The Rolex Forums   The Rolex Watch

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX


Go Back   Rolex Forums - Rolex Watch Forum > Rolex & Tudor Watch Topics > Rolex General Discussion

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 2 September 2021, 07:13 PM   #1
GSolo
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2021
Location: Europe
Posts: 21
Grey dealer prices and paying the premium

Hi everyone

I'm in a situation where I'm trying to build a relationship to my local AD and I'm also on the list for an OP, lately however I've started to take a look at grey dealer prices here where I live and I'm trying to figure out if I should go down that route, pay the premium and just be done with it.

For example one dealer has a 126300 Datejust with blue dial from 2019 listed at $10.200 and a silver dial OP41 listed at $9560.

Now I've seen some debate here and there that it's not "worth" paying the premium for an OP since it's not as well regarded and desired as lets say datejusts and subs.

I guess what I'm trying to figure out is what is the fair value on these watches? It seems that a used 2019 datejust is a "better deal" price wise than going for an new OP41?
GSolo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 September 2021, 07:54 PM   #2
2001jesper
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Real Name: Jesper
Location: Earth
Watch: 116234
Posts: 1,633
Only you can decide whether paying a premium holds value to you vs. playing the waiting game

Would personally wait and get recognised for purchase at the AD. We all know that the OP/ Datejust won't be your last piece
2001jesper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 September 2021, 08:04 PM   #3
rmlovett1
2024 Pledge Member
 
rmlovett1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2015
Real Name: Richard
Location: GA
Watch: YTBD
Posts: 22,326
Time vs money…..I choose time. I’d rather enjoy now.
rmlovett1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 September 2021, 09:17 PM   #4
1William
2024 Pledge Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: North Carolina
Watch: Rolex/Others
Posts: 44,325
It depends on the watch and the premium being charges. How badly do you want the watch and what is the outlook for relief from the manufacturer though increased production or another situation. I have no issue buying through our Trusted Sellers and find them to very professional and straight dealers on watches. The relationship with an AD is based on time and money. If you had the money and was willing to part with it you would already have the watches you want from the Gray Market and we would not have this thread. If you had a long standing relationship with the AD you might qualify for a watch or two but unless you have spent significant amounts, I have and they still don't come through. Or you have another type of relationship, I am neighbors with my AD who is also the owner, and we work out at the same gym at the same time. Maybe it is just me but the demand and supply issues are so strong that it is tough. I would go find the watch you want through a Trusted Seller and negotiate your best price, buy it, enjoy it and move on. Good luck.
1William is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 September 2021, 09:55 PM   #5
Benzsiam
2024 Pledge Member
 
Benzsiam's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: USA
Watch: Rolex/AP/PP/ALS
Posts: 5,905
I think it depends on how many watches that you plan to have in the future. If it’s only one or two, it might be better to get from trusted seller so you can enjoy without waiting. If you plan to collect more, it would be better to get it from the boutique/AD so you build up the good relationship with them for future purchases.
__________________
Rolex: 116621, 126333, 126711CHNR, 114060, 116500LN White, 126660 JC, 126710BLNR, 126710BLRO, 116610LV, 126610LN, 126610LV, 116508 YG Green Dial, 124300 Turquoise, 126719BLRO Meteorite dial, 228235 Olive dial ,126755SARU, 116505 RG Black dial, 326934 Blue Sky D.
Audemars Piguet: 15451ST Blue, 15500OR w/Bracelet, 14790SA, 14790BA, 26022BC(Salmon) Patek Philippe: 5524R, 5712G, ALS: Time Zone 136.032, Cartier: WGSA0030, WSSA0061, YG Oct. 2965, Seiko: SRPA21, MontBlanc: 109996"
Benzsiam is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 September 2021, 10:15 PM   #6
Boaters
2024 Pledge Member
 
Join Date: May 2015
Real Name: Mike
Location: Pacific Northwest
Watch: 116610LV 16710 SD
Posts: 10,649
I always go grey waits are way to long and no AD'S out where I live to speak of.
Boaters is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 September 2021, 10:29 PM   #7
IamJacky
"TRF" Member
 
IamJacky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Kuala Lumpur
Posts: 1,011
Only you can decide what is fair value because we all have different opinions on different models. The market prices simply reflect the popularity of the particular watch as a whole, the more in-demand the higher premium they commend, but at the end of the day, it's how you view and feel about the watch. Not us. I love GMT Master II and less so about the Sky Dweller, and so I have my own "fair" price tag on both pieces and they may not align with the market prices.

