Is vintage collecting a dying hobby?

[MorningTundra]

Just some rambling thoughts after reflecting on my collection and I'm wondering if anyone else is having them too...

I'm enjoying all the recent threads on crazy prices, laser welding, reluming, dishonest and embellished descriptions, super replicas etc...

And I'm wondering if we're experiencing the golden age of this hobby?

Is the vintage Rolex collecting hobby peaking? I'm talking about enthusiasm for the hobby rather than prevailing prices and asset investors.

With things becoming SO technical, counterfeits becoming SO good and scams being SO sophisticated, this hobby has barriers to entry like never before. Disposable income and excellent 20/20 eye sight, is no longer the biggest challenge.

I've collected lots of things since childhood - stamps, coins, fountain pens, cigarette lighters. General enthusiasm for collecting these objects peaked while they had some social context and utility. Collections now go unsold at estate sales...

The number of collectors of these objects today is far fewer than 20 years ago. And the average age is surely much higher. Prices have collapsed for all but museum grade examples.

Where is Vintage Rolex Collecting in this lifecycle?

Are vintage collectors and enthusiasts an endangered species? I really doubt my young kids will share my enthusiasm for these old watches when they're adults in 20 years. Will my collection of medium-grade 1950s & 60s watches go unsold at an estate sale in one or two generations time?

... or maybe I'm just having a down-day and need to get over myself and just buy another watch.

[lhanddds]

I think with some of these prices folks are paying for five digit models with metal surrounds ( there were a ton of these made), you better love it because I don’t believe these prices will hold. JMHO


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[rootbeer7]

I think you might be correct.

[tie219]

A lot of this has to do with the new age of social media and the rise of sites such as Instagram or Hodinkee that have raised awareness on not only luxury watches, but vintage Rolex. My guess is that the rise in price is due to mostly speculators and people with more money than sense. Prices may fall when the next trend is realized and these "new" collectors lose interest.

[jdmi32]

As long as watches retain their spot as the one accessory, or piece of jewelry if you prefer, that is acceptable for men to wear, then I see no change happening. Prices will fluctuate as with all collectibles, but I think the long term trend for vintage Rolex is still bright.

I also disagree that the pool of collectors is shrinking. If anything, the internet has opened the door for many people who otherwise would have never gotten into collecting.

Yes, prices have gone up by an unhealthy amount IMO the past few years. But they also fell sharply during the last financial crises. Long term collectors who collect because they love the watches and ignore the blips in prices are the ones who will get the most out of this hobby.

[yessir69]

I think vintage Rolex collecting is now a rich man's hobby. Used to not be that way. Oh, how I love change...

[1675-David]

collecting vintage Rolex has definitely become a more challenging hobby considering the amount of money now involved and the hunt is more fraught with danger. As a enthusiast I no longer have the economic muscle to make a snap decision about a piece that pops up on my radar and in today's climate you snooze, you loose. Making a spur of the moment decision to pick up a piece for 3000USD compared to 30 000USD is like night and day, I can't afford loose 30K so for me at least I don't see more watches on the horizon, rather a consolidation of what I have into 2 or 3 show stoppers

[MorningTundra]

I can't get my head around what an Apple Watch will look like with 20 more years of development. But if watch makers are still producing mechanical wrist watches, I believe they'll be telling time with hands on a dial... How many people in 2038 will even be able to tell time on a device like this?

Even today, telling time on an analog device is a dying skill, like navigating with a map and compass. Sure there will be outliers; like the guys collecting naval sextants...

In 20 years, how many of our kids today will goto a post office to buy a stamp to mail a letter they wrote with their own hand using a fountain pen? Let alone light a cigarette with a solid gold Dunhill table lighter!?

My point being our interest in collectable vintage things seems to come from their utility and social relevance. I'm not sure my (or any) kids today will have either of those in 20 years. Really think they'll be impressed by a 1680 with tiny red writing that can keep track of the day of the month? Even with an original MK1 or kissing 40 bezel!?! There will be far more mind blowing things for them to obsess over.

I have a nagging feeling average pieces like mine are destined to be donor watches for a dwindling number of genuine enthusiasts with ever deeper pockets...

