What if the whole situation flips for sports models?

[Acquisition40]

Just a thought:

Would it make more sense for PP, AP, and maybe Rolex (the high command, not ADs) to "allocate/authorize" entry level sports models to first time buyers in order to "be fair" and build long-term brand loyalty?

Whether first time buyers are swept up in the hype of things or are genuinely interested enough to say that a 5167, 5711, AP 15202, etc is in fact the right watch for them, they are at a lower price point, which makes it affordable for those who want to take a step in owning a versatile high-end watch. (And maybe though Calatravas are there, too, but a first time buyer might not be drawn to it for whatever reason.)

Perhaps allowing access to these models could be a great introduction to the brands and maybe a few more might be inclined to go down the rabbit hole?

On the other hand, since many first time watch buyers may buy for "wrong" reasons, however that is defined for them, and end up not enjoying it and selling it later (a phenomenon that happens to even experienced collectors). Also, it can be philosophically difficult to determine who is justified to be allocated a piece as a "first-time buyer".

Wondering what it'd be like if PP says, "Sir/Madam, you already have a 5130R, a 5270G, and a 5167, so it'll be difficult for us to get you a 5712/1A. You'll have to be kind enough to give others the opportunity for now since demand is outpacing supply."

S

[uscmatt99]

Wishful thinking. Not gonna happen. Remember the 5522a release? Allegedly targeting new customers as an entry level piece, collectors salivated, secondary prices skyrocketed, and many went to grey dealers for a hefty profit.

Here's the solution that nobody wants. Flood the AD's with 5711 and 5712 blue dials. That's the only way the average Joe will get one, and many who currently own one will be peeved to put it mildly.

[Pateks]

So what you are saying is give the hottest watches to those who are least loyal to the brand and put repeat customers at the end of the line. Ummmm no.

Listen- it’s not that difficult to get a hot watch. Buy gray market or establish a relationship like many have by developing a buying history.

The only reason people want these steel watches is cause they can’t have them. You could easily get a nautilus less than list a few years back. The cycle will return. The market will go through a downturn and things will change.

But if you are impatient- buy grey or buy a Calatrava to establish that relationship.

[Fat_ninja]

Interesting

[Mr Naultilus]

There's more to life than sports watches , but i would be pissed if a newbie got in front of me for a certain model

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Mr Naultilus

There's more to life than sports watches , but i would be pissed if a newbie got in front of me for a certain model

Give me ur AD’s number

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by uscmatt99

Wishful thinking. Not gonna happen. Remember the 5522a release? Allegedly targeting new customers as an entry level piece, collectors salivated, secondary prices skyrocketed, and many went to grey dealers for a hefty profit.

Here's the solution that nobody wants. Flood the AD's with 5711 and 5712 blue dials. That's the only way the average Joe will get one, and many who currently own one will be peeved to put it mildly.

I say amen to that. Flood flood flood. Ill finally be able to get my 5990, 5712 and 5740.

[GB-man]

That won’t happen period. Patek is trying to nudge big spenders into buying their way into sports pieces and it’s working like a charm.

They would much rather have fat ninja customers than gingerbread men. Makes sense.

[RHIII]

I think it’s too late to change the “mold” at this point. Regardless.

It would be better to be first come first serve that any allocation. But we all know it’s not going to happen - at least until it’s a Boutique only environment...and even then...it will shift

[Moloch]

Way for them to stop flippers and gray market dealers is to have the customer fully pay for the watch but they won't get the watch for a year. Flippers and gray dealers won't tie up their assets when they can make more money in other deals during that year. If all that isn't enough, have every models with waiting list be engraved with initials of names on the list. Engraving won't be optional.

[cascavel]

Nothing would make more sense than to have the market for SS sports watches exactly as it is now. PP, Rolex AP don't make enough to satisfy rapacious demand so customers have to buy watches they don't really want to get the ones they do. Brand loyalty pays dividends. What manufacturer doesn't crave just such a situation? Who would kill that golden egg laying goose? It's only the "one and done" customers who are really complaining.

[thase13]

I honestly don't think we're going to see that kind of spontaneous action from Patek. Patek's marketing behavior has been pretty consistent for the past two decades when they launched their "Generations" marketing campaign.

