How Do You Know

[aw9nineteen]

So there has been multiple threads about prices dropping. It made me wonder, what is everyone waiting for? Name a watch you’ve been eyeing, and what it would have to move to for you to grab it the next day. For example, it’s a Day Date and your move number is 28k.

I’m always interested in what the value number is for others. Also, if it gets there would you see it as the bottom. If the SS Daytona goes to 17k across the Greys, would it fly off of the “shelves”? I’m in sales so personally I never want to overpay for anything, no matter how sentimental. I say this because I know the question makes it seem like we are attempting to guess the bottom of a stock, and at some point it’s subjective perception.


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[dmash]

Honestly I’m waiting to see what potentially happens with sub this year (hopefully not next).

In regards to your question I think everybody considers MSRP fair for a SS piece but not over. If you’re in sales you should know nobody wants to use a coupon code to ADD 50% to the purchase. This is what the vast majority are waiting for.

[Ihatecheese]

The standard disclaimer is that mass produced watches aren't sound investments. Unless you think bitcoin is a good idea to buy today. (Vs if you were lucky with you the timing years ago)

This forum is different with its laser focus on resale and steel watches. The demographic on the forum isn't that cosmopolitan but the sample is so small that we'd have to presume it doesn't represent anything outside of a somewhat obsessive geeky user base, much like any forum online.

If you're paying over retail for anything then you better be confident that there is a market for it, when you choose to sell!

[Cwillis0001]

Originally Posted by dmash

Honestly I’m waiting to see what potentially happens with sub this year (hopefully not next).
.

Same here.

[Macnavara]

Originally Posted by Ihatecheese

If you're paying over retail for anything then you better be confident that there is a market for it, when you choose to sell!

.....remember not everyone that pays over retail has any intention of ever selling so then it doesn’t matter

[Marcjvr]

I wanted a 5 digit sub back in 2015. Good condition models were going for ~$5k at that time, but I wasn’t ready to purchase back then

Since then the prices have inflated like crazy on 5 digit subs. Around $8k to $9k just a few months ago for great condition models. Madness.

So I will keep an eye on them and if they drop back down to an attractive level I just might jump in. I don’t have a specific number in mind though.

[brandrea]

MRSP is the right number for me, but YMMV

[Justinmg]

sub 1k under msrp like the good old days

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by Macnavara

not everyone that pays over retail has any intention of ever selling so then it doesn’t matter

This.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Marcjvr

I wanted a 5 digit sub back in 2015. Good condition models were going for ~$5k at that time, but I wasn’t ready to purchase back then

Since then the prices have inflated like crazy on 5 digit subs. Around $8k to $9k just a few months ago for great condition models. Madness.

So I will keep an eye on them and if they drop back down to an attractive level I just might jump in. I don’t have a specific number in mind though.

I will be grabbing a 116600 myself if they go back down to 2015 numbers.

[peterpl]

MSRP only these days and that's IF I really really really want it for an SS piece. Mostly the new BLRO with updated bezel colors.

For Gold well thats a different story. I've been wanting to upgrade my 116613LB for years. If the 116618LB goes to around sub < $25k for a NIB I will pull the trigger on the upgrade "possibly". LOL

Otherwise I wont be buying a single thing.

[johnorpheus]

Originally Posted by Macnavara

.....remember not everyone that pays over retail has any intention of ever selling so then it doesn’t matter

Exactly. Some people buy a watch because it’s the one they want and they just want to wear it and enjoy it, and they don’t give a rip about its current market valuation. I’m pretty new to the nice watch game, but I never imagined “investing” in watches and monitoring grey pricing like the stock market. It seems like half of the people here are here to do that and the other half are here to talk watches they love. Just worried the latter group is going to be driven away by the former.

[Mystro]

I totally get it. Everyone assigns a value what a particular watch is worth to them. It’s a personal value system regardless where it falls above or below msrp. Where the Rolex train gets derailed for me is placing way too high of a priority of future resale value. I am wearing my watches getting character marks on them and not giving a second thought to what it’s future resale might be.

