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Old 19 September 2017, 10:32 AM   #1
AutoBay
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Are we in a 5711 "bubble"?

So, we all know that that 5711 is absurdly, hilariously difficult to get these days. And gray market is even worse. I even found myself considering a 5711R before slapping some sense into myself today. So, curious everyone - do you think we're in the middle of a bubble on this piece? Or is this the new reality on steel Patek sports watches?
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Old 19 September 2017, 10:36 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AutoBay View Post
So, we all know that that 5711 is absurdly, hilariously difficult to get these days. And gray market is even worse. I even found myself considering a 5711R before slapping some sense into myself today. So, curious everyone - do you think we're in the middle of a bubble on this piece? Or is this the new reality on steel Patek sports watches?


Prices going up, production holding tight... I don't think it's a bubble. It's been this way for quite some time. I've moved away from the 5711 and am now just looking for a solid 5712. These seem to be easier to get.


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Rolex Deepsea Deep Blue 116660
Rolex Daytona 116520WSO

Cued Up...
Patek Nautilus 5712
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Old 19 September 2017, 10:38 AM   #3
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(From my limited knowledge both current and historical of PP) Bubble. At some point the hype will ease...unless of course PP decide to cease production.
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Old 19 September 2017, 11:30 AM   #4
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Are we in a 5711 "bubble"?

I wonder if they stopped producing nautli during the summer months...


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Old 19 September 2017, 11:42 AM   #5
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Simple economics and equilibrium will eventually be found. We know supply will remain constant so only the demand side is the variable. As prices become ridiculous, people find substitutes and tastes change there will be less demand. As the demand softens prices will soften and suddenly people will see the watch not as an investment but as a watch and thus those buying for investment, will pull out and go elsewhere and thus demand will soften more....there has to be a new Nautilus at some stage but that won't mean it will be any easier to obtain. In fact possibly more difficult as the exuberance focuses on the newer model and thus the older model will be more readily available.
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Old 19 September 2017, 12:40 PM   #6
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I have been following PP for about 5 years. So a question to those who have been paying interest to PP for longer period of time, has there in the past perhaps been a similar situation with any other model?
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Old 19 September 2017, 12:51 PM   #7
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I personally think Patek has taken some long needed advice and cut back on shipping watches.

We all know the watch market isn't getting better and brands are way over producing. The only brand growing is RM. The only reason that's even happening is because people can't get the watches and have to pay retail if they are so lucky.

That being said, maybe PP has taken some sound advice and started to realize that less is more.
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Old 19 September 2017, 01:17 PM   #8
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A bubble? Not remotely.

There is no other watch that is so obsessed about on this forum, both positively and negatively.

I have one, nice watch. But gosh, it's tiring to read so much hype and anti-hype on a daily basis.
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Old 19 September 2017, 03:16 PM   #9
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Bubble. The resale value is absurd. Grab a Royal Oak instead!
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Old 19 September 2017, 03:20 PM   #10
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Bubble. The resale value is absurd. Grab a Royal Oak instead!
totally agree
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Old 19 September 2017, 07:48 PM   #11
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I have been following PP for about 5 years. So a question to those who have been paying interest to PP for longer period of time, has there in the past perhaps been a similar situation with any other model?
5960P and 5980 were going for crazy premiums above list at launch. Financial crisis hit soon after and both went to below MSRP. 5980 recovered after it was discontinued, but the 5960 never did.

The frenzy on SS Nautilus wasn't at this level at launch... Not that long ago you could find them at ADs with discounts.
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Old 19 September 2017, 08:04 PM   #12
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Put your name down with an AD for a 5711, wait your turn and get a wonderful piece.
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Old 19 September 2017, 10:11 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AutoBay View Post
So, we all know that that 5711 is absurdly, hilariously difficult to get these days. And gray market is even worse. I even found myself considering a 5711R before slapping some sense into myself today. So, curious everyone - do you think we're in the middle of a bubble on this piece? Or is this the new reality on steel Patek sports watches?
You can answer your own question.

How badly do you want one?
What are you willing to pay?

If you are buying to own then only you can decide if you are ok with the current price.