Also, as others have mentioned, it's about what your plans are in terms of watch collecting. Do you have a set of few pieces you absolutely want and be done with, or do you plan on exploring and amass a collection of variety of watches the AD in the long run?
__________________
Two-Factor Authentication Enabled
IamJacky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 September 2021, 10:31 PM   #8
GSolo
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2021
Location: Europe
Posts: 21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benzsiam View Post
I think it depends on how many watches that you plan to have in the future. If it’s only one or two, it might be better to get from trusted seller so you can enjoy without waiting. If you plan to collect more, it would be better to get it from the boutique/AD so you build up the good relationship with them for future purchases.
I guess you're right about that, my relationship with the AD is fairly new, but it's slowly building, I've only bought one watch from them previously but I'm planning to add more as we go along. They're also Omega AD so might pickup a Seamaster or Speedmaster but still even if I buy one of those I can't be sure that it will "bump" me up for a Rolex at some point and that's kind of my concern hehe.
GSolo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 September 2021, 10:36 PM   #9
xrole
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: Cuckooclockland
Posts: 455
Quote:
Originally Posted by GSolo View Post
Hi everyone

I'm in a situation where I'm trying to build a relationship to my local AD and I'm also on the list for an OP, lately however I've started to take a look at grey dealer prices here where I live and I'm trying to figure out if I should go down that route, pay the premium and just be done with it.

For example one dealer has a 126300 Datejust with blue dial from 2019 listed at $10.200 and a silver dial OP41 listed at $9560.

Now I've seen some debate here and there that it's not "worth" paying the premium for an OP since it's not as well regarded and desired as lets say datejusts and subs.

I guess what I'm trying to figure out is what is the fair value on these watches? It seems that a used 2019 datejust is a "better deal" price wise than going for an new OP41?
The fair value for those watches is MSRP.
xrole is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2 September 2021, 11:48 PM   #10
Explorer2polar
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: uk
Watch: BLNR , Sub C, Exp
Posts: 456
Hell will freeze over before a spend a penny at the Grey dealers !

The very thought of the original buyer flipping it to a Grey dealer for the sole purpose of making a few ££$$ boils my urine, why should they hijack the market and hold it to ransom ?

No Grey dealers would starve if everyone refused to pay the premium.
Explorer2polar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 12:42 AM   #11
Snerks
"TRF" Member
 
Snerks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by xrole View Post
The fair value for those watches is MSRP.
In what fairytale land is open market value not fair value?

MSRP is a discount right now. Period. Ignoring simple economic principles is quite naive and not doing anyone any favors.
Snerks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 12:45 AM   #12
bp1000
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Midlands, UK
Posts: 4,653
I always wait for my watches. Apart from a very limited few, most come within 2 years.

I have accepted the chances of getting certain pateks just won’t happen for me right now. So I deal with it and get other things.
bp1000 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 12:47 AM   #13
doboy007
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: SD, CA
Watch: BLNR/LVc/SkyD/ND41
Posts: 2,519
Fair value for ME is below MSRP for those pieces (like several years ago from grey) because they are not my favorite watches. But that may be different for YOU. I would just practice patience and wait one from an AD.
doboy007 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 12:48 AM   #14
garyk
2024 Pledge Member
 
garyk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Real Name: Gary
Location: USA
Watch: Daytona
Posts: 11,001
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richris1 View Post
Time vs money…..I choose time. I’d rather enjoy now.
Yes….
__________________
garyk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 01:58 AM   #15
joli160
2024 Pledge Member
 
joli160's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: NL
Watch: Yachtmaster
Posts: 14,279
Money is just that, I can’t see myself begging and kissing up an AD.
I buy grey without silly games
__________________
Day Date 18238, Yachtmaster 16622, Deepsea 116660, Submariner 116619, SkyD 326935, DJ 178271, DJ 69158, Yachtmaster 169622, GMT 116713LN, GMT 126711.
joli160 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 02:22 AM   #16
Stan Cooper
2024 Pledge Member
 
Stan Cooper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2020
Real Name: Stan Cooper
Location: Sonoma County, CA
Watch: GMT-Master II
Posts: 2,680
With the current Rolex AD supply situation, I'd pay the premium and start enjoying my reference of choice now. The premium for grey OPs and DJs isn't as outrageous as with the SS sport models.
__________________
♛16710 GMT-Master II, ♛1915 Rolex WW1 Trench Watch, Zelos Thresher 500m GMT Meteorite, Zelos Swordfish 40 200m Ti Blood Moon Meteorite, Hamilton Pilot Chronograph, Ball Roadmaster Pilot GMT COSC Chronometer, Zelos Mako 300M True GMT Meteorite
It's weird being the same age as old people.

