Global Econonmy and Rolex

[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Never said they were and there is only a shortage of easily available pieces due to high demand. However Rolex could actually create a shortage if they chose to.

Believe what you’d like. We’ll agree to disagree.

[EDL7]

The middle class in the US has been in the dumpsters for years..those are the guys who buy the cheaper Rolex..the OP's Subs etc..the bread and butter watches..
I think Rolex overplayed its hand..and there will be a reckoning...lol..it wont take much..
Just 2 years ago..AD's were offering good discounts..as well as Greys..
It will come again..just wait..

[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

At present there are too many interested buyers and not enough desirable references, Rolex is sold out.

If in the future the economy takes a turn and a percentage of buyers stop buying, Rolex will cut supply.

Rolex is going further upscale and the first rule of upscale club is to limit supply so that the brand doesn't dilute.

This is the new-norm. Get used to it.

Sounds like you have firsthand info from Rolex.

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

And yet, gray sellers (or trusted sellers) have no problem getting their hands on them.

If worldwide there are 1000 authorized Rolex dealers and 20 trusted grey dealers and each AD gets 1 SS Daytona and 2 SS BLRO's a year and flip them, there you go, "grey dealers having no problem getting their hands on them".

There aren't an equal amount of AD's and greys.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

At present there are too many interested buyers and not enough desirable references, Rolex is sold out.

If in the future the economy takes a turn and a percentage of buyers stop buying, Rolex will cut supply.

Rolex is going further upscale and the first rule of upscale club is to limit supply so that the brand doesn't dilute.

This is the new-norm. Get used to it.

True or not, this is the most logical scenario for Rolex.

They sell luxury, not watches.

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

Sounds like you have firsthand info from Rolex.

No, I just know a thing or two about brand strategies.

The end is coming for the Swiss watch industry as no 22 year old college graduates have ever worn a wristwatch in their lives, their parents giving them cellphones at age 12 to coordinate soccer pickups instead of Casio watches and then ultimately getting smartphones.

Rolex is running the Hermes playbook. Creating scarcity to drive the image and value of the brand higher. Turning time-telling tools into pieces of expensive jewelry so they are protected from functional obsolescence. Releasing references like the 500C and the BLRO with an eye dropper to create a social media firestorm.

All Rolex has to do from here-in is control production so that the same level of passion and desire exists and they can remain a healthy entity in a world without 8-track tapes, vinyl records, rotary phones, and wristwatches.

[joli160]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

No, I just know a thing or two about brand strategies.

The end is coming for the Swiss watch industry as no 22 year old college graduates have ever worn a wristwatch in their lives, their parents giving them cellphones at age 12 to coordinate soccer pickups instead of Casio watches and then ultimately getting smartphones.

Rolex is running the Hermes playbook. Creating scarcity to drive the image and value of the brand higher. Turning time-telling tools into pieces of expensive jewelry so they are protected from functional obsolescence. Releasing references like the 500C and the BLRO with an eye dropper to create a social media firestorm.

All Rolex has to do from here-in is control production so that the same level of passion and desire exists and they can remain a healthy entity in a world without 8-track tapes, vinyl records, rotary phones, and wristwatches.

This makes a lot of sense

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by Ravager135

Gray sellers get used and new pieces. They have multiple streams of access to the models including overseas. I just think it's a little bit apples and oranges.

I see it as apples to apples, because all authentic Rolexes in the market originate from ADs. If ADs don't get stock, ultimately that means the grays don't get stock. If grays have stock, that means ADs had it first. Even if it's coming from a different country, it still shows availability globally. If Rolex is shorting US ADs of stock in order to send it to different markets, that would explain a "shortage" domestically, but it doesn't mean Rolex is reducing supply globally to spike demand.

Additionally, we saw publication of Rolex UK's revenue for 2017, and it was at an all-time high, indicating there is no lack of sales. If supply were substantially down, why would sales be up? It can't all be Datejusts.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

No, I just know a thing or two about brand strategies.

The end is coming for the Swiss watch industry as no 22 year old college graduates have ever worn a wristwatch in their lives, their parents giving them cellphones at age 12 to coordinate soccer pickups instead of Casio watches and then ultimately getting smartphones.

Rolex is running the Hermes playbook. Creating scarcity to drive the image and value of the brand higher. Turning time-telling tools into pieces of expensive jewelry so they are protected from functional obsolescence. Releasing references like the 500C and the BLRO with an eye dropper to create a social media firestorm.

All Rolex has to do from here-in is control production so that the same level of passion and desire exists and they can remain a healthy entity in a world without 8-track tapes, vinyl records, rotary phones, and wristwatches.

Agreed!

