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Old 7 December 2018, 06:35 AM   #61
dudley123
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Interesting discussion.. I grew up wearing Seikos as a kid all the way through high-school and college. Stepped up into the Omega brand in my early-mid 20's and now a Rolex owner at 30.
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Old 7 December 2018, 06:40 AM   #62
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Only time will tell, but currently Rolex sales are at an all time high. Of course this trend is connected in some part to the long-standing bull market.
It's a perfect storm right now, all things aligned to give Rolex a fantastic couple of last-hurrah's before things get rougher. Economy roaring, employment high, the last of the baby boomer's in peak earning years, brand mentions in movies and TV shows and hip-hop songs, releases of long-awaited references like a black bezel Daytona and a Pepsi GMT, and of course the big one- social media. The likes of Instagram and Facebook putting status symbolism and materialism above all else just fueling the fire.

But as the last of the baby boomers enter their fixed income years and an entire generation of non-watch wearers takes their place in the workforce you're going to see it all change. Not for Rolex, but for almost every other brand.
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Old 7 December 2018, 06:42 AM   #63
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That’s awesome. And outlier enthusiasts like you and I will still exist in the future, not much different than today’s vinyl fans.

I’m referring to the big picture in a world that’s about to be flooded with college graduates to whom a wristwatch is meaningless.

i dont think so, watches aren't just timepieces, they are jewellry and fashion, and that never dies,

they said quartz would kill the mechanical watch, but both methods run side by side,

so phones and watches will live side by side
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Old 7 December 2018, 06:45 AM   #64
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Interesting discussion.. I grew up wearing Seikos as a kid all the way through high-school and college. Stepped up into the Omega brand in my early-mid 20's and now a Rolex owner at 30.
So many of us follow the same pattern. For me, Casio in high school, Seiko in college, Swatch in my first job, then vintage Hamilton, vintage Rolex, new Omega, new Tag Heuer, and then at 35 my first new Rolex and then several added after that. Today's youth went straight to cellphones and don't like things on their wrists. The Apple watch, ironically, may be the best hope for luxury wristwatches in that some youngsters wear those and at least are getting an affinity for one.

That group of sub-$3,000 Swiss wristwatch makers are going to be in a whole heap of trouble. Tag, Omega, Breitling, they'll be too expensive for someone dabbling in the hobby and too inexpensive to be flashy status jewelry. Look for them to collapse first.
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Old 7 December 2018, 06:50 AM   #65
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i dont think so, watches aren't just timepieces, they are jewellry and fashion, and that never dies,

they said quartz would kill the mechanical watch, but both methods run side by side, so phones and watches will live side by side
At least quartz was a watch. No watch is no watch.

We're saying the same thing except I contend that those who have never owned a watch in their formative years all jump from "never" to age 40 before they discover they want that piece of fashion jewelry to show off their wealth a little bit. And that's what will keep Rolex alive. But those other brands whose timepieces don't have a second function as a status symbol and are used to brisk sales to those young executives in their 20's and 30's like Omega and Tag? Lights out.
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Old 7 December 2018, 06:58 AM   #66
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Bingo! You're exactly who Rolex is catering to in the future.

No need for a watch as a functional timepiece, got to a certain age, have the wife, the house, the kids, have that VP title, got a nice bonus, time to reward yourself with a shiny piece of jewelry, a status symbol that impresses the boardroom crowd and makes you feel good too.

Rolex isn't concerning itself with the 27 year old junior executive or his budget woes and they aren't starving for every last dollar that crawls into a mom-and-pop AD. The survival of Rolex depends upon making my "who-needs-a-wristwatch?" 20 year old son yearn for one of their timepieces when he turns 42.
On my way back from lunch I stopped by a large volume AD. He chuckled at your theory about purposely restricting volume to keep generating interest. He said when the original Pepsi came out it was largely unpopular. He said they decided to test the market again but of course didn’t produce a large volume because of history and a sport watch with a jubilee bracelet. He said Rolex had no clue it would become this popular. Additionally, he said since Rolex has developed the new 72 hour movement they are slowly going to transition all sport models to this movement (naturally), and consequently they aren’t producing the older sport models at the same volume as they are transitioning - hence the perceived shortage. Makes a lot of sense to me.
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Old 7 December 2018, 07:08 AM   #67
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At least quartz was a watch. No watch is no watch.

