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Old 13 February 2020, 10:52 PM   #121
johnjm
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I've said it before and I'll say it again.

The world we live in now is one wrought with disposable tech. Even most cars are built to be disposable. Few things are available now that are made with passion, quality and built to last a life time.

Rolex is one of those niches that still exist for those reasons. Quality.

Nostalgia is a powerful thing, and a quality watch that will outlive you is something very special IMO.

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Old 13 February 2020, 11:08 PM   #122
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$350-$450 versus $859 average, see above.

Sweet... so double the price, and 2/3rds the volume.
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Old 13 February 2020, 11:14 PM   #123
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I don’t think Rolex has to worry this time around. When the quartz crisis hit, their watches represented some of the finest everyday mechanical watches money could buy. When the old paradigm was broken, Rolex made a brilliant move and set their sights on becoming one of the world’s best luxury brands.

Smart watches have been out for years and are more popular than ever. At the same time, demand for Rolex watches is at an all-time high. Smart watches are tools and Rolex watches are luxury goods, so they really aren’t in direct competition.
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Old 13 February 2020, 11:45 PM   #124
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[QUOTE=Pronto0322;10371401]Somebody once asked the CEO of Ferrari if they were interested in making an “ALL” electric car. He responded “you’d have to kill me first”. /QUOTE]

I think I saw him wearing an Apple.
.......a red one of course.

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Old 14 February 2020, 01:29 AM   #125
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Maybe when apple launches >10k usd watches they should. Function + status will be hard to beat i guess.
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Old 14 February 2020, 01:43 AM   #126
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This is a fun topic...

I'm an epidemiologist so I recommend we look at the data.

-Apple Watch has been increasing in units sold volume since launch
-Overall Swiss watch volume has been trending down for some time
-LUXURY Swiss watch volume has been trending UP for some time

My take away is that Swatch Group should be concerned (people are not buying as many low end Swatch Watches) and reallocate more resources to Omega and the like. Rolex should continue on its highly frustrating to buyers yet highly successful path of branding its product and sell exactly as many as it wants to sell.

People have different thought processes in the $100-$300 range than they do in the >$5000 range.

I think the high end of the industry only benefits from Apple Watch because it gets younger people comfortable with wearing something on their wrist. Eventually they will be able to afford something and want to be different. Rolex will be waiting with open arms and empty display cases.
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Old 14 February 2020, 01:43 AM   #127
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I can foresee a time in the future, maybe 2 or 3 generations when technology has become so deeply engrained in every aspect of our lives that watches, not just mechanical watches become artifacts. Now if something like an Apple watch sells for $10K+, is hard to source and becomes an object to covet like a Birkin bag or expensive watch, that would be cause for concern. Younger monied consumers might prefer that fancy smartwatch to a Rolex if it was considered a "luxury good"
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Old 14 February 2020, 02:15 AM   #128
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I agree with two sentiments expressed in this thread:
1) A luxury watch is a fashion accessory (and arguably one of the two only acceptable piece of "jewelry" for a man).
2) The people who buy Rolex and other high-end watches are not the same clientele as people who buy disposable Apple watches.

But are people aware of the "Hybrid" line from Frederique Constant? They are a young Swiss watch company that fits into the lower cost segment of luxury watches, and even have their own in-house manufacture automatic movements. They have a line of watches with full mechanical dials, which also include "smart watch" features. Trying to be the best of both worlds.... not sure I agree with the approach but it's interesting.

https://us.frederiqueconstant.com/co...cts/fc-750v4h6

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The Hybrid Manufacture is a revolutionary new luxury smartwatch that combines Swiss mechanical technologies with a manufacture caliber, monitoring both the wearer’s health and the watch’s mechanical movement via an in-house developed app. Its smart functions include sleep monitoring, activity tracking, analytics and a dynamic coach. These functions are visible on the watch’s counter at 12 o’clock as well as in the Hybrid app. This timepiece is featured with a stainless-steel case, modern stick indexes and a brown leather strap.
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Old 14 February 2020, 02:17 AM   #129
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I feel that smartwatches and wearables have potential to become an indispensable product, especially as more and more health features are added, such as glucose monitoring, pulse ox, etc. If insurance companies start subsidizing them across the board, it could have an even bigger impact.

