Will you invest in U.S STOCK NOW ?

[Swearengen]

The Sage of Omaha says it's not about timing the market, but time in the market

Originally Posted by Letsgodiving

No way to predict the bottom so I buy on the way down and will hold long-term. The only way to lump-sum at the market bottom is to be extremely lucky and luck is not a strategy.

[Chester01]

Yep, when one is in it for the long term, keep buying. The ability to catch it at the exact “right” point is almost a guessing game.

[yoast]

DCA is the way

[ronricks]

I’m still young and will continue to max 401k, Roth, and HSA no matter what.

[kieselguhr]

Originally Posted by superdog

Well, there is a very real possibility the down turn is just getting started.

But I do realize that convention wisdom says keep buying, go long term. I do get it. And mostly agree with it.

I simply think it’s better to buy low. And all indications appear to point to further declines all around.

With last weeks blood bath, I am inclined to believe that But at the same time I was warned long ago not to be too emotional about this stuff or I’ll end up losing more money and opportunities.

[superdog]

Maybe I am making a mistake. But I just decided to free up more cash. Selling more stocks.

I am still invested. But I simply believe this is going to get worse. I think it is going to get far worse.

Earnings season is going to be bad. The war is not getting better. Inflation is not going anywhere. Housing is starting to come down. And we have a government that is literally incapable of finding compromise.

I realize that I am maybe making a mistake. I get it. But I see it as two ways:

1. It goes up and I am mad at myself for losing money.
2. It does down further and I am mad at myself for not selling when I could have.

If 1. happens, I won't be all that mad at myself. I will reinvest and hold for years. And for number 2. I am already mad at myself for not selling sooner.

Taking advantage of the nice bounce today.

[Star Ferry]

Dollar cost average to mitigate the risk of entering at the “wrong” time

[stockae92]

I buy when it goes up, I buy when it goes down. Ok, I buy more when it REALLY goes down.

I am the buy and hold type. I will do it different if I have crystal ball to buy exactly when is the top and the bottom ..

[walds11]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

Dollar cost average to mitigate the risk of entering at the “wrong” time

This is what I do and I am able to sleep at night.

[Zoomerang]

Originally Posted by brandrea

As an FYI, many oil and gas companies will be debt free in the coming quarters. If that doesn’t resonate, read it again, debt FREE. They are already spinning off unbelievable cash flow which is flowing back to share holders. They’ve finally figured out the plot … no more dollars going into exploration and drilling. Run out the reserves, and pay the money back to the shareholders. Some of these companies have 30+ -40 years of reserves.

Taking notes on this Brian! Are there any specific energy companies you like beyond the big ones?

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

Dollar cost average to mitigate the risk of entering at the “wrong” time

Originally Posted by walds11

This is what I do and I am able to sleep at night.

I don’t disagree.

I simply could not continue watching the declines, knowing that more are coming. Imho, it’s plain to see. We are just getting started.

I realize I’m going against conventional wisdom. And if I lose out on some upside, it will be okay.

I just can’t help but think…if I know it’s going down further, would I prefer to ride it down, or buy back when prices are lower.

If this works, the payoff will be monumental over a 10 year period. If it doesn’t, I’ll lose a few points of upside.

Not going to try and time it perfectly. Simply want the midterms to happen, the next earnings update you take place, and the inevitable shift in unemployment to happen.

Once they do, I start to deploy cash bi-weekly.

[Andy0331]

Originally Posted by superdog

Maybe I am making a mistake. But I just decided to free up more cash. Selling more stocks.
Taking advantage of the nice bounce today.

You're never completely wrong to take profits. I'm positive we've all kicked ourselves over the years for being too greedy (or foolishly optimistic).

[330ci]

Originally Posted by superdog

I don’t disagree.

I simply could not continue watching the declines, knowing that more are coming. Imho, it’s plain to see. We are just getting started.

I realize I’m going against conventional wisdom. And if I lose out on some upside, it will be okay.

