Should Rolex be worried, long term?

[Morrison0]

My take is that we are one of the last generations who will value and enjoy mechanical masterpieces like Rolex and others. All the young people I meet have 0 passion for these pieces. For people who are buying watches from an investment perspective, sorry, they will lose money 20yrs from now. We should enjoy this hobby and be proud of being the few who get the opportunity to own such pieces. For sure Rolex and others will and should worry, but in the grand scheme of things they only produce maybe a couple of million pieces a year...the demand should sustain for some time to come.

[astewartconst]

I recently bought the Apple Watch 5 and am really happy with it. I got it for two main reasons
1. To track workouts and heart rate
2. To be able to leave my phone behind and break some of the addiction that having a phone brings. I shut all notifications off on the watch and since it isn’t really set up for internet browsing I am happy with the experience. I even have it set so the screen stays dark unless I touch it because I didn’t want to develop a habit of checking time on the Apple Watch

I am currently wearing a mechanical on one arm and Apple Watch on the other arm. I am certainly asking myself how long this will be able to last. From a practicality and usage standpoint the Apple Watch is obviously way better.

I think this is going to have a large impact on the Swiss. The practicality and connectivity is going to get better and better. At some point a wearable might be the norm and are people going to wear tech on one wrist and mechanical on the other? Probably not


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[Muxi]

When smartwatches begin to serve as indispensable medical devices, that might be a cause for concern.

[Tolex]

Originally Posted by Morrison0

My take is that we are one of the last generations who will value and enjoy mechanical masterpieces like Rolex and others. All the young people I meet have 0 passion for these pieces. For people who are buying watches from an investment perspective, sorry, they will lose money 20yrs from now. We should enjoy this hobby and be proud of being the few who get the opportunity to own such pieces. For sure Rolex and others will and should worry, but in the grand scheme of things they only produce maybe a couple of million pieces a year...the demand should sustain for some time to come.

This is exactly my experience - it's not just a few young people I've met, it's every single one I know, from the colleagues in my workplace, to my friends kids, my younger family members - every single one either does not wear a watch, or uses an apple watch. I don't think the luxury watch industry is going to survive this one in the generations to come.
For people who say they can wear one on each wrist - how many actually do that?

[samson66]

Two different products, no one goes shopping for a Rolex and then goes "hey I think I'm going to pick up a FitBit instead!" They don't really complete against each other. The Swiss market that is really feeling the effect is the low end stuff. This is why Rolex has gone so upscale. Luxury market

One is wearable technology that also tells the time
The other is luxury jewelry that also tells the time

[Tolex]

Originally Posted by Muxi

When smartwatches begin to serve as indispensable medical devices, that might be a cause for concern.

With the way technology is leapfrogging - I think this is an evitability.

[Rori]

The effect will be rather positive than negative. The more we live into the smart-Everything era the more our enchantment for everything mechanical will be.
I know 10, 12 years old kids that ask for nothing else than a mechanical or quartz watch as a birthday or Christmas present!

[derekhayden]

IMO any technological advancement in a field is always a concern for their competitors.

That being said very few Rolex, AP, PP are sold for the reason of time telling or even horological appreciation. They are sold to show ones self and others that they can afford such luxury. The only thing the luxury market really fears is the next big luxury fad. In the past 5 years we have seen a great increase in the "flex" generation which bodes well for Rolex and the luxury market in general.

[Mr. Miami]

Originally Posted by joli160

I think they hope for the best, not so many youngsters using a mechanical watch nowadays.

I am in young 20s and have appreciation for mechanical watches. In the midst of saving up for my 1st Rolex.

[Tolex]

Originally Posted by Mr. Miami

I am in young 20s and have appreciation for mechanical watches. In the midst of saving up for my 1st Rolex.

You are the minority, the statistics undeniably show younger people either do not wear watches - relying on mobile phones to tell the time, or use smart watches.

[astewartconst]

Originally Posted by samson66

Two different products, no one goes shopping for a Rolex and then goes "hey I think I'm going to pick up a FitBit instead!" They don't really complete against each other. The Swiss market that is really feeling the effect is the low end stuff. This is why Rolex has gone so upscale. Luxury market

One is wearable technology that also tells the time
The other is luxury jewelry that also tells the time

They don’t compete on the basis that you describe but most people are going to pick connectivity first (it is almost a necessity) So the question I think is going to be... will people be willing to wear a smart watch on one arm and a mechanical on the other arm


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[Tolex]

Originally Posted by astewartconst

They don’t compete on the basis that you describe but most people are going to pick connectivity first (it is almost a necessity) So the question I think is going to be... will people be willing to wear a smart watch on one arm and a mechanical on the other arm


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Brings back a memory of the time I actually saw an older gentleman wearing two rolexes, one on each wrist. First time I've ever seen anyone doing that.

[CactusSpine]

Most of the folk I work with are in their 20s and a few in the 30s. It is surprising how many opt to wear a quartz watch over a smart watch. It’s typically a Citizen or something similar, however they show interest in my speed master I wear and like to tell me about the nicer watches they want or intend to purchase in the future.

[TempoKing]

Rolex will have a problem when their dedicated clientele will have enough
and stop buying their unethically expensive steel products they make...And...
with the blackmarket prices, the bad customer service, the lack of supply etc.
...but hey...all the protective plastics are removed..so they are doing great
in this department.

[Easy E]

They survived the quartz crisis.

[Geckobros]

I believe any good company should be worried whenever there is a potential market disruptor. What would surprise me is if Rolex was resting on its success and not implementing long term strategy to stay healthy as a company.

Over the last 7 years I have noticed many people wearing smart watches. Every meeting I have attended I have seen exactly 2 older gents wearing something besides a smart watch. One had a quartz and another had a mechanical. I believe wearable technology is here to stay. And on a side note, there is a reason nobody notices your watch, they don't care.

