Should Rolex be worried, long term?

[samson66]

Originally Posted by astewartconst

They don’t compete on the basis that you describe but most people are going to pick connectivity first (it is almost a necessity) So the question I think is going to be... will people be willing to wear a smart watch on one arm and a mechanical on the other arm

If we get to a point where wearing technology on the wrist becomes an actual necessity (and I don't think we are anywhere near that yet) for people I do think it would be big problems for the entire mechanical watch industry. But keep in mind not all wearable technology is or will be required to be worn on the wrist. I had a FitBit Zip which I wore on my belt. My phone counts my steps without the need for an accessory. I think (hope) they come up with more alternatives than strapping that ugly thing on your wrist. I can't be the only one out there that doesn't want to wear that thing.

However I still see Rolex and other upscale brands as simply luxury jewelry items that tell the time. Rolex is very smart in going high dollar luxury. This is a very smart company and I would bet you they are strategically positioning themselves due to the rise of the smart watch. The brands that will be decimated by the apple watch and others will be the <$1,500 mechanical watches. I just don't see them surviving. Rolex is going for the high income older customer that wants a beautiful timepiece and the perceived status that comes with it on their wrist. Men only wear one piece of jewelry and I just think there will always be a market for something more than a plug in hunk of plastic. The womens luxury watch market is less of a known I think...

[REFZ]

Apple doesn't sell watches but they sell wristsize computers which can show the time.

[Yess]

The need for a watch to tell time is virtually obsolete for the modern city dweller.

People have been adorning themselves with jewelry for millennia - I look at my Rolex/watches in this way; a piece of jewelry...

[Arcticsub]

Different markets in my opinion. Battery life sucks on these things and 5 years after purchase they become eol, no more updates.

[Andrew NYC]

Originally Posted by Yess

The need for a watch to tell time is virtually obsolete for the modern city dweller.

People have been adorning themselves with jewelry for millennia - I look at my Rolex/watches in this way; a piece of jewelry...

While I appreciate the availability of alternative time-telling options I have a hard time thinking that mechanical/traditional watches are obsolete. I wouldn't take my AppleWatch diving, where I have no concerns with when wearing my Sub or SD (actually I'd feel comfortable wearing any of my Rolex watches, DD included when I dive, swim in the ocean, etc.). Also, I find that often I am unable to read my AppleWatch in bright sunlight or in need of a mechanical watch when the battery dies while wearing it and no charging option handy. Another recent instance where a mechanical watch was necessary was when recently serving federal jury duty. No electronic devices were allowed in the juror waiting room or courtroom. They required anything electronic (phones, iPads, smartwatches and even headphones) to be checked into a locker for the entire day. My Rolex that day was certainly the superior option.

[Fleetlord]

There are certainly people who couldn't care less about watches.

I was listening to the "Lithium" channel on Sirius the other day.

The channel plays "grunge" rock and such from the 90's

The DJ usually has some snarky quips he comes up with between songs...

This one was about watches.... He's like: "Who wears waaattchesss"?...with a snarky emphasis on watches. People have their phone to tell time...so even the big clocks around town you see are like gone....and he himself hasn't worn a watch in like a decade...blah blah blah...all very snarky and dismissive of "waaattcchhess".

So the mindset is certainly out there....watches are obsolete and something to essentially make fun out of for being an "old timey" relic...like who uses a Walkman? Who uses a fax machine? blah blah blah

BUT

That mindset DOESN'T APPLY to ROLEX

I have a colleague who i had NEVER seen wear a watch. Never saw a use for one. Had his phone to tell the time.

He recently sold one of his business units.

What was the first thing he purchased?

You guessed it. A YG DD 40mm with a diamond dial and bezel...

Why? Not to tell time, but to make a statement.

Platinum is next on the list when he meets another milestone...

So the point of all this is that Rolex isn't about telling time. It's about prestige, status, appreciation of quality and a projection of all these things. The smart watches don't do that...and when Apple tried with the gold version, it was flop.

