The real reason for Rolex scarcity

[exador]

Originally Posted by matt_Denver

this is the problem, people are making a living flipping watches like never before!

https://www.watchtradingacademy.com/bfcm/

WTF. That can't be for real can it?

[ganagati]

Originally Posted by Me4u2night

Pretty much what he said. If the rich were buying up the Rolexes, explain why the Grey dealers have? Wouldn’t the rich just buy up those as well?

I don't know why it has to be an either or as opposed to nouveau riche on social media creating a demand on which the gray market dealers were primed to and have capitalized. Of course Joe Schmoe off the street gets screwed, but VIPs are getting whatever they want, as always, and the grays are scooping up the rest.

[subdateII]

It is happening to all watches that are limited in production including Omegas (think Snoopy, Ultraman....)

Originally Posted by NIHO

So let me reiterate what you are saying:
1) all of these millionaires appeared 4 years ago, because 5 years ago everything minus the steel Daytona was on the shelf
2) All of these millionaires don't like Omega, since in their boutique you can find a million variations of the same steel watch
Sorry, but I am not buying this simple explanation. Rolex definitely made an acute change a few years ago.

[Paul7]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

The smarter Chinese citizens experiencing prosperity wind falls have been buying property in the United States instead of luxury items. I remember trying to buy houses in 2012 in Las Vegas was a little challenging when all competitors were paying outright cash.

That will increase with some heading for the exits in Hong Kong.

[chancm]

Originally Posted by ronricks

That is if you believe their original claims going back 2 years. Most economists don’t. If they are saying 6% gdp now what its the real number? They are hurting and it isn’t stopping anytime soon.

Yeah it is quite difficult to believe the press these days

[LDN]

Not buying it! There are even more rich folks on this planer beside Chinese and Americans!

[kuuttingg]

Originally Posted by NIHO

So let me reiterate what you are saying:

1) all of these millionaires appeared 4 years ago, because 5 years ago everything minus the steel Daytona was on the shelf

2) All of these millionaires don't like Omega, since in their boutique you can find a million variations of the same steel watch

Sorry, but I am not buying this simple explanation. Rolex definitely made an acute change a few years ago.

Totally agree! I remember when I bought my BLNR about 3 years ago, and the AD had Hulk watches. I tried it but I really do appreciate the color-scheme of Black/Blue. Rich people have been around way before the scarcity of SS Rolex!

[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by NIHO

So let me reiterate what you are saying:
1) all of these millionaires appeared 4 years ago, because 5 years ago everything minus the steel Daytona was on the shelf
2) All of these millionaires don't like Omega, since in their boutique you can find a million variations of the same steel watch
Sorry, but I am not buying this simple explanation. Rolex definitely made an acute change a few years ago.

Exactly why I've stopped arguing in these threads. Everyone just became rich overnight and cleared the display of Rolex, so Rolex had to create new display-trays so they still look presentable.

[SL BRABUS]

I go with the opposites......

It the FAKE RICH......

[akilis]

Originally Posted by Seibei

Just read this article and all will become clear:

https://www.theguardian.com/business...richest-people

To put it simply there are more rich people in the world than ever before, their numbers are increasing and Rolex is not increasing production.

From the article:

"The bank’s annual wealth survey found there were 100 million Chinese people among the world’s top 10% of richest people, compared with 99 million in the US."

The number of wealthy people in China is increasing at a rapid rate. If 10% of these 100 million rich Chinese want a Rolex, they need 10 million Rolex watches. Rolex makes 800.000 watches a year. Many of these are not that hot/desirable. You can do the math...

So, there is no grand conspiracy. There is no organization hoovering up Rolex watches, cornering the market and pumping up prices. There are simply more people than ever able to buy a Rolex watch and demand is far ahead of supply.

Unless Rolex ramps up production by an order of magnitude this situation is unlikely to change. There is no reason to expect the number of wealthy people will decrease.

Conclusion. If you want a Rolex watch buy it now. It is not going to become any cheaper or easier to get in the foreseeable future.

that's why Rolex value stay so strong thanks to a lot of 90s Hong Kong movies...

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by Seibei

Just read this article and all will become clear:

https://www.theguardian.com/business...richest-people

To put it simply there are more rich people in the world than ever before, their numbers are increasing and Rolex is not increasing production.

From the article:

"The bank’s annual wealth survey found there were 100 million Chinese people among the world’s top 10% of richest people, compared with 99 million in the US."

The number of wealthy people in China is increasing at a rapid rate. If 10% of these 100 million rich Chinese want a Rolex, they need 10 million Rolex watches. Rolex makes 800.000 watches a year. Many of these are not that hot/desirable. You can do the math...

So, there is no grand conspiracy. There is no organization hoovering up Rolex watches, cornering the market and pumping up prices. There are simply more people than ever able to buy a Rolex watch and demand is far ahead of supply.

