Talking stocks, trading, and investing in general

[gabrielnovar]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

TSLA reaches 420, party on Elon and congrats.

yup congrats, once people realize its a tech company not a car company...its very undervalued.

Cathy Woods is spot on.

[superdog]

okay. who else thinks this is the rally before the gigantic shit storm?

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by superdog

okay. who else thinks this is the rally before the gigantic shit storm?

Me, but I've also been in that camp for too long!! Happy to have crazy gains in many of my biotech holdings these past few months.

[CamSLC]

Originally Posted by superdog

okay. who else thinks this is the rally before the gigantic shit storm?

I think it's fair to feel that way. People have been feeling it for a while (2013/2014?). Really hard to guess the market. I don't expect a giant shit storm personally, but I'm decently prepared for anything.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by superdog

okay. who else thinks this is the rally before the gigantic shit storm?

I have felt that way since 2013 based on macro fundamentals. I was dead wrong and certainly missed out on some easy money. But it's really not all that important to me and I sleep like a baby. If you bring enough in who cares really. I like knowing that nothing outside my control is going to alter my future plans.

[austinp]

Not really worried about it. It does seem like a correction should come soon. Markets go up and down but mostly up. Invest in good companies. They don't usually go down as much during the corrections and they usually recover faster. The gains have been incredible but averaging down some positions wouldn't be the worst thing. It's a marathon.

Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by superdog

okay. who else thinks this is the rally before the gigantic shit storm?

The market is into overbought territory, no question.

What you need to focus on is, what is the alternative to equities at this point?

Even if there is a correction, it will be another buying opportunity. Until the fundamental picture changes the trend is still up.

[PeqFB]

I think the market is high so I buy good quality stocks on dips and sell on the rebound making a small percentage gain. Unfortunately the market does not think the market is high because after I sell these stocks they keep going up and up.
Also, I know someone who says the market is too high and is waiting for it to drop to invest...he's been saying that for the last 10 years. Think how much money he could have made!

[superdog]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I have felt that way since 2013 based on macro fundamentals. I was dead wrong and certainly missed out on some easy money. But it's really not all that important to me and I sleep like a baby. If you bring enough in who cares really. I like knowing that nothing outside my control is going to alter my future plans.

I am going to reach out to you offline.


I have questions....

[superdog]

Originally Posted by beshannon

The market is into overbought territory, no question.

What you need to focus on is, what is the alternative to equities at this point?

Even if there is a correction, it will be another buying opportunity. Until the fundamental picture changes the trend is still up.

It just keeps going up, for no other reason then the fed made some questionable decisions regarding interest rates?

At least that's what I keep reading and hearing.

I am right now 55 stocks/35 fixed. At 45 years old my advisor tells me I am invested like an old man. I am okay with that. I have about 10% in cash. IMHO, that is not enough.

But where is the balance? If I have more in cash, I am not taking advantage of all these nice gains lately. And yet, I like to keep a large fixed position to know that I am relatively safe. Even if I am making less money than I could, the security is appealing to me. And at the same time, if things do tank, I can take money out of fixed income and buy more equities. At least that is pretty much the plan right now.

It just appears to me that when people get cocky, thats when things really tank. I read an article yesterday predicting a 50% correction.

What to focus on instead of equities? I do have two rental properties along with my own home. But one rental is for my MIL and she just covers expenses. I have done some math, and even if I buy in cash 5 such places that my
MIL lives in, I would not make much money. And the hassle does not appear to be worth it. So I am not really that interested in real estate.

If you have any suggestions, I all ears. I think about this stuff all the time and I just don't have any good answers.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by superdog

I am right now 55 stocks/35 fixed. At 45 years old my advisor tells me I am invested like an old man. I am okay with that. I have about 10% in cash. IMHO, that is not enough.

But where is the balance? If I have more in cash, I am not taking advantage of all these nice gains lately. And yet, I like to keep a large fixed position to know that I am relatively safe. Even if I am making less money than I could, the security is appealing to me. And at the same time, if things do tank, I can take money out of fixed income and buy more equities. At least that is pretty much the plan right now.

That sounds like a good plan, no need to second guess yourself.

What is your time horizon for needing the money? What are your goals?

That is the area you should focus on. You are moderately risk averse and there is nothing wrong with that.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by beshannon

That sounds like a good plan, no need to second guess yourself.

What is your time horizon for needing the money? What are your goals?

That is the area you should focus on. You are moderately risk averse and there is nothing wrong with that.

appreciate the feedback. and you are 100% correct. I should simply let it all play out as I have planned. I do have a plan, and it is for the long term. Definitely risk averse and I do think that it will benefit me at some point in the near future.

Wont need the money for 20 years. So I should just sit back and not worry. But I am a bit of a worrier.

and I am really enjoying learning about all of this.

I had picked Netflix, Tesla and Lulu Lemon as winners years ago. I didn't have the balls to pull the trigger. Instead I picked Boeing and cannabis stocks....

thanks again for the feedback. It is appreciated.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by superdog

appreciate the feedback. and you are 100% correct. I should simply let it all play out as I have planned. I do have a plan, and it is for the long term. Definitely risk averse and I do think that it will benefit me at some point in the near future.

Wont need the money for 20 years. So I should just sit back and not worry. But I am a bit of a worrier.

and I am really enjoying learning about all of this.

