Why I paid up for the Chronometre Bleu

[lanteanflux]

Hello there. I’ve been wanting a CB for a while and I’ve been closely following threads on this forum whilst contemplating it. Ultimately I pulled the trigger and bought the CB last week at its “crazy” secondary market price. Here were my thoughts to reach that point (sorry, long!).  

1.       Paying over retail is OK if the watch is effectively discontinued

Like many I initially disliked the idea of paying over retail for watches still in production. For discontinued references however the idea is much easier to stomach– with no more supply, demand can drive the price wherever it wants.

I concluded that the CB is all but discontinued. Yes, a few lucky people will get a brand new CB each year at retail, but heck, people win lotteries around the world all the time. For the average person including myself, the CB is discontinued. This brings us to scarcity, and I think where the CB can be contrasted with a Daytona or a Nautilus. The latter have been made for decades, and I think we can safely assume they will be made forevermore. For me, paying over retail for these makes a lot less sense as they are simply not scarce. As I write, there are 6000 Daytonas on Chrono24 and 600 in the current production ceramic/steel. Contrast this with the CB of which there are a total of EIGHT on Chrono. And can we safely assume they’ll be made forevermore? Hardly.

The irony I think is that if Journe does actually discontinue the CB tomorrow, the price will surely jump but there will be no functional difference for 99% of people currently wanting one. It will just be a wake up call to an existing fact – that the CB is already discontinued.

2.       Paying over retail is even more OK when the retail price is completely mispriced

Before I became comfortable with the above idea, I did search for alternative Journes. After all, why pay overs for the one Journe that trades at a premium? Why not get a more complicated watch at a discount! I initially looked at yellow brass Reserve de Marches which traded at a similar price to the CB. One from Keystone in particular looked great, but while I was pondering, it got bought and then the crazy auctions went through (250k yellow dial prototype RDM and Resonance). A dour looking yellow RDM then went through at Christie’s for 47k USD, and I knew I’d missed the boat:

(Can’t seem to post links to above 2, you can Google yourself)

I then went to the CB’s cousin, the Chronometre Souverain – same movement, in platinum, the added feature of the power reserve, and trades at a very decent discount. Surely can’t be bad? But in the end I couldn’t get over the dial – the addition of the power reserve is actually a detraction for me as it takes out the 3 marker and hence the fluidity of the numerals as they go around the dial, unencumbered by anything including the small seconds. It also pushes the F.P. Journe logo higher and above the central circle border into an unnatural place. If you showed a layman the CB and CS and told them they are the same price and asked them to pick one, I would wager that the vast majority would choose the CB. Taking this to the next logical step, if the retail price were jacked up to match the CS tomorrow, no one would think that’s weird because, let’s be honest, we’re not paying for the precious metal. So in my opinion the CB retail is clearly mispriced relative to the CS, and even to the current production Octa Lunes (55k USD, what?!) and when you go from that starting point the secondary market value of the CB is not that bad at all.

Finally, I looked at relative value and what I could get away from Journe. In the end my question was this: I’m going to be ~35k-40k USD poorer, what do I want on my wrist in return? For similar money I could get a garish gold Daytona. Or the most vanilla Aquanaut. I probably could still get a grey dial RDM or second hand Octa Lune. I did closely ponder the Lange 1815 Chrono.

But ultimately the CB looked better than all those watches, even at the same price.

And it’s not like it’s all hype and we’re getting nothing in return. Away from the dial, that gold movement walks over anything that isn’t a Lange chrono, and even then I think it’s close.
 
3.       Stopping “in” to a trade

People are generally familiar with the idea of stopping out, but let’s talk about stopping “in”. Reading around it seems a lot of people love the CB and regret not buying the CB when it was cheap, but refuse to buy it now that it’s trading higher. That’s understandable and simply human psychology. For me though, if something is worth it, then it’s worth it. Sure, it’d be nice to buy it for even less (duh), but as things stand I don’t have that option, and it’s not looking like it’ll ever be an option either. As a plus, I’ve only been into watches for 15 months, so I never saw those days when the CB was in a shop window and can’t kick myself for not buying one. I appreciate I may very well be buying the all-time highs now, but overall I’m comfortable and happy with the level having looked at the state of the market. I don’t want to be the guy who waited for Apple shares to dip and simply watched them soar away. And given the amount of people looking to “buy on dips” for the CB, it sounds like such a dip is pretty unlikely, particularly when we factor in the scarcity issue and chance of discontinuation. As a final point, equities gained 25% last year. Is it really so crazy for this watch to do the same?

[Nacelle]

Nice thought out post, the CB is glorious. Congrats! I think that Oscar Wilde coined the phrase: "the best way to fight temptation is to yield". Enjoy your CB!

[Yaz]

Congrats !!

[BigAppleBill]

The waiting lists went out to eight years, then closed entirely. Very low yearly production that has even been decreased, with little to no chance of increasing. The logical conclusion is to pay the premium if you want it on your wrist. I paid over retail for mine too. But with absolutely no regrets. It’s my favorite watch. Congrats on your purchase! Enjoy it!

[JR16]

Congrats - no shame in paying what you think a watch is worth, and I don’t think these will be getting any less expensive - enjoy !


