The Rolex Forums   The Rolex Watch

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Old 31 July 2021, 09:48 PM   #1
crispyness87
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: Singapore
Posts: 40
Trade 15202st for 5712

Is now the time to buy /trade into a 5712?

Iíve noticed prices of 5711 and AP RO 15202 (given both are now discontinued) are inline with 5712, and in some listings actually surpass 5712. Rightfully or wrongly, one can say 5712 should trade above those 2 watches given the additional complications; and I believe historically, the 5712 always traded above.

Iím thinking seriously of trading my 15202st for a 5712 with some top up. Just a few months ago, this would have been impossible with the 15202 materially behind in price. Assuming a top up of around US$10-15k, I think this will quickly be made back eventually when 5712 gets discontinued.

What do you folks think?
crispyness87 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 31 July 2021, 09:53 PM   #2
JR16
2021 Pledge Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: USA
Posts: 5,332
Is this an investment question or a watch enthusiast question? Are you bored of the 15202 and have always wanted a 5712? If yes, then go for it. If you are trying to make a few bucks, then itís anyoneís guess.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
JR16 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 31 July 2021, 10:04 PM   #3
ts3
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,793
The key question is if you prefer 5712 over 15202. The watches are quite different in terms of look and feel. I for one have never fully warmed up to the Royal Oak but have liked the 3700/5711/5712 ever since they first appeared on my radar in the mid 2000s.
ts3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 31 July 2021, 10:25 PM   #4
crispyness87
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: Singapore
Posts: 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by JR16 View Post
Is this an investment question or a watch enthusiast question? Are you bored of the 15202 and have always wanted a 5712? If yes, then go for it. If you are trying to make a few bucks, then itís anyoneís guess.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
Fair and valid point, to which Iíd say both. As a watch enthusiast, I prefer the 5712. But at the same time, Iím trying to rationalize the monetary aspect of the decision/trade. While we can say we should make decisions purely from a Ďwatch enthusiastí standpoint, 99% of the group (myself included) are constrained by limited resources.

But yeah good point you brought up, hopefully the above makes sense.
crispyness87 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 31 July 2021, 10:34 PM   #5
HMHM
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: MY
Posts: 566
Honestly future value questions are a bit of a hit and miss. No one can predict the future. I do think the 15202 value will surpass the 5712 eventually. Why? Because the 15202 will be the last RO Jumbo with the same exact JLC derived 2121 movement that has been powering the RO Jumbo since the 5402ST. and next year is the official discontinuation of the 15202. So there is still room for the 15202 to go up upon discontinuation next year when it gets replaced by a new 39mm RO Jumbo, likely with an in-house movement with certain improvements like quick set date, screw down crowns and improved water resistance which some might say take away the heritage of the original Jumbo.
HMHM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 31 July 2021, 11:21 PM   #6
crispyness87
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: Singapore
Posts: 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by HMHM View Post
Honestly future value questions are a bit of a hit and miss. No one can predict the future. I do think the 15202 value will surpass the 5712 eventually. Why? Because the 15202 will be the last RO Jumbo with the same exact JLC derived 2121 movement that has been powering the RO Jumbo since the 5402ST. and next year is the official discontinuation of the 15202. So there is still room for the 15202 to go up upon discontinuation next year when it gets replaced by a new 39mm RO Jumbo, likely with an in-house movement with certain improvements like quick set date, screw down crowns and improved water resistance which some might say take away the heritage of the original Jumbo.
Mate. Valid opinion.
crispyness87 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 31 July 2021, 11:49 PM   #7
AK797
2021 Pledge Member
 
AK797's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Real Name: Neil
Location: UK
Watch: ing ships roll in
Posts: 58,144
I prefer the 12 so would trade for it.
AK797 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 31 July 2021, 11:51 PM   #8
brandrea
2021 Bright Blue DJ41 Pledge Member
 
brandrea's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Real Name: Brian (TBone)
Location: canada
Watch: es make me smile
Posts: 51,667
I’d definitely do that trade. I admit, I never understood the 15202
brandrea is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 01:54 AM   #9
7sins
"TRF" Member
 
7sins's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 1,676
Aesthetically speaking, which is subjective I much prefer the 15202 to the 5712 as I prefer the bracelet and clasp on the AP. I do like the 5712 asymmetric dial but being crowded makes it optically look and wear smaller than the 15202 if that is important. From an investment perspective, remember that as prices rise more sellers come into the market which is what we saw with the 15202. I think both of them will rise at a similar % or plateau, the better investment would be a 15202OR. At these dollar prices you should buy what you like knowing that there is a low probability you would lose any money.
__________________
Richard Mille RG RM030 || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP Royal Oak Offshore TI 26480ti || Rolex Daytona WG Meteorite 116509 || Cartier Santos
7sins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 01:59 AM   #10
Token74
2021 Pledge Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Real Name: Vince
Location: England
Watch: Too many!
Posts: 5,150
Love both. No wrong answer.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
__________________
Time is limited, make every second count.