Their entire company ethos is built around the notion that "You never actually own a Patek Philippe. You merely look after it for the next generation." That long term generational view is more than just manipulative romantic pablum. Patek believes that it's a key differentiator that is hyper-targeted at a very specific customer segment. Patek is not marketing to the baller, rapper, or moneyed hipster. Patek is marketing to the established man or woman who has, over a lifetime of achievement, amassed success and acquired a cultured patina. This man or woman has reached a point in their lives where their outlook is also generational rather than egocentric.

There is nothing in Patek's behavior that indicates that Patek cares about attracting the millennial or responding to current fads or cultural trends, rather Patek screams tradition and seeks to evolve along traditional lines. IMO, Patek didn't seek the notoriety or cultural cache that it now holds, but it can't ignore the fact that it exists and is trying to figure out how to maintain consistent success knowing that all fame is fleeting.

The problem is that people today are wired to want things when they want them. This immediacy and impatience is anathema to a company that requires a week or more to hand set individually selected and matched gems in a case or a dial and where everything has to be just so before it's allowed out the door. For those people, there will always be the secondary market and while those people might own a Patek, they will not be counted among Patek's core customers irrespective of how many secondary market Pateks they own. It's just understood that this is just the cost of being able to have it now.

The Patek customer ostensibly is wooed by the notion of having his or her name in a book alongside Einstein, Lennon & McCartney, JFK, Tolstoy, Marie Curie, Picasso, Patton, Queen Victoria and all of the other intellectual, artistic, political, and financial elites whose names reside in the Patek archives. They love the trappings of being part of the Patek heritage. They buy into the notion of immortality not only as a name in the Patek archives but as a lasting presence on the arm of son, daughter, grandson, or great granddaughter.

Now I'm not saying that that people who buy from Patek or one of Patek's ADs never sell, trade in, or flip their Pateks. Nor am I saying that everyone who buys from Patek or one of Patek's ADs is completely bought into the ethos and image that Patek is trying to cultivate. All I'm suggesting is that given Patek's behavior and messaging over the past two decades, I find the OPs scenario a very unlikely possibility. I also don't think we'll see a Patek sport watch flood as others have suggested. There may be a mini-secondary market glut of Patek SS sport watches if tastes suddenly change, but that will have minimal effect on Patek manufacturing and/or distribution as the market rebalances toward equilibrium at retail. Patek doesn't want to be fair, Patek wants to be Patek and if people don't "get it", then maybe they're just not ready to buy a Patek.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

I say amen to that. Flood flood flood. Ill finally be able to get my 5990, 5712 and 5740.

Can’t get delivery into ur countries

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Nothing would make more sense than to have the market for SS sports watches exactly as it is now. PP, Rolex AP don't make enough to satisfy rapacious demand so customers have to buy watches they don't really want to get the ones they do.

I’m always intrigued by this sort of comment, it would be interesting to know how many members on here have purchased pieces they didn’t want to get a piece they did. I know my AD wouldn’t let me do this as was proved when buying my first Patek.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Russell996

I’m always intrigued by this sort of comment, it would be interesting to know how many members on here have purchased pieces they didn’t want to get a piece they did. I know my AD wouldn’t let me do this as was proved when buying my first Patek.

You know I do it all the time Russell...

[Russell996]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

You know I do it all the time Russell...

But why? I’m sure you are already at the top of the list.

[Acquisition40]

How does one define/determine "brand loyalty"?

Is it those who have many/very special pieces that are most loyal to the brand (https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/ta...hes-two-pras)?

Or is it possible to be loyal to a brand with owning one or no watches? I.e. someone who has worked for PP for 20+ years and after retiring, volunteers at the PP Museum in Geneva.

S

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Acquisition40

How does one define/determine "brand loyalty"?

Is it those who have many/very special pieces that are most loyal to the brand (https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/ta...hes-two-pras)?

Or is it possible to be loyal to a brand with owning one or no watches? I.e. someone who has worked for PP for 20+ years and after retiring, volunteers at the PP Museum in Geneva.

S

Those who spend generously on a yearly basis.

[Murcielagoboy2]

The real problem here is that too many people think PP = Nautilus/Aquanaut primarily because these Models are the most conspicuous offerings of the worlds foremost watch brand.

Sports watches will go out of fashion again when conspicuous consumption and the corresponding need to signal status so desperately, diminishes (like it did going into the 90s) and actually works to signal absolute gauche tackiness. This transient demand for PP sports will evaporate into thin air and although the sports models will still be desirable PP will once more be about their Calatravas, Chronos, and PCCs.