[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by tie219

A lot of this has to do with the new age of social media and the rise of sites such as Instagram or Hodinkee that have raised awareness on not only luxury watches, but vintage Rolex. My guess is that the rise in price is due to mostly speculators and people with more money than sense. Prices may fall when the next trend is realized and these "new" collectors lose interest.

IG and Hodinkee are so popular (in part) due to the people they feature - cutting edge social influencers and successful high achievers. I think you're right that we have them to thank for the rise in demand, interest and prices.

But it still feels generational... I'm a late GenX-er and can't shrug the feeling these platforms are talking past me to the Millenials. How will most post millennials relate to AP or Patek? I could envisage a first gen iPod (complete with B&P) being more collectable to them.

[scurfa]

if your worried about your investment I would just cash in now, my own collection is worth a tidy sum but when I consider cashing in I cannot sell even one because I love them all. enjoy them or walk away.

[JustinK]

I have been thinking of selling some pieces to lock in my gains but it’s hard as I love my watches. Instagram has attracted more people to the hobby and I think more are collecting today than ever before.
I believe this hobby has everything to do with disposable income and the markets are good now. The markets tend to turn on a dime as will the vintage market IMHO.
It’s impossible to time the market so you got to go with your gut.

[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by scurfa

if your worried about your investment I would just cash in now, my own collection is worth a tidy sum but when I consider cashing in I cannot sell even one because I love them all. enjoy them or walk away.

I'm really not thinking about liquidating my collection. While I've been trying to downsize, I'm not trying to get out of them or lock in any return. They're a purely emotional attachment and I enjoy them more than the pocket full of cash... TBH, I've spent more servicing, rescuing and restoring them than any business minded person would do.

[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by JustinK

I have been thinking of selling some pieces to lock in my gains but it’s hard as I love my watches. Instagram has attracted more people to the hobby and I think more are collecting today than ever before.
I believe this hobby has everything to do with disposable income and the markets are good now. The markets tend to turn on a dime as will the vintage market IMHO.
It’s impossible to time the market so you got to go with your gut.

Your comment reminds me of the enthusiasm for gold pocket watches in the 80's and Bubblebacks in the 90's... Not only did the enthusiasm pass but the market reset. I sense we're on the cusp of something similar with vintage Rolex sport watches. I'm not suggesting a collapse but that we're peaking. Perhaps followed by a gentle, slow, declining glide path as fashion, tates and enthusiasm moves onto something else... vinyl or cassette tape perhaps?!?

[jfmiii]

look at Bubble Backs and what happened to that market. look at stamps. look at antiques. i know the prevailing 'wisdom' on this board is that prices never go down and there will always be a place for top quality vintage Rolex. the fact is, tastes change with time; 50% price gains per year is unsustainable; high quality fakes can ruin markets.

i purchased a 16750 matte dial 10 years ago for $1750. the reference is worth nearly 10x that amount today. anything that goes up that fast can come down just as quickly. if the price goes to $25k in 2 years and im sitting on a couple watches worth $>50k, would i get more enjoyment out of the watches or a used 911? at some point, i will sell everything if this insanity keeps up.

and i dont care what others on here think, these Veblen goods are going to get hammered during the next recession. there are WAY too many people speculating on these for anything besides a massive correction to occur when the world economy hits the next downturn.

[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

look at Bubble Backs and what happened to that market. look at stamps. look at antiques. i know the prevailing 'wisdom' on this board is that prices never go down and there will always be a place for top quality vintage Rolex. the fact is, tastes change with time; 50% price gains per year is unsustainable; high quality fakes can ruin markets.

i purchased a 16750 matte dial 10 years ago for $1750. the reference is worth nearly 10x that amount today. anything that goes up that fast can come down just as quickly. if the price goes to $25k in 2 years and im sitting on a couple watches worth $>50k, would i get more enjoyment out of the watches or a used 911? at some point, i will sell everything if this insanity keeps up.

and i dont care what others on here think, these Veblen goods are going to get hammered during the next recession. there are WAY too many people speculating on these for anything besides a massive correction to occur when the world economy hits the next downturn.

You raise the issue of the vintage 911... you're spot on with the parallels. I know which would give me more pleasure and more utility. If I cashed out of my watch collection, I could probably just about get into a beat up 968. Unfortunately, I don't have a deposit box big enough to park it in.

