the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[mgsooner]

I searched and did not locate an existing thread about this, beyond those essentially asking “will this outbreak get me a Daytona quicker?” J/K. Sort of.

Anyway, I figure it’s high time for a thread. This evening’s development:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/whit...-outbreak.html

[Fat_ninja]

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=721721

No there isn’t a thread on this buddy

[Fat_ninja]

John Hopkins has a dashboard updated daily

[BigBlue1]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

John Hopkins has a dashboard updated daily

Interesting

[mgsooner]

Reuters update

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1ZR0CF

[RW16610]

I really hope they're able to up the current efforts and try prevent the spread of this virus. With conformed cases in Canada it opened my eyes. I'm always using lysol wipes, frequently washing my hands, avoid touching my face, etc anyway.

[Ichiran]

The number of infected people has gone up exponentially over the past few days. Here is a graph showing comparison between Wuhan virus and SARS.
ggVLpmQ_d.jpg

I have read a Xinhua report that this virus is transmitted mainly through air droplets, but touching can also spread the virus.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/202..._138739435.htm

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

The number of infected people has gone up exponentially over the past few days. Here is a graph showing comparison between Wuhan virus and SARS.
Attachment 1105392

I have read a Xinhua report that this virus is transmitted mainly through air droplets, but touching can also spread the virus.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/202..._138739435.htm

It’s accellerating

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

It’s accellerating

Yep, the yellow vertical line is disturbing. I wish all those infected people speedy recovery.

[locutus49]

I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

It’s accellerating

[Bigblu10]

Originally Posted by locutus49

I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol

Aren't you overreacting just a little bit? US residents are urged to carry on their daily life activities and not be concerned. There are only a handful of cases so far and the CDC is on top of it. There are no deaths in the US.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by locutus49

I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol

Oy vey gavalt

hashem wills it

[Jim Smyth]

Yowza.......................https://www.dailywire.com/news/thous...ign=benshapiro

[singe89]

Originally Posted by locutus49

I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol

every time I go back to Irvine I feel the same way and that happens to be where the reported case is.

[Knappo 1307]

Am I the only one not worried??

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307

Am I the only one not worried??

Easy to say from the USA. Put yourself in their shoes.

[daOnlyBG]

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307

Am I the only one not worried??

I am not.

People call the spread of the coronavirus "exponential," and there's just so, so much wrong with that (simply because something is non-linear doesn't make it exponential).

Refer back to the SARS spread figure from earlier in the thread and compare the shape of that curve to this one.

Also, people fail to take into consideration the coronavirus' mortality rate and how it compares with... you know, the general flu.

[Burnettwatches]

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307

Am I the only one not worried??

you're not alone bud

[padi56]

Originally Posted by Knappo 1307

Am I the only one not worried??

Have to agree although this Coronavirus is a serous problem lets get things into perspective.Around 291,000 to as many as 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each and every year.

[Arcticsub]

Originally Posted by padi56

Have to agree although this Coronavirus is a serous problem lets get things into perspective.Around 291,000 to as many as 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each and every year.

Personally, what's worrying me is the fact that seasonal flu has a mortality rate of around 0.1%. Right now Wuhan virus' mortality rate is around 2-3%. That difference, together with it spreading like wildfire, is huge.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by padi56

Have to agree although this Coronavirus is a serous problem lets get things into perspective.Around 291,000 to as many as 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each and every year.

Some people love to panic

[Spartacus]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Some people love to panic

Really? The Chinese Government loves to panic?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Spartacus

Really? The Chinese Government loves to panic?

Check the chart, look at the facts. IMHO China is playing catch up and is far more embarrassed than scared.

[GoingPlaces]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Some people love to panic

Still need to consider the mortality rate is 2-3x influenza. So if the same amount of people contract this, the mortality numbers will swell beyond influenza fatalities. Most of these would likely be in China and lesser developed countries.

Still too early to determine if there is panic or not. This thing needs to peak out before that assessment can accurately be made.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Some people love to panic

We can’t compare this to the flu anymore. Mortality rate is more than 3X and it’s more contagious. Wuhan Coronavirus can now spread three different ways, air, fecal and surface (up to 5 days.) All qualified.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

We can’t compare this to the flu anymore. Mortality rate is more than 3X and it’s more contagious. Wuhan Coronavirus can now spread three different ways, air, fecal and surface (up to 5 days.) All qualified.

The Novel Coronavirus will likely transmit as many viral pathogens do - using a host cell from every possible source.

I’d like to mention that the increasing rate of cases is accelerating much faster than the rate of deaths.

We will see the lethality shrink as we get control over the mortality despite sharp increases in cases.

Can’t really rely on only 17,000 cases as a denominator to yield a forward-looking mortality rate. Note that the other comparable outbreaks have millions of cases over a years time

When we have a year’s worth of Novel CV data I believe the observed mortality will be closer to the flu than SARS or MERS.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Koolpep]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

We can’t compare this to the flu anymore. Mortality rate is more than 3X and it’s more contagious. Wuhan Coronavirus can now spread three different ways, air, fecal and surface (up to 5 days.) All qualified.

Surface? 5 days? Where did you get that from? Any source? Really want to know.

CDC says:

It’s currently unclear if a person can get 2019-nCoV by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes.

And the virus is supposed to only survive outside of the body a few minutes to hours but not days.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by padi56

Have to agree although this Coronavirus is a serous problem lets get things into perspective.Around 291,000 to as many as 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each and every year.

For us worrywarts .... this is the post you need to remember the most. In the U.S. alone, about 60,000 people die every year from the flu, and many of us don't even get the vaccine!

Good to be cautious and careful, of course, but people, can we please stop the panic!? The hype and fear-mongering are out of control.

[envuks]

Originally Posted by swish77

For us worrywarts .... this is the post you need to remember the most. In the U.S. alone, about 60,000 people die every year from the flu, and many of us don't even get the vaccine!

Good to be cautious and careful, of course, but people, can we please stop the panic!? The hype and fear-mongering are out of control.

The flu kills about 14 people per 100,000 cases in the US.

With a ~3.5% mortality rate, coronavirus would be ~3,500 deaths per 100,000 cases

I was talking about this with friends last night. Those rates are vastly different and our experience will be nothing like the flu. I’m 37 and lucky enough to not know anyone who’s died from the flu. The 2 friends I was talking to last night also didn’t know anyone who died from the flu. You also can’t catch the same strain of the flu more than once.

I believe our experience to be different with this when corona really hits due to the rates and fact a person can get it more than once. I hypothesize that we'll all know someone who dies from this before it’s all said and done

The US is basically dong nothing for prevention

Don’t panic, but it’s very possible that we experience a societal paradigm shift once this really gets going

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by envuks

The flu kills about 14 people per 100,000 cases in the US.



With a ~3.5% mortality rate, coronavirus would be ~3,500 deaths per 100,000 cases



I was talking about this with friends last night. Those rates are vastly different and our experience will be nothing like the flu. I’m 37 and lucky enough to not know anyone who’s died from the flu. The 2 friends I was talking to last night also didn’t know anyone who died from the flu. You also can’t catch the same strain of the flu more than once.



I believe our experience to be different with this when corona really hits due to the rates and fact a person can get it more than once. I hypothesize that we'll all know someone who dies from this before it’s all said and done



The US is basically dong nothing for prevention



Don’t panic, but it’s very possible that we experience a societal paradigm shift once this really gets going

Well put. A lot of these too cool to care posts will not age well.