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

This is the new-norm. Get used to it.

This from the guy who doesn't know what a bubble market is. I can't take you seriously.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

With the inevitable economic downturn approaching, I’m curious how this will impact Rolex and the current “wait lists”. I’m guessing in a year or two the tide will turn and ADs will no longer have the upper hand with customers. They will be calling customers begging for Rolex business. I understand the Rolex business hasn’t been hit hard by previous economic downturns but the current market can’t sustain this demand indefinitely.

Since it appears you are a psychic I’m not sure why you would ask such a question with your abilities you must be at the horse track every day and a billionaire by now.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

If worldwide there are 1000 authorized Rolex dealers and 20 trusted grey dealers and each AD gets 1 SS Daytona and 2 SS BLRO's a year and flip them, there you go, "grey dealers having no problem getting their hands on them".

There aren't an equal amount of AD's and greys.

Not really sure where you get your information from but you are wrong. Big time wrong.

[00Seven]

Consumer confidence definitely plays a bit part in all of this...have a pullback for 6-12 months and yes, we'll be seeing much more inventory on the shelves.

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by joli160

This makes a lot of sense

June 19, 2009 is the day that the Swiss watch industry died.

That was the day that the iPhone 3GS was released and all flip phones became immediately irrelevant to all but one user group- the middle schooler who needed a way to know when mom was coming to pick him up from soccer practice. Buy an iPhone 3GS and sign a two-year contract and we'll give you 2 flip-phones for free. Remember?

My son, born 1998, got a flip-phone for Christmas 2009. It was his number one request from Santa. He's 20 now. And has a fanatical Rolex collector of a father who has begged him to pick any Rolex he likes as his college graduation present. And he has zero interest. And he has never worn a wristwatch in his life. And when I bring up the fact that I'm leaving him my Daytona as a memory of me he looks at me as I would have looked at my father if he were leaving me his collection of Edison cylinders.

[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Since it appears you are a psychic I’m not sure why you would ask such a question with your abilities you must be at the horse track every day and a billionaire by now.

Seriously? You think an economic downturn won’t ever happen again?

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

This from the guy who doesn't know what a bubble market is. I can't take you seriously.

This is from the guy who thinks Rolex is a bubble market when its actually a long-term brand strategy. I can't take you seriously.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

Seriously? You think an economic downturn won’t ever happen again?

Sure. Just not for a while. Eventually someone will raise taxes and increase regulation and boom you’ll have an economic slowdown. It works absolutely every time it tried. Why do you want to rush to that? We just got out of a 10 year recession.

[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

June 19, 2009 is the day that the Swiss watch industry died.

That was the day that the iPhone 3GS was released and all flip phones became immediately irrelevant to all but one user group- the middle schooler who needed a way to know when mom was coming to pick him up from soccer practice. Buy an iPhone 3GS and sign a two-year contract and we'll give you 2 flip-phones for free. Remember?

My son, born 1998, got a flip-phone for Christmas 2009. It was his number one request from Santa. He's 20 now. And has a fanatical Rolex collector of a father who has begged him to pick any Rolex he likes as his college graduation present. And he has zero interest. And he has never worn a wristwatch in his life. And when I bring up the fact that I'm leaving him my Daytona as a memory of me he looks at me as I would have looked at my father if he were leaving me his collection of Edison cylinders.

Sounds like your kids grew up very privileged. Your small sample size of your children doesn’t extend to everyone. I didn’t wear a watch until I was 42, and it was a Rolex.

[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Sure. Just not for a while. Eventually someone will raise taxes and increase regulation and boom you’ll have an economic slowdown. It works absolutely every time it tried. Why do you want to rush to that? We just got out of a 10 year recession.

I don’t want to rush it but it’s invetible. We’re in the midst of the longest bull market ever and they don’t last forever as much as you and I would like it to!

[Ravager135]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

No, I just know a thing or two about brand strategies.

The end is coming for the Swiss watch industry as no 22 year old college graduates have ever worn a wristwatch in their lives, their parents giving them cellphones at age 12 to coordinate soccer pickups instead of Casio watches and then ultimately getting smartphones.

Rolex is running the Hermes playbook. Creating scarcity to drive the image and value of the brand higher. Turning time-telling tools into pieces of expensive jewelry so they are protected from functional obsolescence. Releasing references like the 500C and the BLRO with an eye dropper to create a social media firestorm.

All Rolex has to do from here-in is control production so that the same level of passion and desire exists and they can remain a healthy entity in a world without 8-track tapes, vinyl records, rotary phones, and wristwatches.

