Dose of Reality concerning the SS "Shortage"

[coralfarmer84]

Originally Posted by CoveWatch

I would say most AD’s are lying to some extent when they portray how limited their supply is of the hot models.. but it’s hard to not sell these to a TS when they’re walking in and buying 40-50 watches in one sitting sometimes.. As an AD, you would do what it takes to keep a customer of that caliber.. as someone mentioned, they are the real VIP’s

I understand, but the whole boo hoo we haven't received a single model of this is nonsense.

[coralfarmer84]

Originally Posted by DoctorA

As much as I hate not being able to get my hands on every model I want when I want it (and I have a lot of the hard to get references) the statistics and concept is not correct here!

We have way more ADs than we have grey dealers and if you see “only” 6 LV, some Daytona’s and some BLNR at a grey dealer who buys some of the less desired models from ADs to get the hot ones or pays above MSRP to take it off of someone who wants to flip it then I’d say it’s not a high number

In statistics there’s a “center bias” concept, which is when you have numbers skewed by where you’re comparing your sample

This is by no means to defend or accuse anyone, it’s sinply to set some staestical analysis straight

Having said all that, I’d LOVE to get my hands on some of those models and had to “bundle” a black dial ss Daytona with another TT model to get it from an AD
As much as I hate it, but those are the rules of the game and I have the choice of playing by it or choosing another game!!

This was just one place. A lot of people talk about the big city greys overseas where in hong kong or japan you can see tons of these models on display at grey dealers. I'm not saying every watch that comes into an AD is being sold to a grey either. I'm just saying a lot of AD's complain about not getting watches to the average joe to shut them up from asking for said watch. I've tried bundling and got nowhere. I'm not mad at the AD, I'm not mad at the Grey. Its all business.

[Dompropat]

Originally Posted by droptopman

Sad. Even the big VIP's here or anywhere do not buy as many watches as a good TS does, so my guess is they (TS) are the real VIP's at the AD. So they are getting most of the good watches as well as some slow movers...

I have the watch itch of late, but have to wait it out. Not going to pay some crazy premium for a popular model and not going to buy something I can actually get, just to buy something. Seems weird that it is so hard to spend 10K these days...it is almost comical when you think about it.

Couldn't have said it any better.

[Frits1980]

Seems to make sense to me. Although i have a friend who is working at a local small ad (none-US). He received 2 ss daytonas this year. 1 hulk. No Pepsi, no ss skydweller. Asked for a SS daytona many times, i'm 5th on the list but nothing extra he can do for me as the first 4 in line are paid for in full. I'm pretty sure if he could he would do some magic for me so i could get it sooner but he simply cannot

[VicLeChic]

Kind of sucks to be a Rolex fan these days and see such practice. I can only hope for a change of distribution model.

This guy talks about a model called brand cloud where distributors and ADs wouldn't buy the pieces anymore from the manufacturers. Instead of owning them they would have the right to sell them on their behalf. The manufacturer would control the final price to the end consumer. No more discount and hopefully no more reselling over retail to greys. Not sure if Rolex would be interested though since it seems to me greys help Rolex move their unpopular models.

https://youtu.be/UrN4YXAq9Hk

[Michigan_State]

I concur. Just a single data point, but I recently came across a hot piece, which was up for sale by a grey. Even had the guys name on the card. I don‘t believe that‘s just an incident, but it might of course be.

[schoolboy]

That’s interesting.

I mean obviously they get “hot” watches in, but I didn’t know they came in by the dozen!

Thanks for sharing OP


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[Chaching]

Originally Posted by jh225

Most folks blame the Grey dealer for the high pricing and the lack of availability to the working man.

I tend to look at it differently.

I blame the AD’s who are very obviously selling to the Grey’s.

The AD’s signed a contract to buy from Rolex SA at a certain cost (40% or so off MSRP). The AD gets the product for contracted price, turns around and sells to the Grey dealer for however much over MSRP they can get away with and basically gives a great big F.U to their loyal customers.

In reality, the AD is making at least a 100% profit on their contracted price.

The Grey dealer who obviously is not contracted with Rolex SA is just selling at a marked up price that the market will bear, but is making nowhere near what the AD is making.

I 100% agree with this! Rolex needs to investigate these ADs and Revoke AD Licenses ASAP!! This is the MAIN issue here!

[Juclaq]

Just tell me when Rolex start to open the tap. This trickle down theory is not working. $20 k for the pepsi GMT is outrageous

[tie219]

I spoke to a brick and mortar grey dealer while in Hong Kong and he said he receives most of his stock from the AD's directly. To be honest, I don't blame the grey dealers or AD's at all. As a seller, why would you sell your product for less than what a different buyer is willing to pay? That is the beauty of capitalism. Rolex is pricing their product well below the market price leading to a perceived shortage. Whether the demand remains or continues to rise is the only question that matters.

