What's the chance Rolex, is all Smoke and Mirrors?

[DonRickles]

As in...... "something intended to disguise or draw attention away from an often embarrassing or unpleasant issue —usually hyphenated when used attributively."

And the reality or unpleasant truth is, they're actually scrambling behind the scenes to get any reference to the market........

This might be a fun thread!

[turkeysub93]

Yup. We are all living in a simulation. The lizard people have accomplished creating their facade.

[Hollie_Rollie]

I think the shortage is definitely smoke and mirrors. Greys really messed up the supply chain.

[Patton250]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

I think the shortage is definitely smoke and mirrors. Greys really messed up the supply chain.

How could supply be smoking mirrors? There was a massive demand due to an incredibly awesome economy. Then a massive decline in production due to Covid. The perfect storm. These facts are right in front of us, not an allusion.

[watchmavan]

Rolex has always been smoke and mirrors. It's part of the attraction.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[cj3209]

Originally Posted by DonRickles

As in...... "something intended to disguise or draw attention away from an often embarrassing or unpleasant issue —usually hyphenated when used attributively."

And the reality or unpleasant truth is, they're actually scrambling behind the scenes to get any reference to the market........

This might be a fun thread!

LOL, at first I thought you meant that the Rolex wearer was trying to draw attention away from a perceived embarrassment...

[Eric-London]

Originally Posted by DonRickles

As in...... "something intended to disguise or draw attention away from an often embarrassing or unpleasant issue —usually hyphenated when used attributively."

And the reality or unpleasant truth is, they're actually scrambling behind the scenes to get any reference to the market........

This might be a fun thread!

Like the Tesla Ponzi scheme. Er no.

[ArtNouveau]

There was a quote here a couple weeks ago that was allegedly off the record from someone in the Rolex hierarchy. “We can make 800,000+ watches a year, unfortunately we have 23 million customers who want them.”
I believe there’s just way more demand than supply.

[Eric-London]

Originally Posted by ArtNouveau

There was a quote here a couple weeks ago that was allegedly off the record from someone in the Rolex hierarchy. “We can make 800,000+ watches a year, unfortunately we have 23 million customers who want them.”
I believe there’s just way more demand than supply.

I think you can probably double that 23m number.

[Eyenigma]

Rolex will continue to be the bellwether watch, until it isn't. Disruption is possible (e.g. Richard Mille) but not probable. I think watch brands are too focused on the watches, and not the brand positioning.

Richard Mille made an amazing timepiece collection *obviously. But it's who he got the pieces on that made the brand what it is. RM was not the first brand to do the tonneau shape. But it's perhaps (now) the most well known.

[Jack T]

Rolex has been making some of the finest, most reliable, durable and desirable watches in the world for 50 years. Right now there are global economic problems, a manufacturing disruption, a supply issue and a distribution problem that seems to be one they can’t quite manage.
But in no way is Rolex just smoke and mirrors.

[DCheeta]

Originally Posted by cj3209

LOL, at first I thought you meant that the Rolex wearer was trying to draw attention away from a perceived embarrassment...

That’s exactly what it is for me. I need to wear a Rolex to distract people from noticing my many embarrassing deficiencies.

[TheVTCGuy]

The only thing I don't understand, well, I don't understand a LOT of things, but let's stick to Rolex watches. I believe the quote about making 800,000 watches a year and having 20 million customers or whatever, but.. a few years ago you could walk in to any AD and buy a sport model (with the exception of the Daytona). Using that as an example, it would seem that a few years ago Rolex produced 800,000 watches and had somewhere in the neighborhood of 800,000 customers. I know that is very rough but you get what I am saying. So, is the TRUTH that in just a few years, Rolex increased the demand for their product 20 FOLD!?!?!?

[shaunylw]

People like what they think they can’t have. If anyone could walk in and buy a Daytona starting today, in a number of years the Daytona would be the new airking. Rolex is hot at the right time and their relatively limited capacity is a huge benefit to the perceived rarity of their product. I think they have a capacity problem due to their demand, and now they have a serious capacity problem due to Covid. Huge win for the brand, not good for the average joe with no AD relationship.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Jack T]

Plausible points, but the average joe doesn’t have $12,000 to spend on a watch, much less a relationship with an authorized dealer.