I don't know if I completely subscribed to this notion, but I think there is a lot of truth to it. 18-22 year old kids find their way into luxury items as wealth comes. In the past, with the wrist watch being a far more functional item, people had cheaper ones and grew into Rolex as they made more money. I think oddly enough "kids these days" will grow up with cell phones and Apple watches and grow into anachronistic displays of wealth. I was never interested in vinyl, pens, watches, etc when I was young. I grew up during the cassette era, loathed pens as a lefty, and wore a cheap Shark watch; I found my way into collecting these items as I made more money.

That said, the pivot Rolex is making is spot on. If your company produces a product that no one really needs or practically has a better alternative, you make your product luxury. There is no doubt Rolex has been a status symbol for sometime, but I completely agree with you that for Rolex to persist into the future it needs to be perceived as high end as possible. While PP, AP, VC, and ALS will likely always stand atop the horological podium, Rolex has brand recognition and it can emphasize that by restriction of product.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

I don’t want to rush it but it’s invetible. We’re in the midst of the longest bull market ever and they don’t last forever as much as you and I would like it to!

I have no idea what the stock market is going to do. I stopped trusting them after we all got the shaft in 2008. There’s only a few dozen men and women that know how to play that game and they win the matter what.

So don’t ask me what Wall Street is doing but I do know what Main Street is doing. I know dozens and dozens of small business owners between 5 million and 30 million dollar companies and all of them are finally kicking butt once again. I don’t know how long it will last but I would like to think for quite some time. This country is great enough to never have to go into recession again.

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

Sounds like your kids grew up very privileged. Your small sample size of your children doesn’t extend to everyone. I didn’t wear a watch until I was 42, and it was a Rolex.

Bingo! You're exactly who Rolex is catering to in the future.

No need for a watch as a functional timepiece, got to a certain age, have the wife, the house, the kids, have that VP title, got a nice bonus, time to reward yourself with a shiny piece of jewelry, a status symbol that impresses the boardroom crowd and makes you feel good too.

Rolex isn't concerning itself with the 27 year old junior executive or his budget woes and they aren't starving for every last dollar that crawls into a mom-and-pop AD. The survival of Rolex depends upon making my "who-needs-a-wristwatch?" 20 year old son yearn for one of their timepieces when he turns 42.

[google]

Originally Posted by jacksonstone

and yet, gray sellers (or trusted sellers) have no problem getting their hands on them.

exactly

[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

Bingo! You're exactly who Rolex is catering to in the future.

No need for a watch as a functional timepiece, got to a certain age, have the wife, the house, the kids, have that VP title, got a nice bonus, time to reward yourself with a shiny piece of jewelry, a status symbol that impresses the boardroom crowd and makes you feel good too.

Rolex isn't concerning itself with the 27 year old junior executive or his budget woes and they aren't starving for every last dollar that crawls into a mom-and-pop AD. The survival of Rolex depends upon making my "who-needs-a-wristwatch?" 20 year old son yearn for one of their timepieces when he turns 42.

I never yearned for a Rolex. I had zero interest in Rolex until my wife dusted off her father’s Rolex from 1969. I loved the idea she was able to wear an heirloom from 1969 and it still worked and still looked beautiful. That started my interest.

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

I never yearned for a Rolex. I had zero interest in Rolex until my wife dusted off her father’s Rolex from 1969. I loved the idea she was able to wear an heirloom from 1969 and it still worked and still looked beautiful. That started my interest.

That’s awesome. And outlier enthusiasts like you and I will still exist in the future, not much different than today’s vinyl fans.

I’m referring to the big picture in a world that’s about to be flooded with college graduates to whom a wristwatch is meaningless.

[Jari from Finland]

I think that waiting lists may become a little shorter due to probable cancellation of the orders among some customers.

[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

That’s awesome. And outlier enthusiasts like you and I will still exist in the future, not much different than today’s vinyl fans.

I’m referring to the big picture in a world that’s about to be flooded with college graduates to whom a wristwatch is meaningless.

Only time will tell, but currently Rolex sales are at an all time high. Of course this trend is connected in some part to the long-standing bull market.

[ALF61]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

This is from the guy who thinks Rolex is a bubble market when its actually a long-term brand strategy. I can't take you seriously.

Yep, I agree.

[ALF61]

Originally Posted by SFBAY

Only time will tell, but currently Rolex sales are at an all time high. Of course this trend is connected in some part to the long-standing bull market.

There is no question that good things come to those who wait. Question is how long is the wait and will one be around by then. You see anticipating events is no good unless you know when. And of course you dont.

[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by ALF61

There is no question that good things come to those who wait. Question is how long is the wait and will one be around by then. You see anticipating events is no good unless you know when. And of course you dont.

If you’re willing to go the route of grey market premiums, then kudos to you for having done that.