the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[Speedbird-1]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Yes, my 86 year old mother, and she(we) are taking reasonable precautions; the hand washing, the sanitizer, the avoiding gatherings etc. But I just came out of a supermarket, went in there to buy a newspaper. The scene was absolute chaos, hoarding, fighting over articles, general panic; it’s a testament to the stupidity of the human race. When brain-eating Zombies start walking around I’ll get concerned.

I hear what you are saying my friend, these situations bring out the best and the worst of us.
Glad to hear you're adopting all the recomended precautions.
My 90 year old mother in law is creating a minor ruckus, 'cause we've told her not to drive to the hair salon every week, 'till this thing passes.
That generation are a breed apart, trouble is she thinks she's acheived 90 summers and that makes her immortal.
Still driving at 90+...I swear she did a handbrake turn into our drive the other day. What a girl!
Stay safe buddy.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Lt Virgil Hilts

You were saying?

Really!! Really??!!?

Sigh.

[gmh1013]

On a local news station they said the CDC was watching Houston because its the 4th largest city and being very hot and humid to see if the weather does play into the spreading of the virus....and today its very hot and humid and Houston has "only" 18 cases most were from a trip to Egypt and traced back to 5 people. If its true I hope for the hottest and most humid spring in history. Greater Houston Area has 28 cases.

[Zakalwe]

The following is quoted verbatim from a SM post by Dr Stephen Burgess, who is an epidemiologist in the U.K. and is his interpretation and explanation of the thinking that lies behind the much criticised response of the U.K. government. I leave it here without further comment. Some may find it of interest.

Bottom line up front: As an epidemiologist, I support the UK government's response to the coronavirus outbreak as proportionate, measured, targeted, nuanced, and sustainable. It is science-led, and I believe that the current choice of action is best for protecting the country.

---

Have read a lot of people writing – "I'm not an epidemiologist, but...". Well, I am an epidemiologist, so while infectious diseases aren't usually my thing, I do have a professional opinion on the current situation, and it is an informed one, so thought I'd share it.

An epidemic is like a forest fire. We are the trees, and the disease is the fire. The initial response is to find the trees on fire and try to isolate them – to create fire-breaks, and hope that the fire dies out. Despite the best efforts of the countries where the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) first broke out, this stage has past – there are far too many infections in the population to isolate the virus. We have to face the reality that a substantial portion of the UK population will encounter the virus.

We are now in the holding phase – there are small fires going on, and we are trying to manage them. With the 1918 Spanish flu, while the peak of the outbreak has long passed, the virus never fully went away – it is still burning to this day. Several strains of modern flu are descended from that century-old virus mutation. The ideal future situation is that this novel virus strain (COVID-19) becomes something that we treat similarly to other viruses that cause colds and flu – we take precautions against it, it makes us sick, and occasionally it is serious or even fatal, but it doesn’t drastically change how we live our lives. The end goal with the current outbreak is to get to that stage in a way that is slow, controlled, and not geographically isolated – so as not to put too much strain on the health service at any one time. The worst case scenario is what we see in Northen Italy – a fierce localized blazing fire. But having no burn at all means that the whole population is susceptible – the forest is a tinderbox waiting to ignite. We want a slow burn.

Here are four reasons for not taking more drastic action at the moment: waiting for the peak, ensuring the action is effective, avoiding unintended consequences, and the impact of action on society.

First, we are not close to the peak of the outbreak. Imagine that you are holding a "Close schools for a week" card, which reduces the infection rate by 20% for that week. If you play that card now for one week, you will delay the outbreak by a few days. But the peak of the outbreak will be unchanged – it'll be a few days later, but it'll be just as peaky. The correct time to play the card is a couple of weeks before the peak – not to stretch out the low-risk period, but to stretch out the critical period.

Secondly, if you play too many "Close schools for a week" cards, they will become less effective. It's reasonable to ask people to stay at home for a few days. It's not reasonable to ask people to stay at home indefinitely. If you close schools for several weeks, you won't get a sustained 20% reduction in infection rate – and so you won’t get as much of a reduction when you need it.