We're saying the same thing except I contend that those who have never owned a watch in their formative years all jump from "never" to age 40 before they discover they want that piece of fashion jewelry to show off their wealth a little bit. And that's what will keep Rolex alive. But those other brands whose timepieces don't have a second function as a status symbol and are used to brisk sales to those young executives in their 20's and 30's like Omega and Tag? Lights out.
a watch is a watch
a phone is a phone
a clock is in your car, but its a car first

i remember when red led digital was going to put the analogue watch out of business

i know loads of young people with mutiple swatch and timex and several phones, its all one big time festival.

trust me, the watch will never die, high end or low end.
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Old 7 December 2018, 07:09 AM   #68
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On my way back from lunch I stopped by a large volume AD. He chuckled at your theory about purposely restricting volume to keep generating interest. He said when the original Pepsi came out it was largely unpopular. He said they decided to test the market again but of course didn’t produce a large volume because of history and a sport watch with a jubilee bracelet. He said Rolex had no clue it would become this popular. Additionally, he said since Rolex has developed the new 72 hour movement they are slowly going to transition all sport models to this movement (naturally), and consequently they aren’t producing the older sport models at the same volume as they are transitioning - hence the perceived shortage. Makes a lot of sense to me.
The AD knows none of these things for a fact. He has no idea what Rolex is doing or why it is doing it.

All circumstantial evidence actually supports that Rolex knew the stainless steel BLRO would be a fan favorite. It isn't a market test. The past 30-40 years have shown that people love the Pepsi GMT-Master. It's an obvious nostalgia grab on Rolex's part and a wise one. Perhaps initially, the model didn't sell well, but Rolex long figured out that fans crave the Pepsi bezel. They just couldn't do it in ceramic previously. The BLNR was the first bicolor ceramic bezel and the BLRO is the evolution of that.

Another example is the Explorer II. The original Explorer II barely sold at all. 30 years go by and fans are clamoring for the orange hand to return. What does Rolex do? It puts it on the modern Explorer II.
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Old 7 December 2018, 07:15 AM   #69
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On my way back from lunch I stopped by a large volume AD. He chuckled at your theory about purposely restricting volume to keep generating interest. He said when the original Pepsi came out it was largely unpopular. He said they decided to test the market again but of course didn’t produce a large volume because of history and a sport watch with a jubilee bracelet. He said Rolex had no clue it would become this popular. Additionally, he said since Rolex has developed the new 72 hour movement they are slowly going to transition all sport models to this movement (naturally), and consequently they aren’t producing the older sport models at the same volume as they are transitioning - hence the perceived shortage. Makes a lot of sense to me.
Incoming story about how rare the BLRO and Daytona are...
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Old 7 December 2018, 07:17 AM   #70
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Incoming story about how rare the BLRO and Daytona are...
Daytona is in a league of its own, an outlier, considering how long that watch has been in demand.
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Old 7 December 2018, 07:23 AM   #71
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Rolex will only suffer if the finance companies remove 0% offers. People who historically couldn’t afford Rolex can now get their hands on them because they get the watch on credit. It would be interesting to see how many watches have been purchased on credit...
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Old 7 December 2018, 07:26 AM   #72
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Rolex will only suffer if the finance companies remove 0% offers. People who historically couldn’t afford Rolex can now get their hands on them because they get the watch on credit. It would be interesting to see how many watches have been purchased on credit...
Great point, that would be interesting.
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Old 7 December 2018, 07:58 AM   #73
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a watch is a watch
a phone is a phone
a clock is in your car, but its a car first

i remember when red led digital was going to put the analogue watch out of business

i know loads of young people with mutiple swatch and timex and several phones, its all one big time festival.

trust me, the watch will never die, high end or low end.
I mean you're right, but also wrong.

The watch we wear on our wrist now, the mechanical timepiece its days are limited.

Eventually we will all be wearing smart watches like it or not, they will become how common place a mobile / cell phone is now. They will evolve over time and become essential.

They currently can track heart beats, but who says we won't get sensors in our bodies that relay straight to our phones or watches. What if the watch sensors become so advanced that not wearing one is a disadvantage to life?
They currently can pay bills? What else will they do? Will they unlock our doors at home? Will they relay our ID's to police officers / officials if requested. Will they eliminate the wallet?

It might sound far fetched but I can see that having a small device on your wrist that has all your daily essentials as a must have... what about if its ultra thin and spans your entire underside of your wrist. Wouldn't that be fantastic?
Don't be so sure these watches will be around forever... I can assure you they won't.

People said the same about mobile phones that they weren't necessary or needed. Sometimes people are not the best judge of what they want or need. Now everyone carries a mobile computer with them wherever they go and thats considered the norm. It's abnormal to not have a phone now.

So times change, and mechanical watches will eventually die out as our technology increases.

Will they always be around? Sure... in the same way that we have collectors for vintage / antiques as we do now.