I don't believe we will see mechanicals disappear in our lifetimes but I don't see how they can compete with today's ever evolving connected society.

[scrappy]

I believe the long term trend for mechanical watches is a continued bias towards being objects of jewelry/fashion/status versus actual timekeeping. Keep this in mind when you wonder why Rolex is slowly moving itself further away from steel tool watches. Fewer watches, higher prices and more precious metals is the future Rolex in my opinion.

In conclusion, they'll be fine.

[garyk]

Had lunch with a lawyer friend and his son yesterday. The Lawyer wears a yg Day Date and bought his son a very nice new Timex Q watch. Very cool Timex and I'm sure he will go on to having more analog watches over time.

[Mr. Miami]

Originally Posted by Tolex

You are the minority, the statistics undeniably show younger people either do not wear watches - relying on mobile phones to tell the time, or use smart watches.

I understand that. My point was that some young people like mechanical watches still.

[seasubmariner]

Originally Posted by Morrison0

All the young people I meet have 0 passion for these pieces.

And I dont really understand why !!!!!


Smartwatches dials are not real everything virtual and look stupid. In around 1994 (when I was 11), I already become fed up of digital watches and wanted to have a REAL watch with a real dial, markers and hands....When I was 15 (around 1998), I had my first mechanical watch with a glass caseback and loved it.

Im sure there will still be some new generation loving and appreciating mechanical watches because those watches are real and have the character.

[Tolex]

Originally Posted by Mr. Miami

I understand that. My point was that some young people like mechanical watches still.

I hope my sons go the same way, i find it rather disturbing people need to be plugged in every second of the day. People are already zombie like as it is, eyes glued to their smartphones all times of the day.

[astewartconst]

Originally Posted by Tolex

Brings back a memory of the time I actually saw an older gentleman wearing two rolexes, one on each wrist. First time I've ever seen anyone doing that.

I am currently wearing an Apple Watch and a Blancpain 38mm flyback one in each wrist. This thread is intriguing and prompts me to think deeper. I am just a week and a half into owning the Apple Watch and there is no going back. It is very nice for what I wanted out of it.


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[Speedsleev]

Apple watches are like Garmin watches, fitness tool sand awful looking distractions. I have one, I wear it for running so I don't have to take my phone. No soul and annoying junk.
With that said, most people wearing and buying don't have any interest in nice watches to begin with and don't get from the start.
Not worried, there will be some cross over but not enough until they are implanting them in our bodies any way...

[seasubmariner]

Originally Posted by Tolex

This is exactly my experience - it's not just a few young people I've met, it's every single one I know, from the colleagues in my workplace, to my friends kids, my younger family members - every single one either does not wear a watch, or uses an apple watch. I don't think the luxury watch industry is going to survive this one in the generations to come.
For people who say they can wear one on each wrist - how many actually do that?

This is very very sad news but although crazy new generation are not interested in mechanical watches, the prices are going up.

[samson66]

Originally Posted by Mr. Miami

I am in young 20s and have appreciation for mechanical watches. In the midst of saving up for my 1st Rolex.

Exactly - no one ever aspires to "one day" reward themselves with an Apple watch. It is a tool. Rolex will always been seen as something to strive for and hopefully reach the point in your life where you can reward yourself and purchase. That's what makes Rolex so unique. You don't celebrate a wedding or a child birth or retirement by purchasing a smart watch. Maybe I'm wrong but that's how I see it. I don't see one replacing the other. The are different items completely in my view.

[Onikage]

Demand looks to be doing alright so far. Someone somewhere doesn't want to be charging evermore various crap. I don't care what my heart is doing or how many steps I've taken or even want to use a wristwatch for phoney type stuff for that matter. They also look really uncool. Pensioner appliance. Not that there is anything wrong with older folk but.. Yeah.

[AK797]

The banning of social media will be the thing to make luxury status producers quiver, so nothing to worry about.

[Blansky]

I think it will become more and more commonplace to have a wrist computer on one wrist and a nice watch on the other.

I can't see hybrid watches (smartwatches) sticking for people that own higher end horology because the lifespan of a computer watch is too limited (about 3 years). For lower end markets it may workout but I think people will always be attracted to fine horology, AND even moreso when the wrist computers are everywhere.

People want fine things and status and horology provides that.

Wrist computers provide pedestrian convenience that need to be ungraded too often to provide any sort of perceived sophistication.

In perhaps 10 years almost everyone in first world markets will own a wrist computer.

[jvb.nc]

counterpoint:

when i was twenty, i thought rolex was a dinosaur, too expensive, too conservative; too small, and reserved for retired floridiots.

at forty, i own six rolex watches and have four more incoming.

i think as some folks mature and gain an appreciation for luxury items - especially those that have to work into earning the funds for them - we will always see rolex carry some weight.


i do think long-term the market cannot help but change.


although there are just more people. so sure, more folks will go with smart watches and such, but even a smaller percentage of a larger number is not insignificant.

anyone got a crystal ball?

[Andrew NYC]

One thing to consider is that despite the explosive growth of wearables, IoT, smartwatches, etc. there does not seem to be a decreased demand for Rolex watches and this seems to be evidenced by the lack of inventory, high demand and that Rolex reportedly sells every watch they make annually and have done so for decades. The threat does not seem to be there at least not yet.

The popularity of smartwatches, I think, appeals most to those who haven't worn a watch in the past or those mechanical, non-smartwatch wearers who want to adopt new technology. I know from my own experience that while I was one of the first to get the first generation AppleWatch, which I did wear and still do on occasion, it by no means diminished my interest and purchasing of mechanical watches, especially Rolex. Personally, I think there is room for both categories based on some of the comments in this thread.