As a massive Apple fan who owns an Apple Watch, I've never really seen them as a luxury product. Even when Apple sold the gold Edition watch at a range of 10K-18K USD, I thought it was a little silly. I believe it was to create a halo product and get it on the wrists of celebrities.
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Old 14 February 2020, 02:25 AM   #130
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I feel that smartwatches and wearables have potential to become an indispensable product, especially as more and more health features are added, such as glucose monitoring, pulse ox, etc. If insurance companies start subsidizing them across the board, it could have an even bigger impact.

As a massive Apple fan who owns an Apple Watch, I've never really seen them as a luxury product. Even when Apple sold the gold Edition watch at a range of 10K-18K USD, I thought it was a little silly. I believe it was to create a halo product and get it on the wrists of celebrities.
Agreed that the Gold apple watch was silly and targeted at celebrities. It came out the same time I decided to get my first Rolex. I considered the Apple Watch for some time, and even the gold one since I was willing to shell out $$ for Rolex I figured that maybe the Gold Apple was the way to go. Until I found out that it was not upgradeable. It would be one thing if they guaranteed that you could bring it in every 3 years and have them swap out the insides and let you keep using the gold case. But all consumer electronics have a limited lifespan (due to the pace of innovation in that segment) -- being, in effect, disposable items. So a disposable $10K gold watch? Uh, no thanks!

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Old 14 February 2020, 02:46 AM   #131
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This is why Rolex has nothing to worry about:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9Y4bmbh1KY

Rolex isn't about telling time anymore....People WANT Rolex just for being ROLEX.

And ROLEX means Wealth, Prestige, Quality, Durability, Longevity, Desirability....etc.

Ironically enough most the monetary based virtues of ROLEX, that the WIS would rather not discuss on TRF, is what keeps the brand more relevant than ever and allows ROLEX to easily overcome "threats" such as smartwatches.....if Rolex was only about a way to tell time for spelunkers, then we might have a problem....
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Old 14 February 2020, 02:55 AM   #132
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Apple Watch, airPods, glasses etc. They are all worthless gadgets that make you look like a sheep. I don't want anything Apple on my wrist, in my ears or on my nose. It's non-sense. A MacBook and an iPhone, that's all you'll ever need.
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Old 14 February 2020, 03:26 AM   #133
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It's safe to say Rolex, or for that matter the few luxury mechanical watch brands, are jewelry pieces first and timepieces second in this day and age.

I believe Rolex has been working its way upmarket exactly because of this market evolution; it is moving ahead of the digital onslaught, quite successfully.

By now I don't believe Rolex has to compete with any digital watch at all because it's already in a completely different market category. Nobody cross-shops between Rolex and Apple Watch.

The ones that really need to worry are the discount brands. These are the watches that are neither status symbol nor necessity; they will bear the direct impact from the digital watch.
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Old 14 February 2020, 03:53 AM   #134
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dtwer View Post
It's safe to say Rolex, or for that matter the few luxury mechanical watch brands, are jewelry pieces first and timepieces second in this day and age.

I believe Rolex has been working its way upmarket exactly because of this market evolution; it is moving ahead of the digital onslaught, quite successfully.

By now I don't believe Rolex has to compete with any digital watch at all because it's already in a completely different market category. Nobody cross-shops between Rolex and Apple Watch.