Times change and we as humans will adapt to this change, despite not liking it initially.
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Old 7 December 2018, 08:10 AM   #74
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Bingo! You're exactly who Rolex is catering to in the future.

No need for a watch as a functional timepiece, got to a certain age, have the wife, the house, the kids, have that VP title, got a nice bonus, time to reward yourself with a shiny piece of jewelry, a status symbol that impresses the boardroom crowd and makes you feel good too.

Rolex isn't concerning itself with the 27 year old junior executive or his budget woes and they aren't starving for every last dollar that crawls into a mom-and-pop AD. The survival of Rolex depends upon making my "who-needs-a-wristwatch?" 20 year old son yearn for one of their timepieces when he turns 42.

I bought my first Rolex piece in 1998, a Coke 16710 that cost me $ 3500 bcak then 20 years ago and I was 37 years old back then. I right now live fairly well off but I make less than six figures a year and don´t rely on the stock market as my wealth. My other business is not doing great, probably about as bad as a strong market downturn for the rest of the world. I own a total of four Rolex watches acquired during the years and don´t see them going on a sell for needed funds, or so I hope.
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Old 7 December 2018, 08:19 AM   #75
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I mean you're right, but also wrong.

The watch we wear on our wrist now, the mechanical timepiece its days are limited.

Eventually we will all be wearing smart watches like it or not, they will become how common place a mobile / cell phone is now. They will evolve over time and become essential.

They currently can track heart beats, but who says we won't get sensors in our bodies that relay straight to our phones or watches. What if the watch sensors become so advanced that not wearing one is a disadvantage to life?
They currently can pay bills? What else will they do? Will they unlock our doors at home? Will they relay our ID's to police officers / officials if requested. Will they eliminate the wallet?

It might sound far fetched but I can see that having a small device on your wrist that has all your daily essentials as a must have... what about if its ultra thin and spans your entire underside of your wrist. Wouldn't that be fantastic?
Don't be so sure these watches will be around forever... I can assure you they won't.

People said the same about mobile phones that they weren't necessary or needed. Sometimes people are not the best judge of what they want or need. Now everyone carries a mobile computer with them wherever they go and thats considered the norm. It's abnormal to not have a phone now.

So times change, and mechanical watches will eventually die out as our technology increases.

Will they always be around? Sure... in the same way that we have collectors for vintage / antiques as we do now.

Times change and we as humans will adapt to this change, despite not liking it initially.

'sometimes people are not the best judge of what they want or need'

sounds like what these comm** remain*** are peddling, day in and day out,



people are tiring of technology, cars being the perfect example, a car today is not as good as 20 years ago, they end up scrapped because some unecessary light comes on the dashboard and it fails its mot, they are essentially an unecessary computer that has been over thought, a total nuisance.


a watch will be here in 100 years time, as popular as ever.

Some people dont want their watch to read their heartbeat, they just want to know if it's time for a pint.
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Old 7 December 2018, 08:20 AM   #76
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Just walk down Main st in any town or city in the US..you will see loads of empty storefronts for rent..except perhaps..in the most touristy of places..
They say the economy is doing great..but thats just fake news..ie..selling a sugar sweet fantasy to the mass public for votes..
GM and Ford know better..they are getting ready for the big fall..eliminating thousands of jobs..and closing plants..
They say they are just trimming..but that's code for..we see whats coming here..and we don't like it..
Get ready..
And in regards to Rolex..they are not done yet..and maybe never will be..
But it seems that there will be changes coming..and expensive wristwatches driven mostly by an ego purchase..well..that cant last forever in this current bubble format..sorry...
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Old 7 December 2018, 08:28 AM   #77
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'sometimes people are not the best judge of what they want or need'

sounds like what these comm** remain*** are peddling, day in and day out,



people are tiring of technology, cars being the perfect example, a car today is not as good as 20 years ago, they end up scrapped because some unecessary light comes on the dashboard and it fails its mot, they are essentially an unecessary computer that has been over thought, a total nuisance.


a watch will be here in 100 years time, as popular as ever.

Some people dont want their watch to read their heartbeat, they just want to know if it's time for a pint.

Your point of view is old, in both age and thought process. Your last sentence confirms this "time for a pint". I'm afraid that most pubs are closing down. Because most people now, do not want to know if its "time for a pint". More people visit pubs now for their food and culinary delights. Hence the massive increase of "gastro" pubs.

You just don't want to adapt to it. But that's fine, that is your choice. But do not pretend or preach that it is the majority. It is not. It may have once been that way. But I can assure you that it is no longer the case.


Who are these 'people' that you're talking about that are sick of technology?

