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Old 17 January 2020, 02:37 AM   #1
Arcticsub
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Current production 1861 Speedmaster value proposition

Seeing as it's a public secret that the 1861 movement is on its way out, what do you guys think about the value proposition of the current hesalite 1861 speedmaster?

I've noticed that they aren't on display at multiple AD's I know, I've also seen grey prices go up quite a bit these last months.

What would happen to the 1861 hesalite speedmaster market value after the introduction of the 3861 speedmaster? Knowing Omega, I'd say the base speedmaster is going to go up in price by at least 2k euro. Thoughts?
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Old 17 January 2020, 04:29 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by Arcticsub View Post
Seeing as it's a public secret that the 1861 movement is on its way out, what do you guys think about the value proposition of the current hesalite 1861 speedmaster?

I've noticed that they aren't on display at multiple AD's I know, I've also seen grey prices go up quite a bit these last months.

What would happen to the 1861 hesalite speedmaster market value after the introduction of the 3861 speedmaster? Knowing Omega, I'd say the base speedmaster is going to go up in price by at least 2k euro. Thoughts?


Not likely, in fact there could be a drop. There are literally thousands of them out their for one reason. The 1861 is somewhat of an inbetween movement in that the 321 went to the moon and the others just to space. More people will initially be interested in the 3861 due to the perceived and real advantages, and likely won’t cost much more than the current version. It looks to be an objectively better movement. So I don’t see any real bump for the 1861 unless perhaps the tritium 861 versions a little.
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Old 17 January 2020, 04:29 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by Arcticsub View Post
Seeing as it's a public secret that the 1861 movement is on its way out, what do you guys think about the value proposition of the current hesalite 1861 speedmaster?

I've noticed that they aren't on display at multiple AD's I know, I've also seen grey prices go up quite a bit these last months.

What would happen to the 1861 hesalite speedmaster market value after the introduction of the 3861 speedmaster? Knowing Omega, I'd say the base speedmaster is going to go up in price by at least 2k euro. Thoughts?
Was in Paris and Madrid a few weeks ago, plenty of plexi Speedys on display.
Can't imagine the value going up except for suckers that are speculating and trying to sell. There have been a bajillion made and available on the second hand market.
If Omega updates the movement and leaves the aesthetics alone, they will just have a better watch. The previous gen Omega Planet Oceans, Seamasters, etc haven't faired well and even the desired PO2500 never gained steam. I know the Speedy is a more iconic watch but the 1861 Speedy in base form is nothing special and unfortunately there are dozens of Omega LEs to chase if someone wants to get fancy about an 1861 Speedy.
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Old 17 January 2020, 04:43 AM   #4
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Not likely, in fact there could be a drop. There are literally thousands of them out their for one reason. The 1861 is somewhat of an inbetween movement in that the 321 went to the moon and the others just to space. More people will initially be interested in the 3861 due to the perceived and real advantages, and likely won’t cost much more than the current version. It looks to be an objectively better movement. So I don’t see any real bump for the 1861 unless perhaps the tritium 861 versions a little.
Taking your example, there are thousands of 14060's out there, they have also not been hurt by (superior) movement upgrades. Quite the opposite.
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Old 17 January 2020, 04:50 AM   #5
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Taking your example, there are thousands of 14060's out there, they have also not been hurt by (superior) movement upgrades. Quite the opposite.


Yes, but and this is a big but. Omega is not (perceived by others) Rolex. In this market their is Rolex and PP and the rest. That’s it. The 5 digit sub change was a big one and many still like the more modest proportions the 5 digit offers.

With the speedy, there was no physical change per se, just an improved movement so no downside here other than price. If omega jacks up the price by 2000 euros as you say, then that might drive people to see the value. I can agree with that. However, if the watch comes in at only 500-700 more euros for an identical watch with a demonstrably better movement then people may see the value in upgrading, creating a flood of people flipping their old versions for the new.

But the pricing in my opinion may be a real factor as to what happens to the 1861. I mean for me personally, the 861/1861 is closer (though still far) “relative” to the original movement than the 3861, so I’ll be likely sticking with the 1861 which has been used in space for decades now.


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Old 17 January 2020, 04:55 AM   #6
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Was in Paris and Madrid a few weeks ago, plenty of plexi Speedys on display.
Can't imagine the value going up except for suckers that are speculating and trying to sell. There have been a bajillion made and available on the second hand market.
If Omega updates the movement and leaves the aesthetics alone, they will just have a better watch. The previous gen Omega Planet Oceans, Seamasters, etc haven't faired well and even the desired PO2500 never gained steam. I know the Speedy is a more iconic watch but the 1861 Speedy in base form is nothing special and unfortunately there are dozens of Omega LEs to chase if someone wants to get fancy about an 1861 Speedy.
I disagree, quite the opposite actually. The movement is a tried and true workhorse, earning it's chops in the most extreme of circumstances (EVA) for over 40 years. Calling it nothing special is, um, weird.
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Old 17 January 2020, 05:01 AM   #7
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With the speedy, there was no physical change per se, just an improved movement so no downside here other than price. If omega jacks up the price by 2000 euros as you say, then that might drive people to see the value. I can agree with that. However, if the watch comes in at only 500-700 more euros for an identical watch with a demonstrably better movement then people may see the value in upgrading, creating a flood of people flipping their old versions for the new.
Good point. Comes to the heart of what i'm trying to figure out. I'm pretty certain Omega is going to jack up the price by 2k. But one can never know for sure.
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Old 17 January 2020, 05:10 AM   #8
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Good point. Comes to the heart of what i'm trying to figure out. I'm pretty certain Omega is going to jack up the price by 2k. But one can never know for sure.