Unless Rolex ramps up production by an order of magnitude this situation is unlikely to change. There is no reason to expect the number of wealthy people will decrease.

Conclusion. If you want a Rolex watch buy it now. It is not going to become any cheaper or easier to get in the foreseeable future.

Those of us from the UK have been saying this, coupled with the social media "explosion" of recent years, since late 2016

There is no "withholding supply" conspiracy

[watchmaker]

Originally Posted by Devildog

Those of us from the UK have been saying this, coupled with the social media "explosion" of recent years, since late 2016

There is no "withholding supply" conspiracy

Completely agree.

I would have never have thought that article was news to anybody

[Oxfordian]

I am so bored with these threads, doing my brain in, if you cannot buy a Rolex buy something else instead, create the new 'must have brand' become trend setters or whatever just please stop whinging about the lack of Rolex watches.

There are more buyers than watches and this especially applies to SS Professional models.

Note to self: do not read anymore threads where the words Rolex, scarcity, AD, empty shelves or similar is in the title.

[watchmaker]

Originally Posted by Oxfordian

I am so bored with these threads, doing my brain in, if you cannot buy a Rolex buy something else instead, create the new 'must have brand' become trend setters or whatever just please stop whinging about the lack of Rolex watches.

There are more buyers than watches and this especially applies to SS Professional models.

Note to self: do not read anymore threads where the words Rolex, scarcity, AD, empty shelves or similar is in the title.

[Sublovin]

The only problem with this explanation is that the proportional shortage should be spread among many different luxury items. Why is there not a similar shortage in many other luxury markets which have not dramatically increased production? Unless rich people are only buying Rolex watches, I don’t think this is an explanation. Also, there is no Rolex “shortage”, there are plenty of brand new pieces to be had if you are willing to pay, just not sitting at the AD.

[VegasMilgauss]

There was me blaming the Swiss watch trade unionists and all along it's the nouveau riche..

[AK797]

This Chinese boom also coincided with the relaxing of bribery laws in around 15/16, which directly points to why Rolex got the biggest kickstart of all luxuries, right before the global demand explosion, along with Brexit, Crypto, QE and booming markets, all of these were factors not just the Chinese.

Remember there just needs to be an initial spark of rising demand, once a price rise has been established then the most important factor becomes price, that drives demand/speculators which then drives price, and that is how you get a price spiral even when the initial factors no longer apply.

[Stellite]

Originally Posted by matt_Denver

this is the problem, people are making a living flipping watches like never before!

https://www.watchtradingacademy.com/bfcm/

Exactly and here is what I posted in another thread a few days ago

Originally Posted by Stellite

So when you see the flippers on the sale forum constantly selling watches way above retail, how are they getting them? I mean, on a daily basis these guys are posting new or near new watches, yet no one has them in store available. So what AD's are selling watches to people who immediately flip them and come back for more? These scalpers are profiting well off of an industry that supposedly is controlled to prevent this crap. I know certain AD's that make a list for each watch regardless of how much you purchase. Good thing is that once you buy it, you go to the bottom of the line. This prevents the scalpers from getting more because they buy more.

Next time you are at the AD ask them if buying 100k in watches will get you all the steel models you want over and over again. If they say yes, then you can tell them that they are encouraging the scalpers. After all for a 100k investment, anyone can certainly start flipping watches knowing that a dealer will give preference with big money.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Seibei

Just read this article and all will become clear:

https://www.theguardian.com/business...richest-people

To put it simply there are more rich people in the world than ever before, their numbers are increasing and Rolex is not increasing production.

From the article:

"The bank’s annual wealth survey found there were 100 million Chinese people among the world’s top 10% of richest people, compared with 99 million in the US."

The number of wealthy people in China is increasing at a rapid rate. If 10% of these 100 million rich Chinese want a Rolex, they need 10 million Rolex watches. Rolex makes 800.000 watches a year. Many of these are not that hot/desirable. You can do the math...

So, there is no grand conspiracy. There is no organization hoovering up Rolex watches, cornering the market and pumping up prices. There are simply more people than ever able to buy a Rolex watch and demand is far ahead of supply.

Unless Rolex ramps up production by an order of magnitude this situation is unlikely to change. There is no reason to expect the number of wealthy people will decrease.

Conclusion. If you want a Rolex watch buy it now. It is not going to become any cheaper or easier to get in the foreseeable future.

Uh, sure. Then why can I go to any of the hundreds of gray market dealers and have any single watch I want by weeks end? Plenty of supply and if the demand was so great in Asia, then gray market would not have so many available. Sorry, not buying it.

[Speedbird-1]

Communism, seems to be working quite well, doesn't it.

[strafer_kid]

Originally Posted by djgallo

I agree with the OP 110% .....you nailed it!

To make matters worse and in addition....all of the other developing countries are increasing in wealth too....

Really? So if other developing countries are getting wealthier, that is making things worse for us because we cannot get watches?

