Rolex vs Bitcoin

[Mercury2wo]

Originally Posted by mcorliss

All three (Aphria Inc, Canopy Growth, and Aurora Cannabis) are going to do well, but of those listed, I think the best value right here is Aphria Inc. It is the lowest cost provider in the industry and is already on the way to increasing their total production facility’s capacity to 1,000,000 square feet of indoor greenhouse space that will capable of producing about 100,000 Kg of product/year by mid-2019. They already have 100,000 sq ft operating, and have already funded construction (underway) of the additional 900,000 sq ft of greenhouse space.



Just to emphasize the scope of that:

— 1,000,000 sq ft of greenhouse space is about 25 indoor acres of Cannabis!!!

— They would have 3-4 harvests/year

— They expect to produce 100,000Kg = 220,000 Lbs (110 tons)/year.

— 100,000Kg = 100,000,000 Grams x $8/Gram = $800,000,000+ Revenue

— Aphria’s all-in cost/Gram = $1.61 = $640MM .... A shit load of Net Income.

— $640MM/126MM Shares Outstanding = Approx. $4.75 EPS.

— This week, Aphria Inc. just signed an exclusive on-line MMJ distribution deal through the largest Pharmacy chain in Canada (1,300 stores).

— Medical Marijuana is already federally legal in Canada, but Adult-use Recreational will commence on or before July 1st 2018.

— Aphria also ships Medical Marijuana to pharmacies in Germany, Italy, Australia, Argentina, Mexico, etc...



The stock currently trades at approximately $10.63/share.

If you put a (very conservative considering the staggering growth rate) 20x P/E multiple on that anticipated EPS you are looking at a target price of $85-90/share. It has doubled already since June 2017 and will likely trade up ahead of Adult-use Recreational Use on July 1, 2018.



I am one of many high-level Wall Street execs who have left Wall Street to invest and operate full-time in the Cannabis Industry. The potential is staggering, and unlike bullshit ponzi scheme CryptoCurrencies, the top Cannabis Cos have amazing fundamentals and growth potential.



Constellation brands (maker of Corona, Modelo, Svedka Vodka, Kim Crawford Wines, etc.) was the first multinational to make a major investment ($200MM with warrants to increase to $400MM) in a competitor (Canopy Growth), but that is just the starting point as other major beverage/tobacco/food/candy industry multinationals will follow suit on picking off the top Cannabis Cos with large footprints. Constellation Brands is already up 40% on their investment in about 6 weeks, and they haven’t even started collaborating yet. Once they do, the potential is outstanding. The same is in store for Aphria Inc. and Aurora Cannabis too.



Said another way, I don’t see a better investment from here over the next 12-18 months. BUY, BUY, BUY!!!

Brilliant!!
Thanks man!!

[cardiel]

does anybody think that profits made by individuals from selling bitcoin is driving the rise in vintage watch prices?

[Mercury2wo]

Originally Posted by cardiel

does anybody think that profits made by individuals from selling bitcoin is driving the rise in vintage watch prices?

No I don’t think so.

Bitcoins is not that widespread yet.
Hardly understood at best and misunderstood at its core.
I wouldn’t reckon this has reached the masses yet (not easy to invest via your regular broker) to start influencing other asset prices yet.

[mcorliss]

Originally Posted by Mercury2wo

No I don’t think so.

Bitcoins is not that widespread yet.
Hardly understood at best and misunderstood at its core.
I wouldn’t reckon this has reached the masses yet (not easy to invest via your regular broker) to start influencing other asset prices yet.

I kind of think BitCoin has reached the masses. A friend of a friend who never bought a stock in his life invested in Bitcoin this week. My 18 year old son enjoying his Freshman year at college, opened an account on Coinbase and bought $300 of his allowance money

If that isn’t the shoeshine boy giving stock tips, I don’t know what is. Bitcoin futures will allow institutional (smart) money to finally bet against Bitcoin. Intrinsically it is worth the value of the underlying asset behind it...$0.