Indeed, and I’m not certain that would be “too expensive” meaning that the breitling b01 is at like 8-9 thousand is dollars and the 3861 would likely be about +2 accuracy as well as antimagnetic, and will be a very strong movement. I think as we have seen with the new 321 that people are willing to pay more when Rolex is on the dial versus when other brands are in the dial.

But if that is the case, and the speedy jumps to almost 8,000 US dollars, people may start snapping up 1861’s. However their will be a ceiling
here because as the older version’s price gets driven up to the 3861 version, people will see the value in having that version, so I can’t say for sure what will happen to the price of the 1861, I think there will be a cap on how high it will go, and my best guess would not be much above the 5,000 to 5,500 US dollar mark.


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Old 17 January 2020, 07:51 AM   #9
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I am afraid that the hesalite version of the new 3861 speedy won’t be certified by Nasa for EVA which would be a dealbreaker for me...
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Old 17 January 2020, 08:54 AM   #10
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I am afraid that the hesalite version of the new 3861 speedy won’t be certified by Nasa for EVA which would be a dealbreaker for me...


I’m planning on spring break in space in 2030, so gonna hang on to my 1861


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Old 17 January 2020, 09:07 AM   #11
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I am afraid that the hesalite version of the new 3861 speedy won’t be certified by Nasa for EVA which would be a dealbreaker for me...
I thought one of the reasons the Speedy was chosen was because of the shatterproof crystal, among other reasons.

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Old 17 January 2020, 10:05 AM   #12
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I don't think raising the price of a watch that sells today at a 20% (or more) discount makes much sense, especially if the changes are only understood by a small percentage of buyers.

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Old 17 January 2020, 07:50 PM   #13
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I don't think raising the price of a watch that sells today at a 20% (or more) discount makes much sense, especially if the changes are only understood by a small percentage of buyers.

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I remember not that long back Submariners being sold for 10-17% off list price. Didn't stop Rolex from significantly increasing their prices really.
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Old 17 January 2020, 07:57 PM   #14
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I am afraid that the hesalite version of the new 3861 speedy won’t be certified by Nasa for EVA which would be a dealbreaker for me...
I recall reading somewhere that Omega and NASA supposedly agreed to Omega doing the exact same tests on the new 3861 and that NASA will approve (if it passed, which I assume it did).

No way will Omega release a new standard Speedy moonwatch that isn't approved. Makes zero business sense.
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Old 18 January 2020, 04:14 AM   #15
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Good point. Comes to the heart of what i'm trying to figure out. I'm pretty certain Omega is going to jack up the price by 2k. But one can never know for sure.
I suspect they will jack up the price but it will be for a reason. Likely to have a ceramic bezel, sapphire crystal and the new movement. It’s the way omega is going by trying to fill the Rolex price point. The new movement is fantastic. Mine runs at -1 second a day over the last 20 days or so.

Even if that raises the price, I see no reason why the 1861 would raise also. Maybe the usual bounce of a discontinued model maybe.
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Old 18 January 2020, 06:52 AM   #16
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I am afraid that the hesalite version of the new 3861 speedy won’t be certified by Nasa for EVA which would be a dealbreaker for me...
No, they would cert the movement other wise the watch looses its appeal. Then it’s not a true moonwatch and never will be. That’s a deal breaker there and I’m sure omega would not do that.
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Old 18 January 2020, 01:18 PM   #17
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I, for one would gladly trade my Sapphire Sandwich for an identical, or slightly changed Speedy with the improved 3861 movement. Even more so if it has a ceramic bezel, and the Apollo 50th style bracelet.
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Old 20 January 2020, 02:15 AM   #18
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As @zengineer wrote above, I'll bet most Omega owners don't know what movement their watch contains, and of the few that do, few of them would bother to upgrade just for that.

Count me in the latter.
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Old 20 January 2020, 02:38 AM   #19
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Given the announced price of the new 321 Ed White remake, I would think that the 3861 version will go up by around $2K. That won't necessarily bump up the price of the remaining 1861s that Omega will have in stock (and that will be a considerable number). That said, I would guess that if Omega intends to see the 3861 carry the NASA certification (and it's impossible to think they wouldn't, especially with the upcoming Artemis program), the 3861 will have a Hesalite crystal. I believe it's essential to get NASA approval.
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Old 20 January 2020, 07:10 AM   #20
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Originally Posted by GradyPhilpott View Post
I thought one of the reasons the Speedy was chosen was because of the shatterproof crystal, among other reasons.

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I think you are right, bud.
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Old 23 January 2020, 09:21 AM   #21
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I, for one would gladly trade my Sapphire Sandwich for an identical, or slightly changed Speedy with the improved 3861 movement. Even more so if it has a ceramic bezel, and the Apollo 50th style bracelet.
I don't think a ceramic bezel would help with NASA flight certification. I doubt we'll see it on the new basic moonwatch, but who knows.
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