I just can’t help but think…if I know it’s going down further, would I prefer to ride it down, or buy back when prices are lower.

If this works, the payoff will be monumental over a 10 year period. If it doesn’t, I’ll lose a few points of upside.

Not going to try and time it perfectly. Simply want the midterms to happen, the next earnings update you take place, and the inevitable shift in unemployment to happen.

Once they do, I start to deploy cash bi-weekly.

I unloaded some shares today as well. I'm in it for the long haul, but like you, starting to realize how dumb it is to risk my security in this market with the dollar holding strong against other currency. The crypto I have a harder time letting go of because the market caps on alot of the projects I'm invested in i believe in far more than any of the companies I'm invested in. And realistically alot of the Biotechs I'm interested in I have personal moral and ethical concerns over their potential uses in the future. I made a ton off of precious metals during the 08-12 years and with the current trends, I'm hoping history repeats itself with better results.

Reading that article you posted about 13.5% of $1b companies work operating @ $-200M/yr compared to 3.5%? In 08, and it mirroring plenty of my own feelings towards market conditions convinced me to play it a bit safer. Still going to invest into some projects I believe. But going to save a bit more liquidity and stop worrying about the markets so much. DCAing really hasn't been that fun lately lol even with the good days, things are trending downward

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Zoomerang

Taking notes on this Brian! Are there any specific energy companies you like beyond the big ones?

In the mid cap space I like White Cap Resources. Pays a 5% dividend and is a net zero carbon emitter, so it fits into pension funds that cannot otherwise invest in the space due to esg rules.

I also like MEG Energy. Should be debt free by third quarter of 2023.

I also like ERF Enerplus as it spins off tons of free cash flow.

Lastly TOU Tourmaline. Large cash flow, no debt, and largest nat gas producer in Canada. The CEO is legend in the space amd owns over 1 billion in his own stock.

I follow Eric Nuttall (partner at Nine Point Capital). He's the numbers guru but easy enough to understand.

As with anything, you can't put all your eggs in one basket, but if you are a believer in the energy space these companies are worth a look.

Edit: I should’ve said, these are Canadian listed companies but they may be listed on US exchanges or as ADR’s

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

[BillA]

Originally Posted by superdog

I don’t disagree.

I simply could not continue watching the declines, knowing that more are coming. Imho, it’s plain to see. We are just getting started.

I realize I’m going against conventional wisdom. And if I lose out on some upside, it will be okay.

I just can’t help but think…if I know it’s going down further, would I prefer to ride it down, or buy back when prices are lower.

If this works, the payoff will be monumental over a 10 year period. If it doesn’t, I’ll lose a few points of upside.

Not going to try and time it perfectly. Simply want the midterms to happen, the next earnings update you take place, and the inevitable shift in unemployment to happen.

Once they do, I start to deploy cash bi-weekly.

It is anyones guess, so you may be right or wrong. The only problem with your strategy is that when you sell, even though the market has tanked you have gains because we have been is a bull market prior to 2022 for over 10 years. So even if your values are lower than a year ago, and we can assume they are , you will have gains and therefore will get a 1099. To me this is a double whammy……selling low and paying taxes. Ouch.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by BillA

It is anyones guess, so you may be right or wrong. The only problem with your strategy is that when you sell, even though the market has tanked you have gains because we have been is a bull market prior to 2022 for over 10 years. So even if your values are lower than a year ago, and we can assume they are , you will have gains and therefore will get a 1099. To me this is a double whammy……selling low and paying taxes. Ouch.

Believe me sir, this was taken into account.

Sold a lot that I was up on. Sold more that I was down on. I’ll be getting a tax credit for sure.

For me, for better or worse, most of my money invested started in 2020. And I’m not up 23ish % since 2020. Or in the last 10 years for that matter.

[BroncoOne]

If you have a long term horizon you will be just fine if you buy companies with solid earnings and management. Buy cash flow.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

If you have a long term horizon you will be just fine if you buy companies with solid earnings and management. Buy cash flow.

