Should Rolex be worried, long term?

[TR6]

Originally Posted by Frits1980

Maybe when apple launches >10k usd watches they should. Function + status will be hard to beat i guess.

They've tried that.

https://www.theverge.com/2016/9/7/12...y-watch-market

From the 2016 article, "Apple’s luxury watch dream is over",

" Apple was the latest entrant, attempting to break in two years ago with the 18-karat gold Apple Watch Edition, which started at $10,000 and topped out at $17,000. It was essentially a luxury watch starter kit: it was gold, expensive, and Apple handed out custom versions to fashionable celebrities like Beyoncé and Karl Lagerfeld for the free promotion.

But now that watch is dead. You won't find a trace of it on Apple's website. The first generation Apple Watch Edition has been replaced by a ceramic version that will sell for a tenth of the price of the cheapest gold model, marking the end of Apple's attempt to woo luxury watch owners."

[GGGMT]

Cool discussion. I think the products don’t compete. Just like Range Rover and pinto. Both get you there but difft demographics


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[daveycrawford]

My opinion is yea apple and smart watches-even regular watches for time keeping like G Shocks all have a place. But for me in the vintage scene I often wear a modern "reliable and accurate and functional watch" on my right hand. This is to do 2 things tell the time and check how accurate the vintage piece is on my left wrist which I wear to keep on top of in rotation and because I love. So I do not think there is a problem you can have modern and high tech along side Rolex or other so called high end watches
Just my opinion

[samson66]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

Agreed, but I certainly wouldn't include Omega in that.

I will third that. Omega is selling like crazy right now and yes this has a lot to do with the scarcity of Rolex SS models.

[stlwatchlvr]

Originally Posted by samson66

I will third that. Omega is selling like crazy right now and yes this has a lot to do with the scarcity of Rolex SS models.

I bought an Omega exactly for this reason....impatience! 2 months later (not really a long time) my Rolex AD got the watch I wanted. Now I have two really nice watches. :)


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[boogiebot]

I don’t think any of these Swiss watch manufacturers are worried. They way they are positioning themselves is to be more high end jewelry. I mean thing about it, does anyone need a 10k dollar dive watch? You can buy a g shock with more functions for 100 bucks.

[Cwillis0001]

Long time lurker, first time poster.

In the long, LONG term Rolex should absolutely be worried. If they want to ponder a future cautionary tale, they need to look no further than 2020 Harley Davidson of all companies. Anyone else remember waitlisted Fat Boys, silly premiums, and kissing dealers asses? Well I do and if you'd have told the Harley people and customers that in a couple decades that the party will be soundly over, they'd have smugly laughed in your face. Now look at them.

[dtwer]

Found this luxury watch revenue trend report, quite interesting.

https://www.statista.com/outlook/210...ches/worldwide

Overall the luxury watch sales appear to be on the upward trend. In 2019 the industry has generated a whopping USD $30.3 billions in revenue. Not shabby at all.

[dtwer]

This report tells the market share amongst the Swiss luxury brands.

https://www.afr.com/life-and-luxury/...0190415-p51efj

Guess who takes the cake? The good ol’ Rolex.

At 22% share of the worldwide sales, Rolex practically eclipses everyone else.

I am also surprised by Longines 6.4%; didn’t think that is as popular a brand as the figures suggest.

[PepsiBezel]

Smart watches help to get the next generation use to wearing something on their wrists... in time some will convert to mechanical watches.

Also, plenty of young folks are into mechanical watches, probably a larger percentage than expected... just look at Instagram.

[mbalmz]

Originally Posted by TR6

They've tried that.

https://www.theverge.com/2016/9/7/12...y-watch-market

From the 2016 article, "Apple’s luxury watch dream is over",

a $10k watch that will be obsolete in a year and stop working entirely in 5. shocking this didn't pan out.

[fed_fan]

Rolex would dismiss the effect of smart watches at their own peril. Clearly the company does not directly compete with the Apple Watch but a lot of downmarket watch manufactures do. This disruption in the market has driven lower tier watch players to move up market which drives more competition in the Rolex sandbox so to speak. Rolex is certainly not immune from the second order effects of smartwatches.

Just take a look at the stock prices of Fossil, Movado, Citizen, Seiko, Swatch Group, Richemont, etc. They are all feeling the pain as their business models are under a tremendous amount of pressure which has partly been driven by the proliferation of smartwatches. Unit growth will be hard to come by so pricing will be the long-term lever for a lot of these players...that is a hard game to play. Even the almighty Patek Philippe has scaled back its ambitions - in a 2020 interview with the NYT, Thierry Stern said his ambition is to grow revenues by no more than 3% per annum. That is an indictment of the structural headwinds facing luxury watch manufactures.