Now, the other brands with weak marketing will be / are in BIG trouble. The mid tier brands will lose out to higher end smart watches. It's already happening. They don't project the same as ROLEX does, so no reason to bother with them.

[iatacs19]

It's a different industry altogether. Smartwatches are an Information Technology product.

[Chewbacca]

Rolex shouldn’t be worried about Apple. They should be worried about a contracting market for luxe items.

Rolex is now an economic indicator like lingerie and handbags.

[Bizcut1]

Rolex has a unique structure as a company. In fact, you could argue that it is not a company at all.

[Raku]

Why would Rolex be worried? They are not even in the same business as Apple.
Rolex sells mechanical timepieces, while Apple sells electronic devices.

They don't even have the same philosophy, one company is proven to make products that last, while the other is proven to intentionally do the opposite.

[Calatrava r]

I believed the wearable device market would hurt the traditional watch industry but as people have said, it is more about jewelry at this point so the markets are actually quite different. Rolex, AP, and some other high makers should thrive. The bulk of the watch industry has seen a decline and that will continue.

[aleeboy]

Yes, Rolex most definitely should. It is why they have adopted the scarcity + hype strategies since 2015/6.

In finance, only new joiners/ juniors may be wearing a Rolex. The more experienced people are wearing Apple Watches, Gamins or other smart watches.

[zengineer]

Are there a lot of people really cross shopping and on the fence between the two? Err, no.

But sure if over time people start wearing more wrist phones they may lose interest in owning 15 Rolexes they never wear. I think Rolex, who has avoided overproduction and unsustainable sales growth, is not worried.

[Toproll85]

The market for Swiss watches valued at over 3000 dollars is doing better and better in view of recent figures.
However, volumes below this value have dropped.
Surprisingly, we sell less but better! Luxury mechanical Swiss watches are doing wonderfully.
I think this trend will continue, and Apple does not offer the same product at all as Rolex. Obsolescence against eternity. Battery against dream mechanism. Plastic gadget versus luxury and materials accordingly. Robotic technology against a touch of soul and human work.

This in turn could be dangerous for first-price quartz watches, and entry-level mechanics ... but from there to say that the drop in volumes is due to Apple, we do not know it concretely.

[vicsdca]

Apple watches are for the masses. Rolex watches are for the classes.

Seems to me that's the direction things are taking right now.

[vicsdca]

Originally Posted by Toproll85

This in turn could be dangerous for first-price quartz watches, and entry-level mechanics ... but from there to say that the drop in volumes is due to Apple, we do not know it concretely.

Agreed. It's the quartz industry that should be worried.

[jankymutt]

Yes, mechanical watch companies should be worried, but looking at prices and inventory control across multiple companies it's likely they already realized this long ago. Mechanical watches all already unnecessary as time-keepers or "tools". They are purely jewelry at this point.

I love mechanical watches but as a triathlete and scuba diver I use Garmin and Citizen dive computers for these activities. These devices provide me with so much data (real time and after the fact) that I would never take my Seamaster on a dive or my Speedmaster on a run (I don't own a Rolex yet).

Sure, there will always be people like us that enjoy mechanical watches, but we all admit that we enjoy the artistry/engineering/design/etc. of them and realize they are unnecessary luxury items.

[CashGap]

Originally Posted by Raku

They don't even have the same philosophy, one company is proven to make products that last, while the other is proven to intentionally do the opposite.

As I look at my many ten year old fully functional Apple products at home, that still do everything they did the day they were purchased (though I have upgraded, and keep them out of sentiment)...

You could turn your phrase.

One company is proven to at least double the functionality of their products every 18 to 36 months. One last added functionality decades ago.

[kunlun]

Here's a point I haven't heard discussed:

What comes after the Apple watch?

Apple is said to thinking about it, as you'd expect and they are working on glasses.

Yes, you remember google glass? Terrible, right? The technology was not mature enough yet. Compare the first cell phones (in a briefcase) to what we have now. Apple is betting that by 2023 glasses will be ready.

