The real reason for Rolex scarcity

[RyanJ]

I have no idea why this happened. All I know is Rolex was ready with brand new store displays already made and shipped to ADs.

Almost like they knew this was going to happen.. Weird..

All I know is I hope this continues.

[jlushing]

Originally Posted by NIHO

So let me reiterate what you are saying:

1) all of these millionaires appeared 4 years ago, because 5 years ago everything minus the steel Daytona was on the shelf

2) All of these millionaires don't like Omega, since in their boutique you can find a million variations of the same steel watch

Sorry, but I am not buying this simple explanation. Rolex definitely made an acute change a few years ago.

Leadership change in 2015.....

https://www.wsj.com/articles/rolex-n...ceo-1397578466

Makes sense right? Come into office in 2015 and brings in the exclusive “luxury” mindset that wasn’t there before to the extent it is now...



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[FTX I]

Real reason for scarcity threads usually turn out to be real debates with no real conclusion.

[exador]

Sorry OP, I'm also not buying it.

1. You don't need to be rich to buy a Rolex. In fact the whole ethos of the brand is affordable luxury.
2. Rich people don't flip watches for a couple of grand profit. Yet flippers are plaguing our hobby.
3. There are supposedly 27,000 less millionaires in the UK now due to Brexit. Doesn't seem to harmed watch sales there (see below).

The "scarcity" is being driven by hype, social media, cheap money and the mistaken belief that Rolex prices will never come down.

[Greg 59]

Considering how much emphasis the Asians usually place on precious metals I struggle to understand why they would go chasing after a stainless steel model. Plus, of any of you have ever tried to do business with a Chinese person you will know they won't pay a cent more than they have to and invariably want a discount. I don't believe the Chinese are buying up any more Rolexes than anyone else.

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[Dlong]

In China, if you are successful, you wear a Rolex. Doesn't even matter if the time is correct. It's a status piece of jewelry on your wrist. They tell time with their smart phone. A few AD's be me say the Chinese will come in and buy 5 or 6 at a time.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by NIHO

So let me reiterate what you are saying:
1) all of these millionaires appeared 4 years ago, because 5 years ago everything minus the steel Daytona was on the shelf
2) All of these millionaires don't like Omega, since in their boutique you can find a million variations of the same steel watch
Sorry, but I am not buying this simple explanation. Rolex definitely made an acute change a few years ago.

I tend to agree. It’s probably a bit of both, but more to do with strategic planning on the part of Rolex IMO.

[Seibei]

Thanks, guys for your great response to this thread and the many excellent points made.

[Burgman]

Interesting post and Thanks for the info....

[sambb]

if one invested the retail price of a daytona 10 years ago in the S&P, you would have more than enough to buy one at gray dealers now, even at inflated values... Expanding wealth happens with investment which can fuel purchases.

[42itus]

I wonder if rich people want or even care about what's hot?

The few very rich people that I know wouldn't even bat an eye at SS. But if it's people that recently became rich then maybe they just follow hype?

[bonovox]

Oh, so this is the reason...

[patrickjb]

"The report says millennials – those born between the early 1980s and the late 90s – are the least well-off age group."


Welp, looks like I'm screwed

[locutus49]

Exactly. Chinese are not stupid. They know what the best luxury watches are and they want them, as do Indians and people from other recently developed countries. No conspiracy, just supply can't meet demand.

So all you people who are whining that you can't buy the watch you want yet your signature block contains several highly coveted Rolexes; well maybe the world will stop for you, and maybe it won't.

Originally Posted by ganagati

Have you looked at Nautilus/Aquanaut prices? The same is happening to AP and Patek.

[ChipotleBanana]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

Thank you for sharing OP. Many of the forum members have been aware of this for a while now. There will still be forum members who insist that there is a conspiracy going on and that Rolex, their ADs, and the gray markets are plotting against them.

Everyone on this forum who thinks a conspiracy is occurring has never purchased a watch before. Anyone who has been buying watches for a while will be more than happy with the current market. I swear half the people on this forum aren't real.

[locutus49]

The Russian troll farm has decided to sow dissension among Rolex forum members.

Originally Posted by ChipotleBanana

Everyone on this forum who thinks a conspiracy is occurring has never purchased a watch before. Anyone who has been buying watches for a while will be more than happy with the current market. I swear half the people on this forum aren't real.

[Me4u2night]

Originally Posted by othertbone

Not from what I see.

There are thousands of steel sports Rolex's for sale in just one south Florida jewelry district I know. One seller himself has hundreds of unworn examples. What about in your neighborhood? Same right? Crown & Caliber even has 19 Hulk's for sale!

