What's the chance Rolex, is all Smoke and Mirrors?

[airchitect]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

The only thing I don't understand, well, I don't understand a LOT of things, but let's stick to Rolex watches. I believe the quote about making 800,000 watches a year and having 20 million customers or whatever, but.. a few years ago you could walk in to any AD and buy a sport model (with the exception of the Daytona). Using that as an example, it would seem that a few years ago Rolex produced 800,000 watches and had somewhere in the neighborhood of 800,000 customers. I know that is very rough but you get what I am saying. So, is the TRUTH that in just a few years, Rolex increased the demand for their product 20 FOLD!?!?!?

Ntm in every other business on earth if that happened you’d build at least one new plant to make 1.6MM watches for Pete’s sake


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[zengineer]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

I think the shortage is definitely smoke and mirrors. Greys really messed up the supply chain.

I don't think that really makes sense. Grey sellers are just large scale and somewhat organized flippers. They don't make watches (supply) and they sell at what the public will pay.

If they didn’t exist, many more AD customers would give into the temptation to be a flipper and the market price for a hot watch would be no different than today.

Supply is the number of watches Rolex decides to make, demand is the number and resources of potential buyers. Grey sellers don't change either side of that equation. Frankly, social media including forums like this have more to do with it than grey dealers.

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[airchitect]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Basically, all that newly created currency product has to go somewhere... and then 'trickle' a bit, only a bit, as Velocity is utter rubbish right now.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V

And this makes me wanna park some of my available cash in a new Daytona ASAP


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[Rock]

Just some thoughts:
If ADs didn't get a certain amount of product to sell every year they'd be out of business, wouldn't they? So if there is no product on offer in their stores, it has to be going out the back door, surely?
There has been a huge expansion in the Chinese market for all prestige/luxury goods over the last decade. Given the size of this market it would have to be easily capable of sucking up Rolex's entire production forever, wouldn't it? Then there are other countries with rapidly growing economies and demand for luxury goods. Sth Korea? Indonesia?
Speculators quickly scent products where demand is high and it is possible to make a quick buck, which of course pushes prices up.
There is a lot of money chasing all prestige products right across the world at least since the GFC but probably before this, and the sort of prices being paid for all luxury goods reflects this - i.e. auction prices. Massive 'Quantitative easing' by Central Banks has probably boosted this by increasing the money supply, most of which ends up in the pockets of the rich.
Probably lots more reasons as well why supply is not meeting demand.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Sometimes I think I’m from a different planet..all these internet celebrities that are rich and famous that I’ve never really heard of.

We do indeed live in interesting times.

As a 'tween of 'old school' and math and 'new Internet' with new Math / Core, as was on the Internet since the early 1990 (helped with Heathkit's BBS system in the 1980s). AM NOT surprised at what the internet has evolved into on some fronts, and deeeeeply sadded by others (tracking, major social media companies reducing freedom of speech, etc). Without a doubt there are two very different 'societies' going on right now.

They literally have no idea what to do with the money

Ask yourself, how well has the education system done with teaching investing and central bank currencies versus seeking things of intrinsic value... and proper use of credit / bank loans? Why has the high-school education system in various popular currency scheme countries basically avoided any real learning about the financial system?

[Blansky]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Ask yourself, how well has the education system done with teaching investing and central bank currencies versus seeking things of intrinsic value... and proper use of credit / bank loans? Why has the high-school education system in various popular currency scheme countries basically avoided any real learning about the financial system?

I find it fascinating that a country that basically believes in unregulated capitalism has a population that the vast majority of its citizens have NO basic understand of the stock market, investing, or how to accumulate wealth.

It's rather staggering how the richest, most powerful country for at least the last 70 years has the most poorly educated population of all first world countries. Lots of people have various diplomas but most have no real broad education.

[Mountains]

Originally Posted by Blansky

I find it fascinating that a country that basically believes in unregulated capitalism has a population that the vast majority of its citizens have NO basic understand of the stock market, investing, or how to accumulate wealth.

It's rather staggering how the richest, most powerful country for at least the last 70 years has the most poorly educated population of all first world countries. Lots of people have various diplomas but most have no real broad education.

It’s the disparity in education levels/ educational attainment that I find astonishing. I suspect the US has the greatest disparity amongst the developed nations.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

We do indeed live in interesting times.

As a 'tween of 'old school' and math and 'new Internet' with new Math / Core, as was on the Internet since the early 1990 (helped with Heathkit's BBS system in the 1980s). AM NOT surprised at what the internet has evolved into on some fronts, and deeeeeply sadded by others (tracking, major social media companies reducing freedom of speech, etc). Without a doubt there are two very different 'societies' going on right now.




Ask yourself, how well has the education system done with teaching investing and central bank currencies versus seeking things of intrinsic value... and proper use of credit / bank loans? Why has the high-school education system in various popular currency scheme countries basically avoided any real learning about the financial system?

https://www.radio.com/971theticket/s...FYZ4hGGsKGwF3A

Guess what? There is a Rolex involved in the story linked above.

Get money? Buy Rolex.

Lotta people getting money from all over the place.

That money wants Rolex. Any Rolex at this point. Just get Rolex.

[Maxy]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Someone answer me!!!!!!

Just imagine the impact of Instagram and youtube watch reviewers exploded in last 5 years. Earlier, the purchases and new models were hidden from general public and now even if you are not a customer you'll come across a news article or youtube video about the Rolex Daytona or something similar. Last 5 years have been great.

It makes totally sense... if Rolex is making 800k watches per year, there will be at least 10 million folks waiting to purchase them. 10 million is very small % for almost 8 billion world population like around 0.125 %. This number is still for demand, Rolex production 800k watches for 8 billion population is even smaller negligible.

Sometimes I wonder brands like AP are compared to Rolex. AP Produces 45k watches per year. That is silly with the amount of attention it receives everywhere. I can't imagine if Rolex makes only 100k watches, there will be planned robberies across the world for Rolex watches, Lol!