Many others have mentioned the quartz crisis as a relevant analog and I would agree with that but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Those watches were better and cheaper but they did not represent a paradigm shift. The iWatch represents a paradigm shift as its features are a revolution, not necessarily an evolution; this will likely accelerate as 5G proliferates and drives a level innovation that is hard to predict at this moment but clearly negative for the incumbent watch companies.

[SearChart]

Rolex has acquired so much real estate in Switzerland and other European countries over the years that they don't have to worry about income from selling watches. Atleast this is what everyone at Rolex tells you.

[Speedbird-1]

Originally Posted by SearChart

Rolex has acquired so much real estate in Switzerland and other European countries over the years that they don't have to worry about income from selling watches. Atleast this is what everyone at Rolex tells you.

Interesting Bas. What else has "everyone at Rolex" told you?
.....Is the new GMT Coke REALLY Platinum, and on a Super Jubilee?

[AssettsPros]

Interesting subject. Yes technology and accuracy is tough for Rolex to compete with in terms of an Apple iWatch....however, there are very few things left in this world that has the level of craftsmanship, quality of materials, and mechanical works in a thing that is so simple as it just tells time, but incredibly difficult to duplicate. For me, it’s the appreciation of the mechanical movement, history of the company, quality of materials, and the fact that it’s man made and doesn’t need to be plugged in! Not too many other things that can compete with that!

[HogwldFLTR]

IMHO, the only companies that don't worry about the future are those which are headed for extinction. I'm certain Rolex makes plans!!!

[Frits1980]

Originally Posted by TR6

They've tried that.

https://www.theverge.com/2016/9/7/12...y-watch-market

From the 2016 article, "Apple’s luxury watch dream is over",

First try? Maybe when they do something in gold with a module that can be updated/replaced with an updated verson. Maybe something custom based to your health. If i could have a watch that advises me when im short on some vitamine, been in contact with the flue virus or detect bad cells etc etc well that would be something for me to consider a smart watch. Who knows.

[Cwillis0001]

Originally Posted by HogwldFLTR

IMHO, the only companies that don't worry about the future are those which are headed for extinction. I'm certain Rolex makes plans!!!

I certainly agree with this. I don't really think Rolex is going to lose out to Apple per se; I think a bigger obstacle is generational shift. I know its impossible for some to imagine that the next generation might not exactly embrace luxury watches, but it sure wouldn't surprise me much.

[djgallo]

Originally Posted by Cwillis0001

Long time lurker, first time poster.

In the long, LONG term Rolex should absolutely be worried. If they want to ponder a future cautionary tale, they need to look no further than 2020 Harley Davidson of all companies. Anyone else remember waitlisted Fat Boys, silly premiums, and kissing dealers asses? Well I do and if you'd have told the Harley people and customers that in a couple decades that the party will be soundly over, they'd have smugly laughed in your face. Now look at them.

Welcome to the forum. I didn’t realize that a Harley is a luxury purchase...

[alettiere]

A guy at work asked me once - why would you spend so much money on a watch when my Apple watch can do so many things that yours cannot?

My answer was simple:

In five years, your "watch" will be irrelevant. Mine will not. Nor will it ever be.

[Cwillis0001]

Originally Posted by djgallo

I didn’t realize that a Harley is a luxury purchase...

A 25 or 30K motorcycle that in the vast majority of cases is no one's primary mode of transportation and gets ridden maybe a thousand miles a year? I would certainly call that a discretionary bordering on luxury purchase. And like Rolex it has a pretty die hard yet quickly aging clientele in a lot of cases. Also like Rolex, a lot of Harley buyers were motivated by big name recognition and the promise of "holding value" on the secondary market.

[Cwillis0001]

Originally Posted by djgallo

Welcome to the forum.

Thank you by the way, sir.

[djgallo]

Originally Posted by Cwillis0001

A 25 or 30K motorcycle that in the vast majority of cases is no one's primary mode of transportation and gets ridden maybe a thousand miles a year?

The Hells Angels and other groups may disagree on that....

I would certainly call that a discretionary bordering on luxury purchase. And like Rolex it has a pretty die hard yet quickly aging clientele in a lot of cases. Also like Rolex, a lot of Harley buyers were motivated by big name recognition and the promise of "holding value" on the secondary market.