Patek Philippe Nautilus 5990 - AP Royal Oak 15300 - AP Royal Oak 15450 Blue - AP Royal Oak 15450 Silver - AP Royal Oak Offshore 26480 - Royal Oak Offshore 15710 - Rolex Sea Dweller 116600 - Rolex Daytona 116519 - Rolex GMT 126710 BLRO - Omega Speedmaster Reduced - JLC Reverso GMT Moonphase - TAG Microtimer - Dent Pocket Watch - JLC Atmos Phases de lune
Token74 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 02:27 AM   #11
GeraldGentaFan
2021 Pledge Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Real Name: Mark
Location: Europe
Posts: 490
I waited years to get my 15202st but since getting it 2 years ago, it has gotten little wrist time. My 5712 I have had for many more years and never stopped loving it…
GeraldGentaFan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 02:49 AM   #12
Tinka2020
2021 Pledge Member
 
Tinka2020's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2020
Location: UK
Watch: 5172
Posts: 38
Haha two beautiful pieces, I wish you good luck with that decision. 5712 would be my choice though personally Iím bored of the Royal Oak now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Tinka2020 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 05:18 AM   #13
edhahn44
"TRF" Member
 
edhahn44's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2019
Real Name: Eduard
Location: Europe
Posts: 222
Get the 5712; no brainer for me


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
edhahn44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 06:03 AM   #14
chimp98
2021 Pledge Member
 
chimp98's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Real Name: Huy
Location: California
Watch: not enough...
Posts: 34
5712 would be my choice given the more complex movement and aesthetics which I know is subjective. I also don't agree with the assessment that the 15202 will ONLY go up in price due to next year's new model. If AP changes the new model for the better (i.e. screw-down crown, improved water resistance, etc), I think the old model would take a hit in price. Of course these are all speculations but I've always been the camp of buying the watch you like/love to wear rather than as a financial investment. Good luck!

Sent from my SM-G998U1 using Tapatalk
__________________
"The trouble is, you think you have time." - Buddha
2FA activated
chimp98 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 07:30 AM   #15
Uros
"TRF" Member
 
Uros's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Europe
Posts: 308
WouldnítÖ15202 is hall of fame watch and such a beautiful piece


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Uros is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 07:40 AM   #16
VogelPhoenix
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Location: Taiwan
Posts: 883
Quote:
Originally Posted by chimp98 View Post
f AP changes the new model for the better (i.e. screw-down crown, improved water resistance, etc), I think the old model would take a hit in price.
While it's highly likely the new model will be technically superior, I would not expect 15202 prices to take any hit at all, unless there is a general market collapse. The new model will almost certainly be hard to get and I don't see the VIPs that will be served first dumping their previous generation Jumbos. There were various predictions that the new in-house chrono would sink values of the current Royal Oak Chrono - so far prices have only accelerated.

To the OP - to me neither the 15202 or 5712 are really $100k+ watches, but if I had to pick I'd probably make the deal OP is considering.
VogelPhoenix is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 09:05 AM   #17
KBM
2021 Pledge Member
 
KBM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Real Name: K.
Location: 780
Posts: 9,837
Well, you've said you prefer the 5712, so that answers the question. For me, the jumbo crushes the '12, so it's a big NO WAY!

That is to say, this seems like a matter of pure personal preference, as both are great watches.
KBM is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 11:28 AM   #18
JCC296
2021 Pledge Member
 
JCC296's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: California
Posts: 551
In this case...

you don't do any trade but add Keep the 15202st and buy the 5712.
JCC296 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 12:43 PM   #19
7sins
"TRF" Member
 
7sins's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Posts: 1,676
Quote:
Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix View Post
While it's highly likely the new model will be technically superior, I would not expect 15202 prices to take any hit at all, unless there is a general market collapse. The new model will almost certainly be hard to get and I don't see the VIPs that will be served first dumping their previous generation Jumbos. There were various predictions that the new in-house chrono would sink values of the current Royal Oak Chrono - so far prices have only accelerated.

To the OP - to me neither the 15202 or 5712 are really $100k+ watches, but if I had to pick I'd probably make the deal OP is considering.
Totally agree, new 15202 will hit the grey market above current 15202 price, much like the green 5711. That will either stabilize current 15202 pricing or raise values up.
__________________
Richard Mille RG RM030 || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP Royal Oak Offshore TI 26480ti || Rolex Daytona WG Meteorite 116509 || Cartier Santos
7sins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 01:25 PM   #20
uniqueMR
2021 Pledge Member
 