Majority of people are very happy with technology and it's only the population above the age of late 40's that appear to be struggling or prefer the old methods.

But that's normal... it's not surprising. People fear change, and they fear what they do not understand. You seem to be a very good example.

Furthermore, congratulations for moving the conversation onto Brexit...Complete unnecessary. But I am impressed at your conviction and strengthening my point.
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Old 7 December 2018, 08:33 AM   #78
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With the inevitable economic downturn approaching, I’m curious how this will impact Rolex and the current “wait lists”. I’m guessing in a year or two the tide will turn and ADs will no longer have the upper hand with customers. They will be calling customers begging for Rolex business. I understand the Rolex business hasn’t been hit hard by previous economic downturns but the current market can’t sustain this demand indefinitely.
Downturns don't hit rich people, so nothing will happen. Apologies if this point has already been made.
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Old 7 December 2018, 08:53 AM   #79
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Downturns don't hit rich people, so nothing will happen. Apologies if this point has already been made.
That's kind of what I've been saying. The market and investments really aren't accessible to the middle class as they have been in the past which is why I don't think there will be this incredible drop in Rolex purchases if the market takes a dive. The rich will stay rich. The majority of people in the US can barely afford a safety net for a rainy day (insurance, 6 months expenses, etc). People aren't answering a wanted ad for their dream job. Most people aren't owning homes in their 20s.
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Old 7 December 2018, 08:56 AM   #80
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Your point of view is old, in both age and thought process. Your last sentence confirms this "time for a pint". I'm afraid that most pubs are closing down. Because most people now, do not want to know if its "time for a pint". More people visit pubs now for their food and culinary delights. Hence the massive increase of "gastro" pubs.

You just don't want to adapt to it. But that's fine, that is your choice. But do not pretend or preach that it is the majority. It is not. It may have once been that way. But I can assure you that it is no longer the case.


Who are these 'people' that you're talking about that are sick of technology?

Majority of people are very happy with technology and it's only the population above the age of late 40's that appear to be struggling or prefer the old methods.

But that's normal... it's not surprising. People fear change, and they fear what they do not understand. You seem to be a very good example.

Furthermore, congratulations for moving the conversation onto Brexit...Complete unnecessary. But I am impressed at your conviction and strengthening my point.


i dont fear change, i just dont buy the lie that all change is progress,

regarding people being sick of 'over technology' just speak to the average car owner and ask them, then ask them about their modern boiler that keeps breaking down, yet they were told to ditch their 25 year old clunker that never stopped working, as the 'new ones are so much better' so much more efficient,

if i feared change i would have voted to **main

have a nice evening


p.s time for a pint or 568ml, this will never die either

p.p.s. i am talking about too much technology, not technology per se.
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Old 7 December 2018, 09:06 AM   #81
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Downturns don't hit rich people, so nothing will happen. Apologies if this point has already been made.
No apologies necessary as it's worth repeating.

The people throwing down five-figures for a sparkly Rolex aren't going to feel the impact if there is a market correction. Of course we'll feel it in our retirement portfolios, but it isn't going to put a dent in our weekend fun money, our hobbies and vacations will continue as always.
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Old 7 December 2018, 09:06 AM   #82
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I believe as long as we have social media, Rolex will not die. They will capitalize on it. The way I see it, and maybe i’m wrong, even in all the economic downs, a Rolex was still a status symbol and Rolex survived. Yes there was discounting, but Rolex knows how to play the game. I feel this forum is not a representation of the real world. We buy Rolex because we appreciate the brand. The rest of the world buys for the status. I can’t tell you how many Rolex owners I’ve met who know nothing about what they are wearing or the history of the brand. “If” there is an economic decline, I think wait lists will go away, but we will not see discounting. I say “if” because a 500 point drop in the dow jones in 2018 isn’t the same as a 500 point drop in 2008.
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Old 7 December 2018, 09:18 AM   #83
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Some of you on this thread are hilarious. It’s remarkable how a 1.5 year run of unprecedented Rolex growth has erased your memory of recent times when you could walk into an AD and try on any watch you’d like (except SS Daytona) and perhaps buy that watch for a discount from a grey dealer. I love Rolex watches just as much as you do, but I’m not naive to think this current trend is forever. I’m having trouble understanding why some of you want to believe the current market for Rolex won’t experience ebbs and flows along with the economy. Ebbs and flows happen to all luxury items. It doesn’t mean I’m implying Rolex will fall off the face of the earth. It just means this type of demand won’t last forever, but of course nobody knows when.
The one thing we learn from history, is that we don't learn from history.
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Old 7 December 2018, 09:20 AM   #84
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That's kind of what I've been saying. The market and investments really aren't accessible to the middle class as they have been in the past which is why I don't think there will be this incredible drop in Rolex purchases if the market takes a dive. The rich will stay rich. The majority of people in the US can barely afford a safety net for a rainy day (insurance, 6 months expenses, etc). People aren't answering a wanted ad for their dream job. Most people aren't owning homes in their 20s.
Wrong. According to your theory historically Rolex would have a constant suppl, but they don’t. 1.5 years ago ADs had 10+ Subc in their stores. Not every rich person owns a Rolex. 99% of rich people don’t care about Rolex watches. The wealthy folks who love watches will of course always be able to buy Rolex. Currently there is a flood of middle to upper middle class people purchasing Rolex watches because currently they can afford the luxury.
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Old 7 December 2018, 09:29 AM   #85
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Wrong. According to your theory historically Rolex would have a constant suppl, but they don’t. 1.5 years ago ADs had 10+ Subc in their stores. Not every rich person owns a Rolex. 99% of rich people don’t care about Rolex watches. The wealthy folks who love watches will of course always be able to buy Rolex. Currently there is a flood of middle to upper middle class people purchasing Rolex watches because currently they can afford the luxury.
There are other factors in play here the past couple of years, like your typical 35 year old Rolex buyer who has been on Facebook and Instagram since he was a teenager, just weened on and programmed to keeping up with the social media Joneses. The workforce being transformed from the old guard to the new who have different values, different purchase priorities, and distinctly competitive online lives.

