Should Rolex be worried, long term?

[Speedbird-1]

Just read that Apple sold more watches than the whole of the Swiss watch industry.
Some, Swiss manufacturers, survived the last appearance of a new timekeeping technology, but, electronic technology is accelerating and expanding faster
than ever.
Most of us here will say we like our Rolexes the way they are.
Rolex tried going down the, new technology route, some years ago, not too successful was it.

Will Geneva be considering some kind of 'Smart' device linked with a mechanical analog watch face, or will they be putting their heads in the sand, resting on their hard earned laurels, and hoping for the best?

[joli160]

I think they hope for the best, not so many youngsters using a mechanical watch nowadays.

[Rashid.bk]

Nah, Rolex nor the mechanical watch industry compete with Apple or smartwatches.
No one buys a Rolex because they need a watch to track time, or should I say an analog mechanical watch.
People like us and the buyer at large of mechanical watches spends thousands of dollars on a basic time and date function for an assortment of reasons, none of which are synonymous with a smartwatch except for the time function.

During the quartz crisis, the issue was solely based on the necessity of time keeping. An item that told time accurately and very cheaply. It was a new idea and affordable and a watch, a device that tracked time was literally an actual "tool" in the real sense. Today watches at large aren't the "tools" they were in the 50s-60s, today we have phones, computers, clocks...all sorts of devices that tell time. If the issue is to know what time it is, you don't need a watch for that, an Apple watch and moreso a five figure mechanical watch.

People are falling more and more in love with the simplicity, beauty and personal value that mechanical watches have. They have longevity and are personal life investments in the sense of emotion and attachment(monetary for some), a smartwatch is disposable, life expectancy of three years tops and even after one year, it's obsolete.

[Rashid.bk]

Originally Posted by joli160

I think they hope for the best, not so many youngsters using a mechanical watch nowadays.

This is true, but even that super hip, most famous YouTuber, a young guy with a bajillion followers(can't remember his name at the moment) celebrated his fafillion subscriber achievement by buying none other than buying PLATINUM DAYDATE to mark the occasion.

That video also had a bajillion views and likes.....all from the pop culture youngsters of today.
Also, the music industry at large which is the number one influencer at large, every single artist from JM to Migos to Pharrell is wearing none other than a mechanical watch....Rolex, AP and Patek.
Then there's the sports industry, then there's the movie industry, all heavily mechanical watch users, and this is about 90% I would say un-sponsored usage.

On instagram, the mechanical watch has by a large margin more followers than apple or g-shock followers.

Now if Rolex or Patek started making smartwatches.....Houston we have a problem!


Edit: The YouTuber is Logan Paul, he has a couple of these buying Rolex videos for himself or as very special "sincere" gifts.

[glamorama]

I think Rolex, Patek, AP, Lange, VC and some high end independents will do well. Stuff that that has some high engineering and hand finishing that is inherently not not easily copied. Things that there has been some serious effort in making. By effort I mean consistent brand building, engineering or watch making mastery.

The mid-tier segment is going to be the worst hit since at a point it is cooler to have an Apple Watch than a Tag Heuer or IWC mechanical. The mid-tier just seem to generic and effortless, like Casual dining.

The Rolex "tool watch" category utility is long gone, they can still do the job as any new Range Rover can, but they are mostly used for posing in the city. Real tool watches are now G-Shocks and the like.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Rashid.bk

Nah, Rolex nor the mechanical watch industry compete with Apple or smartwatches.
No one buys a Rolex because they need a watch to track time, or should I say an analog mechanical watch.
People like us and the buyer at large of mechanical watches spends thousands of dollars on a basic time and date function for an assortment of reasons, none of which are synonymous with a smartwatch except for the time function.

During the quartz crisis, the issue was solely based on the necessity of time keeping. An item that told time accurately and very cheaply. It was a new idea and affordable and a watch, a device that tracked time was literally an actual "tool" in the real sense. Today watches at large aren't the "tools" they were in the 50s-60s, today we have phones, computers, clocks...all sorts of devices that tell time. If the issue is to know what time it is, you don't need a watch for that, an Apple watch and moreso a five figure mechanical watch.