uniqueMR's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2018
Location: USA
Posts: 3,393
Patek
__________________
A. Lange & Sohne 1815 Chronograph 414.028, Odysseus 363.038
Breitling Navitimer AB012012
Jaeger-LeCoultre Chronograph 4138420
Oris Aquis Date, Carysfort Reef
Omega Seamaster Diver 300M
Patek Philippe Annual Calendar 5235R, Chronograph 5905R, Perpetual Calendar 5320G, Travel Time 5524R
Rolex Day Date 228235, Daytona 116500LN, Daytona 116506, Deepsea 126660, GMT 126710BLRO, Sky Dweller 326238, Sub Date 116610LV
Vacheron Constantin Overseas 4500V, Overseas 5500V, Overseas 7900V
uniqueMR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 01:34 PM   #21
underpar31009
2021 Pledge Member
 
underpar31009's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Real Name: Ryan
Location: USA
Watch: AP
Posts: 247
15202 all day for me. It is my favorite in my collection.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
underpar31009 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 01:38 PM   #22
subtona
2021 Bright Blue DJ41-2 Pledge Member
 
subtona's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Real Name: gus
Location: East Coast
Watch: APK & sometimes Y
Posts: 24,090
Absolutely would make that trade.
__________________
subtona is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 04:53 PM   #23
bearxj86
2021 Pledge Member
 
bearxj86's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Los Angeles
Watch: 3970
Posts: 3,135
Very close one - I personally would go with the 12 but both is the answer. They are that good.

Mines the 3712 and my 202 is IP but very similar.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
__________________
Instagram - @watchyogabballchess (I do not have any other IG accounts)
bearxj86 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 06:17 PM   #24
ragsk
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: UK
Posts: 1,398
Quote:
Originally Posted by bearxj86 View Post
Very close one - I personally would go with the 12 but both is the answer. They are that good.

Mines the 3712 and my 202 is IP but very similar.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I have the same 15202IP and the 5712. If I could only own one it would the the 5712. But thankfully I don't have to make that choice.
ragsk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 07:41 PM   #25
liljctl
2021 Pledge Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: Mildura
Posts: 361
Quote:
Originally Posted by crispyness87 View Post
Is now the time to buy /trade into a 5712?



Iíve noticed prices of 5711 and AP RO 15202 (given both are now discontinued) are inline with 5712, and in some listings actually surpass 5712. Rightfully or wrongly, one can say 5712 should trade above those 2 watches given the additional complications; and I believe historically, the 5712 always traded above.



Iím thinking seriously of trading my 15202st for a 5712 with some top up. Just a few months ago, this would have been impossible with the 15202 materially behind in price. Assuming a top up of around US$10-15k, I think this will quickly be made back eventually when 5712 gets discontinued.



What do you folks think?
I picked mine up in 2019 before it went crazy. No boutiques in Australia, I had to fly to SEA.

Fully stickered, I haven't worn it yet - unlike the 571xs, I have just not been tempted to do so. IMG_20190327_175437.jpg

Sent from my SM-G985F using Tapatalk
liljctl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 07:46 PM   #26
Tinka2020
2021 Pledge Member
 
Tinka2020's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2020
Location: UK
Watch: 5172
Posts: 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by liljctl View Post
I picked mine up in 2019 before it went crazy. No boutiques in Australia, I had to fly to SEA.

Fully stickered, I haven't worn it yet - unlike the 571xs, I have just not been tempted to do so. Attachment 1236160

Sent from my SM-G985F using Tapatalk

Thatís a shame itís to be enjoyed. That is something I have never gotten, buying a watch to just keep in the safe but then I donít have the funds to not enjoy what I purchase.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Tinka2020 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 07:48 PM   #27
liljctl
2021 Pledge Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2015
Location: Mildura
Posts: 361
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tinka2020 View Post
Thatís a shame itís to be enjoyed. That is something I have never gotten, buying a watch to just keep in the safe but then I donít have the funds to not enjoy what I purchase.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I enjoy owning it. Ticks off a box.



Sent from my SM-G985F using Tapatalk
liljctl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 07:52 PM   #28
Tinka2020
2021 Pledge Member
 
Tinka2020's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2020
Location: UK
Watch: 5172
Posts: 38
Quote:
Originally Posted by liljctl View Post
I enjoy owning it. Ticks off a box.



Sent from my SM-G985F using Tapatalk

Haha I am sure you do itís a beautiful piece


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Tinka2020 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 1 August 2021, 11:33 PM   #29
cascavel
2021 Pledge Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Santa Fe
Posts: 1,295
Quote:
Originally Posted by liljctl View Post
I enjoy owning it. Ticks off a box.



Sent from my SM-G985F using Tapatalk
You are not alone. A quick glance at pics of APs and Pateks posted on this site will reveal many pristine pieces. And, keep in mind, these are billed as scratch magnets, yet, few exist with scratches.
cascavel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2 August 2021, 02:05 AM   #30
gilluminati204
"TRF" Member
 
gilluminati204's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: Canada eh
Watch: RolexRolexRolex
Posts: 134
The Twelve for me

Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk
gilluminati204 is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

DavidSW Watches
*Banners Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.





Copyright ©2004-2021, The Rolex Forums. All Rights Reserved.

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Rolex is a registered trademark of ROLEX USA. The Rolex Forums is not affiliated with ROLEX USA in any way.