM   #1
coralfarmer84
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Dose of Reality concerning the SS "Shortage"

I wondered into an independant jeweler "grey dealer" the other day because they had a watch listed online that I wanted to see in person. I was blown away at what they had in stock. Half a dozen Sub LV's, probably more BLNR's, Multiple SS Daytonas. Pretty much anything and everything in multiples that you could ever want that your AD has years of waitlists for. Sure I know there are a lot of these places around, thats not what hit me as interesting.

The interesting part was while I was there they were putting away their latest delivery, said it just came in. I watched them do it actually, probably 20 rolex in total. All in coffins, all fully stickered, warranty cards sticking to back of coffin. In this single shipment they pulled out 3 of the new "pepsi" GMTs. A SS daytona, blue Sky D, pretty much the who's who of big resale watches over list. They also pulled out some high end gold pieces as well as a platinum daytona. I can't say for sure but it seemed these were all from one source but it sure appeared that way.

Now you can believe your AD when they tell you they haven't received a single hard to get piece or only have been allocated 1 but I'm calling B.S. for the most part. Sure some tiny AD's don't get much but I truly feel like a lot of these companies are selling them for over list because they are in business to make money. Believe what you want, it only makes sense. These places aren't getting stock as one trickles in here and there, they have loads of hard to get watches. And I understand Rolex the mother company could reprimand or pull AD status from these companies if they caught them, but hasn't that been the case for decades with AD's suppling the grey market with slow moving watches at a great discount. These companies are in the money making business, why would they leave a ton of profit on the table when they sell you a 10k watch that is currently trading for 17-18k with ease. Its only logical some of them simply aren't. It was eye opening for me personally.
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Old 1 September 2018, 05:35 AM   #2
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Exactly,Don’t play their Games.People Like DavidSW have a NEVER ending supply of overpriced hot Watches while the real connoisseur gets the middle finger....They can keep them.
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Old 1 September 2018, 05:39 AM   #3
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Back when there is no ss shortage, the greys were selling a bit below msrp on ss sport models, and they are not scoping up all the ss sports from the AD. But now, its like a monopoly.
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Old 1 September 2018, 05:40 AM   #4
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Without being too specific, what part of the country is this jeweler in?
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Old 1 September 2018, 05:49 AM   #5
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When there wasn't a shortage the Gray's had stock below retail. I bought a few at great prices from DavidSW before the current stocking situation. While prices are currently frustrating I completely understand where the Gray's are coming from, especially in today's market. But I don't see this pricing and lack of availability being a long-term outlook on things. I would see it as more of the ebb and flow of the market.
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Old 1 September 2018, 05:53 AM   #6
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Think it's pretty clear that the authorized dealers who liquidate slow-movers through secondary-market/gray resellers are getting more than MSRP by selling the more limited sport models through the same channels. Rolex still gets paid what it charges, and the price gouging keeps resale high, while justifying endless increases in MSRP and cost to ADs. Win-win for everyone except the regular consumer (like me) who might want to buy a Sub, GMT, Daytona or SS Sky Dweller. Blame Rolex for its policies forcing ADs to buy too much and too many SKUs; blame the ADs for forgetting their customers; but, don't blame the resellers--really only ones in this playing by any set of rules, IMO.


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Old 1 September 2018, 05:55 AM   #7
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Think it's pretty clear that the authorized dealers who liquidate slow-movers through secondary-market/gray resellers are getting more than MSRP by selling the more limited sport models through the same channels. Rolex still gets paid what it charges, and the price gouging keeps resale high, while justifying endless increases in MSRP and cost to ADs. Win-win for everyone except the regular consumer (like me) who might want to buy a Sub, GMT, Daytona or SS Sky Dweller. Blame Rolex for its policies forcing ADs to buy too much and too many SKUs; blame the ADs for forgetting their customers; but, don't blame the resellers--really only ones in this playing by any set of rules, IMO.


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And what rules might those be? Keep increasing price $500 every Time to see how far you can push it?
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Old 1 September 2018, 06:01 AM   #8
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It's disheartening but I'm sure they are taking lots of DJs and PMs as well, so they are hoping Rolex won't mind, plus the big ADs and Chains have a lot more power with Rolex. And we can all see there has been no great slowdown in production, it's just mostly going to VIPs or greys now one way or another.
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Old 1 September 2018, 06:10 AM   #9
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Sad. Even the big VIP's here or anywhere do not buy as many watches as a good TS does, so my guess is they (TS) are the real VIP's at the AD. So they are getting most of the good watches as well as some slow movers...

I have the watch itch of late, but have to wait it out. Not going to pay some crazy premium for a popular model and not going to buy something I can actually get, just to buy something. Seems weird that it is so hard to spend 10K these days...it is almost comical when you think about it.
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Old 1 September 2018, 06:13 AM   #10
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Most folks blame the Grey dealer for the high pricing and the lack of availability to the working man.

