Global Econonmy and Rolex

[R!$]

Originally Posted by LuminousMaximus

I don't remember any AD even in the recent past begging for business, but I'm sure there will be a few cans of soda, and a place to sit offered...

they always beg me, but that's the crown collection...

[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by dubins930

People make up numbers about production, make up some Rolex scheme that places the current watch they own as the only thing not affected in economic downturn. People think the price of grey market watches are sustainable for decades to come because they paid x amount... guess who paid Msrp at the AD... they guy who just took you for 9k. Someone even put a list of brands that “we should worry about” during hard economic times... but not Rolex because of some mystery product reduction strategy that he made up. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills! Rolex madness

Couldn’t agree more

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by dubins930

People make up numbers about production, make up some Rolex scheme that places the current watch they own as the only thing not affected in economic downturn. People think the price of grey market watches are sustainable for decades to come because they paid x amount... guess who paid Msrp at the AD... they guy who just took you for 9k.

No one posted numbers to justify a purchase but rather to illustrate that there are certain Rolex references with far more interested buyers than there are units available. People use convenient phrases like "mass produced" and "1 million watches a year" and don't think through how few units are actually in circulation of a single watch/dial/bezel/bracelet configuration.

The Rolex Daytona, as an example, has had decades-long waiting lists and held its price through multiple growth and recession cycles. Several Rolex Sport vintage references have had a trajectory only upwards through these same fluctuating stock market cycles.

If a Rolex is desirable enough the prices don't go down if the economy goes down. That's historic and that's factual. All this talk of Wall Street and investments and assets and speculation and world economies means nothing.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

No one posted numbers to justify a purchase but rather to illustrate that there are certain Rolex references with far more interested buyers than there are units available. People use convenient phrases like "mass produced" and "1 million watches a year" and don't think through how few units are actually in circulation of a single watch/dial/bezel/bracelet configuration.

The Rolex Daytona, as an example, has had decades-long waiting lists and held its price through multiple growth and recession cycles. Several Rolex Sport vintage references have had a trajectory only upwards through these same fluctuating stock market cycles.

If a Rolex is desirable enough the prices don't go down if the economy goes down. That's historic and that's factual. All this talk of Wall Street and investments and assets and speculation and world economies means nothing.

Clearly you weren’t collecting watches and following Daytona prices in 2008-2009. Talk to Eric Ku about what happened to the value of his 4 digit Daytona inventory during the GFC. Talk to guys on here offered discounts from ADs on 116520s.

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

Clearly you weren’t collecting watches and following Daytona prices in 2008-2009. Talk to Eric Ku about what happened to the value of his 4 digit Daytona inventory during the GFC. Talk to guys on here offered discounts from ADs on 116520s.

I said there were some vintage sport models whose values did not dip, 4-digit Daytona's were not one of them. As for individual AD's offering customers Daytona discounts to generate cashflow, its fortunate for them that it happened but was an anomaly, not the norm. I myself was SS black dial 116620 shopping in that era and reaching out to multiple AD's in NYC metro and Las Vegas at the time and could find no inventory and no AD to take my business, was told I could get on a 10 year waiting list.

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

The Rolex Daytona, as an example, has had decades-long waiting lists and held its price through multiple growth and recession cycles. Several Rolex Sport vintage references have had a trajectory only upwards through these same fluctuating stock market cycles.

If a Rolex is desirable enough the prices don't go down if the economy goes down. That's historic and that's factual. All this talk of Wall Street and investments and assets and speculation and world economies means nothing.

Wow....this is incredibly false.
If you were even close to accurate, every hedge fund in the world would be buying up Rolex watches.

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

Wow....this is incredibly false.
If you were even close to accurate, every hedge fund in the world would be buying up Rolex watches.

Cool, now we’ve got hedge funds buying up BLRO’s by the tens of millions, it’s an economy unto itself.

Rolex only makes a few thousand BLRO’s. So they, not all Rolexes, aren’t affected by any economy slip. Same for 500C’s and a few other desirable references, what’s coming at Basel, etc.

[superpop]

My gawd, its a mass produced watch, not a stock certificate or bond. On second thought, I am leaving now to go see my Edward Jones guy about cashing out my retirement and buying a 1000 or so Rolex watches.

[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

Cool, now we’ve got hedge funds buying up BLRO’s by the tens of millions, it’s an economy unto itself.