I had picked Netflix, Tesla and Lulu Lemon as winners years ago. I didn't have the balls to pull the trigger. Instead I picked Boeing and cannabis stocks....

thanks again for the feedback. It is appreciated.

So you can do research and spot trends. Learn from that.

Next time, buy a small position and see how it does. Most people make the mistake of committing too much capital to a single position and regret taking a loss.

As far as the three you have mentioned, while this is not a recommendation take a look at their long term growth potential and consider adding them on the correction you fear.

I own LULU and feel it is a good long term hold as their growth is very steady and their strategy is solid. They own the ath-leisure space.

[healer]

It’s nasty today! Will wait for Monday for a rebound. Let’s keep the spirit high:) I need a beer. Lol

[SMD]

Originally Posted by superdog

okay. who else thinks this is the rally before the gigantic shit storm?

Not me. Other than the indices being at record highs, what is the negative info that will be taking down the economy? Consumer spending is still strong. Interest rates are record lows and in all reality will be that way for some time (though I do sometimes worry about a long term deflationary environment like Japan given our demographic trends and shrinking immigration). Employment is at record highs, wages are increasing (though often eaten up by increased health costs), debt levels not nearly as crazy as they were a decade ago, lower corp taxes, and on and on.

As long as the fed put continues (and there is zero chance of that anytime soon), institutional investors need to be in equities (or they get crushed by year end comps) as there is nowhere else to generate return.

For me it doesn't really matter though -- all my money in equities is in retirement accounts that I will not be touching for decades. So all I do is dollar cost average into the market every single day and sleep like a baby (at least when it comes to the market gyrations).

One final thought -- 99.9% of people would be best to grab the gift John Bogle gave us with both hands and run. Do not pick individual stocks, do not try and time the market. Buy into the a broad based low cost index on a regular basis and call it a day. Very, very few professional investors, even with thousands of analysts around the world and more money and tech than god consistently beat the market. So the chances of any of us schmoes that don't have access to a prime brokerage desk at a bulge bracket bank with the favorable terms and leverage available to them are going to do it are very slim.

[Letsgodiving]

An interesting short read showing how a hypothetical investor who saved a moderate amount and only invested at market peaks still ended up a millionaire.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/201...-market-timer/

Pick an asset allocation you are comfortable with and don't listen to the so-called experts as they push doom & gloom.

[beshannon]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savi...ing/ar-AAFUsGS

I enjoy Cramer although he can be an acquired taste. I have read his books and I am a member of his Action Alerts club. This is a good starting point for some, Try his "Get Rich Carefully" book.

[healer]

I’ll bet tonight someone here is gonna be so drunk and depress.Lol ..... stay focus everyone;) kiss our money good bye.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by healer

I’ll bet tonight someone here is gonna be so drunk and depress.Lol ..... stay focus everyone;) kiss our money good bye.

Please elaborate to help me understand your point.

I’m long term, so I’m okay with it. It’s bound to happen and I o PO refer it sooner than later.

But still very curious as to your point...

[m j b]

Today, down 0.6% - that's nothing. It was up more than that yesterday.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by m j b

Today, down 0.6% - that's nothing. It was up more than that yesterday.

my thoughts exactly.

I would happily take this two day combo once a week for the next 52.

[derekhayden]

Originally Posted by superdog

I would happily take this two day combo once a week for the next 52.

I'm with you If I have to get drunk over a one day .6% loss after all the gains we have seen then I have bigger issues.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by healer

I’ll bet tonight someone here is gonna be so drunk and depress.Lol ..... stay focus everyone;) kiss our money good bye.

If you cannot handle a day like today you have no business in the market.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by SMD

If you cannot handle a day like today you have no business in the market.

Agree.

Also wanted to say I appreciated and agree with your above comment.

[healer]

Today is Friday and il be at the club and will enjoy the night away:) to many grumpy people in here. Time to go to the gym and sweat! Happy Friday to everyone.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by superdog

Agree.

Also wanted to say I appreciated and agree with your above comment.

Perhaps I was too influenced by Eugene Fama at school and the book Random Walk Down Wall Street, but to me stock picking is a mugs game. Unless you are Jim Simons or Ken Griffin chances are you will not consistently beat the market, and more often than not do a lot worse. So, for me, VTSAX all the way.

[m j b]

Stock picking is fine, but you have to do your research and due diligence.

Good earnings and fantastic potential: mjb's stock tip of the day: Crowdstrike. CRWD

You read it here first.

You are welcome.

[healer]

Mjb... just for the heck of it come Monday I’ll buy in for 5k just for fun.

[roaddog359]

Originally Posted by m j b

Stock picking is fine, but you have to do your research and due diligence.

Good earnings and fantastic potential: mjb's stock tip of the day: Crowdstrike. CRWD

You read it here first.

You are welcome.

And saw it first on Mad Money with Cramer! lol

[m j b]

Originally Posted by roaddog359

And saw it first on Mad Money with Cramer! lol

Actually... I tried to get in on the ipo, but I'm not a whale at my broker, so I got nothing. My network security guy said that crwd is an awesome company with great products. And their industry is going nowhere but up... even more so that we are heading away from conventional warfare (my words).

I didn't realize that the stock had dropped, and after watching the CEO on Cramer, yes, that motivated me to buy, and share my thoughts.