30 years of experience on Wall Street, I wouldn’t touch it. Caveat Emptor!

[cardiel]

Originally Posted by Mercury2wo

No I don’t think so.

Bitcoins is not that widespread yet.
Hardly understood at best and misunderstood at its core.
I wouldn’t reckon this has reached the masses yet (not easy to invest via your regular broker) to start influencing other asset prices yet.

bitcoin isn't that widespread - but neither is collecting vintage watches. There must be nerds out there who know about both......

[porschejeff]

Originally Posted by gilestro

So back in June I sold my subC ND because I wanted to get a couple of Bitcoins. Of course straight away they halved in value.

But after today I’m wondering what to do???

Sell and buy 2 Rolexes (or a Patek) . The bubble will burst soon.

[Gaijin]

Originally Posted by mcorliss

All three (Aphria Inc, Canopy Growth, and Aurora Cannabis) are going to do well, but of those listed, I think the best value right here is Aphria Inc. It is the lowest cost provider in the industry and is already on the way to increasing their total production facility’s capacity to 1,000,000 square feet of indoor greenhouse space that will capable of producing about 100,000 Kg of product/year by mid-2019. They already have 100,000 sq ft operating, and have already funded construction (underway) of the additional 900,000 sq ft of greenhouse space.

Just to emphasize the scope of that:
— 1,000,000 sq ft of greenhouse space is about 25 indoor acres of Cannabis!!!
— They would have 3-4 harvests/year
— They expect to produce 100,000Kg = 220,000 Lbs (110 tons)/year.
— 100,000Kg = 100,000,000 Grams x $8/Gram = $800,000,000+ Revenue
— Aphria’s all-in cost/Gram = $1.61 = $640MM .... A shit load of Net Income.
— $640MM/126MM Shares Outstanding = Approx. $4.75 EPS.
— This week, Aphria Inc. just signed an exclusive on-line MMJ distribution deal through the largest Pharmacy chain in Canada (1,300 stores).
— Medical Marijuana is already federally legal in Canada, but Adult-use Recreational will commence on or before July 1st 2018.
— Aphria also ships Medical Marijuana to pharmacies in Germany, Italy, Australia, Argentina, Mexico, etc...

The stock currently trades at approximately $10.63/share.
If you put a (very conservative considering the staggering growth rate) 20x P/E multiple on that anticipated EPS you are looking at a target price of $85-90/share. It has doubled already since June 2017 and will likely trade up ahead of Adult-use Recreational Use on July 1, 2018.

I am one of many high-level Wall Street execs who have left Wall Street to invest and operate full-time in the Cannabis Industry. The potential is staggering, and unlike bullshit ponzi scheme CryptoCurrencies, the top Cannabis Cos have amazing fundamentals and growth potential.

Constellation brands (maker of Corona, Modelo, Svedka Vodka, Kim Crawford Wines, etc.) was the first multinational to make a major investment ($200MM with warrants to increase to $400MM) in a competitor (Canopy Growth), but that is just the starting point as other major beverage/tobacco/food/candy industry multinationals will follow suit on picking off the top Cannabis Cos with large footprints. Constellation Brands is already up 40% on their investment in about 6 weeks, and they haven’t even started collaborating yet. Once they do, the potential is outstanding. The same is in store for Aphria Inc. and Aurora Cannabis too.

Said another way, I don’t see a better investment from here over the next 12-18 months. BUY, BUY, BUY!!!

I have to agree. Marijuana will be the new alcohol and tobacco stocks in their infancy.

[gabrielnovar]

Originally Posted by mcorliss

Only if you sell the BitCoin before it crashes to reality once futures start trading.

right anything is possible but no one would really flat out short via futures.

Its mainly going to be whales hedging their positions to either cash out orderly...or protect a downturn

YES a correction will hit I have experienced a lot.....I tell anyone who dares to dabble.. NEVER BUY ALL AT ONCE

buy 10 bucks a week or day whatever over a year or 2 come back an see whats good.