[scubadds]

Originally Posted by inadeje

Russia in the 90s and now China. The first thing that people do when they become affluent is to emulate the quintessential rich person. They seek out brands, status symbols and culture through spending. It’s happened since time began and it isn’t likely to change.

The scene from gone in 60 seconds reminds me of the Rolex market in some weird way...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPS02EFgdfE

Just swap the cars with whatever Rolex model you see commonly and the rare ones "are in the wharehouse"
At some point everyone seems to have a "______" (insert Submariner, GMT, DJ); then the mass moves on to more refined models, then brands; seems the vintage craze is/was big; they (asian markets) realize the Americans that they emulate not only are wearing the new models; but they have had Rolex's for years and have older worn models also....

[Blansky]

In my house there is no Rolex scarcity.

I just open my watch box and lo and behold, there it is.

Sometimes you just need to be happy with what you already have.

[watchmaker]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Uh, sure. Then why can I go to any of the hundreds of gray market dealers and have any single watch I want by weeks end? Plenty of supply and if the demand was so great in Asia, then gray market would not have so many available. Sorry, not buying it.

It’s not really up for debate. There is great wealth in Asia, and several Asian countries rank very highly (and are continuing to grow) on the Swiss watch export list.

That doesn’t even touch on the volume of Asian tourists in European (and presumably North American) cities that pay tour guides to take them on shopping tours of large cities like London where they buy vast quantities of luxury goods off all sorts.

https://www.fhs.swiss/pdf/mt3_180112_a.pdf

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by watchmaker

It’s not really up for debate. There is great wealth in Asia, and several Asian countries rank very highly (and are continuing to grow) on the Swiss watch export list.

That doesn’t even touch on the volume of Asian tourists in European (and presumably North American) cities that pay tour guides to take them on shopping tours of large cities like London where they buy vast quantities of luxury goods off all sorts.

https://www.fhs.swiss/pdf/mt3_180112_a.pdf

That’s not the issue. Yes, Asia is a growing economy, yes there is a shortage. If there was a true shortage, then they would be hard to obtain...anywhere. That’s not the case. Don’t believe me, visit David SW’s site and chose what you like. Lol. Shortage.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[In-Cog-Neeto]

Originally Posted by watchmaker

It’s not really up for debate. There is great wealth in Asia, and several Asian countries rank very highly (and are continuing to grow) on the Swiss watch export list.

That doesn’t even touch on the volume of Asian tourists in European (and presumably North American) cities that pay tour guides to take them on shopping tours of large cities like London where they buy vast quantities of luxury goods off all sorts.

https://www.fhs.swiss/pdf/mt3_180112_a.pdf

Nope. Sorry. You are completely wrong.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Lt Virgil Hilts

Communism, seems to be working quite well, doesn't it.

Yes, it is working mighty fine at propagating to the west how wonderful everything in China is, but in reality, nobody really knows what's going on there....including their own government.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/21...g-about-china/

So all these "China Syndrome" theories need to piled with the rest of the speculation as to why you can't simply stumble into your friendly local Rolex AD and walk out the door with a brand new SS whatever...

[Rado63]

Originally Posted by othertbone

Not from what I see.

There are thousands of steel sports Rolex's for sale in just one south Florida jewelry district I know. One seller himself has hundreds of unworn examples. What about in your neighborhood? Same right? Crown & Caliber even has 19 Hulk's for sale!

Come on, a shortage, or scarcity means hard to find!

I was recently in NYC and went to the diamond district and saw hundreds of all your favorites in the windows, and thousands more inside. It's like that in every wealthy city in the world.

There is no shortage. Since Rolex prices have increased so much, the AD's make more money selling directly to the grey market at a premium then selling to you or me at retail.

The AD's are causing this and they are making a ton of money doing so.

Sorry, that is whats going on Boys.

Crown and caliber does have 19 hulks for sale, but Hulk is a watch that has been available for nearly ten years. Lowest price watch on the site has no box, no papers, and maybe a ten year old watch. Price $12400 I believe the prices are reflecting the real low inventory of these pieces. Maybe not a shortage, but not overwhelming number of watches available.

[othertbone]

Originally Posted by Rado63

Crown and caliber does have 19 hulks for sale, but Hulk is a watch that has been available for nearly ten years. Lowest price watch on the site has no box, no papers, and maybe a ten year old watch. Price $12400 I believe the prices are reflecting the real low inventory of these pieces. Maybe not a shortage, but not overwhelming number of watches available.

That watch hasn't been at that price since before Basel

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by ganagati

Have you looked at Nautilus/Aquanaut prices? The same is happening to AP and Patek.

Besides those few popular models. There are a lot that aren't picked up even though they are definitely worth it.

Every time some model gets discontinued (the one with the leather strap or whatever the model was) or the rumor goes around people suddenly need to have it. If they are so rich, why didn't they pick it up sooner?