People are falling more and more in love with the simplicity, beauty and personal value that mechanical watches have. They have longevity and are personal life investments in the sense of emotion and attachment(monetary for some), a smartwatch is disposable, life expectancy of three years tops and even after one year, it's obsolete.

Extremely well put. I agree 100%. I’ll even add to it. Apple watches and other smart watches have replaced the mechanical watch as today’s tool watch. Mechanical watchers ceased being tool watches in the 80s (or before) and we really went some time without having actual tool watches until the smart watch came. Now these smart watches are the ultimate tool watch because they do everything. They are replacing cell phones as personal computers on the wrist. However just like you said they are in fact disposable and have a maximum lifespan of about three years and much shorter and that for those that must have the latest and greatest. Mechanical watches will never be outdated. I’m trying to find one right now from the early 1940s. Even that old it will still accomplish the exact same thing mechanical watchs do today. Mechanical watches are art. They just are not the same thing as a smart watch and therefore have a much different consumer base. I don’t think most people that wear an Apple Watch would ever have owned a mechanical watch to begin with so it seems to me the tech world has created new customers and are not taking existing ones.

[travisb]

I agree with Rashid.
Short answer - No, Rolex is not and shouldn't be worried.

[HL65]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Extremely well put. I agree 100%. I’ll even add to it. Apple watches and other smart watches have replaced the mechanical watch as today’s tool watch. Mechanical watchers ceased being tool watches in the 80s (or before) and we really went some time without having actual tool watches until the smart watch came. Now these smart watches are the ultimate tool watch because they do everything. They are replacing cell phones as personal computers on the wrist. However just like you said they are in fact disposable and have a maximum lifespan of about three years and much shorter and that for those that must have the latest and greatest. Mechanical watches will never be outdated. I’m trying to find one right now from the early 1940s. Even that old it will still accomplish the exact same thing mechanical watchs do today. Mechanical watches are art. They just are not the same thing as a smart watch and therefore have a much different consumer base. I don’t think most people that wear an Apple Watch would ever have owned a mechanical watch to begin with so it seems to me the tech world has created new customers and are not taking existing ones.

I don’t know Brett, most of my friends who collect watches including myself all own Apple watches as well. I don’t think it’s an either or case as one looking for a Rolex or Patek isn’t going to shop that against an Apple or smart watch nor vice versa.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by HL65

I don’t know Brett, most of my friends who collect watches including myself all own Apple watches as well. I don’t think it’s an either or case as one looking for a Rolex or Patek isn’t going to shop that against an Apple or smart watch nor vice versa.

Absolutely Ken I agree. I own an Apple Watch also. I use it to monitor my sleep and my heart at night. But I think we are rare. My daughter wears an Apple Watch and I gave her an omega from the 1940s that my grandmother owned. She never wears it and doesn’t have any passion for it. Most of the young people I know in their 20s and 30s could not care less about mechanical watches and most of them all wear smart watches. I realize there are crossovers that do both like you and I but I bet you have a tech side to you like I do and own on the coolest computers and phones anyway.

[martinjames192]

I think they have reasons to be because on a long term basis persons might rather go for smart watches mostly because of the extra features it has...

[HL65]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Absolutely Ken I agree. I own an Apple Watch also. I use it to monitor my sleep and my heart at night. But I think we are rare. My daughter wears an Apple Watch and I gave her an omega from the 1940s that my grandmother owned. She never wears it and doesn’t have any passion for it. Most of the young people I know in their 20s and 30s could not care less about mechanical watches and most of them all wear smart watches. I realize there are crossovers that do both like you and I but I bet you have a tech side to you like I do and own on the coolest computers and phones anyway.

I am an Apple junkie for sure Brett and own pretty much everything they make from phones, watches, Macs, iPads, airpods to Apple TV etc.

[77T]

Worry isn’t the right word IMHO. Taking defensive action is what I’d say.

Wearables are a universal threat. If you don’t agree just think about how many pocket watches are being made today.

So we are perhaps already seeing the result of that action today - availability. A normal business would expand production to capture all the demand they could. Perhaps Rolex has chosen to play defensively for now.



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[Patton250]

Originally Posted by HL65

I am an Apple junkie for sure Brett and own pretty much everything they make from phones, watches, Macs, iPads, airpods to Apple TV etc.

