Talking Stocks 2.0

[enjoythemusic]

Jim Cramer is legendary for stock manipulation and an insider for trading. The SEC has the evidence i sent them, the didn't care.

Trade accordingly.

[macrowatch]

Wow, 11.25% coupon for new SABR debt. And that's not even on the high end of the range for new pricing. Ouch, ouch, ouch. Oh wait, that's not too bad as a debt holder...let's just hope there's not hidden BTC no the balance sheet held by FTX. Low blow, I know.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Wow, 11.25% coupon for new SABR debt. And that's not even on the high end of the range for new pricing. Ouch, ouch, ouch. Oh wait, that's not too bad as a debt holder...let's just hope there's not hidden BTC no the balance sheet held by FTX. Low blow, I know.

It was really quite precarious. They rolled their secured notes from 4.25% to 11.25% for only an upsize of $20M on $500M. Which makes no impact on their ~$300M annual debt. This was 11/21 and obviously SABR took a beating. The VERY next day, CFO files form 4 increasing his SABR position by 91% for a 500k purchase at $4.80 execution price. The very same CFO responsible for restructuring their debt. Manipulation in plain sight, have to wonder what the SEC does all day.

That aside, they will be FCF positive next quarter and running higher margins as they trimmed staff and moved to the cloud during covid. Easy 2-3x from here for anyone who can wait 18-24 months, a gift at $5. Would follow the money here on a CFO insider purchase like that.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by 7sins

If anyone is looking for a contrarian position that is going against current trends, look at puts on UUP. This is a position I am dollar cost averaging into and not financial advice. The dollar is the strongest it has been in over 20 years, this does not mean it can't get slightly stronger but I think we are near a peak top for dollar strength for the next year. When markets eventually stabilize and or the FED stops raising rates while other central banks continue raising, this will cause the dollar to weaken. The very least, like any asset class, there will be mean reversion where the dollar normalizes. There are very few people on this side of the trade looking at the option chains (which maybe is a sign haha) but looking at IV, it is absurdly low, meaning the premiums are very cheap as no one prices this in. Trying to be one step ahead of future trends here.

Thus once consensus changes and the anticipation for the dollar is to weaken, even if the dollar doesn't in actuality, the anticipation will price these premiums higher. 2025 gives you a 1000+ day runway. Something to ponder for those wanting an atypical trade.

Absolutely nailed the top of the dollar on this trade on Oct 8th. Hopefully some of you hopped on this train and made $$$$$ with puts on $uup, dollar has taken a beating the last few weeks, look at those gaps down! 8 point move might not look like much for equity investors but this is massive in FX, typically big moves were 2-3 points precovid - look at the chart before this year, you can see the dollar basket variance is low. I took most of my gains out and will watch closely for re-entry. Easy money on this one.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Absolutely nailed the top of the dollar on this trade on Oct 8th. Hopefully some of you hopped on this train

Good going! I would have, but I didn't understand the trade, and I try to avoid those things that I don't understand. Yes, yes, I realize, that means that I don't do much of anything...

Originally Posted by 7sins

...obviously SABR took a beating. That aside, they will be FCF positive next quarter and running higher margins as they trimmed staff and moved to the cloud during covid. Easy 2-3x from here for anyone who can wait 18-24 months, a gift at $5. Would follow the money here on a CFO insider purchase like that.

Hmmm. Now that I can understand!

I actually worked for Sabre back in 1999 or so. Having an "insider's view" of the company might make one often want to run away screaming, but I can't remember anything that was particularly heinous about the place. Of course, that was 23 years ago, so things may have changed a bit since then.

Positive cash flow is nice, fer sure, but what about some profits?

[youknow23]

tsla has to be a huge buy rn. no underlying changes in the company. FSD wide release = more people buying it over the air = software revenues...new factories tbd. so cheap.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by m j b

Good going! I would have, but I didn't understand the trade, and I try to avoid those things that I don't understand. Yes, yes, I realize, that means that I don't do much of anything...



Hmmm. Now that I can understand!