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[bigfatpauli]

Congrats. No need to try so hard and justify paying over retail. Just enjoy the watch...

[gilluminati204]

Congratulations! I think even at current secondary prices, the watch is still a bargain.

Enjoy the heck outta it.

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[sensui]

Agreed... Don't even think about it anymore. Just enjoy now that you've made the decision. Great watch.

[Cozmopak]

Fascinating how you and I (and probably many others) have gone through a similar evolution when considering this watch. I also considered every watch that you mention. The CB is a brilliant timepiece.

[Skyrider01]

Congrats! And a good move on your part. With an 8 year list that is essentially closed, and the probability that the watch may be discontinued, this is one of the few pieces I would consider paying the premium for.

[b0rderman]

Life is ridiculously short, and now you get to have this watch for the rest of it.

[eviperman]

Congrats!

The CB production numbers are not increasing as they are likely to be the same in 2020 as 2019... if there was still a list, it would only continue to grow, not shrink.

It's a brilliant watch, enjoy it!

[lig]

Congrats! Love that piece. Really disappointed I didn’t pull the trigger years ago when they were under $20k.

Enjoy it in good health.

[lanteanflux]

Thank you all!

[pepsiretail]

I'm happy that you got the watch you wanted.

All that is important is that you got what you wanted at a price you can afford, no matter what the market does.

Enjoy!

[Jay (Eire)]

When everyone around you is buying Lange’s at (close to) retail the CB at market price is a no brainer.

I agree with much of your reasoning, particularly in saying that the CB is really trading at close to fair value. It’s actual retail price was always (and intentionally) mispriced.

[aurusks]

I'm looking for one myself. Congrats on the acquisition. Ultimately, it's whatever decision you can live with - even better if you can justify the price you paid.

[WatchEater666]

One does not simply speak of owning an FPJ without pictures. Ahem...

[GB-man]

Happy that you’re happy

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by Jay (Eire)

When everyone around you is buying Lange’s at (close to) retail the CB at market price is a no brainer.

People are buying Lange's at close to retail?

Also, the CB isn't mis-priced. Remember, it got a significant price hike last year. It was meant to be FP's entry-level piece. Turns out it didn't go as he had planned.

That said, it's a fabulous piece. Congrats, OP, on your addition! May you enjoy it in the best of health. :)

[RTG]

Congratulations. You won’t regret buying what you wanted most.

[Jay (Eire)]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

People are buying Lange's at close to retail?

Also, the CB isn't mis-priced. Remember, it got a significant price hike last year. It was meant to be FP's entry-level piece. Turns out it didn't go as he had planned.

That said, it's a fabulous piece. Congrats, OP, on your addition! May you enjoy it in the best of health. :)

It was most definitely (intentionally) mispriced and remains so. That was the whole point to the CB and it’s “entry level” position. The “entry level” referred to the price, nothing else.

[Jay (Eire)]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

People are buying Lange's at close to retail?

I think close enough to still take a significant bath, and most definitely close enough to make a significant drop in CB market prices a similar outcome to that experienced by a vast majority of luxury watch buyers upon resale.

I was being a smart ass referencing Lange, and did so only because we talk a lot about Lange here. But we can substitute a lot of brands for Lange.

[jenniferjanef]

Originally Posted by Jay (Eire)

I think close enough to still take a significant bath, and most definitely close enough to make a significant drop in CB market prices a similar outcome to that experienced by a vast majority of luxury watch buyers upon resale.

I was being a smart ass referencing Lange, and did so only because we talk a lot about Lange here. But we can substitute a lot of brands for Lange.

I almost bought a A. Lange & Söhne Zeitwerk Striking Time couple of months early in their boutique. Paying the full pop. No discount. I didn’t pull the trigger because I forgot to bring my wallet!! They have 3 pieces available. I didn’t went back to close the deal because I was in a mad rush for a last minute change of business meeting schedule.

I did made a few phone calls to my dealer friends and straight up offered the same watch at 15% off easily and willing to drop as much as 18% if I am paying cash (always).

Lucky escape

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Happy that you’re happy

What he said

[2Redbulls]

I regret selling mine.

[Justindo]

Congratulations. I don't think you'll lose money on this and you clearly love the watch. It's always a good idea to buy what you like, even if it's pricey.

[lanteanflux]

Originally Posted by Justindo

Congratulations. I don't think you'll lose money on this and you clearly love the watch. It's always a good idea to buy what you like, even if it's pricey.

Thanks - in hindsight what you and many others have said is so true. I felt like the CS was 70% the same watch, 50% of the cost but would bring only 20% of the happiness. Buying the CB in the end felt like a huge weight off my shoulders!

[rockdrock]

Congrats! Life too short. Pics?


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[MrBlahBlah]

I was close to pulling the trigger on a CB from a dealer at $35k recently but just couldn't stomach it. I absolutely love it, and still do, but I had a hard time justifying it at that price, personally. But it still haunts me.

For now, I have scratched the blue dial itch with my VC Overseas Gen 3 Blue dial, which is actually made by FPJ from what I hear, just with a different finish on the base metal. It's a completely different watch obviously and would still love to add a CB to the collection.

I'll continue to chase it - my hope is to find a human to work with where we can strike a more reasonable but still market-based priced