Me too man. It’s gotten out of control a little bit.

[77T]

Originally Posted by HL65

I am an Apple junkie for sure Brett and own pretty much everything they make from phones, watches, Macs, iPads, airpods to Apple TV etc.

You’re addicted when you have 2 of each + always upgrade each time a new model arrives.

Well funded individuals will continue to buy what they appreciate whether it’s Apple, Rolex, Ferrari, Tumi, etc...


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[Rashid.bk]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Extremely well put. I agree 100%. I’ll even add to it. Apple watches and other smart watches have replaced the mechanical watch as today’s tool watch. Mechanical watchers ceased being tool watches in the 80s (or before) and we really went some time without having actual tool watches until the smart watch came. Now these smart watches are the ultimate tool watch because they do everything. They are replacing cell phones as personal computers on the wrist. However just like you said they are in fact disposable and have a maximum lifespan of about three years and much shorter and that for those that must have the latest and greatest. Mechanical watches will never be outdated. I’m trying to find one right now from the early 1940s. Even that old it will still accomplish the exact same thing mechanical watchs do today. Mechanical watches are art. They just are not the same thing as a smart watch and therefore have a much different consumer base. I don’t think most people that wear an Apple Watch would ever have owned a mechanical watch to begin with so it seems to me the tech world has created new customers and are not taking existing ones.

You know those are some good points. In today's society a smart watch really is the modern expression of tool watch. Today is a connected world and the smartwatch keeps you connected. For now at least a smartwatch and an Apple watch are an add on purchase to a smartphone, they don't operate independently so Apple and smartwatch companies by and large are just future proofing their customer base because in the near future the phone will go away and the watch will remain.

The smartwatch hasn't really created new customers as much as piggybacked on existing customers of the phone....30 million watches went to 30 million iphone users.

JCB made the same point as you and I agree, mechanical watches even and 114060 or Panerai base are works of art. But the artistry isn't just on the dial and the bracelet, it's the movement as well. I don't know how many times I look at my watch just because it's cool and pleasing to look at, that doesn't happen with my new iPhone 11 Pro Max.

Originally Posted by HL65

I don’t know Brett, most of my friends who collect watches including myself all own Apple watches as well. I don’t think it’s an either or case as one looking for a Rolex or Patek isn’t going to shop that against an Apple or smart watch nor vice versa.

I agree, although I don't have an apple watch I do have another and it's a Fenix5s, bastard cost me $1000 last year, today you can get it for $600-700, next year $500. It doesn't replace my mechanical watches in any form except fitness metrics or manual labor. I use the heart rate function for my work outs religiously and it's an amazing fitness tool. That's where it stops for me, if I'm ever going to select a watch for normal use, the Fenix will never win over my Rolex, shoot I wear my Rolex around the house just because I like to look at it.

On my Fenix I turn off all smart notifications, emails and texts...all I need from it are fitness metric services. If Apple gets it's fitness services more inline with real detailed and programamble metrics, I may jump ship when my Fenix becomes obsolete because that is what these devices do, they become rather useless and slow. Over the past ten years I've had three fitness/smartwatch type devices, two Polar V800 and my F5s....same Rolex watches in that time and love them more.

The devices can coexist based on needs....but if zombie apocalypse happens I'm grabbing an analog device and running, I won't need text messages and emails at that point, but it will be cool to use my bezel to time how long I've been running from this zombie. First rule, Cardio.

[SDR581]

Originally Posted by martinjames192

I think they have reasons to be because on a long term basis persons might rather go for smart watches mostly because of the extra features it has...

I don't think the mechanical watch industry should be too worried....Most the of good companies will survive.

The tech companies all have "planned obsolescence" They will only support their products for X number of years because it becomes too expensive to do it long term.

If someone were to add up the cost of smart watches and "personal tech" over say a decade or more you are pretty darn close or exceeding the cost of a nice Rolex or Omega.

Just sayin'.

[padi56]

The Chinese Seagull brand sold more mechanical and quartz movements than the Swiss and the apple watch combined should any be worried no. Although Seagull does produce some fine movements just like many others today, as for Apple watches see them more of a novelty than a watch.

