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Old 29 January 2020, 09:56 AM   #1
mgsooner
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Icon4 the Coronavirus outbreak thread

I searched and did not locate an existing thread about this, beyond those essentially asking “will this outbreak get me a Daytona quicker?” J/K. Sort of.

Anyway, I figure it’s high time for a thread. This evening’s development:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/whit...-outbreak.html
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Old 29 January 2020, 10:19 AM   #2
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https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=721721

No there isn’t a thread on this buddy
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Old 29 January 2020, 10:31 AM   #3
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John Hopkins has a dashboard updated daily

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Old 30 January 2020, 02:47 AM   #4
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John Hopkins has a dashboard updated daily

Interesting
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Old 29 January 2020, 10:44 AM   #5
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Reuters update

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKBN1ZR0CF
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Old 29 January 2020, 11:39 AM   #6
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I really hope they're able to up the current efforts and try prevent the spread of this virus. With conformed cases in Canada it opened my eyes. I'm always using lysol wipes, frequently washing my hands, avoid touching my face, etc anyway.
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Old 29 January 2020, 12:27 PM   #7
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The number of infected people has gone up exponentially over the past few days. Here is a graph showing comparison between Wuhan virus and SARS.
ggVLpmQ_d.jpg

I have read a Xinhua report that this virus is transmitted mainly through air droplets, but touching can also spread the virus.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/202..._138739435.htm
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Old 29 January 2020, 12:33 PM   #8
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The number of infected people has gone up exponentially over the past few days. Here is a graph showing comparison between Wuhan virus and SARS.
Attachment 1105392

I have read a Xinhua report that this virus is transmitted mainly through air droplets, but touching can also spread the virus.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/202..._138739435.htm
Itís accellerating
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Old 29 January 2020, 12:47 PM   #9
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Itís accellerating
Yep, the yellow vertical line is disturbing. I wish all those infected people speedy recovery.
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Old 31 January 2020, 04:27 AM   #10
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I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol

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Itís accellerating
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Old 31 January 2020, 04:42 AM   #11
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I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol
Aren't you overreacting just a little bit? US residents are urged to carry on their daily life activities and not be concerned. There are only a handful of cases so far and the CDC is on top of it. There are no deaths in the US.
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Old 31 January 2020, 04:53 AM   #12
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I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol
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Old 31 January 2020, 06:27 AM   #13
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Old 31 January 2020, 06:31 AM   #14
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I'm the one who should be worried. Ninja's friends are all Jewish and my neighbors are, for the most part, Chinese. I'd start wearing one of those masks around the condo area but I'm afraid it would offend someone. lol
every time I go back to Irvine I feel the same way and that happens to be where the reported case is.
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Old 29 January 2020, 12:50 PM   #15
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Am I the only one not worried??
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Old 29 January 2020, 12:52 PM   #16
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Am I the only one not worried??
Easy to say from the USA. Put yourself in their shoes.
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Old 30 January 2020, 03:09 PM   #17
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Am I the only one not worried??
I am not.

People call the spread of the coronavirus "exponential," and there's just so, so much wrong with that (simply because something is non-linear doesn't make it exponential).

Refer back to the SARS spread figure from earlier in the thread and compare the shape of that curve to this one.

Also, people fail to take into consideration the coronavirus' mortality rate and how it compares with... you know, the general flu.
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Old 2 February 2020, 07:51 AM   #18
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Am I the only one not worried??
you're not alone bud
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Old 3 February 2020, 08:43 PM   #19
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Am I the only one not worried??
Have to agree although this Coronavirus is a serous problem lets get things into perspective.Around 291,000 to as many as 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each and every year.
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Old 3 February 2020, 09:08 PM   #20
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Have to agree although this Coronavirus is a serous problem lets get things into perspective.Around 291,000 to as many as 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each and every year.
Personally, what's worrying me is the fact that seasonal flu has a mortality rate of around 0.1%. Right now Wuhan virus' mortality rate is around 2-3%. That difference, together with it spreading like wildfire, is huge.
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Old 4 February 2020, 11:53 PM   #21
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Have to agree although this Coronavirus is a serous problem lets get things into perspective.Around 291,000 to as many as 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each and every year.
Some people love to panic

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Old 4 February 2020, 11:59 PM   #22
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Some people love to panic
Really? The Chinese Government loves to panic?
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Old 5 February 2020, 12:06 AM   #23
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Really? The Chinese Government loves to panic?
Check the chart, look at the facts. IMHO China is playing catch up and is far more embarrassed than scared.
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Old 5 February 2020, 12:06 AM   #24
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Some people love to panic

Still need to consider the mortality rate is 2-3x influenza. So if the same amount of people contract this, the mortality numbers will swell beyond influenza fatalities. Most of these would likely be in China and lesser developed countries.