Come on, a shortage, or scarcity means hard to find!

I was recently in NYC and went to the diamond district and saw hundreds of all your favorites in the windows, and thousands more inside. It's like that in every wealthy city in the world.

There is no shortage. Since Rolex prices have increased so much, the AD's make more money selling directly to the grey market at a premium then selling to you or me at retail.

The AD's are causing this and they are making a ton of money doing so.

Sorry, that is whats going on Boys.

Pretty much what he said. If the rich were buying up the Rolexes, explain why the Grey dealers have? Wouldn’t the rich just buy up those as well?

[kaiserphoenix]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

So why isn't this happening with other brands (Omega/VC/AP/Patek/...) or in other industries (cars, real estate, ...)?

I know they have been buying a lot of real estate in California, other parts of the US, Canada and such but if there are so many millionaires you should see the current effect x 2-3-4-5 times? It still seems reasonable what's going on.

And why aren't they buying Porsches/Ferrari's like crazy? Or other luxury items? Seems like these brands aren't dealing with these problems.

I truly can't imagine every Chinese millionaire desires a pepsi or hulk when they can easily spend 100k on 1 watch and buy several more. And why are all the Daytona's and BLNR sitting at 13-25k if they can easily spend and buy one at a grey?

They ARE buying porsche and ferrari’s like crazy. You think u can just walk in to a dealership and purchase a “real” ferrari or porsche? no man, u gotta get in line, waiting lists, previous purchase all this BS is equally present in porsche and ferrari’s too!!!

[kaiserphoenix]

Originally Posted by Me4u2night

Pretty much what he said. If the rich were buying up the Rolexes, explain why the Grey dealers have? Wouldn’t the rich just buy up those as well?

The rich are mainly rich coz they are smart with money. They will buy a daytona at retail coz they know it will increase in value. They didn’t become rich just buy surflously spending money right and left.

[RootBeerGMT]

Rolex is recognized by almost anyone. Most people don’t know what an Omega is, or a Patek and other far more expensive makers.
Rolex is the king in most people eyes. Demand has caused it to be harder to find. But they are out there. ADs are loving making their extra mark up and people will pay it because they want the feeling of achievement by wearing such a well know status symbol.

And whoever keeps crying about Omega.... go to their forum. Casio has a forum too I hear.

[ronricks]

Has anyone on here been paying attention to the Chinese economy the last 6 months? It’s isn’t expanding it is contracting greatly....

[Ichiran]

Yeah it is possibly due to an increase in demand.

[SeikoBake]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Has anyone on here been paying attention to the Chinese economy the last 6 months? It’s isn’t expanding it is contracting greatly....

I don’t think China has much to do with the market scarcity of Rolex. Actually, I think it all has to do with the US. Are the the flippers all selling to their watches to China ? No. They are selling to everyday Americans. I have friends who’ve never worn watches now coming to me saying “hey you’re into watches, can you tell me something about a watch called a Batman?”

[chancm]

Originally Posted by ronricks

Has anyone on here been paying attention to the Chinese economy the last 6 months? It’s isn’t expanding it is contracting greatly....

Hmmm i thought they are still growing but just at a lower pace.


http://www.scmp.com/economy/china-ec...uarter-sinking

[gameon]

It has become the bitcoin of watches. Rolex Watches have become an investment currency for someone or a place to park and diversify albeit a small part of your money. Just like bitcoin where you have other cyber currencies that don’t come close to the demand of bitcoin. I have no proof of this but seems logical.

[ronricks]

Originally Posted by chancm

Hmmm i thought they are still growing but just at a lower pace.


http://www.scmp.com/economy/china-ec...uarter-sinking

That is if you believe their original claims going back 2 years. Most economists don’t. If they are saying 6% gdp now what its the real number? They are hurting and it isn’t stopping anytime soon.

[In-Cog-Neeto]

Originally Posted by SeikoBake

I have friends who’ve never worn watches now coming to me saying “hey you’re into watches, can you tell me something about a watch called a Batman?”

Yip, this has happened to me a lot

There is a heightened awareness of watches, particularly Rolex, in the general population and this creates demand.

It’s a self fulfilling prophecy

[subdateII]

A new breed of collector buying every variation of modern Rolex models brand new from AD? https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=htxOMuDJ59s

[matt_Denver]

this is the problem, people are making a living flipping watches like never before!

https://www.watchtradingacademy.com/bfcm/

[inadeje]

Russia in the 90s and now China. The first thing that people do when they become affluent is to emulate the quintessential rich person. They seek out brands, status symbols and culture through spending. It’s happened since time began and it isn’t likely to change.