As a result I wouldn’t build a strategy on a passing fad like AP did. For example, Too many people at Ferrari have forgotten they could only sell 242 cars IN THE WORLD in 1991.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by thase13

I honestly don't think we're going to see that kind of spontaneous action from Patek. Patek's marketing behavior has been pretty consistent for the past two decades when they launched their "Generations" marketing campaign.

Their entire company ethos is built around the notion that "You never actually own a Patek Philippe. You merely look after it for the next generation." That long term generational view is more than just manipulative romantic pablum. Patek believes that it's a key differentiator that is hyper-targeted at a very specific customer segment. Patek is not marketing to the baller, rapper, or moneyed hipster. Patek is marketing to the established man or woman who has, over a lifetime of achievement, amassed success and acquired a cultured patina. This man or woman has reached a point in their lives where their outlook is also generational rather than egocentric.

There is nothing in Patek's behavior that indicates that Patek cares about attracting the millennial or responding to current fads or cultural trends, rather Patek screams tradition and seeks to evolve along traditional lines. IMO, Patek didn't seek the notoriety or cultural cache that it now holds, but it can't ignore the fact that it exists and is trying to figure out how to maintain consistent success knowing that all fame is fleeting.

The problem is that people today are wired to want things when they want them. This immediacy and impatience is anathema to a company that requires a week or more to hand set individually selected and matched gems in a case or a dial and where everything has to be just so before it's allowed out the door. For those people, there will always be the secondary market and while those people might own a Patek, they will not be counted among Patek's core customers irrespective of how many secondary market Pateks they own. It's just understood that this is just the cost of being able to have it now.

The Patek customer ostensibly is wooed by the notion of having his or her name in a book alongside Einstein, Lennon & McCartney, JFK, Tolstoy, Marie Curie, Picasso, Patton, Queen Victoria and all of the other intellectual, artistic, political, and financial elites whose names reside in the Patek archives. They love the trappings of being part of the Patek heritage. They buy into the notion of immortality not only as a name in the Patek archives but as a lasting presence on the arm of son, daughter, grandson, or great granddaughter.

Now I'm not saying that that people who buy from Patek or one of Patek's ADs never sell, trade in, or flip their Pateks. Nor am I saying that everyone who buys from Patek or one of Patek's ADs is completely bought into the ethos and image that Patek is trying to cultivate. All I'm suggesting is that given Patek's behavior and messaging over the past two decades, I find the OPs scenario a very unlikely possibility. I also don't think we'll see a Patek sport watch flood as others have suggested. There may be a mini-secondary market glut of Patek SS sport watches if tastes suddenly change, but that will have minimal effect on Patek manufacturing and/or distribution as the market rebalances toward equilibrium at retail. Patek doesn't want to be fair, Patek wants to be Patek and if people don't "get it", then maybe they're just not ready to buy a Patek.

Brilliant.

[Calatrava r]

Goes back to why did they discontinued the white dial 5711. PP is clearly not trying to make getting their hot timepieces easy. They like the scarcity and the status quo just fine.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Murcielagoboy2

The real problem here is that too many people think PP = Nautilus/Aquanaut primarily because these Models are the most conspicuous offerings of the worlds foremost watch brand.

Sports watches will go out of fashion again when conspicuous consumption and the corresponding need to signal status so desperately, diminishes (like it did going into the 90s) and actually works to signal absolute gauche tackiness. This transient demand for PP sports will evaporate into thin air and although the sports models will still be desirable PP will once more be about their Calatravas, Chronos, and PCCs.

Absolutely, and well said. As Calatrava stated, that's why they put the 5711 white out to pasture. PP doesn't want to become AP. I don't think there is a genuine danger in this, but I'm willing to bet that PP are concerned that many buyers think PP just sell high end SS pieces. All the Naut/Aqua attention is good for the brand if it brings more buyers to the rest of their watches; if it doesn't, its bad for them longer term.

[Token74]

Personally, I think they’ve got it nailed. We may not like it, but it’s working. Don’t see that changing anytime soon.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Reywal]

Originally Posted by thase13

I honestly don't think we're going to see that kind of spontaneous action from Patek. Patek's marketing behavior has been pretty consistent for the past two decades when they launched their "Generations" marketing campaign.