[Mr. Miami]

Originally Posted by Mystro

I totally get it. Everyone assigns a value what a particular watch is worth to them. It’s a personal value system regardless where it falls above or below msrp. Where the Rolex train gets derailed for me is placing way too high of a priority of future resale value. I am wearing my watches getting character marks on them and not giving a second thought to what it’s future resale might be.

I agree.

[Chester01]

I don’t pay over MSRP. So they can sink with their stock.

[fed_fan]

It’s a moving target for me. I love the BLRO and I think around MSRP is an okay price for the piece. Having said that, as the lockdown progresses, I’m biased toward lowering my trigger price. So it’s somewhat circular in that sense.

As for guessing the bottom that game strikes me as a fool’s errand. We’re talking about an object with no intrinsic value whatsoever so your downside is always 100%. It’s the greater fool theory...if you’re looking to sell then the watch is only worth as much as what the next person (fool) will pay.

Not sure the analogy with stocks is even remotely close - predicting an exact price is impossible but businesses produce cash flows that can be discounted back to present value.

[SeaDuba]

I am new here and this will be my first Rolex purchase. For me, I want the experience of going into an AD and picking out what I want. My list of potentials include DJ41, Explorer 1, no date sub, or Sky D. Whatever I end up with, it will likely be from an AD at MSRP.

[Dr H A]

I want Daytona C white ... willing to pay 15K brand new

[640ibimmerguy]

A BLNR at MSRP and a DJ41 at about 20% off. If I could actually find both at my AD, I'd pick both at the same time.

[Father and Son]

We focus on deciding which watch(es) we want. Then we pay MSRP or less. Granted this all doesnt apply to vintage.

[GradyPhilpott]

Originally Posted by brandrea

MRSP is the right number for me, but YMMV

[kieselguhr]

If my AD offers me something I am interested in and I happen to have my financial ducks in a row, I will pick up the watch.

Thankfully I don’t overthink things because I buy the watch, not the value.

[Boaters]

Originally Posted by Mystro

I totally get it. Everyone assigns a value what a particular watch is worth to them. It’s a personal value system regardless where it falls above or below msrp. Where the Rolex train gets derailed for me is placing way too high of a priority of future resale value. I am wearing my watches getting character marks on them and not giving a second thought to what it’s future resale might be.

So well said

[Zoran]

Originally Posted by brandrea

MRSP is the right number for me, but YMMV

I fully agree!

As some have said, most of us that are looking to buy have a certain amount in their heads for a particular watch.
For me it was the AP 15300OR on a leather strap, that just like most of the watches went through a steep increase in price the past years.
Found one in the condition/configuration I always wanted and made an offer last week. Offered the price I was willing to pay and got it.

For what it's worth, I offered the price of the watch when I first saw it in 2014.

[chloebear]

I bought from gray market dealers when I first got into watches five years ago because the models I liked could be had at a nice discount. When the gray market prices shot up I started buying from my local AD at MSRP. I only care about resale value for two reasons; 1. If I don't bond with the watch after a few months, I can move it, lose a few bucks and maybe even break even or make a few bucks. 2. If the shit ever hits the fan and I need to sell them it would be nice to not lose my ass. The best advice I've found on TRF is to buy what you like and enjoy it; don't buy as an investment. Sage advice.

[Zoran]

Originally Posted by chloebear

I bought from gray market dealers when I first got into watches five years ago because the models I liked could be had at a nice discount. When the gray market prices shot up I started buying from my local AD at MSRP. I only care about resale value for two reasons; 1. If I don't bond with the watch after a few months, I can move it, lose a few bucks and maybe even break even or make a few bucks. 2. If the shit ever hits the fan and I need to sell them it would be nice to not lose my ass. The best advice I've found on TRF is to buy what you like and enjoy it; don't buy as an investment. Sage advice.

Well said, Mike
Those were the good old days, even with some trial and error included
Also, prices were a lot lower then so when you did have to sell, it didn't cost you too much and most of the time the next one was just around the corner to ease the pain!