Thirdly, if you play the "Close schools for a week" card, what happens instead? Where do the children go? What consequences could result from such a decision? Again, it’s a reasonable request to ask parents to keep children isolated for a week or so. But if there is a long disruption, it could mean children end up spending more time with grandparents, who are more vulnerable to infection. It would likely result in the virus spreading more unpredictably and maybe even more quickly.

Fourthly, drastic action is disruptive. While "health takes priority over wealth" is a reasonable statement when the choice is whether to miss a week's wages versus exposing yourself to a high risk of serious illness (although for some people, even losing a week's wages would be a major set-back). But when the choice means that people go bankrupt and businesses fail, we have to think more carefully. Financial security has a major impact on personal well-being as well as on health itself. To say that the economy shouldn't be a factor in decision-making is naive and shortsighted.

By not taking drastic action at the moment, it means the government has some control over the speed of the fire. There will likely be a future day when schools will close, but we want that decision to be made when it would have the most impact in slowing the spread of the virus – too soon would mean that the action is less effective, and could lead to unintended consequences.

The situation is complicated, and it is constantly evolving. As the number of infections rises, we will need to slow the spread of the virus. But for now, keeping proper hygiene and isolating those who are infectious as well as those who are vulnerable means that the burn will mostly be in healthy individuals – this is the safest way to proceed for everyone. Personally, at the moment, I'm not travelling internationally, but I'm not socially isolating either – I am trying to avoid large crowds, but I am still attending work and social gatherings. The current government advice is reasonable and sustainable for the current situation – until this changes, this is what I am being guided by.

[AS1]

Originally Posted by gmh1013

On a local news station they said the CDC was watching Houston because its the 4th largest city and being very hot and humid to see if the weather does play into the spreading of the virus....and today its very hot and humid and Houston has "only" 18 cases most were from a trip to Egypt and traced back to 5 people. If its true I hope for the hottest and most humid spring in history. Greater Houston Area has 28 cases.

good info - thanks for sharing and will now be following Houston with more interest.

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

The following is quoted verbatim from a SM post by Dr Stephen Burgess, who is an epidemiologist in the U.K. and is his interpretation and explanation of the thinking that lies behind the much criticised response of the U.K. government. I leave it here without further comment. Some may find it of interest.

Thank you for posting that, well written and explained.

My concern is that those self isolating now as they may be infected will have to isolate again if we go on lockdown as we don’t definitively know they had the virus.

I’m also hearing lots of reports of it’s like having a cold which doesn’t fit the fever or continual cough narrative for isolation. Confusing

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[Moggo]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

There are currently two ER docs in critical condition with the virus in the US after treating patients, one being a previously-healthy 40 year-old. This is serious.

That really is worrying


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[Speedbird-1]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

The following is quoted verbatim from a SM post by Dr Stephen Burgess, who is an epidemiologist in the U.K. and is his interpretation and explanation of the thinking that lies behind the much criticised response of the U.K. government. I leave it here without further comment. Some may find it of interest.

Thanks Sal.
Very Interesting.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Moggo

Thank you for posting that, well written and explained.

My concern is that those self isolating now as they may be infected will have to isolate again if we go on lockdown as we don’t definitively know they had the virus.

I’m also hearing lots of reports of it’s like having a cold which doesn’t fit the fever or continual cough narrative for isolation. Confusing

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I may be able to shed some light on that personally in a week or so from now.

In a reply to you several pages back, I stated that there was no private testing in the U.K. I was wrong, there is and I’ve ordered a test for myself. It’s kind of academic as by the time I get the result I’ll be back at work and (I assume) back to normal, but I’m both professionally and personally curious.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by Lt Virgil Hilts

I hear what you are saying my friend, these situations bring out the best and the worst of us.
Glad to hear you're adopting all the recomended precautions.
My 90 year old mother in law is creating a minor ruckus, 'cause we've told her not to drive to the hair salon every week, 'till this thing passes.
That generation are a breed apart, trouble is she thinks she's acheived 90 summers and that makes her immortal.
Still driving at 90+...I swear she did a handbrake turn into our drive the other day. What a girl!
Stay safe buddy.