[_speedmaster_]

Originally Posted by jh225

Most folks blame the Grey dealer for the high pricing and the lack of availability to the working man.

I tend to look at it differently.

I blame the AD’s who are very obviously selling to the Grey’s.

The AD’s signed a contract to buy from Rolex SA at a certain cost (40% or so off MSRP). The AD gets the product for contracted price, turns around and sells to the Grey dealer for however much over MSRP they can get away with and basically gives a great big F.U to their loyal customers.

In reality, the AD is making at least a 100% profit on their contracted price.

The Grey dealer who obviously is not contracted with Rolex SA is just selling at a marked up price that the market will bear, but is making nowhere near what the AD is making.

Agree 100%. It’s painfully obvious the ADs are selling to greys. And the average Joe ends up paying for the AD’s profit and the profit the grey makes after sourcing over msrp.
You can also blame Rolex for doing essentially nothing to sort this out. It begins and ends with them.

[Burlington]

Originally Posted by uniqueMR

Everyone to blame. AD and Grey Dealers.

If i was being provocative, I would also add in the people paying double or triple list price at the greys, fuelling this current cycle of exorbitant resale prices.

The resellers are just responding to a market need. It’s the end consumer creating the demand.

If that demand to buy outside an AD didn’t exist then neither would the resellers mark-up pricing.

Can’t imagine many would be willing to sit on all that stock if it doesn’t move and would have to act accordingly to shift some pieces to maintain cash flow.

[ardvarkshorty]

I agree , i think this supply and demand is all BS
Are Rolex not producing as many watches??
Do they have a labour problem as not to produce watches as in the past?
Do they have financial problems that they cannot afford to pay labour to make the watches?
If they have no problems and are producing the watches ,are they storing them,and will release and flood the market?
This will bring the watch price down to what the watches are really worth,not the BS inflated price we are all paying for now

[VICI]

It’s quite upsetting to walk into an AD and in their most snooty voice, hear that you need to buy X diamond chain, platinum ring, other bs just to have the possibility of being called when a watch you want might come in.

Ridiculous technique and it’ll bite them in the ass when the economy takes a breather.

[RC999]

I spent £30k in my local AD in a single day in London (non-wait list pieces), refused to even put my name down for a SS sub, without spending another £10k. Quite ridiculous. Thankfully another AD a few miles away agreed to sell me a ND sub without any prior history at all. It all makes no sense! I know who will get my future business however!!

[airchitect]

I too would love to see greys relegated to used only. I’d also love to see Rolex kicking ADs watches people want instead of countless DJ’s that plummet in value 10min after its bought. For those things and more I think anyone buying a new Rolex right now is foolish to put it nicely. Paying msrp, let alone over msrp, for an item like this is ludicrous. Don’t let yourself get played.

[drmizzou]

Tough time to be starting to get into Rolex. Hopefully things will turn around but I have no expectation that things will - why would they!?

[ap1]

Originally Posted by RC999

I spent £30k in my local AD in a single day in London (non-wait list pieces), refused to even put my name down for a SS sub, without spending another £10k. Quite ridiculous. Thankfully another AD a few miles away agreed to sell me a ND sub without any prior history at all. It all makes no sense! I know who will get my future business however!!

Then why buy that other stuff. This is all a joke at this point. I bundled a few months ago, totally got taken and am unlikely to play that game again. That said, can’t buy what I’m interested in either. This is all getting out of control, if you sit back and think about it - watches are on the DECLINE

[Jack T]

Not sure I understand what’s going on. The OP is asserting that Rolex hasn’t necessarily cut down on production of SS sports models, rather that AD’s are diverting them to the grey market. Why? Are AD’s selling watches to the grey market for more than full MSRP? If not, sell them to regular customers.

[pigman08]

I stopped by my AD two days ago, and he showed me a display case that was devoid of any sport models, stainless or otherwise. He then told me that he hasn’t received a Submariner of any kind since November of last year. I tried not to let my skepticism show as he continued to tell me how they get no inventory coming in. The lack of inventory, along with the story I was told, lends some credence to the OP’s experience, in my mind.

On a side note: There were two small displays containing 3 GMT’s for sale in one and 3 Submariners for sale in the other. I asked about them, and I was told that the store owner had brought some pieces from his personal collection in to try to sell while the market is hot. I can’t remember what models the GMT’s were, but they were priced in the 12-15k range. The subs consisted of a 1680, 16800, and 168000 that he is selling as a set for 55k... I wish him the best of luck.