[tanask211]

An Apple watch is more like a device. A luxury watch is more of a accessory...

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[golden_time]

Originally Posted by Lt Virgil Hilts

Just read that Apple sold more watches than the whole of the Swiss watch industry.

Slightly old news, but no - Rolex, and the Swiss watch industry should not be worried.
Ultimately, the price point for Apple watches vs. Rolex are not comparable.
Also, the majority of people have TWO wrists - double wristing is a thing, and we all want the best of both worlds.
I have many clients that wear a smart watch/ fitbit/ garmin on one wrist and a mechanical watch on the other.

[beshannon]

I do not think Rolex is worried about being able to sell high end luxury jewelry to people with disposable income

[newu5er]

The big difference for me is that because the wearables are technology-based, a single device will never have staying power the way a mechanical watch does.

Though mechanical watches do receive upgrades as model change, it's nothing like an Apple watch where you buy it and it's old in 9-12 months. That makes smartwatches disposable. Mechanical watches will probably never be considered disposable.

Another consideration although fleeting, is the fact that all smartwatches are tethered to an extent. They require charging/power, wifi, bluetooth etc. We are moving towards a society where that always available connectivity is here, but some don't want an additional connection to their email, phone etc. I feel we get enough of that with phones and laptops today. Eventually we all may be forced to adhere to the always connected mentality - we are pretty close now.

[BroncoOne]

I disagree. As others have said smart watches and mechanical watches are wildly different products that people buy for very different reasons. If Apple was going to knock off Rolex it would have already happened. Instead, Rolex just raised MSRP on its watches and good luck getting one at that price.

If you need more proof, look at the growing rate of fake Rolexes being made and the increasing investment made by the fraud factories to increase the quality of the fakes. Follow the money. The market for mechanical watches is increasing as the economy roars forward.

Apple also relies on you wanting a newer model, just like all tech products make themselves obsolete. Rolex watches often go up in value when they are discontinued. Tech products do not. Very different consumer segments.

If of course you continue to believe your theory, sell me your stainless still Daytonas quick before they drop in price like a rock. Hurry! My offer prices are dropping the longer that you wait! LOL

[Brny11]

Originally Posted by Patton250

Mechanical watches are art.

This thread can start and end with this one comment above.

I own an Apple watch and wear it for function (unfortunately it does gets 70% wrist time). My mechanical watches I wear because I love them. Like art, they inspire emotions that wearable tech will never be able to do.

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[TimeToWatch]

No, why should they be worried? Demand for Rolex has never been higher. Sure Apple sold more volume, but that’s not hard when your product costs under $500 versus over $5k. All of those Apple watches sold this year will be in the garbage within 5 years. Every rolex sold last year will be around for generations.

The smart watch era has many parallels to the quartz crisis. The end result of the quartz crisis was an upwards move in pricing and the perceived luxury of Swiss watches. We’re seeing the same now.

[Brew]

The digital "noise" from these smart watches is overwhelming to me. I don't need or want to be so immersed. Rolex has nothing to worry about from me.

[6538]

How long do wearables last? Four, maybe 5 years? And what is the trade in value vs a Swiss timepeice? Compared to Rolex or any other Swiss watch, the brands are in great shape. I am die hard Samsung, but wearable tech is a big turn off for me. Swiss mechanical or nothing. Preferably the former, though.

[sdiver68]

Watches are jewelry, in many cases the only acceptable jewelry for men.

If anything, I see smart watches fading as other wearables take their place.

[Speedbird-1]

Posted on TRF today:
"Long story short I have an 114060 that I am contemplating letting go because I feel a new movement update is coming.

Yeah, that 'AppleTech' stuff is SO disposable, isn't it.
(Tongue, firmly in cheek........mostly).

[pickettt]

Originally Posted by 77t

worry isn’t the right word imho. Taking defensive action is what i’d say.

Wearables are a universal threat. If you don’t agree just think about how many pocket watches are being made today.

So we are perhaps already seeing the result of that action today - availability. A normal business would expand production to capture all the demand they could. Perhaps rolex has chosen to play defensively for now.



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+1

[Jona]

I have a Galaxy Smartwatch. I wore it twice.