On second thought...you do make some good points/comparisons...

[FATO]

The smart watches are taking over the younger generation. This younger generation is going to be Rolex’s future potential clients 10-20 years from now when they can afford one. Will Rolex survive 20 years from now? we shall see.

The survival of a company is dependent on the contemporary demographic who 1) shows an interest in their product and 2) who can afford this product. We are Rolex current demographic. We grew up appreciating all things mechanical; however, the younger generation are growing up appreciating all things electronic. Will they still want to buy Rolex 20 years from now? The alternate option is a smart watch that will have improvements by leaps and bounds in 20 years. If Apple comes out with a smart watch that can replace the phone and uses some form of a hologram for a screen (it is completely plausible in 20 years), that ubiquitous smart watch is going to be the shift in the trend. Will they wear their apple watch on one wrist and a Rolex on the other? All it takes is a change in a social trend of thoughts to drastically affect Rolex survival. After all, Rolex singlehandedly made the pocket watches obsolete because it is more convenient as a tool than a pocket watch and it appeals to the masses. It is presumptuous to think that Rolex is forever immune to market changes because it’s Rolex. GE was once a behemoth and we didn’t expect it to shrink to the size it is today.

I do hope that Rolex will survive and thrive for a long time, but I am pragmatic and I believe nothing is static.


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[Cwillis0001]

Originally Posted by djgallo

On second thought...you do make some good points/comparisons...

Thanks. Don't even get me started on the similarities regarding litigious and sometimes overzealous brand protection, hardball tactics with their own dealers, and the disposing of longtime retail relationships that no longer fit the corporate image.

[10klakes]

If you think Rolex is going to become obsolete to the up and coming generations, log off your desktop computer, and get out into the real world.

It’s all about status and being able to show it.

Recently at a casino, I was complimented on my Exp II polar (216570) by an early 20s young man. This is not the compliment I’ve had in recent times by younger people that see/notice/comment, and appreciate/aspire.

Many sneaker collecting friends in their 20s and 30s are very interested in PP, AP, and Rolex, way more now than 5 or 10 years ago.

Mechanical watches are “in” and it’s only setting the stage for years to come when these up and comers have the bank roll to get deeper into them.

[challer]

Originally Posted by djgallo

Welcome to the forum. I didn’t realize that a Harley is a luxury purchase...

when did lasting forever become the reason go own a Rolex?

[FATO]

Originally Posted by 10klakes

If you think Rolex is going to become obsolete to the up and coming generations, log off your desktop computer, and get out into the real world.

It’s all about status and being able to show it.

Recently at a casino, I was complimented on my Exp II polar (216570) by an early 20s young man. This is not the compliment I’ve had in recent times by younger people that see/notice/comment, and appreciate/aspire.

Many sneaker collecting friends in their 20s and 30s are very interested in PP, AP, and Rolex, way more now than 5 or 10 years ago.

Mechanical watches are “in” and it’s only setting the stage for years to come when these up and comers have the bank roll to get deeper into them.

You based your prediction on one anecdotal incident at a casino? Maybe You should get out of the casino and get out into the real world.


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[Cwillis0001]

Originally Posted by 10klakes

If you think Rolex is going to become obsolete to the up and coming generations, log off your desktop computer, and get out into the real world.

It’s all about status and being able to show it.

Recently at a casino, I was complimented on my Exp II polar (216570) by an early 20s young man. This is not the compliment I’ve had in recent times by younger people that see/notice/comment, and appreciate/aspire.

Many sneaker collecting friends in their 20s and 30s are very interested in PP, AP, and Rolex, way more now than 5 or 10 years ago.

Mechanical watches are “in” and it’s only setting the stage for years to come when these up and comers have the bank roll to get deeper into them.

Well you're right that it's about status and being able to show it. Of course, it's about status right now, today. That doesn't necessarily mean it'll be a status symbol twenty or thirty years from now. Think of some of the status symbols from the past and it's almost laughable how out of vogue they are now. Pianos in the living room, new encyclopedia sets every year, time shares, fine china, etc etc etc.

You say that mechanical watches are "in." That's definitely true but it's worth noting that if something has the ability to be "in", it also has the ability to be "out." Of course, only time will tell.

[10klakes]

Originally Posted by FATO

You based your prediction on one anecdotal incident at a casino? Maybe You should get out of the casino and get out into the real world.


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