- Stan
Stan Cooper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 02:33 AM   #17
EdwardC
2024 Pledge Member
 
EdwardC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Pacific
Posts: 3,476
Ultimately it's your decision. The 126300 blue dial, especially on oyster bracelet, is a fantastic watch. One of my favorites - however I am not sure if it's $10k+. Given the high tide everything is elevated.
EdwardC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 02:34 AM   #18
WalterW
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: USA
Posts: 279
Quote:
Originally Posted by Explorer2polar View Post
Hell will freeze over before a spend a penny at the Grey dealers !

The very thought of the original buyer flipping it to a Grey dealer for the sole purpose of making a few ££$$ boils my urine, why should they hijack the market and hold it to ransom ?

No Grey dealers would starve if everyone refused to pay the premium.
Did you know Grey dealers also sell many watches under msrp?
WalterW is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 02:35 AM   #19
Snerks
"TRF" Member
 
Snerks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by WalterW View Post
Did you know Grey dealers also sell many watches under msrp?
how dare they
Snerks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 02:46 AM   #20
amphr1
2024 Pledge Member
 
amphr1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2019
Location: El Cerrito, CA
Posts: 2,046
I know in the corvette world, the more a dealer sells historically the more GM allocate inventory to them. Is that the same in Rolex? if so how do I know if the AD that I have a relationship is one of those that will get me a hot watch?
amphr1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 02:46 AM   #21
CoveWatch
"TRF" Member
 
CoveWatch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: SoCal
Watch: Rolex & AP
Posts: 4,535
Buy and enjoy now, lock in the rate. If you get the call later, cool, decide if you want to sell one then. If not, well you've been enjoying the watch ever since anyway.
CoveWatch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 02:53 AM   #22
Etschell
"TRF" Member
 
Etschell's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: FL
Watch: platinum sub
Posts: 15,861
If you always presume you would sell a watch for a loss when you buy it the game is easier to play.
__________________
If you wind it, they will run.

25 or 6 to 4.
Etschell is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 02:55 AM   #23
Mendota
"TRF" Member
 
Mendota's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: MN
Watch: OP36 Blue 3-6-9
Posts: 2,192
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snerks View Post
In what fairytale land is open market value not fair value?

MSRP is a discount right now. Period. Ignoring simple economic principles is quite naive and not doing anyone any favors.
Respectfully, multiple economic principles are at play, however, and what is happening goes far beyond simple and basic introductory econ. You and I didn't learn these dynamics in our basic courses. It wasn't until macro and micro and more specialized courses where we started to deal with some of these unique circumstances, right? Put them all together into a once in a century market event and very few, if any, courses that we took ever discussed this. At least none of mine did for undergrad.

When you have supply chain dynamics that are restricting supply, coupled with unprecedented stimulus money, additionally coupled with pent up demand due to increased discretionary spending because entire economies voluntarily shut down, you have a market anomaly. There is a decoupling of traditional supply and demand and what we are experiencing with the grey channel is a pricing discrepancy due to this unprecedented surge in demand and at the same time an abnormally low supply due to these short term variables. The curves of supply vs demand are both going away from each other exponentially. This is the anomaly. While this market anomaly is playing out, it's an abnormal market as far as asking prices from greys are concerned. We are seeing this in many other sectors, as well, right now. $1,500 slow boat shipping containers from China to Long Beach are well over $10,000 right now. Lead times on basic equipment and raw materials are months long. This is all going to stabilize at some point but until then the greys are going to ask what they want. That's OK. It's up to the consumer to decide if they will pay that, negotiate, or just wait. There is no wrong answer. It's all personal choice. Just like the shipping containers. Some are waiting, and some are biting the bullet and paying $20,000 to have the container expedited to arrive in less than 6 weeks.