None of these vintage and antique collectables are fungible. So when the correction inevitably comes, we'll be left owning pennies on the dollar. The question will be weather you'll still love to wear and drive these things and whether your kids will want them after you're done with them.

[sillo]

Originally Posted by jdmi32

As long as watches retain their spot as the one accessory, or piece of jewelry if you prefer, that is acceptable for men to wear, then I see no change happening. Prices will fluctuate as with all collectibles, but I think the long term trend for vintage Rolex is still bright.

I also disagree that the pool of collectors is shrinking. If anything, the internet has opened the door for many people who otherwise would have never gotten into collecting.

Yes, prices have gone up by an unhealthy amount IMO the past few years. But they also fell sharply during the last financial crises. Long term collectors who collect because they love the watches and ignore the blips in prices are the ones who will get the most out of this hobby.

I have to agree. I'm still new to this, purchased my first nice watch, a 16220, in 2014. Even since then though, I feel like the pool has grown significantly because of social media, specifically Instagram. Many more people are being exposed to these watches than ever before.

I wasn't around the watch market during the recession, and I know the real expensive models dropped significantly, but did it really affect the under 5 figure watches. I've read a from a few people that they more or less just stagnated.

[ravenhome777]

Doubt it. You're just having a bad day.

[R.O.L.E.X]

Originally Posted by scurfa

if your worried about your investment I would just cash in now, my own collection is worth a tidy sum but when I consider cashing in I cannot sell even one because I love them all. enjoy them or walk away.

The less collectible brands will see a lower increase in value over time but Rolex and other highly collected brands will continue to increase in value.

[thomaspp]

I don't think so - stronger than ever in fact. As to restoration of VR, it is what it is. Auction houses are certainly pushing the acceptability of restored watches and in the vintage car collecting community and in art it is much more accepted than in vintage watch collecting. I don't like restoration, but as the hobby grows perhaps restoration will be acceted.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by sillo38

I wasn't around the watch market during the recession, and I know the real expensive models dropped significantly, but did it really affect the under 5 figure watches. I've read a from a few people that they more or less just stagnated.

listen to the Eric Ku podcast on Hodinkee from the other week. he says he had several plastic Daytonas in inventory whose value dropped 50%. there's much more fast money in the market now than 10 years ago. but hey, "Rolex and other highly collected brands will continue to increase in value" in perpetuity.

[SubKing]

Originally Posted by jdmi32

As long as watches retain their spot as the one accessory, or piece of jewelry if you prefer, that is acceptable for men to wear, then I see no change happening. Prices will fluctuate as with all collectibles, but I think the long term trend for vintage Rolex is still bright.

I also disagree that the pool of collectors is shrinking. If anything, the internet has opened the door for many people who otherwise would have never gotten into collecting.

Yes, prices have gone up by an unhealthy amount IMO the past few years. But they also fell sharply during the last financial crises. Long term collectors who collect because they love the watches and ignore the blips in prices are the ones who will get the most out of this hobby.

110% agree and couldn’t have said it better

[sillo]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

listen to the Eric Ku podcast on Hodinkee from the other week. he says he had several plastic Daytonas in inventory whose value dropped 50%. there's much more fast money in the market now than 10 years ago. but hey, "Rolex and other highly collected brands will continue to increase in value" in perpetuity.

I did listen to that, that's why I said the more pedestrian watches, not the top 1%.

[SubKing]

Originally Posted by MorningTundra

.

In 20 years, how many of our kids today will goto a post office to buy a stamp to mail a letter they wrote with their own hand using a fountain pen? Let alone light a cigarette with a solid gold Dunhill table lighter!?
...

This sounds amazing. How could any of that ever go out of style?

Originally Posted by MorningTundra

My point being our interest in collectable vintage things seems to come from their utility and social relevance. I'm not sure my (or any) kids today will have either of those in 20 years. Really think they'll be impressed by a 1680 with tiny red writing that can keep track of the day of the month? Even with an original MK1 or kissing 40 bezel!?! There will be far more mind blowing things for them to obsess over.

OR in 20 years, these little Minuscule details would only be able to be viewed in museums behind bullitprrof glass.. anything is possible. I wouldn’t buy too much into comparing trends with stamps or pens etc..
some things will always be collectible and cool classics like vintage cars and or watches.