Rolex only makes a few thousand BLRO’s. So they, not all Rolexes, aren’t affected by any economy slip. Same for 500C’s and a few other desirable references, what’s coming at Basel, etc.

You’re living in a cloud. They are beautiful watches, period.

[ALF61]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

Wow....this is incredibly false.
If you were even close to accurate, every hedge fund in the world would be buying up Rolex watches.

So you think funds fork out the whole cash amount when buying stocks ?

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

I said there were some vintage sport models whose values did not dip, 4-digit Daytona's were not one of them. As for individual AD's offering customers Daytona discounts to generate cashflow, its fortunate for them that it happened but was an anomaly, not the norm. I myself was SS black dial 116620 shopping in that era and reaching out to multiple AD's in NYC metro and Las Vegas at the time and could find no inventory and no AD to take my business, was told I could get on a 10 year waiting list.

"The Rolex Daytona, as an example, has had decades-long waiting lists and held its price through multiple growth and recession cycles."

As I stated, this is just flat out false.

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

"The Rolex Daytona, as an example, has had decades-long waiting lists and held its price through multiple growth and recession cycles."

As I stated, this is just flat out false.

Not in my experience trying to buy one from an authorized dealer going as far back as 2005.

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by Jean Melkanian

Please stop justifying yourself for paying double the retail price for the BLRO, which is a mass produced watch. They are available everywhere, it's either you pay extra to play the game (driven by god knows what impulse) or you sit it out and wait for the Stainless Steel bubble to burst, or purchase another model which has a less common design (bi-color bezels have been going on for so much time).

1. The wealthy don't have the need to justify a fanciful purchase.
2. The BLRO is not mass produced, quantities are extremely limited.
3. They are not available everywhere, just at a few grey dealers.
4. There is no Rolex bubble, this is the new-norm.
5. Purchasing another model is not an option when you love the BLRO.

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by Jean Melkanian

Quick question, what watches do you have other than the 500c and BLRO? You are free not to answer as it's none of my business after all. If you have these two only, I suspect you might be one of these people who buy the "hot"models only - not sure if it's out of love for the watch or not. But i could be wrong too. And if we follow your logic about the BLRO not being mass produced, then all the other stainless steel models from Rolex are also not mass produced - I see a little flaw in the reasoning, but again i could be wrong too.

Current Rolex lineup:

1016
5513
16610
126334
116500
126710

Rolex flipped:

1601
1603
3372
6605
6494
1008
116264

It's for the love of the watch, trust me.

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by ROLMARINER

There is no Rolex bubble, this is the new-norm.

I'm beginning to think you're a bot, complete with a coding error, vis-à-vis an errant hyphen and a truncated noun: IF bubble THEN new-norm. The expression is "the new normal." I don't know WTF a new-norm is.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

I'm beginning to think you're a bot, complete with a coding error, vis-à-vis an errant hyphen and a truncated noun: IF bubble THEN new-norm. The expression is "the new normal." I don't know WTF a new-norm is.

The bubble has popped. It takes month for this stuff to trickle down.

[ROLMARINER]

Originally Posted by Jean Melkanian

Nice line up

Thanks. I thought you’d appreciate it.

[AdamG]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

Wow....this is incredibly false.
If you were even close to accurate, every hedge fund in the world would be buying up Rolex watches.

When over the past three decades were SS Daytonas dropping in price?

[GBD]

Obviously the economy will boom and bust, and it's been in rebound mode for 10 years, so I'd expect a downturn soon, but I'm not an economist. But I would wait with cash in hand, because although a recession may not hit the wealthy, there are plenty of Rolex owners who aren't your super wealthy types. And plenty of them will unload their luxury goods when things get tight. Just be patient. Things will get soft.

[timedate]

people are overthinking, nobody 'knows' anything about the future economy,

people that 'know' always go quiet when the opposite happens, or change to another view point,

listen to those that dont say too much, but have ample evidence of wisdom.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by Jean Melkanian

the BLRO, which is a mass produced watch. They are available everywhere.

Jeez not this nonsense again. Yeah I can barely walk down the road without wading through all the BLROs clogging up my shoes. They're in every corner shop and every supermarket and every petrol station and every cafe I go to. Starbucks tried to sell me one yesterday. They are literally "everywhere". Good chance one will fall out of my Christmas cracker in a couple of weeks.

[VicLeChic]

If or when the next recession hits, MSRPs won't fall. We might be able to negotiate better discounts however.