And the fact that for high-paying jobs in that demo there is a shortage of talent, HR departments are in a crisis of their own trying to find well qualified executives in all manner of disciplines. Most millennials aren't worried about finding a job. They are worried about finding the perfect job, and they take their time to do so.

This isn't a bubble. It's a convergence of factors and a Rolex brand strategy. This thought that a year from now AD's are going to be flush with inventory is nonsense. Rolex has been doing this for 100 years and they are very good at it.
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Old 7 December 2018, 09:31 AM   #86
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All I gotta say is even in the worst of times, there are plenty of people making money. One man's doom is another's opportunity. So I think there will always be a demand when the brand has this kind of prestige globally.
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Old 7 December 2018, 09:37 AM   #87
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I remember almost buying a 116718 for under $15k in 2008 when the downturn hit..... wait for the used market fire sale.


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Old 7 December 2018, 09:46 AM   #88
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Wrong. According to your theory historically Rolex would have a constant suppl, but they don’t. 1.5 years ago ADs had 10+ Subc in their stores. Not every rich person owns a Rolex. 99% of rich people don’t care about Rolex watches. The wealthy folks who love watches will of course always be able to buy Rolex. Currently there is a flood of middle to upper middle class people purchasing Rolex watches because currently they can afford the luxury.
You know none of that for a fact. The middle class shrinking is a fact. Proven many times over. It has been happening for many years now prior to the current "shortage." Neither Rolex nor you knows anything about the tax brackets of the people purchasing their product. No one even knows how many watches Rolex actually makes. We make estimations. This idea that a sizeable portion of people in the US are floating on this economic bubble and that is directly tied to the availability of Rolex watches is tenuous at best. Getting a Rolex watch is only becoming a more difficult endeavor for most and this has been happening for a lot longer than 2 years.

We may need to agree to disagree here.
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Old 7 December 2018, 10:10 AM   #89
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I remember almost buying a 116718 for under $15k in 2008 when the downturn hit..... wait for the used market fire sale.


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I’m content with what I have. I’d love to have a day-date but have been on a tear buying and flipping, so I’m taking a breather.

If the economy continues to flourish, I’m good with what I have.

If the recession hits and the used market fire sale happens, I’ll buy a DD40 on the cheap.

Either way, I’m good.




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Old 7 December 2018, 10:15 AM   #90
alphasports
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Originally Posted by jsausley View Post
What downturn? Are you a market strategist? Do I need to sell all of my equity holdings?

In all seriousness, markets ebb and flow and business/sales is often tied to the market, especially in luxury goods. In 2008 when the market crashed I'm sure Rolex, Louis Vuitton, Ferrari all saw diminishing sales because of the downturn. There's nothing you can do about it. We are currently on a 9 year bull run. Markets are down (slightly) for 2018 but they were up bigly -- to use Trump's terminology -- in 2016 and 2017, so it's too soon to call for a recession. Even if we lose another 10% here we'll still barely be bearish over the 2016-2019 period.

The long and short of it is, buy watches you like, these aren't investment vehicles. If you happen to make some money trading Rolex, great, but don't try to depend/rely on it.
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