The ones that really need to worry are the discount brands. These are the watches that are neither status symbol nor necessity; they will bear the direct impact from the digital watch.
Happy to agree with you.
Seiko will have to try and push their GS range even further upmarket.
As for the rest of their quartz output, it'll get squeezed even more in a highly
compressed market.
As for Omega, Casio, Fossil et al, not to mention the wonderful Seagull, who knows how they'll handle the juggernaut of advancing technology.
All conjecture of course, and COVID-19, might, just might, change the future, and history, forever.
Always look on the bright side, eh.
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Old 14 February 2020, 04:10 AM   #135
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Apologies if this point has been made above, I haven’t read the whole thread.

Status signalling is both culturally and biologically ingrained in us. It happens in virtually all cultures and has done throughout history. It’s almost as fundamental to humans as the need to procreate.

So it’s highly probable status signalling will persist long into our future. That is Rolex’s business, far more so than making tools for telling time, whatever enthusiasts may think. Whether they’ll continue to capitalise on their current position as the pre-eminent status brand is up for debate, but the proliferation of wearable technology will not be the thing that topples them.
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Old 14 February 2020, 06:26 AM   #136
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The Rolex and Apple watch are miles apart. When you buy a Rolex its a watch that can be handed down to your children, its a watch that can be serviced it will hold value, its a piece of jewellery.

A apple watch is not serviceable, when it brakes it will need to be replaced, in a few years it will be outdated like all electronic gizmos. it loses money soon as you walk out the shop and continues to do so. Apple watches are overpriced junk.
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Old 14 February 2020, 06:27 AM   #137
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Sweet... so double the price, and 2/3rds the volume.
Yep... a 115 year head start almost gone in four years, and gone with a near certainty this year or next.
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Old 14 February 2020, 06:49 AM   #138
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I don’t know Brett, most of my friends who collect watches including myself all own Apple watches as well. I don’t think it’s an either or case as one looking for a Rolex or Patek isn’t going to shop that against an Apple or smart watch nor vice versa.
Exactly!

For a variety of reasons, I wear my Apple watch for work and generally wear my mechanical watches during social evenings, weekends and holidays.
No harm no foul.
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Old 14 February 2020, 06:57 AM   #139
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Quote:
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A apple watch is not serviceable, when it brakes it will need to be replaced, in a few years it will be outdated like all electronic gizmos. it loses money soon as you walk out the shop and continues to do so. Apple watches are overpriced junk.


But for the cost of Rolex service you could buy two apple watches. My Daytona service was about $1000 USD in the past. So if you service a Rolex every six years it is about the equivalent as a new Apple Watch every 3 years. You are entitled to your opinion of course but someone else could argue that mechanical watches are way overpriced for what they do. Then add gold or precious metals and you’re paying a huge premium.

I’ve got an AP, Patek and Apple Watch. They all get wrist time, but for different reasons.


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Old 14 February 2020, 06:58 AM   #140
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Happy to agree with you.
Seiko will have to try and push their GS range even further upmarket.
As for the rest of their quartz output, it'll get squeezed even more in a highly
compressed market.
As for Omega, Casio, Fossil et al, not to mention the wonderful Seagull, who knows how they'll handle the juggernaut of advancing technology.
All conjecture of course, and COVID-19, might, just might, change the future, and history, forever.
Always look on the bright side, eh.
Yes I think the high-end brands and low-end brands would most likely be ok.

The low-end brands like Fossil, Seiko, Luminox, etc. should be fine because the threshold to acquire is low; they are well within people's frivolous spending zone for simple beaters.

The brands that I believe would be most at risk are the mid tiers, like Omega, Breitling, etc. These are way too expensive to be a frivolous spending yet not prestigious enough to hold their values.
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Old 14 February 2020, 07:38 AM   #141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stlwatchlvr View Post
This is a fun topic...

I'm an epidemiologist so I recommend we look at the data.

-Apple Watch has been increasing in units sold volume since launch
-Overall Swiss watch volume has been trending down for some time
-LUXURY Swiss watch volume has been trending UP for some time

My take away is that Swatch Group should be concerned (people are not buying as many low end Swatch Watches) and reallocate more resources to Omega and the like. Rolex should continue on its highly frustrating to buyers yet highly successful path of branding its product and sell exactly as many as it wants to sell.