Their entire company ethos is built around the notion that "You never actually own a Patek Philippe. You merely look after it for the next generation." That long term generational view is more than just manipulative romantic pablum. Patek believes that it's a key differentiator that is hyper-targeted at a very specific customer segment. Patek is not marketing to the baller, rapper, or moneyed hipster. Patek is marketing to the established man or woman who has, over a lifetime of achievement, amassed success and acquired a cultured patina. This man or woman has reached a point in their lives where their outlook is also generational rather than egocentric.

There is nothing in Patek's behavior that indicates that Patek cares about attracting the millennial or responding to current fads or cultural trends, rather Patek screams tradition and seeks to evolve along traditional lines. IMO, Patek didn't seek the notoriety or cultural cache that it now holds, but it can't ignore the fact that it exists and is trying to figure out how to maintain consistent success knowing that all fame is fleeting.

The problem is that people today are wired to want things when they want them. This immediacy and impatience is anathema to a company that requires a week or more to hand set individually selected and matched gems in a case or a dial and where everything has to be just so before it's allowed out the door. For those people, there will always be the secondary market and while those people might own a Patek, they will not be counted among Patek's core customers irrespective of how many secondary market Pateks they own. It's just understood that this is just the cost of being able to have it now.

The Patek customer ostensibly is wooed by the notion of having his or her name in a book alongside Einstein, Lennon & McCartney, JFK, Tolstoy, Marie Curie, Picasso, Patton, Queen Victoria and all of the other intellectual, artistic, political, and financial elites whose names reside in the Patek archives. They love the trappings of being part of the Patek heritage. They buy into the notion of immortality not only as a name in the Patek archives but as a lasting presence on the arm of son, daughter, grandson, or great granddaughter.

Now I'm not saying that that people who buy from Patek or one of Patek's ADs never sell, trade in, or flip their Pateks. Nor am I saying that everyone who buys from Patek or one of Patek's ADs is completely bought into the ethos and image that Patek is trying to cultivate. All I'm suggesting is that given Patek's behavior and messaging over the past two decades, I find the OPs scenario a very unlikely possibility. I also don't think we'll see a Patek sport watch flood as others have suggested. There may be a mini-secondary market glut of Patek SS sport watches if tastes suddenly change, but that will have minimal effect on Patek manufacturing and/or distribution as the market rebalances toward equilibrium at retail. Patek doesn't want to be fair, Patek wants to be Patek and if people don't "get it", then maybe they're just not ready to buy a Patek.

I agree with this to a certain degree, but I don't agree that the 'generational' marketing campaign isn't just a manipulative romantic pablum (good word, by the way). I think that's precisely what it is: I think Patek is trying to appeal to new money people who like the idea of being old money.

Whether Patek wants rappers as clientele or not, it is embedded in that subculture now: Jay-Z has rapped about them, Soulja Boy has a song called 'Patek', Valee has a song called 'Patek Philippe' and so do G4 Boyz. Apparently. I haven't listened to any of them.

This is a problem for the legitimacy of Patek's message, because the old money might well decide to avoid Patek like the plague if it becomes 'vulgar'.

Sorry to go a bit off-topic.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by uscmatt99

Wishful thinking. Not gonna happen. Remember the 5522a release? Allegedly targeting new customers as an entry level piece, collectors salivated, secondary prices skyrocketed, and many went to grey dealers for a hefty profit.

Here's the solution that nobody wants. Flood the AD's with 5711 and 5712 blue dials. That's the only way the average Joe will get one, and many who currently own one will be peeved to put it mildly.

Not me. I wish more people have the 5711 and 5712 to enjoy.

[JayG]

What if down was up and up was down?
What if is WIS speak for wishful thinking.

[PJ S]

Originally Posted by Moloch

Way for them to stop flippers and gray market dealers is to have the customer fully pay for the watch but they won't get the watch for a year. Flippers and gray dealers won't tie up their assets when they can make more money in other deals during that year. If all that isn't enough, have every models with waiting list be engraved with initials of names on the list. Engraving won't be optional.

Never have I read such unmitigated idiotic notions in all my life!
Talk about taking complete leave of ones’ senses…

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by Token74

Personally, I think they’ve got it nailed. We may not like it, but it’s working. Don’t see that changing anytime soon.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think the jury is still out. Yeah it’s working now in the height of a 10 year worldwide economic expansion. I wouldn’t argue it’s not.