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[Michigan_State]

Originally Posted by Chaching

I 100% agree with this! Rolex needs to investigate these ADs and Revoke AD Licenses ASAP!! This is the MAIN issue here!

I think the main issue is that Rolex assigns lots and quote on quote forces AD‘s to act accordingly.

[njduffer]

The situation makes me sad. Called a grey market dealer in Florida. He had “3-4” brand new versions of the watch I wanted. The price was 2x MSRP. NO THANKS. Clearly there must be a market to pay those prices. As much as I want the watch there is no chance I’m paying double the price.

I blame Rolex and the ADs.

My local AD has talked about being a customer and the last 2x I showed them their argument makes no sense for me. While waiting for them to help me, I went to another dealer and got the watches. I won’t become a customer if they don’t sell me what I want.

[jcdeng]

Originally Posted by tie219

I spoke to a brick and mortar grey dealer while in Hong Kong and he said he receives most of his stock from the AD's directly. To be honest, I don't blame the grey dealers or AD's at all. As a seller, why would you sell your product for less than what a different buyer is willing to pay? That is the beauty of capitalism. Rolex is pricing their product well below the market price leading to a perceived shortage. Whether the demand remains or continues to rise is the only question that matters.

I think it is the other way around. Rolex is deliberately creating a SS sport shortage so people will think their watch is well worth the MSRP and will buy at MSRP no questions asked. Also makes price increase an non issue down the road.

If rolex really want to take care of their AD and end customers, why not cut the DJ production in half and put that into producing more desirable SS sport models? Because --> perceived value in scarcity!

[subtona]

Originally Posted by uniqueMR

Everyone to blame. AD and Grey Dealers.

What about the consumer... none of this happens if the end user doesn’t agree to it.

[Texasjim]

I hope Rolex isn’t sitting back and asking themselves, “if our customers are willing to pay way over retail via greys, is this enough justification to raise our retail prices”?

Greys are getting away with doubling prices on hot watches because folks are willing to pay those hyper markups.

Double retail...come on!

[uhren917]

Originally Posted by ferrissteve11

When there wasn't a shortage the Gray's had stock below retail. I bought a few at great prices from DavidSW before the current stocking situation. While prices are currently frustrating I completely understand where the Gray's are coming from, especially in today's market. But I don't see this pricing and lack of availability being a long-term outlook on things. I would see it as more of the ebb and flow of the market.

I keep seeing this argument all the time.

Well the Grey's arent going to sell to you at a loss, so they were getting the watch you got at a even a lower price. And to be in business probably at a much lower price so it is all relative.

[superstarmar]

Looks like the TS and VIP’s are keeping the
AD’s in business, apparently they don’t need us
anymore. Funny how Rolex doesn’t know this ...
Yeah right ...

It’s a sham, the whole thing is rigged ...

But like Gus said , the end user who’s paying the premium
is fueling the frenzy and craziness...

[Justinmg]

Originally Posted by Texasjim

I hope Rolex isn’t sitting back and asking themselves, “if our customers are willing to pay way over retail via greys, is this enough justification to raise our retail prices”?

Greys are getting away with doubling prices on hot watches because folks are willing to pay those hyper markups.

Double retail...come on!

Agree, if people didn’t pay the premium things might cool down, but I doubt that will happen.

[aleeboy]

In one of the world's biggest Rolex markets - hint, somewhere in Asia, the grey dealers have a complete lock-down on Rolex Sports inventories. One of them I visited had atleast 20 Daytonas, 20 Sub LVs, 5 BLNRs as well as the hard to get Datejust dial variations. The prices here have also reached levels that makes this place the best to buy at premium if you want it now - much like its property market.

I would recommend holding out, but I believe these sellers will keep inventories for the long term and work with their affiliates: shills, bloggers, auction houses, ADs to continue to suppress supply for the indefinite term. Rolex needs to take drastic action, else I feel the buyers market will completely turn their backs on Rolex... an analogy would be people in their 20's who got burned during the GFC and remain risk averse to the markets. It could very well happen. Shortages occur as the economy slows to allow for a quick buck.

[uhren917]

Originally Posted by tie219

..Rolex is pricing their product well below the market price leading to a perceived shortage. Whether the demand remains or continues to rise is the only question that matters.

I have also heard this statement ad nauseam as well. It is incorrect.

It is actually the market has priced their product above Rolex leading to the shortage. Rolex prices their items first not the other way around.