I dollar cost averaged in the stock market right before the 2008 collapse. Sitting pretty now. so yes you can buy at the very top and make money..I am living proof :D



edit: to those thinking it has reached mass adoption realize a fewt hings

1) yes people now know the name bitcoin 90% still can't explain it
2) most only have less than 1% of port in it (far from a bubble territory)
3)world ownership is only <1% look at home ownership for a bubble
4) Most of the world still doesn't have internet so they can't buy you are having Africa skip traditional systems we went through and catch up via internet. Imagine of them buying into the space....they are barred from our stock market but not crypto

its pretty much like internet in 1995. Most have heard about it...still skeptical....doubt it will change the world...and will remain skeptical (like so do of the internet now after all these years)

[andromeda160]

mcorliss has me thinking about selling off my watch and bullion collection now. Ive always wanted to invest in the cannabis industry, as for BTC, if you didn't buy it already, I feel it's already too late.

[mcorliss]

Originally Posted by andromeda160

mcorliss has me thinking about selling off my watch and bullion collection now. Ive always wanted to invest in the cannabis industry, as for BTC, if you didn't buy it already, I feel it's already too late.

I can give you a thousand reasons why Cannabis is the way to go for the 3-5 years. Among them, TAX REVENUE is “addictive” to municipalities!!!, potential medicinal benefits will be further researched to replace traditional pain killers since there are over 100 beneficial compounds in Cannabis and Hemp, the increasing trend towards reduced illicit drug and alcohol consumption where legal, fast industry employment growth, supporting industry impact, reduced law enforcement budget requirements with decriminalization, less societal impact within urban communities, Etc....

Cannabis and Hemp are increasingly being legalized all around the world, so the early adopters have a massive first mover advantage. Aphria is one of the top 3 largest in Canada already, and owns 37% of Liberty Health Services which operates in Florida and is going through the provisional licensing process in Ohio too. From there, they will move onto other states as well.

Can’t emphasize enough how important that first mover advantage and having significant capitalization is. They have already raised hundreds of millions of dollars for fully-funded capital investments and strategic investments. They will never be able to buy market share any cheaper than right now and they are taking full advantage of those facts.

Their current market cap is about $1.7 billion so far, but should trade up to a $2.5 billion valuation fairly soon, to just be on parity to its near equal size, but much less profitable, peers. The main difference is that Aphria is the only one with 5 consecutive quarters of profitability and is by far the lowest cost provider because of their unique business model.

If you are truly interested in learning about the industry and secular trends, invest 30 minutes to check out this video of the Liberty Health Sciences CEO (again 37% owned by Aphria) as he discusses the potential of Cannabis. Though he is discussing Liberty specifically, the key takeaway is Aphria is the way to participate.

https://youtu.be/uX260WARk4c

[Ku5165]

Originally Posted by mcorliss

I can give you a thousand reasons why Cannabis is the way to go for the 3-5 years. Among them, TAX REVENUE is “addictive” to municipalities!!!, potential medicinal benefits will be further researched to replace traditional pain killers since there are over 100 beneficial compounds in Cannabis and Hemp, the increasing trend towards reduced illicit drug and alcohol consumption where legal, fast industry employment growth, supporting industry impact, reduced law enforcement budget requirements with decriminalization, less societal impact within urban communities, Etc....

Cannabis and Hemp are increasingly being legalized all around the world, so the early adopters have a massive first mover advantage. Aphria is one of the top 3 largest in Canada already, and owns 37% of Liberty Health Services which operates in Florida and is going through the provisional licensing process in Ohio too. From there, they will move onto other states as well.

Can’t emphasize enough how important that first mover advantage and having significant capitalization is. They have already raised hundreds of millions of dollars for fully-funded capital investments and strategic investments. They will never be able to buy market share any cheaper than right now and they are taking full advantage of those facts.

Their current market cap is about $1.7 billion so far, but should trade up to a $2.5 billion valuation fairly soon, to just be on parity to its near equal size, but much less profitable, peers. The main difference is that Aphria is the only one with 5 consecutive quarters of profitability and is by far the lowest cost provider because of their unique business model.