Just my opinion.
Mendota is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 03:11 AM   #24
sj24k
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: GMT-07:00
Posts: 895
fair value is what the open market says it is. and market value for Rolex (and AP, and PP, etc.) today is what the grey market says it is. is it fair? to some, yes, to others, no. but to the market, definitely.

like everything else not readily available to the masses at retail, there's an ask and a bid, and somewhere in between is market value. whether anyone wants to pay market value is totally up to them.

no one can determine what fair value is for you. to me, it's totally fair to have to pay a premium to get something i really want, when i want it. sure, i think it sucks that i'd have to pony up 3-4X retail to snag a new aquanaut tomorrow, but i don't think it's unfair, cause, well, that's the fair market value at the moment.
sj24k is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 03:13 AM   #25
Master_Grogu
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2020
Location: Tokyo
Posts: 969
Do you want to use your money (which is the materialization of your time) to help a dude in his business of middleman? I will not give a single cent to a grey.
Master_Grogu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 03:14 AM   #26
JRell
"TRF" Member
 
JRell's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: Pittsburgh
Watch: 126610LN
Posts: 6,484
I predict, and hope, Rolex will flood the market to the ADs when production gets back up. We can then talk about the watches themselves!
__________________
126610LN
JRell is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 03:19 AM   #27
Snerks
"TRF" Member
 
Snerks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mendota View Post
Respectfully, multiple economic principles are at play, however, and what is happening goes far beyond simple and basic introductory econ. You and I didn't learn these dynamics in our basic courses. It wasn't until macro and micro and more specialized courses where we started to deal with some of these unique circumstances, right? Put them all together into a once in a century market event and very few, if any, courses that we took ever discussed this. At least none of mine did for undergrad.

When you have supply chain dynamics that are restricting supply, coupled with unprecedented stimulus money, additionally coupled with pent up demand due to increased discretionary spending because entire economies voluntarily shut down, you have a market anomaly. There is a decoupling of traditional supply and demand and what we are experiencing with the grey channel is a pricing discrepancy due to this unprecedented surge in demand and at the same time an abnormally low supply due to these short term variables. The curves of supply vs demand are both going away from each other exponentially. This is the anomaly. While this market anomaly is playing out, it's an abnormal market as far as asking prices from greys are concerned. We are seeing this in many other sectors, as well, right now. $1,500 slow boat shipping containers from China to Long Beach are well over $10,000 right now. Lead times on basic equipment and raw materials are months long. This is all going to stabilize at some point but until then the greys are going to ask what they want. That's OK. It's up to the consumer to decide if they will pay that, negotiate, or just wait. There is no wrong answer. It's all personal choice. Just like the shipping containers. Some are waiting, and some are biting the bullet and paying $20,000 to have the container expedited to arrive in less than 6 weeks.

Just my opinion.
Absolutely! There is a huge difference between what fair market value is, and your personal choice on what you are willing to pay.
Snerks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 03:20 AM   #28
Mendota
"TRF" Member
 
Mendota's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: MN
Watch: OP36 Blue 3-6-9
Posts: 2,192
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snerks View Post
Absolutely! There is a huge difference between what fair/market value is, and your personal choice on what you are willing to pay.
Completely agree! Interesting times for sure!

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk
Mendota is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 03:22 AM   #29
Snerks
"TRF" Member
 
Snerks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2020
Location: USA
Posts: 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Master_Grogu View Post
Do you want to use your money (which is the materialization of your time) to help a dude in his business of middleman? I will not give a single cent to a grey.
Unfortunately, the gray market is the only available option to pay market value for a Rolex right now.

I would of course rather pay market value from my AD, but that is not an option.
Snerks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 3 September 2021, 03:31 AM   #30
Master_Grogu
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2020
Location: Tokyo
Posts: 969
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snerks View Post
Unfortunately, the gray market is the only available option to pay market value for a Rolex right now.

I would of course rather pay market value from my AD, but that is not an option.
There is a very easy choice: to live and let die. What if you can’t get the watch you want within a year or two. I’ve waited a while for things in my life and throwing money at problems isn’t how I do things.

However I understand you might have a different perspective and spend the premium to get something you really want right now. And honestly I respect you for that too because it’s 100% your choice.
Master_Grogu is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Takuya Watches

Bobs Watches

My Watch LLC

OCWatches

DavidSW Watches

Coronet


*Banners Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.





Copyright ©2004-2024, The Rolex Forums. All Rights Reserved.

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Rolex is a registered trademark of ROLEX USA. The Rolex Forums is not affiliated with ROLEX USA in any way.