Bottom line? Your wrist real estate may be open for a new Rolex around then. And the watch industry may not be in as much trouble as it appears. Plus, a desire for things that don't stop working after 3 years might hit the younger generations...

[Brew]

Originally Posted by kunlun

Here's a point I haven't heard discussed:

What comes after the Apple watch?
...

Bottom line? Your wrist real estate may be open for a new Rolex around then. ...

Implant of some sort, likely in the wrist, resulting in re-sized Rolexes to accommodate the tech.

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by Lt Virgil Hilts

Just read that Apple sold more watches than the whole of the Swiss watch industry.
Some, Swiss manufacturers, survived the last appearance of a new timekeeping technology, but, electronic technology is accelerating and expanding faster
than ever.
Most of us here will say we like our Rolexes the way they are.
Rolex tried going down the, new technology route, some years ago, not too successful was it.

Will Geneva be considering some kind of 'Smart' device linked with a mechanical analog watch face, or will they be putting their heads in the sand, resting on their hard earned laurels, and hoping for the best?

Rolex sure isn’t acting like they care with supply not meeting consumer demand. I think eventually Rolex will be more like Patek as they continue to raise prices and have less volume.

[Pronto0322]

I wear my Apple Watch to work and gym everyday. The minute I go somewhere other then those 2 places (even if it’s for 5 min) My Rolex or other one of my mechanical watches immediately go on my wrist.


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[jackcarls0n]

Rolex like many other is a luxury brand of watches. Smart technology of watches is a different league.

Luxury brand themselves, who survives on the long run is a different story. They get hurt more by economic downturns than anything else. Rolex has a lot of history and a good business model so I think Rolex should be good for my lifetime.
Apple on the other hand might not exist! Remember Nokia!!

[garyk]

I remember when people said the time display on smart phones would eventually kill wrist watches. Didn't happen and never will...

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Lt Virgil Hilts

Just read that Apple sold more watches than the whole of the Swiss watch industry.
Some, Swiss manufacturers, survived the last appearance of a new timekeeping technology, but, electronic technology is accelerating and expanding faster
than ever.
Most of us here will say we like our Rolexes the way they are.
Rolex tried going down the, new technology route, some years ago, not too successful was it.

Will Geneva be considering some kind of 'Smart' device linked with a mechanical analog watch face, or will they be putting their heads in the sand, resting on their hard earned laurels, and hoping for the best?

No, disposable gimmicks such as apple watches that are really too small to be functional without the need for a phone, the fact that it is yet another device that needs to be charged, and the fact that it last a couple years only be to be replaced put it in a different category. This is not to mention the privacy and data collection concerns as well as the as yet unnvestigated effects of radiation and that close proximity to the body. So now I have no concerns. It’s basically like folks have a gshock and a Rolex. They are very different items.

[IndianRider]

Rolex shouldn't be worried at all.

[alex.cicollo]

As much as I’d love to agree - remember Kodak? Digital photography will never takes off... Remember HMV? Digital music will never take off.... anyway, I hope I’m wrong as I love my watches - but I think this is yet another industry that, at the high end, will still be disrupted. The low end of the market has already suffered with apple shipping more watches than the entire industry at that price point.... x


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[Harry49]

Apple sell very cheap watches and can be gotten anytime anywhere in the world..

[kachukachu96]

Indeed, Im 23 and if have to choose between my Rolex or Apple Watch for dailt wear would be a tough decision.
Recently I chose to wear both on both wrist to enjoy the mechanical and a lot of tools from Apple.


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[wappinghigh]

No Rolex is like the mechanical watch mafia - so they will be fine

I wouldn't be worried about Rolex

I wear my Rolex mechanical on one wrist and my Apple tech device on the other.

In time it will be the Apple tech device that will change (get smaller, be wearble somewhere else.. projected even onto your retina? embedded as a chip under your skin?..)

And Rolex (partic vintage) will live on.

That's because it will always remain a classic.

Cheers!