If you are truly interested in learning about the industry and secular trends, invest 30 minutes to check out this video of the Liberty Health Sciences CEO (again 37% owned by Aphria) as he discusses the potential of Cannabis. Though he is discussing Liberty specifically, the key takeaway is Aphria is the way to participate.

https://youtu.be/uX260WARk4c

Thanks for the insights!

[DJRikki]

Ive kept an eye on BTC for the past 7 years but only invested fairly recently and consigned myself to the fact I could go to zero on it.

However I reckon it's got at least a year before either starting to become unusable or a newer varient comes along. Thats from my technical knowledge of the underlying blockchain of bitcoin and its short comings.

Like everyone else Im gutted I didnt throw a few hundred or thousand in back in 2010/11 or at least tried to mine back then when people on regular PCs were getting 10-20 bitcoins easily at a time but I console myself in the fact that along the way when its grown I'd have probably cashed out so would not have gone from $5 to $17,000 without a break.

My advice is kinda what others have said and follows this logic:

- Invest what you can afford to lose, treat it as a super high risk investment or a red or black gamble.
- Stay in the game for a period of time or when a mile stone occurs for you (6 months, 1 year or when it reaches $20k, $25k, $50k etc) or as the followers call HODL.
- Banks are offering horrible interest rates and buying watches isnt really an investment strategy (I dont consider getting my money back or gaining a few $1,000 in a few years an investment) bitcoin offers the chance to make money or lose some.
- No one has missed any boats. I invested £15.7k on the 26th of November this year and just now its worth £27.8k giving me a profit if I was to sell today of £12,500. That could go to £500 profit tomorrow or I could lose it all on Tuesday though. But as it stands I could pull my original investment out and put it in the bank and go and buy a nice brand new steel and gold Daytona.

[dreamcar88]

I get asked everyday if its a good time to buy.. I simply dont know the answer. I bought half a coin at 6800 and sold at 8k. Rebought 8k and sold at 10k. Mind you all of this within a month... I wish i could buy a coin and just forget my password and never look till 10 years from now.. I day trade stocks so its hard for me not to flip things.. I think the demand for coins vs the total amount out will go quite a far distance..

[powerfunk]

Originally Posted by mcorliss

BitCoin is grounded in the bigger fool theory...literally.

Oh, please. If I had a dogecoin for every time I heard "greater fool theory" describing Bitcoin, I'd be rich. You realize bitcoin was around $200 for a long time? Plenty of people, myself included, used it as a currency, and continue to do so, without any expectation of a price explosion. If bitcoin's price keeps climbing, well, then it's a good investment for a while. If its price levels off, then it's a better currency. Bitcoin is not dependent on the expectation of infinite growth/expansion.

Originally Posted by joe100

far more sleek coins like XRP and ETH will take up the market slack...Bitcoin, XRP and ETH are the top 3 cryptos

XRP? Joe, I'm disappointed in you! XRP now #6 and dropping in market cap. I know they brag about already being used by banks, but, what's the point of a cryptocurrency if it's just controlled by some company?

Hodling BTC has always been the best bet imho. People hate on its transaction fees and slowness, but if you have to pay $30 to send a transaction, that means the market is currently valuing BTC as such an important store of value that people are *willing* to pay $30 to move it. I hope some scaleability solutions are found long-term, but in the meantime I think ETH has a lot of room to grow. Along with ARK and XMR. I'd add LTC to that list but looks like it just blew up

Anybody get into cryptokitties? Maybe I'll get one for my wife for Christmas.

[milov]

There are many established members on this forum discussing bitcoin. And I absolutely do not suspect their motives. And I value their opinions.

But the way people are prowling around internet forums enthusiastically promoting bitcoin gets me imagining dodgy troll factories working on creating a hype.

I stress the 'imagining' part. I have nothing at all in which to base my opinion.

[powerfunk]

Originally Posted by powerfunk

XRP? Joe, I'm disappointed in you! XRP now #6 and dropping in market cap. I know they brag about already being used by banks, but, what's the point of a cryptocurrency if it's just controlled by some company?