People have different thought processes in the $100-$300 range than they do in the >$5000 range.

I think the high end of the industry only benefits from Apple Watch because it gets younger people comfortable with wearing something on their wrist. Eventually they will be able to afford something and want to be different. Rolex will be waiting with open arms and empty display cases.
^ Yes, this exactly! Sums it up nicely. And provides another explanation for why Rolex isn't increasing production to meet demand...

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Old 14 February 2020, 07:57 AM   #142
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Recently a friend of mine who never wore a watch before, after I showed him my new Yachtmaster 40, went out and bought.......an Apple watch. So in a certain way, these things are in competition.

However an Apple watch will never be a keepsake. It will never see more auction interest than an old PC. It won't be admired 20 years down the road, any more than a first-generation iPod is admired today. In that way, it has little in common with mechanical watches.
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Old 14 February 2020, 07:59 AM   #143
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Recently a friend of mine who never wore a watch before, after I showed him my new Yachtmaster 40, went out and bought.......an Apple watch. So in a certain way, these things are in competition.

However an Apple watch will never be a keepsake. It will never see more auction interest than any other non-rate obsolete computer. It won't be admired 20 years down the road, any more than an example of a first-generation iPod is admired today, which is to say, very slightly. In that way, the Apple watch has little in common with mechanical watches.
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Old 14 February 2020, 08:16 AM   #144
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No one needs to wear a watch anymore. The technology is already long outdated. The proposed concern is whether the wrist real estate will be available in the future when smartwatches apparently are to become essential for human existence. Real mark of the devil stuff. It said as much in the Bible. Or something.
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Old 14 February 2020, 08:30 AM   #145
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Paintings that you hang up on the wall has survived the advent of televisions (superior tech), so likely wrist watches will continue to survive the onslaught of Apple watch advancement. Super long term, the tech gets embedded into the human body as cybernetics anyways right? So back to wearing nice art on wrist.

However, I would say medium term, the brand is really risking itself with the poor brand experience through the AD network right now. It's far from a luxury experience now. At least when Hermes plays the scarcity game, it's first class in the store all the way.

The Rolex product may be first class, but the retail experience is pretty cargo bay quality at this point.
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Old 14 February 2020, 11:43 AM   #146
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Forbes: “ In 2015, the year the Apple Watch was launched, LVMH watch division president and Tag Heuer CEO Jean-Claude Biver said the Swiss industry was not afraid of Apple’s new product, because it could not be repaired in a thousand years or eighty years, nor inherited by children, nor would it ever become a status symbol. As is always the case when disruption occurs in an industry, traditional competitors are not able to see the threat, and continue to try to analyze it according to the variables that were important yesterday.”

This thread shows that we also can’t see the threat.

$3 Chinese watches will be fine. Top Swiss makers will be fine.

The middle will be decimated.
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Old 14 February 2020, 11:50 AM   #147
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Yes I think the high-end brands and low-end brands would most likely be ok.

The low-end brands like Fossil, Seiko, Luminox, etc. should be fine because the threshold to acquire is low; they are well within people's frivolous spending zone for simple beaters.

The brands that I believe would be most at risk are the mid tiers, like Omega, Breitling, etc. These are way too expensive to be a frivolous spending yet not prestigious enough to hold their values.
This is exactly what will happen. It already is starting, especially Breitling, IWC..etc
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Old 14 February 2020, 12:10 PM   #148
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This is exactly what will happen. It already is starting, especially Breitling, IWC..etc
Agreed, but I certainly wouldn't include Omega in that.
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Old 14 February 2020, 12:12 PM   #149
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this is exactly what will happen. It already is starting, especially breitling, iwc..etc
Oops double post
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Old 14 February 2020, 12:35 PM   #150
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Agreed, but I certainly wouldn't include Omega in that.
I would second that.
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