[jrs146]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

People like what they think they can’t have. If anyone could walk in and buy a Daytona starting today, in a number of years the Daytona would be the new airking. Rolex is hot at the right time and their relatively limited capacity is a huge benefit to the perceived rarity of their product. I think they have a capacity problem due to their demand, and now they have a serious capacity problem due to Covid. Huge win for the brand, not good for the average joe with no AD relationship.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Good luck even finding an air-king these days. Heck my AD can’t even keep two tone or PM models in stock. Everything goes before it even hits the display case.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[csaltphoto]

The thing with Rolex is at the end of the day, it is a very good watch. Rugged, reliable, accurate and so on. This combined with a worldwide service network and relatively simple movement that many watchmakers can do a routine service on. They retain their value as well. It's the thinking persons luxury watch. It lives at the intersection of attainability, value, liquidity and prestige.

Rolex actually delivers on what they promise which is rare these days.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

The only thing I don't understand, well, I don't understand a LOT of things, but let's stick to Rolex watches. I believe the quote about making 800,000 watches a year and having 20 million customers or whatever, but.. a few years ago you could walk in to any AD and buy a sport model (with the exception of the Daytona). Using that as an example, it would seem that a few years ago Rolex produced 800,000 watches and had somewhere in the neighborhood of 800,000 customers. I know that is very rough but you get what I am saying. So, is the TRUTH that in just a few years, Rolex increased the demand for their product 20 FOLD!?!?!?

Someone answer me!!!!!!

[enjoythemusic]

That's why at times i don't wear a Rolex. They expect a Rolex, sure, of course they do, so not wearing one is utterly shocking. Distracting for sure, because then they want to know what is it on my wrist.

[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by jrs146

Good luck even finding an air-king these days. Heck my AD can’t even keep two tone or PM models in stock. Everything goes before it even hits the display case.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

LOL true story. My AD just got a beautiful new store with a huge new Rolex section, it has 4 watches in it last i saw.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[maximus1]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Someone answer me!!!!!!

I also have a hard time believing that demand has increased 20 times. It seems like the true demand might be 1 1/2 to 2 times

[Jeronimo]

Originally Posted by DCheeta

That’s exactly what it is for me. I need to wear a Rolex to distract people from noticing my many embarrassing deficiencies.

I’m with Dave...!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Dirt]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Someone answer me!!!!!!

Your maths and summary are spot on assuming the origin of the figure behind the demand is indeed factual.
But I would say the number of potential customers for certain references may be in the order of 23 per unit with the number tapering off to a 1:1 ratio for the genuine outlier references.
How it got that way for the hottest references is another story.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

So, is the TRUTH that in just a few years, Rolex increased the demand for their product 20 FOLD!?!?!?

Look at M1 money supply for your answer. Cash is now trash, so buy something FAST!

Questions?

Untitled-1.jpg

Untitled-2.jpg

[horseShu]

ADs don't have watches, but grey market sure do have them in plenty.

As others in this forum has repeated several times, there is no supply problem. Greys and flippers have scalped them, and the watches are all selling for premiums in the secondary market.

Seems most people want the watch, not to wear and enjoy, but to sell to dealers and make a quick buck.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Look at M1 money supply for your answer. Cash is now trash, so buy something FAST!

Questions?

Steven,please explain more ..

[fooey]

The demand has got out of control now because people who aren't into watches in any way have heard that on certain models they can double their money!
Some have no desire to even wear the watch!
They just see pound signs and as long as this is the case the problem will grow!

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

[joli160]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Someone answer me!!!!!!

Rolex sure is popular nowadays. Increased demand 20 fold ?
I don’t believe that, the huge numbers of every possible Rolex for sale outside AD’s proofs otherwise.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by fooey

The demand has got out of control now because people who aren't into watches in any way have heard that on certain models they can double their money!
Some have no desire to even wear the watch!
They just see pound signs and as long as this is the case the problem will grow!

What else doubles your money in an instant ?
$10,000 is a lot of money for many many people .

Its a circus at the moment .
Watch 2021 with lower production figures with only 50% staff operating under covid rules .

I have said it before,countless times .To get the balance right ,increase MRSP ...and one day ,as if by magic,we are back at a balance where your Rolex are to be enjoyed,keeps its value extemely well and with time will increase in worth .

[VacherObsessive]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

The only thing I don't understand, well, I don't understand a LOT of things, but let's stick to Rolex watches. I believe the quote about making 800,000 watches a year and having 20 million customers or whatever, but.. a few years ago you could walk in to any AD and buy a sport model (with the exception of the Daytona). Using that as an example, it would seem that a few years ago Rolex produced 800,000 watches and had somewhere in the neighborhood of 800,000 customers. I know that is very rough but you get what I am saying. So, is the TRUTH that in just a few years, Rolex increased the demand for their product 20 FOLD!?!?!?

China, India, to name only 2...