Annnnnnnnd in the interest of fairness I suppose I should now point out that XRP has tripled in the 3 days since I wrote that comment. Welp, that's why I hold and don't day-trade!

Still not a fan of Ripple, and they get a lot of hype for stuff using the Ripple network that doesn't even use XRP tokens, but...it does seem like new crypto money is flowing towards it massively

[cfoxtrot]

Current BTC HODLer - - promised that as soon as the price per coin doubled the price of my current target watch (GMT-II Pepsi), that I'd sell half of one of my coins and purchase.

Under current trends, I'll be shopping soon.

[cfoxtrot]

Originally Posted by porschejeff

Sell and buy 2 Rolexes (or a Patek) . The bubble will burst soon.

The Bubble is a LONG way off.

Reason: Too many 'experts' are trying to equate this growth to Dot-Com bubble, or TulipMania, but it's not a fair comparison.

For one, take a look at BTC prices in 2013-2014, that was the first 'bubble'. BTC went up to about $1,400 and then remained in the area of $175-$300 for a while. But if a bubble bursts, does it then proceed to ramp up to $17k? That doesn't sound like a 'bubble', then.

For two, TulipMaina... Tulips were not limited to 21,000,000 total Tulips ever available, with planned distribution strategy until the year 2149.

For three, break it down to it's parts - - Technology is Blockchain and the product is Bitcoin (and all the Altcoins as well). In such comparison, Blockchain would be like The Internet. The key Blockchain product is Bitcoin, so let's equate that to an early Google -- a product that utilized and leveraged the benefits of this new technology. The Dot-Com bubble burst because valuations went sky-high for companies that weren't worth anything (similar to a lot of the Altcoins out there), but the over-valued companies crashed (The pets dot com, boo dot com, etoys, webvan, etc...) -- the Technology (Internet, or in the comparative, Blockchain) remained.

In the Dot-Com bubble, the strong survived. There will always be a thinning of the heard, and that's why I'd be cautious about a lot of the Altcoins that are out there, there's nothing unique about them. Uniqueness is like Bitcoin with it's well planned out release strategy, or Ethereum with their Smart Contract, or Monero and DeepOnion with their Security and Anonymity.

But then again, that's just my 0.00000001 Satoshis.

[cfoxtrot]

Originally Posted by powerfunk

Oh, please. If I had a dogecoin for every time I heard "greater fool theory" describing Bitcoin, I'd be rich. You realize bitcoin was around $200 for a long time? Plenty of people, myself included, used it as a currency, and continue to do so, without any expectation of a price explosion. If bitcoin's price keeps climbing, well, then it's a good investment for a while. If its price levels off, then it's a better currency. Bitcoin is not dependent on the expectation of infinite growth/expansion.




XRP? Joe, I'm disappointed in you! XRP now #6 and dropping in market cap. I know they brag about already being used by banks, but, what's the point of a cryptocurrency if it's just controlled by some company?

Hodling BTC has always been the best bet imho. People hate on its transaction fees and slowness, but if you have to pay $30 to send a transaction, that means the market is currently valuing BTC as such an important store of value that people are *willing* to pay $30 to move it. I hope some scaleability solutions are found long-term, but in the meantime I think ETH has a lot of room to grow. Along with ARK and XMR. I'd add LTC to that list but looks like it just blew up

Anybody get into cryptokitties? Maybe I'll get one for my wife for Christmas.

Completely agree, the Hold / HODL strategy is the way to go.

If you're 'investing' in order to make money on the eventual sell-off to USD, well, you're going to get hit with taxes on the gains.

If you never sell, and just use it for what it was intended, as a currency itself, you'll never have to pay that 15-20% to Uncle Sam.

[joe100]

Originally Posted by powerfunk

Oh, please. If I had a dogecoin for every time I heard "greater fool theory" describing Bitcoin, I'd be rich. You realize bitcoin was around $200 for a long time? Plenty of people, myself included, used it as a currency, and continue to do so, without any expectation of a price explosion. If bitcoin's price keeps climbing, well, then it's a good investment for a while. If its price levels off, then it's a better currency. Bitcoin is not dependent on the expectation of infinite growth/expansion.