Oh dude... my mom is exactly the same! She volunteers at the fricken HOSPITAL for GODs sake!!!! Mom! That is where SICK people go!!!! Can’t convince her.

[Moggo]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

I may be able to shed some light on that personally in a week or so from now.

In a reply to you several pages back, I stated that there was no private testing in the U.K. I was wrong, there is and I’ve ordered a test for myself. It’s kind of academic as by the time I get the result I’ll be back at work and (I assume) back to normal, but I’m both professionally and personally curious.

I have a bit of a cold, runny nose and slightly sore throat but have no idea what to do.

Thank you, best wishes


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[Boothroyd]

I see bars and restaurants in Ohio and Illinois have new restrictions from their governors. Bars are to close, restaurants to be take out only or they must close. Glad I am not on business trip to Chicago right now.

[Speedbird-1]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Oh dude... my mom is exactly the same! She volunteers at the fricken HOSPITAL for GODs sake!!!! Mom! That is where SICK people go!!!! Can’t convince her.

She sounds like a real Gem mate, treasure her.

[emersm]

Originally Posted by Boothroyd

I see bars and restaurants in Ohio and Illinois have new restrictions from their governors. Bars are to close, restaurants to be take out only or they must close. Glad I am not on business trip to Chicago right now.

Yeah, they are to shut down indefinitely.

The Governor also said that he would not be surprised if the schools were shut down for the rest of the year.

I see the whole country shutting down soon, for at least two weeks. I hope not.

Scary times, we live in.

[Deepsea Florida]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

There are currently two ER docs in critical condition with the virus in the US after treating patients, one being a previously-healthy 40 year-old. This is serious.

No way would I go to a doctor or hospital unless I was in distress with my breathing. I actually want to get the virus. I’m 55 very healthy, low blood pressure perfect heart. I get sick all the time because I believe I have a hypersensitive immune system. And hopefully once you get it and recover, you then have some antibodies to protect you to some degree in the future.

I postulate that those doctors in good health that got the virus were overwhelmed with virus.......also it’s possible that for some reason they were more susceptible.

[Justinmg]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

There are currently two ER docs in critical condition with the virus in the US after treating patients, one being a previously-healthy 40 year-old. This is serious.

Scary stuff, where is this information coming from?

[Aquaholic_user]

If temperature plays a role in this I'm moving to india. The dirtiest place in the world will probably be the safest soon.

SM-N960U

[TheVTCGuy]

From seeing all the panic and ridiculous actions of people the last few days... if this is the state of Human Beings then I hope it is the end of the world. We would be better off starting from scratch.

[BLACKHORSE 6]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Let’s see, 2,726 confirmed case in the US, out of 300 million people, I don’t know how many deaths but I believe it is less then 10, so that’s... not very many. I don’t think I will join the ridiculous hoards of panic and start building a shelter.

There’s part of me that agrees with you, but the virus has affected my family directly (everyone is still doing ok, working through the symptoms). I’m hoping that everyone takes this seriously to at least slow the rate of infection.

[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

There are currently two ER docs in critical condition with the virus in the US after treating patients, one being a previously-healthy 40 year-old. This is serious.

Where


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[alphadweller]

This is the theoretical expansion of the virus (based on observations in Italy and Spain). The number of infected doubles every 3 days if not contained. A theoretical projection shows 1 billion people infected in 3 months time on April 30th, followed by 2 billion 3 days after and the whole planet by May 9th.