If you are buying to flip then you have to hope someone will pay more than you did, that is the sign of a bubble.
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Old 19 September 2017, 10:32 PM   #14
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I could be totally wrong but I believe there are multiple lists with the same people on them all. That is for the ADs that will place out of towners on their lists which I'm quite sure before the hype really started to set in wasn't an issue. My reasoning behind thinking this way is that out of nowhere hundreds of people didn't just all become $25k SS buyers all at once. I know the watch has been introduced to some new buyers that weren't previously interested in it but very doubtful in the numbers the ADs claim are on waiting lists.

Then there are the prospectors/flippers but they too are putting their names down everywhere they don't have a connection I would assume.
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Old 19 September 2017, 11:18 PM   #15
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I have one, nice watch. But gosh, it's tiring to read so much hype and anti-hype on a daily basis.
This.
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Old 19 September 2017, 11:34 PM   #16
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totally agree
They're not the same by any means but the RO is a great watch and for the money hard to overlook. In PM I'd rather get the YG Royal Oak versus the 5711R.
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Old 20 September 2017, 12:24 AM   #17
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Bubble. The resale value is absurd. Grab a Royal Oak instead!
I think AP is benefitting from this altho 202 prices are also on the rise. Lange could be grabbing some market share here if they came up with a sports model in similar price range.
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Old 20 September 2017, 12:37 AM   #18
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Well, friends - love the vibrant commentary here. :) Thanks!
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Old 20 September 2017, 12:39 AM   #19
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Guess I am one of the few who doesn't feel anything about 5711 other than flipping it for a profit lol.

I am still waiting for 5712. Will only buy at retail. There are still many other watches on my list. No hurry and not really into the hype.


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Old 20 September 2017, 01:56 AM   #20
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I have 11/12, prefer 12, waiting for 11 to hit 50 k to sell it, so sure hope it's not a bubble
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Old 20 September 2017, 02:42 AM   #21
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Lange could be grabbing some market share here if they came up with a sports model in similar price range.

We can all dream! A Lange sports watch:



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Old 20 September 2017, 02:43 AM   #22
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Bubble. The resale value is absurd. Grab a Royal Oak instead!
Yup. 15202>5711
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Old 20 September 2017, 02:47 AM   #23
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Reduced overall production vs. last year

Reduced steel production in general

Focus on delivering exhibition pieces i.e. 5522 with similar 324 movements =

Inflated Naut / Aqua prices...
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Old 20 September 2017, 02:58 AM   #24
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5711 blue dial is readily available at grey dealers in the UK with a huge premium. I wonder how many people buy this watch only to flip it for a profit.
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Old 20 September 2017, 03:03 AM   #25
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Big imbalance between supply and demand, likely deliberate from the supply side. If that's your definition of a bubble, then yes. No incentive to add supply other than a temporary boost in short term sales followed by a crash in prices. Nothing that manufacturers like more than feeding frenzy by buyers. Saw this similar situation with Harleys decades ago and also many other examples. All bubbles "fun" to be in on the way up, not so fun on the trip down especially for speculators. Long terms owners, like anything else, no big deal.
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Old 20 September 2017, 03:23 AM   #26
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15202>5711
Agreed.
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Old 20 September 2017, 03:33 AM   #27
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We can all dream! A Lange sports watch:



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Or a SS Zeitwerk at half the price.
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Old 20 September 2017, 04:19 AM   #28
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Reduced overall production vs. last year

Reduced steel production in general

Focus on delivering exhibition pieces i.e. 5522 with similar 324 movements =

Inflated Naut / Aqua prices...


I agree. After I purchased a 5726, they told me that was the first in 14-15 months they had gotten. AD said production is way down on ss models.


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Old 20 September 2017, 07:52 AM   #29
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I'd like to just get on a list for a 5711 or 5712 steel but even thats near impossible in the U.K. .......is it the same problem to get on a list with AD's in the UK for the Royal Oak ss blue dial?
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Old 20 September 2017, 07:55 AM   #30
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I'd like to just get on a list for a 5711 or 5712 steel but even thats near impossible in the U.K. .......is it the same problem to get on a list with AD's in the UK for the Royal Oak ss blue dial?
Call APSC, I think they are still taking names.
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