100%

[BillA]

When I was a kid and my dad was teaching me the stock market he said the following to me:


The Bulls make money
The Bears make money
But the Pigs don’t make a cent.

[espanol]

Lots of effort here, so bear with me.

Would I invest in US equities today? Without hesitation.

Investing is a personal decision. Each and every one of us on this forum has a different time horizon, risk tolerance, and understanding of how markets (mainly equities) operate. I’ll share a bit of my knowledge, although it’s only worth what you paid for it ($0.00).

First, most markets for marketable securities are FORWARD thinking. This includes equities. Meaning, today’s prices are an attempt to price future results. Whether that be poor earnings, higher inflation, higher unemployment, etc. Many investors forget this important fact, and assume that poor earnings will automatically equate to a cratering market. That is simply not true. Why are broader equity markets down YTD? Well, investors have attempted to price in poor future results, simple as that. That said, if your own research and due-diligence points toward worse results than most forecasts, then consider selling to dampen losses in the short-term. Just remember, markets move fast, and an attempt to successfully time the trough of a dip is extremely difficult, and doesn’t equate to much alpha over staying invested:

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/d...et-timing-work

So it begs the question, why take on substantial risk in pursuit of marginally better returns? Investing is a game of risk-adjusted return; the goal is to maximize an investor’s rate of return for each incremental unit of risk he/she is willing to stomach.

For those that sold early on, you’re up! In fact, you’re up big! The impetus of making such a shift to begin with is indicative of feeling the need to speculate on events that are out of an investor’s control. How many investment gurus have successfully made such decisions time and time again? Zero. Just like at a casino, you have to know when you’ve been the statistical anomaly, and get the ____ out!

Second, by investing in mainly index funds, one is primarily exposed to market risk. This strategy is intended to be ‘lazy,’ and to the disciplined investors, will offer returns that will not only be sufficient long-term, but also (highly) likely to outperform that of any active peer group.

I also noticed many citing buying individual stocks on the forum. By purchasing individual stocks, an investor is now exposed to the above, plus idiosyncratic risk (among other factors). Meaning, concentrated risk on that one security and the underlying future performance. YTD, growth names have declined at a much greater rate than value, yet, as I think of my own client many biases, the majority have an affinity to hold onto tech names. How confident are you that you’ve found the FUTURE winners? How willing are you to stick with those, and when will you know the future growth prospects are not worth the current price? Many don’t realize this, but by merely investing into say, the S&P500, those decisions happen automatically for you. On average, 25-30 stocks are replaced on any given year within the SP500. Great, right? How much effort did you put into those decisions? Zero.

Finally, I am of the opinion that trading technology has had, and will have, an adverse impact on portfolio returns. I’m currently researching the topic rather heavily, and initial findings are unsurprising; those that actively trade, tend to underperform those that do not. Happy to share more detail for anyone interested.

Final point, one must not forget that by investing in index funds or individual stocks, you are buying into actual businesses. Unlike the “General” forum here, these are not ‘investments’ in Rolex watches, these are productive businesses with revenues, expenses, retained earnings, and many that pay and will continue to pay dividends. These businesses will continue to be on the cutting-edge of product development, and thus, the businesses will grow over time, as would an investment.

Not to get too personal, but my late grandfather was in agriculture. At times he did great, and at times there was little to harvest. Did he panic sell the land and equipment every time things went (way) south. and then attempt to re-buy at a lower price ~6 months later? Absolutely not. He invested heavily early on, reinvested over time, stayed the course, and over time he made a fortune. Just because we have the ability to instantaneously trade on our phone apps, doesn’t mean we should.

To support, lest we forget the brilliant research of Paul B. Andreassen (https://scholar.google.com/scholarhl...%2C33&as_sdtp=) “People who receive frequent news updates on their investments earn lower returns than those who get no news.” Or the legendary work from Benjamin Graham in “The Intelligent Investor” from 1949, “The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.”