I tend to look at it differently.

I blame the AD’s who are very obviously selling to the Grey’s.

The AD’s signed a contract to buy from Rolex SA at a certain cost (40% or so off MSRP). The AD gets the product for contracted price, turns around and sells to the Grey dealer for however much over MSRP they can get away with and basically gives a great big F.U to their loyal customers.

In reality, the AD is making at least a 100% profit on their contracted price.

The Grey dealer who obviously is not contracted with Rolex SA is just selling at a marked up price that the market will bear, but is making nowhere near what the AD is making.
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Old 1 September 2018, 06:13 AM   #11
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You walk into any AD around the world and all you see are empty shops with Datejusts. The way things are at the moment, they might as well rename the ADs to ‘DateJust ADs’ and the grey dealers as the Rolex ‘Sports model dealers’. That’s how it is right now.
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Old 1 September 2018, 06:13 AM   #12
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Obviously Rolex says they are trying to curtail the gray market but it seems to me they're doing more to enable it.
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Old 1 September 2018, 06:14 AM   #13
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I'd like to visit a jeweler like this, lol. I've never seen some of the watches you just listed in person and we have no gray market jeweler around here that sells new-ish Rolex (there's one jeweler nearby that might have a single 1980's Submariner and a couple of Datejusts from an estate sale).

I'm not doubting you but it surprises me that they did all of this in plain sight of a customer. I would expect they'd be in the backroom with security cameras and whatnot. That's hundreds of thousands of dollars in inventory you're talking about there.
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Old 1 September 2018, 06:18 AM   #14
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And what rules might those be? Keep increasing price $500 every Time to see how far you can push it?


Sure. Buy at one price (takes cash and has some risk) and sell at a profit--same as anyone who's ever made money flipping a house or a garage-sale find.

If ADs are willing and Rolex stays willfully blind, why not? Think blaming the Grays is wrongheaded. Rolex and the ADs are the ones being disingenuous.

Essentially, Rolex's MSRP is meaningless for many models. The company clearly knows that and likes it that way. Resale is pushing/justifying price increases.

Myself, I do not plan to purchase another Rolex at a store until I can go to an AD or brand-boutique, try on the exact watch I might want, and walk out with it at no more than retail. Moreover, if retail gets too inflated--if the value to me for a watch I want to wear and enjoy (not flip) is no longer there--I won't be doing that, even if every model is available at "MSRP."


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Old 1 September 2018, 06:20 AM   #15
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Rolex should just shut down ADs at this point and only have Rolex boutiques for end user to look and handle.

Add direct to consumer online sales.

Cut out everyone else.

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Old 1 September 2018, 06:27 AM   #16
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The only remaining reason to enter
an AD...


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Old 1 September 2018, 06:28 AM   #17
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IMO, greys should stick to the 2nd hand market and vintage, not scoping up all the brand new watches from ADs.
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Old 1 September 2018, 06:31 AM   #18
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I'm not doubting you but it surprises me that they did all of this in plain sight of a customer. I would expect they'd be in the backroom with security cameras and whatnot. That's hundreds of thousands of dollars in inventory you're talking about there.
EXACTLY. Surprise is to put it mildly.

And, for the record, love to see the grey market totally out of the business of selling new Rolexes and stick to used..

And, for the States, while not being enforced, those grey Rolexes that are sourced internationally and brought over on commercial aircraft are possibly illegal in one, that they violate the sole importer contract held by Rolex USA, and two, any time the Rolex exceeds a certain value threshold but remains undeclared at the port of entry, congratulations, you might be a smuggler.. A significant percentage of new greys are internationally sourced.