I actually worked for Sabre back in 1999 or so. Having an "insider's view" of the company might make one often want to run away screaming, but I can't remember anything that was particularly heinous about the place. Of course, that was 23 years ago, so things may have changed a bit since then.

Positive cash flow is nice, fer sure, but what about some profits?

So basically we should have shorted after MJB left the building?

[m j b]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

So basically we should have shorted after MJB left the building?

[m j b]

So, COMS up 31% today. Meme stock, short squeeze, or sucker bet?

[m j b]

Originally Posted by m j b

So, COMS up 31% today. Meme stock, short squeeze, or sucker bet?

Turns out it was the latter, down modestly. Probably not worth the bother to follow.

SABR though, I should have bought (totally forgot about it) after 7's reccy.

[scarlet knight]

Does anyone here buy conventional stocks? Fangs, industrial, pharma, etc.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Does anyone here buy conventional stocks? Fangs, industrial, pharma, etc.

Yes of course

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Does anyone here buy conventional stocks? Fangs, industrial, pharma, etc.

Yes. The last decade (plus) has rewarded you handsomely for doing so

[macrowatch]

So if a Daytona is a zero coupon bond and SABR senior note pays 11.25%...what does that mean the Daytona should trade at....where's my HP calculator from college....Lol.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Does anyone here buy conventional stocks? Fangs, industrial, pharma, etc.

No long term buying of stocks right now. We have more downside ahead, imo.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

We have more downside ahead, imo.

I don't disagree with Bill (Doc) but I'll suggest that buying good, solid, blue chip companies that create a real product (think utility, manufacturing, etc.) and generate dividends, and adding to those positions (DCA) as time goes on, is a good and time-proven methodology.

For those acronym-impaired, DCA=Dollar Cost Averaging

[beshannon]

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

No long term buying of stocks right now. We have more downside ahead, imo.

I agree with this.

I am starting to buy, slowly, in February or March. I realize I cannot time the market. My goal is to simply deploy capital over the the year of 2023 into 2024.

IMHO, this is a rally based on not much at all. And I think the Fed continues to make the same mistakes.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Interesting also to note how some of the EPIC market events look over time… Black Friday etc.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by superdog

I agree with this.

I am starting to buy, slowly, in February or March. I realize I cannot time the market. My goal is to simply deploy capital over the the year of 2023 into 2024.

IMHO, this is a rally based on not much at all. And I think the Fed continues to make the same mistakes.

Brian’s graph above illustrates why time in the market is what really matters.

For what it’s worth, I agree with you, I think there may be more pain ahead.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Brian’s graph above illustrates why time in the market is what really matters.

For what it’s worth, I agree with you, I think there may be more pain ahead.

Brother, I wholeheartedly agree with that chart. And I know it makes sense to just stick with it. I get it.

But I’ve been raising cash a while now. And I simply don’t want to put it in, and watch it tank. And I’m reality, if I’m out of the markets for 6-12 months, it’s really not a big deal in the grand scheme of things.

That all said, I’ve got a plan and I like it. I’m right now still 26% in stocks and I’m making near to 4% on the rest. I’m truly content with that. In fact, I’m happy with it. So I’m still making a couple of bucks if it goes up, but feel far less pain if it goes down…and making 4% on the rest.

For my very individual scenario, this works super.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by superdog

Brother, I wholeheartedly agree with that chart. And I know it makes sense to just stick with it. I get it.

But I’ve been raising cash a while now. And I simply don’t want to put it in, and watch it tank. And I’m reality, if I’m out of the markets for 6-12 months, it’s really not a big deal in the grand scheme of things.

That all said, I’ve got a plan and I like it. I’m right now still 26% in stocks and I’m making near to 4% on the rest. I’m truly content with that. In fact, I’m happy with it. So I’m still making a couple of bucks if it goes up, but feel far less pain if it goes down…and making 4% on the rest.

For my very individual scenario, this works super.