Note: all of this is my opinion. Please act on your own research and DD, not mine.

[Mifune]

Originally Posted by Mifune

time in the market is better than timing the market

dca

Originally Posted by Swearengen

The Sage of Omaha says it's not about timing the market, but time in the market

^Ahem!

are you an Investor or a Trader?

[crew]

Originally Posted by BillA

When I was a kid and my dad was teaching me the stock market he said the following to me:


The Bulls make money
The Bears make money
But the Pigs don’t make a cent.

Your dad was a wise man.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by crew

Your dad was a wise man.

Thank you for the comment, he was a wise man, I miss him terribly.

[Zoomerang]

Originally Posted by brandrea

In the mid cap space I like White Cap Resources. Pays a 5% dividend and is a net zero carbon emitter, so it fits into pension funds that cannot otherwise invest in the space due to esg rules.

I also like MEG Energy. Should be debt free by third quarter of 2023.

I also like ERF Enerplus as it spins off tons of free cash flow.

Lastly TOU Tourmaline. Large cash flow, no debt, and largest nat gas producer in Canada. The CEO is legend in the space amd owns over 1 billion in his own stock.

I follow Eric Nuttall (partner at Nine Point Capital). He's the numbers guru but easy enough to understand.

As with anything, you can't put all your eggs in one basket, but if you are a believer in the energy space these companies are worth a look.

Edit: I should’ve said, these are Canadian listed companies but they may be listed on US exchanges or as ADR’s

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

Thank you! I'll start doing my reading into these..

[superdog]

I admit, I feel pretty lucky right now. Don't get me wrong, I am still taking a beating, but all things considered, I feel I have gotten pretty lucky.

Took two days for the items I sold to go through, so I got the bump of 100 points on about half and the bump of about 200 points on the rest.

And while I originally wanted to sell a good portion in January, I waited until April. Clearly, I would have been better off sooner, but hard to complain. I have saved a small fortune. And more importantly, I now have more $$ to purchase stocks at a lower price.

I sit now with mostly cash or fixed income earning between 2.7 and 3.8 ish. I figure that is better than the continued slide south.

Not trying and time the market here. I am just waiting for a few key indicators and then I start deploying capital in a very methodical way. All blue chip, long term plays.

Timing the market is not something I am trying to do, or will try to do. I simply feel this is a unique situation.

I agree that timing the market as a strategy is folly. I also think that the FA's all want the money to stay in the markets because that is how the benefit the most. And while a strategy of timing the market is not likely to help any investor, and conventional wisdom says, this is the way we have always done it...again this is a unique situation.

The biggest mistake in business is saying "this is how we have always done things"

while I fully understand why people have a plan and stick to it, it just feels like this is an opportunity to save. and the more you save, the more opportunity we will have to buy in the future.

[330ci]

Originally Posted by superdog

I admit, I feel pretty lucky right now. Don't get me wrong, I am still taking a beating, but all things considered, I feel I have gotten pretty lucky.

Took two days for the items I sold to go through, so I got the bump of 100 points on about half and the bump of about 200 points on the rest.

And while I originally wanted to sell a good portion in January, I waited until April. Clearly, I would have been better off sooner, but hard to complain. I have saved a small fortune. And more importantly, I now have more $$ to purchase stocks at a lower price.

I sit now with mostly cash or fixed income earning between 2.7 and 3.8 ish. I figure that is better than the continued slide south.

Not trying and time the market here. I am just waiting for a few key indicators and then I start deploying capital in a very methodical way. All blue chip, long term plays.

Timing the market is not something I am trying to do, or will try to do. I simply feel this is a unique situation.

I agree that timing the market as a strategy is folly. I also think that the FA's all want the money to stay in the markets because that is how the benefit the most. And while a strategy of timing the market is not likely to help any investor, and conventional wisdom says, this is the way we have always done it...again this is a unique situation.