Among other checks and balances, corporations in the US employ compliance attorneys. It is hard for me to imagine ADs getting away with or even trying everything alleged here. In July I ordered a 126660 Blue from an AD, it came in in just over a week, and I paid msrp. Did not get to see it first in a display, but there weren’t any shenanigans either.
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Old 1 September 2018, 06:35 AM   #19
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love to see Rolex coming out with their own Rolex boutiques that only sells sports models, and ADs that play with the greys can just go F themselves.
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Old 1 September 2018, 06:41 AM   #20
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I’m going to chime in and agree with this. Over the last few months I’ve noticed some incredibly shady patterns too. As soon as expected watch deliveries come in to ADs, miraculously hot, hard to get pieces seem show up on local grey dealer websites, stores and even local online private selling sites within 24 hours. All with that incredible markup. Even the prices for some of the SS watches have gone up locally so it’s only a 5-10% price difference between AD and Grey dealers.
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Old 1 September 2018, 06:47 AM   #21
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I won't frequent a grey. I don't like the business model. I'm willing to support my AD and wait for them to source me what I want. If the availability becomes so scare that greys are the only way to obtain a desirable piece, then I guess my collection will remain what it is which is not too shabby.
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Old 1 September 2018, 06:50 AM   #22
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I won't frequent a grey. I don't like the business model. I'm willing to support my AD and wait for them to source me what I want. If the availability becomes so scare that greys are the only way to obtain a desirable piece, then I guess my collection will remain what it is which is not too shabby.
+1, couldn't have said it better!
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Old 1 September 2018, 06:52 AM   #23
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Everyone to blame. AD and Grey Dealers.
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Old 1 September 2018, 06:56 AM   #24
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love to see Rolex coming out with their own Rolex boutiques that only sells sports models, and ADs that play with the greys can just go F themselves.
Don't think Rolex will ever go boutique. Brand-owned boutiques are significantly higher risk, and offering greater distribution control in return. The wholesale to AD system is much lower risk (AD eats all the overhead and takes on all the risk), but traditionally, a brand loses distribution control as a result.

The thing is, because Rolex has such a dominant market position, they can exercise control measures and impose other requirements (like forcing dealers to accept stock they don't ask for) that are not available to any other brand. They essentially have it both ways, at least for now.
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Old 1 September 2018, 07:07 AM   #25
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Everyone to blame. AD and Grey Dealers.
There’s your answer.
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Old 1 September 2018, 07:09 AM   #26
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Obviously Rolex says they are trying to curtail the gray market but it seems to me they're doing more to enable it.
Rolex is lying if they say they’re trying to stop it. The last pharmaceutical rep that lied to my face about their efforts to stop unauthorized third parties from getting their products got “asked” to leave my hospital.
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Old 1 September 2018, 07:22 AM   #27
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So they were all well over retail?
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Old 1 September 2018, 07:24 AM   #28
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I wondered into an independant jeweler "grey dealer" the other day because they had a watch listed online that I wanted to see in person. I was blown away at what they had in stock. Half a dozen Sub LV's, probably more BLNR's, Multiple SS Daytonas. Pretty much anything and everything in multiples that you could ever want that your AD has years of waitlists for. Sure I know there are a lot of these places around, thats not what hit me as interesting.

The interesting part was while I was there they were putting away their latest delivery, said it just came in. I watched them do it actually, probably 20 rolex in total. All in coffins, all fully stickered, warranty cards sticking to back of coffin. In this single shipment they pulled out 3 of the new "pepsi" GMTs. A SS daytona, blue Sky D, pretty much the who's who of big resale watches over list. They also pulled out some high end gold pieces as well as a platinum daytona. I can't say for sure but it seemed these were all from one source but it sure appeared that way.

Now you can believe your AD when they tell you they haven't received a single hard to get piece or only have been allocated 1 but I'm calling B.S. for the most part. Sure some tiny AD's don't get much but I truly feel like a lot of these companies are selling them for over list because they are in business to make money. Believe what you want, it only makes sense. These places aren't getting stock as one trickles in here and there, they have loads of hard to get watches. And I understand Rolex the mother company could reprimand or pull AD status from these companies if they caught them, but hasn't that been the case for decades with AD's suppling the grey market with slow moving watches at a great discount. These companies are in the money making business, why would they leave a ton of profit on the table when they sell you a 10k watch that is currently trading for 17-18k with ease. Its only logical some of them simply aren't. It was eye opening for me personally.
As much as I hate not being able to get my hands on every model I want when I want it (and I have a lot of the hard to get references) the statistics and concept is not correct here!

We have way more ADs than we have grey dealers and if you see “only” 6 LV, some Daytona’s and some BLNR at a grey dealer who buys some of the less desired models from ADs to get the hot ones or pays above MSRP to take it off of someone who wants to flip it then I’d say it’s not a high number

In statistics there’s a “center bias” concept, which is when you have numbers skewed by where you’re comparing your sample

This is by no means to defend or accuse anyone, it’s sinply to set some staestical analysis straight

Having said all that, I’d LOVE to get my hands on some of those models and had to “bundle” a black dial ss Daytona with another TT model to get it from an AD
As much as I hate it, but those are the rules of the game and I have the choice of playing by it or choosing another game!!
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Old 1 September 2018, 07:26 AM   #29
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I would say most AD’s are lying to some extent when they portray how limited their supply is of the hot models.. but it’s hard to not sell these to a TS when they’re walking in and buying 40-50 watches in one sitting sometimes.. As an AD, you would do what it takes to keep a customer of that caliber.. as someone mentioned, they are the real VIP’s
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Old 1 September 2018, 07:36 AM   #30
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So they were all well over retail?
yes they were all market grey prices.
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