If you are overweight cash, at least roll it in 3 month treasuries, guaranteed 4.31% then you can re-deploy come Q1 as you have planned. Take advantage of the inverted yield curve.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by superdog

Brother, I wholeheartedly agree with that chart. And I know it makes sense to just stick with it. I get it.

But I’ve been raising cash a while now. And I simply don’t want to put it in, and watch it tank. And I’m reality, if I’m out of the markets for 6-12 months, it’s really not a big deal in the grand scheme of things.

That all said, I’ve got a plan and I like it. I’m right now still 26% in stocks and I’m making near to 4% on the rest. I’m truly content with that. In fact, I’m happy with it. So I’m still making a couple of bucks if it goes up, but feel far less pain if it goes down…and making 4% on the rest.

For my very individual scenario, this works super.

If there’s one thing I’ve learned is that there’s no one correct fit. Everyone’s investment goals and experiences are different.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Brian’s graph above illustrates why time in the market is what really matters.

For what it’s worth, I agree with you, I think there may be more pain ahead.

Time in the market is always more important than timing the market.

I just watch a piece on Bloomberg where some "expert" is saying we will go down 25% but in the next 12 months we will be back where we are.

So? I just stay invested and ignore the noise. That has worked for the last 45 years of investing for me.

[austinp]

I stayed fully invested and kept buying on a regular basis. I’m down 11.5%YTD but ahead of the averages. I’m in it for the long term so I’m not too worried about it. Sticking to the plan.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Time in the market is always more important than timing the market.

I just watch a piece on Bloomberg where some "expert" is saying we will go down 25% but in the next 12 months we will be back where we are.

So? I just stay invested and ignore the noise. That has worked for the last 45 years of investing for me.

You’ve been at it about a decade longer than me Brian, but this approach has worked very well for me as well.

I remember well Black Friday. I was new to investing at that time and boy I’ll tell you that was gut wrenching.

My dad (a farmer btw) told me not to do anything just wait it out, and the market will bounce back. Something about keep a steady hand on the plough …. Of course he was right.

This is said not to belittle anyone here for a different approach, we all have different views and different goals.

Me, I’m a simple investor and just sharing my experience

[m j b]

Originally Posted by 7sins

If you are overweight cash, at least roll it in 3 month treasuries, guaranteed 4.31% then you can re-deploy come Q1 as you have planned. Take advantage of the inverted yield curve.

I'm going to start listening better to "B", AKA 7.

So, rather than buying the actual treasuries, can I just buy this and although the yield isn't as good, it's more liquid? SGOV
ISHARES TRUST ISHARES 0 3 MONTH TREASURY BOND ETF

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by brandrea

You’ve been at it about a decade longer than me Brian, but this approach has worked very well for me as well.

I remember well Black Friday. I was new to investing at that time and boy I’ll tell you that was gut wrenching.

I was in my first year as a broker in 1987

[7sins]

Originally Posted by m j b

I'm going to start listening better to "B", AKA 7.

So, rather than buying the actual treasuries, can I just buy this and although the yield isn't as good, it's more liquid? SGOV
ISHARES TRUST ISHARES 0 3 MONTH TREASURY BOND ETF

I would do the complete opposite of what I say

You do not want to buy a ETF as that does not have a maturity, it goes into perpetuity. When buying an individual 3 month treasury, you receive par back at maturity plus your yield. In an ETF, lets say short term rates move higher, that would cause the value of your ETF to decline and could be underwater in 3 months. You can buy through treasury direct or call your broker/trading desk/platform and they can purchase on your behalf.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I would do the complete opposite of what I say

You do not want to buy a ETF as that does not have a maturity, it goes into perpetuity. When buying an individual 3 month treasury, you receive par back at maturity plus your yield. In an ETF, lets say short term rates move higher, that would cause the value of your ETF to decline and could be underwater in 3 months. You can buy through treasury direct or call your broker/trading desk/platform and they can purchase on your behalf.

Thank you! After posting that, I went to the treasury direct site to see how to do it (it's not simple, at least not for me ) but E*Trade will allow me to purchase bonds on the market, so that's the approach I'll take. Even better, because then I can ladder the expirations.