The biggest mistake in business is saying "this is how we have always done things"

while I fully understand why people have a plan and stick to it, it just feels like this is an opportunity to save. and the more you save, the more opportunity we will have to buy in the future.

Berkshire Hathaway was sitting on close to 150billion at the beginning of the year. Seems to be alot of quotes from the man, but even he has the sense to realize an oversaturated market, park some cash and deploy it when its tactile. Personally I think he jumped the gun on some of his purchases. But thats when he can fall back on his "time in the market is better than timing the market" quote.

Definitely a very unique situation/opportunity ahead.

[logo]

Originally Posted by superdog

The biggest mistake in business is saying "this is how we have always done things"

while I fully understand why people have a plan and stick to it, it just feels like this is an opportunity to save. and the more you save, the more opportunity we will have to buy in the future.

Agree 100% with this. The investor mindset ≠ the same as the business mindset.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by superdog

The biggest mistake in business is saying "this is how we have always done things" ….

Originally Posted by logo

Agree 100% with this. The investor mindset ≠ the same as the business mindset.

There’s another saying in investing … “this time it’s different” John Templeton.

Listen, there are a ton of ways to make money in the market, no right or wrong. About all we have to look at is history, so if you believe that long term the market chart goes from the bottom left to the top right … “this time” is no different than 1987, 2000, 2007, 2020. At least those are the ones I remember

An excerpt from Money.com about market corrections:

“A market correction, which is a 10% to 20% dip in stock prices from their most recent highs, is scary when it happens. But afterwards, markets tend to rebound — often, they rebound quite well. In fact, for every time the S&P 500 has dipped at least 10% since 1980, the index was higher one year later 90% of the time, and up 25% on average.”

So yes, if you can accurately time the above, no when to get out and when to get back in, you’re probably better than most money mangers on the planet. Sounds easy in theory.

Not saying that’s you Seth, you’ve made your case above and sounds reasonable. and much depends on your time horizon and why you are invested. Short term, long term, etc.

All I know, is that over these correction periods I refer to above, I’m glad I stuck it out. I’ve got some stocks that are now yielding more than the original share price

By all means having dry powder is always nice at a time like this, but not being invested is just a risky IMHO.

[logo]

Originally Posted by brandrea

There’s another saying in investing … “this time it’s different” John Templeton.

Listen, there are a ton of ways to make money in the market, no right or wrong. About all we have to look at is history, so if you believe that long term the market chart goes from the bottom left to the top right … “this time” is no different than 1987, 2000, 2007, 2020. At least those are the ones I remember

An excerpt from Money.com about market corrections:

“A market correction, which is a 10% to 20% dip in stock prices from their most recent highs, is scary when it happens. But afterwards, markets tend to rebound — often, they rebound quite well. In fact, for every time the S&P 500 has dipped at least 10% since 1980, the index was higher one year later 90% of the time, and up 25% on average.”

So yes, if you can accurately time the above, no when to get out and when to get back in, you’re probably better than most money mangers on the planet. Sounds easy in theory.

Not saying that’s you Seth, you’ve made your case above and sounds reasonable. and much depends on your time horizon and why you are invested. Short term, long term, etc.

All I know, is that over these correction periods I refer to above, I’m glad I stuck it out. I’ve got some stocks that are now yielding more than the original share price

By all means having dry powder is always nice at a time like this, but not being invested is just a risky IMHO.

The businessman in me told the investor in me to sell (most) holdings earlier this year, which was parlayed into getting my new startup off the ground. Sometimes timing the market doesn’t actually have to do with the market, but rather balancing risk/reward vs other opportunity.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by logo

The businessman in me told the investor in me to sell (most) holdings earlier this year, which was parlayed into getting my new startup off the ground. Sometimes timing the market doesn’t actually have to do with the market, but rather balancing risk/reward vs other opportunity.

Best of luck on the new business venture