Don't panick, just take the appropriate precautions not to spread it but to slow it down instead, simply because there is no healthcare system capable of sustaining such a blow. God bless us all.

date             # of infected 
2020-01-31	 1 
2020-02-03	 2 
2020-02-06	 4 
2020-02-09	 8 
2020-02-12	 16 
2020-02-15	 32 
2020-02-18	 64 
2020-02-21	 128 
2020-02-24	 256 
2020-02-27	 512 
2020-03-01	 1.024 
2020-03-04	 2.048 
2020-03-07	 4.096 
2020-03-10	 8.192 
2020-03-13	 16.384 
2020-03-16	 32.768 
2020-03-19	 65.536 
2020-03-22	 131.072 
2020-03-25	 262.144 
2020-03-28	 524.288 
2020-03-31	 1.048.576 
2020-04-03	 2.097.152 
2020-04-06	 4.194.304 
2020-04-09	 8.388.608 
2020-04-12	 16.777.216 
2020-04-15	 33.554.432 
2020-04-18	 67.108.864 
2020-04-21	 134.217.728 
2020-04-24	 268.435.456 
2020-04-27	 536.870.912 
2020-04-30	 1.073.741.824 
2020-05-03	 2.147.483.648 
2020-05-06	 4.294.967.296 
2020-05-09	 8.589.934.592

[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by Deepsea Florida

No way would I go to a doctor or hospital unless I was in distress with my breathing. I actually want to get the virus. I’m 55 very healthy, low blood pressure perfect heart. I get sick all the time because I believe I have a hypersensitive immune system. And hopefully once you get it and recover, you then have some antibodies to protect you to some degree in the future.

I postulate that those doctors in good health that got the virus were overwhelmed with virus.......also it’s possible that for some reason they were more susceptible.

During the flu epidemic of 1918, most fatalities were in young and healthy people. Their strong immune systems reacted strongly to the influenza virus, and young people under 40-50 died of cytokine storm, a complex immune response. It’s not known yet what is happening to the younger victims of coronavirus.

Originally Posted by Justinmg

Scary stuff, where is this information coming from?

I was a fellow of the American College of Emergency Physicians during my career. The information came via email today from them.

[Kowaco]

War of the Worlds, Orson Welles and The Invasion from Mars. Never thought it could happen again, but it is.


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[joeychitwood]

Originally Posted by Kowaco

War of the Worlds, Orson Welles and The Invasion from Mars. Never thought it could happen again, but it is.

Is there any number of cases or deaths that would convince you this is a real problem?

[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by joeychitwood

Is there any number of cases or deaths that would convince you this is a real problem?

Yes “mine”


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[GoingPlaces]

Maybe this has already been discussed - I check in and out, it's a long thread - but what is the difference between this flu and the 2009 flu pandemic. Supposedly there were over 700 million infected (some say over 1billion) and I don't recall the panic being even remotely similar.

[airchitect]

The craziness here is absolutely mind numbing.... yes people are getting sick, and some are dying......but no more than a lot of other things... and because a few people freak out, everyone else has to freak out just to make sure they have something to clean their a*%. Smh

[DLRIDES]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

Maybe this has already been discussed - I check in and out, it's a long thread - but what is the difference between this flu and the 2009 flu pandemic. Supposedly there were over 700 million infected (some say over 1billion) and I don't recall the panic being even remotely similar.

It’s a wasted effort asking. I posted data from from the same and asked the same ........

Most are like a heard of Bison being chased over a cliff ....................

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by GoingPlaces

Maybe this has already been discussed - I check in and out, it's a long thread - but what is the difference between this flu and the 2009 flu pandemic. Supposedly there were over 700 million infected (some say over 1billion) and I don't recall the panic being even remotely similar.

2009 flu, around 1000 million infected and around 300 thousand deaths.

This flu currently has about 170 thousand cases and 6.5 thousand deaths.

There is no comparison, this flu is far worse than the 2009 flu and has the potential to cause millions of deaths.

[watchmework]

Originally Posted by BLACKHORSE 6

There’s part of me that agrees with you, but the virus has affected my family directly (everyone is still doing ok, working through the symptoms). I’m hoping that everyone takes this seriously to at least slow the rate of infection.

Sorry to hear that Dave...hope they are able to make a speedy recovery as many have already proven possible!