What happens when we hit a snag? Personally, I don’t see this strategy holding at all once the economic conditions cool, or the “trend” cools (or maybe even changes). Even worse, what if both happen?

Obviously nobody knows, but who is going to buy massively inflated Complications and Grand Complications when they literally are bringing in very few new people to the brand? The entire system as it stands right now reeks of the 2008 financial crisis. Everyone is convinced that’s it’s fine and the way thing are and it’ll continue unfettered. Maybe it will, but it seems a bit of a house of cards to me.

To be clear I’m not suggesting Patek or others will fail. I just would be thinking of ways to bring new people into the brand. And nobody can say the 5212 was a solution...This just exacerbated the problem.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[PJ S]

Originally Posted by Murcielagoboy2

The real problem here is that too many people think PP = Nautilus/Aquanaut primarily because these Models are the most conspicuous offerings of the worlds foremost watch brand.

Sports watches will go out of fashion again when conspicuous consumption and the corresponding need to signal status so desperately, diminishes (like it did going into the 90s) and actually works to signal absolute gauche tackiness. This transient demand for PP sports will evaporate into thin air and although the sports models will still be desirable PP will once more be about their Calatravas, Chronos, and PCCs.

As a result I wouldn’t build a strategy on a passing fad like AP did. For example, Too many people at Ferrari have forgotten they could only sell 242 cars IN THE WORLD in 1991.

If you think that’s going to occur, then you’re predicting a corresponding death of social media.
How likely do you think that is, when brands have set up their own channels/account on the platforms?

[thase13]

Originally Posted by Reywal

I agree with this to a certain degree, but I don't agree that the 'generational' marketing campaign isn't just a manipulative romantic pablum (good word, by the way). I think that's precisely what it is: I think Patek is trying to appeal to new money people who like the idea of being old money.

Whether Patek wants rappers as clientele or not, it is embedded in that subculture now: Jay-Z has rapped about them, Soulja Boy has a song called 'Patek', Valee has a song called 'Patek Philippe' and so do G4 Boyz. Apparently. I haven't listened to any of them.

This is a problem for the legitimacy of Patek's message, because the old money might well decide to avoid Patek like the plague if it becomes 'vulgar'.

Sorry to go a bit off-topic.

Excellent points!

The reason I personally don't subscribe to the "manipulative romantic pablum" position is because two-plus decades is a long time to sustain a facade of propriety if your underlying motives are disingenuous. I do, however, understand your point and acknowledge that I may be giving Patek far too much credit. Furthermore, I don't think Patek segments between old money and new money, rather I think the brand segments between sophistication and urbanity and not ostentation and vanity. I recognize that there is a segment of the new money crowd that thrives on flamboyance and the trappings of wealth and I would assert that that is certainly not a signature trait that Patek would want to associate with the Patek brand.

No brand can choose who their customers are. Certainly Patek has attained cult status due to the numerous "shout-outs" they receive from entertainers who have created and cultivated a personal brand out of a lifestyle of opulence, wealth, and spectacle, but I'm sure that the principals at Patek have never felt the need or desire exploit events that are beyond their direct purview; an example being when Drake commissioned Virgil Abloh to coat his Nautilus with emeralds. In fact, when that news broke, Patek remained typically stoic and acted like the event was a non-event. But one should not confuse struggling to understand how to anti-market against the scope and reach of social media and the web to being ineffective at managing one's brand. Again, not an old money vs. new money thing but more an exercise in how to take back control of the tone, tenor, and substance of your own marketing message from cultural influencers who care very little about your brand and attempt to subvert or co-opt your brand for their benefit and not yours. This is something I think you pointed out quite succinctly and accurately and it will be interesting to see how Patek continues to navigate these waters.

One other point that was raised in other messages in this thread relates to the success of Patek's strategy in the face of an economic down turn. IIRC, the Stern family has owned and run Patek since 1932; since that time we have seen 4 global recessions and 11 or so US recessions and yet they still remain one of the oldest surviving privately owned watch companies in the world. If past performance is a predictor of future outcomes, I think Patek will be well equipped to survive any future global economic correction or calamity that might surface.

Great conversation. Thank you!