XRP? Joe, I'm disappointed in you! XRP now #6 and dropping in market cap. I know they brag about already being used by banks, but, what's the point of a cryptocurrency if it's just controlled by some company?

Hodling BTC has always been the best bet imho. People hate on its transaction fees and slowness, but if you have to pay $30 to send a transaction, that means the market is currently valuing BTC as such an important store of value that people are *willing* to pay $30 to move it. I hope some scaleability solutions are found long-term, but in the meantime I think ETH has a lot of room to grow. Along with ARK and XMR. I'd add LTC to that list but looks like it just blew up

Anybody get into cryptokitties? Maybe I'll get one for my wife for Christmas.

Might want to take a peek at what XRP has done in the last 3 days.... God I love being right

[Submariner SS]

I have a crippling fear of investing in something that can lose its value after one of my uncles lost millions playing the stock market. I'm psychologically prepared to accept it if it does increase in value

[powerfunk]

Oh I put my foot in my mouth a few posts ago. Nice call. My dogecoins are doing ok though!

Sent from my SM-J727P using Tapatalk

[Etschell]

yep a huge bubble indeed....

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[bobernet]

From your post, it seems you think comparing the value of a single crypto-currency to that of all publicly traded technology companies combined will yield some useful information.

I’m not sure what that useful information might be.

[bing240sx]

been into BTC, LTC, ETH for just a bit. i like the way you guys are talking about this and that chart is perfect.

[galaxy101]

Originally Posted by joe100

Just to put this into perspective, because I’m sure many folks here don’t understand what is happening:

A $5000 investment in bitcoin in 2010 would be worth $1.03Billion today. That is BILLION with a B.

Wow! Thanks for putting this into perspective. So sad didn't see that coming. I guess not many people did anyway

[gabrielnovar]

As a long time lover of Bitcoin BTC.....

its been corrupted (high fees/long transaction times -hours)

Bitcoin Cash forked and became its replacement.....while BTC has the name it may very well struggle as its nearly impossible to move.


XRP is good because its so quick...you can rip that to any exchange and convert.


Be careful with bitcoin here. Bitcoin Cash seems to be getting a huge push, retail will be left with the bag if whales move to it

[GB-man]

The most disturbing thing to me is that all the news articles on btc seem to come from a handful of websites that just push pump articles all day long full of click bait. Trying to find an educated opinion on it is like looking for a needle in a haystack and when you do find one, it’s night and day from the fluff pieces that are on 24/7.

[powerfunk]

Originally Posted by GB-man

11 all the news articles on btc seem to come from a handful of websites that just push pump articles all day long full of click bait. Trying to find an educated opinion on it is like looking for a needle in a haystack and when you do find one, it’s night and day from the fluff pieces that are on 24/7.

You have a point. And if it's not a fluff piece, it's usually hatery ill-informed mainstream nonsense about which "well-respected" stodgy old rich white man called cryptocurrency a bubble/fraud, or some contrarian hipster blogger thinking he's the first person to compare bitcoin to tulip mania. It is hard to find a balance, mostly because there's such a push to present a stance or prediction because it gets clicks.

I think the more seasoned educated crypto enthusiasts tend to have more subdued opinions, and admit they don't know what the heck is going to happen. And I guess that doesn't translate to blog views.

[bobernet]

Bitcoin was intended to be a substitute to fiat currencies and the current banking / payment systems.

I believe in the idea of crypto currencies at a macro level, but BTC can not fulfill that vision with such wildly fluctuating values.

All these articles are not about how useful BTC is, all the new places you can spend it, how it’s a better payments experience than traditional banks or card networks. This is absolutely a speculative bubble.

When Amazon reports that 5% of their online sales are happening in Bitcoin, maybe then it will be reasonable to think about BTC fulfilling its supposed purpose.