Secondary market prices for hot models will probably fall off a cliff down to MSRP level or below.

[Roll the Lex]

Originally Posted by GBD

Obviously the economy will boom and bust, and it's been in rebound mode for 10 years, so I'd expect a downturn soon, but I'm not an economist. But I would wait with cash in hand, because although a recession may not hit the wealthy, there are plenty of Rolex owners who aren't your super wealthy types. And plenty of them will unload their luxury goods when things get tight. Just be patient. Things will get soft.

This. 100%.
Luxury items are not bought only by the 1%.

Buying at an AD may not lead to the 15% off like a few years ago. But I bet the secondary market will take a hit. Especially PM.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by AdamG

When over the past three decades were SS Daytonas dropping in price?

I can give at least one specific instance. In 2016 I purchased a Zenith Daytona for $9,000, and at that time the current model 116520 was easily available under msrp

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

I can give at least one specific instance. In 2016 I purchased a Zenith Daytona for $9,000, and at that time the current model 116520 was easily available under msrp

This is 100% true.

Back in '09 SS Daytonas were selling for well under retail.

I remember the AD's still clinging to the limited distribution, hold in the safe mentality from the previous years...

I was offered SS Daytonas countless times from AD's and I scoffed...Why should I pay full retail anymore, those are now under $10K no problem...

18 months ago, the non ceramic Daytona was STILL selling for under it's retail. $10,500 and I could get whatever one I wanted, full set.

Now, it's crazytown..

What does all that mean?

Will it happen again?

[vman]

ROLMARINER is right on many accounts. Welcome to the new world of Rolex and luxury goods. The economy can fold in half, but if Rolex and other luxury brands play the cards right, they'll survive just fine while people will still be paying above MSRP for some luxury goods.

Traditional price vs. demand logic does not apply to Rolex and other Veblen goods. These cash parking lots are social status symbols. If Rolex allows anyone with a bonus to buy its watches, it becomes just another mall brand. You know what guys at Rolex think? I don't, but it probably goes along these lines "No, thank you, want to stay exclusive." So they'll start keeping supplies tight so that people continue wanting watches while time pieces go into _the right_ hands.

If many people can afford a product, the product is not luxury. If the product gets into wrong hands, the brand gets damaged. That's why companies like Burberry burn surplus and Richemont buys watches back. That's why companies who have tried "masstige" are now pulling back from stores that do not have strong brand presence.

Still, there may be small decrease in pre-owned prices if the market shatters. There are some threads on TRF from folks who mention selling their watches to pay for renovations or college for kids.

[Sublovin]

I love how the new people (or people with short memory) act like Rolex is an impenetrable commodity that will absolutely, positively, continue to hold or increase in value. It’s cute!
2 words for you folks....bubble backs. Think those people ever thought the watches would plummet? I’ve got some early 90’s baseball cards to sell all of you...
Look it up.

[Fat_ninja]

So much non sense in this thread. I love it.
From hedge fund guys to rich people. Lol
To blro’s everywhere

I have nothing to contribute to this thread


Im just happy today because i went to walmart and bought an $8 flanel shirt.

[SFBAY]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

I love how the new people (or people with short memory) act like Rolex is an impenetrable commodity that will absolutely, positively, continue to hold or increase in value. It’s cute!
2 words for you folks....bubble backs. Think those people ever thought the watches would plummet? I’ve got some early 90’s baseball cards to sell all of you...
Look it up.

Some think Rolex watches are the most secure and surefire investmemt around! Yet, the folks who purchase let’s say BLROs from Greys for 18k don’t realize they couldn’t resell it themselves for more than 12k.

[vman]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

I love how the new people (or people with short memory) act like Rolex is an impenetrable commodity that will absolutely, positively, continue to hold or increase in value. It’s cute!
2 words for you folks....bubble backs. Think those people ever thought the watches would plummet? I’ve got some early 90’s baseball cards to sell all of you...
Look it up.

Not sure if you addressed the reply to me. If so, please be certain that I am fully aware of market cycles. And if you think that I don't believe that the prices of Rolex watches have an artificial component in them, then we are talking past each other.

High markets float all the boats and there is definite speculation in Rolex. However, you'd be foolish not to believe that a company like Rolex has a marketing strategy. There are two forces at work and soon will see which one is the strongest.

As for me, I'll always hedge my bets. Been selling some Rolex stuff recently at a premium--there are more interesting and undervalued brands out there. At least IMHO.