For me personally, it was not easy finding the pieces I have in such a crazy market. The amount of time and money spent was not easy. What’s easy is selling them. I don’t have the heart to part with my watches regardless of the market. The day rolex as a company starts struggling, that’s the day I would
Worry about the watch market as a whole. Until that day comes, enjoy your pieces I say.

PS: pocket watches went out because they were replaced with wrist watches, bubble backs went out bc they are smaller in size, also a bit dated in terms of style. However, a 1680 sub for example still looks realavent to the subs being made today. Rolex seems Not to stray too far in terms of design this day in age.

[iliketime]

still after a 1601!

[Dr.Smellody]

Not while I'm still alive!

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by sillo38

I did listen to that, that's why I said the more pedestrian watches, not the top 1%.

fair enough but we are in a different world now. what was a 50k Daytona is now a 100k Daytona. what was a 10k Red Sub is now 25k. prices have gone parabolic. i bought a different 16750 matte for $6750 at the end of 2015. i have no doubt that could i sell it for at least $15k. every other thread on this board pertains to which watch will be worth more in 5 years, what is the most 'undervalued' reference, etc, etc. i dont know when it will end. maybe it ends when Red 1680s are $50k...or $100k. 'the market can remain illogical far longer than you can remain solvent.' but it will end badly. it is a bubble. it has all the hallmarks of one. i wish id bought more but im glad i bought what i did when i did. that being said, at this point, paying $15k for run of the mill vintage sport watches just doesnt appeal to me. the high price just kind of spoils the hunt. the proliferation of high quality fakes scares me. so, to that end, i can appreciate the sentiment expressed in OP's post.

[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by ravenhome777

Doubt it. You're just having a bad day.

You’re probably right... think I’ll just buy another watch


Sent from my cracked, broken hand wound phone. IG @morning_tundra

[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

listen to the Eric Ku podcast on Hodinkee from the other week. he says he had several plastic Daytonas in inventory whose value dropped 50%. there's much more fast money in the market now than 10 years ago. but hey, "Rolex and other highly collected brands will continue to increase in value" in perpetuity.

We shouldn’t equate fast money with genuine collectors. Eric is an outlier as a successful businessman first and foremost and a passionate collector second. He talks the market up like an auctioneer or a hedge fund manager. Unquestionably well informed but vested in rising values.




Sent from my cracked, broken hand wound phone. IG @morning_tundra

[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by SubKing

I wouldn’t buy too much into comparing trends with stamps or pens etc..
some things will always be collectible and cool classics like vintage cars and or watches.
....
PS: pocket watches went out because they were replaced with wrist watches, bubble backs went out bc they are smaller in size, also a bit dated in terms of style.

Interestingly, evidence suggests price and interest in cool collectibles is generational.

Interest in 30’s and 40’s antique cars is in terminal decline; more to do with the age of the enthusiasts than parts availability. Try selling one of these today...

Interest in 50’s and 60’s muscle cars, E-Types, MGs, is declining as fewer boomers can maintain and enjoy them. And their grand kids don’t want them.

Iconic 80’s and 90’s cars are hot with GenXers (911s, 280SLs, Audi Quatros, Lancia Integrales).

There are still enthusiastic collectors of vintage pocket watches but they’re aging and facing the down sizing dilemma. The market for these is shrinking and they can be tough to sell.

I think there are valid parallels...


Sent from my cracked, broken hand wound phone. IG @morning_tundra

[Dr.Smellody]

Originally Posted by MorningTundra

Interestingly, evidence suggests price and interest in cool collectibles is generational.

Interest in 30’s and 40’s antique cars is in terminal decline; more to do with the age of the enthusiasts than parts availability. Try selling one of these today...

Interest in 50’s and 60’s muscle cars, E-Types, MGs, is declining as fewer boomers can maintain and enjoy them. And their grand kids don’t want them.

Iconic 80’s and 90’s cars are hot with GenXers (911s, 280SLs, Audi Quatros, Lancia Integrales).

There are still enthusiastic collectors of vintage pocket watches but they’re aging and facing the down sizing dilemma. The market for these is shrinking and they can be tough to sell.

I think there are valid parallels...


Sent from my cracked, broken hand wound phone. IG @morning_tundra

Probably parallels. The Submariner has been iconic for 65 years now though.... that's a lot of generations of enthusiasts.