Still too early to determine if there is panic or not. This thing needs to peak out before that assessment can accurately be made.
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Old 5 February 2020, 12:14 AM   #25
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Some people love to panic

We canít compare this to the flu anymore. Mortality rate is more than 3X and itís more contagious. Wuhan Coronavirus can now spread three different ways, air, fecal and surface (up to 5 days.) All qualified.
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Old 5 February 2020, 02:39 AM   #26
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We canít compare this to the flu anymore. Mortality rate is more than 3X and itís more contagious. Wuhan Coronavirus can now spread three different ways, air, fecal and surface (up to 5 days.) All qualified.

The Novel Coronavirus will likely transmit as many viral pathogens do - using a host cell from every possible source.

Iíd like to mention that the increasing rate of cases is accelerating much faster than the rate of deaths.

We will see the lethality shrink as we get control over the mortality despite sharp increases in cases.

Canít really rely on only 17,000 cases as a denominator to yield a forward-looking mortality rate. Note that the other comparable outbreaks have millions of cases over a years time

When we have a yearís worth of Novel CV data I believe the observed mortality will be closer to the flu than SARS or MERS.


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Old 8 February 2020, 06:51 PM   #27
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the Coronavirus outbreak thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laszlo View Post
We canít compare this to the flu anymore. Mortality rate is more than 3X and itís more contagious. Wuhan Coronavirus can now spread three different ways, air, fecal and surface (up to 5 days.) All qualified.


Surface? 5 days? Where did you get that from? Any source? Really want to know.

CDC says:

Itís currently unclear if a person can get 2019-nCoV by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes.

And the virus is supposed to only survive outside of the body a few minutes to hours but not days.
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Old 29 February 2020, 01:51 AM   #28
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Have to agree although this Coronavirus is a serous problem lets get things into perspective.Around 291,000 to as many as 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each and every year.
For us worrywarts .... this is the post you need to remember the most. In the U.S. alone, about 60,000 people die every year from the flu, and many of us don't even get the vaccine!

Good to be cautious and careful, of course, but people, can we please stop the panic!? The hype and fear-mongering are out of control.
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Old 29 February 2020, 02:29 AM   #29
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For us worrywarts .... this is the post you need to remember the most. In the U.S. alone, about 60,000 people die every year from the flu, and many of us don't even get the vaccine!

Good to be cautious and careful, of course, but people, can we please stop the panic!? The hype and fear-mongering are out of control.
The flu kills about 14 people per 100,000 cases in the US.

With a ~3.5% mortality rate, coronavirus would be ~3,500 deaths per 100,000 cases

I was talking about this with friends last night. Those rates are vastly different and our experience will be nothing like the flu. Iím 37 and lucky enough to not know anyone whoís died from the flu. The 2 friends I was talking to last night also didnít know anyone who died from the flu. You also canít catch the same strain of the flu more than once.

I believe our experience to be different with this when corona really hits due to the rates and fact a person can get it more than once. I hypothesize that we'll all know someone who dies from this before itís all said and done

The US is basically dong nothing for prevention

Donít panic, but itís very possible that we experience a societal paradigm shift once this really gets going
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Old 29 February 2020, 03:12 AM   #30
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The flu kills about 14 people per 100,000 cases in the US.



With a ~3.5% mortality rate, coronavirus would be ~3,500 deaths per 100,000 cases



I was talking about this with friends last night. Those rates are vastly different and our experience will be nothing like the flu. Iím 37 and lucky enough to not know anyone whoís died from the flu. The 2 friends I was talking to last night also didnít know anyone who died from the flu. You also canít catch the same strain of the flu more than once.



I believe our experience to be different with this when corona really hits due to the rates and fact a person can get it more than once. I hypothesize that we'll all know someone who dies from this before itís all said and done



The US is basically dong nothing for prevention



Donít panic, but itís very possible that we experience a societal paradigm shift once this really gets going


Well put. A lot of these too cool to care posts will not age well.
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