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15 January 2019, 12:52 PM | #1 |
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The pricing trend is a bit shocking
I've noticed the pricing trend of a lot of swiss brands has substantially upticked to the point where it seems absurd. Perhaps the market can absorb it but I would not be shocked to see either a substantial downturn in the market or large discounts.
SIHH this year has opened my eyes a bit to say, really that much for that? Some of it makes sense but most of it doesnt. So much so that looking at over retail for a rolex piece seems like a better purchase. Now I get some are limited releases so it makes sense. I am just wondering if innovation pushing the prices higher is really sustainable. Especially when some of the larger brands are going for value plays and even some smaller brand like UN are doing scaled down versions of prior releases like the freak. Does anyone feel the same way or have thoughts? Maybe I am wrong....
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15 January 2019, 12:57 PM | #2 |
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Prices are surely going up. I’d have thought it would have pushed people out of the market but that doesn’t seem to be the case.
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15 January 2019, 01:02 PM | #3 |
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Well I may be wrong. I usually am.
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15 January 2019, 01:19 PM | #4 |
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There is a lot of absence of value these days Eliot. I’ll stick with my Tudors.
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15 January 2019, 01:31 PM | #5 |
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Highly inflated from a-z
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15 January 2019, 04:59 PM | #6 |
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For sure. Grand Seiko is a nice cave to hide in during the storm.
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15 January 2019, 05:37 PM | #7 |
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A counter-example would be IWC‘s pilot watches.
The Spitfire with own movement (finally) for $4350 is a great offer and so is the Chronograph with own movement for $ 5700 |
16 January 2019, 04:50 AM | #8 |
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The rising tide floats all boats. Economies are doing well and more people have spare money to burn. I don't see things slowing down in the watch world until the economy slows. Personally, I would rather see the economy do well.
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16 January 2019, 05:07 AM | #9 |
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its almost like its more desirable because its expensive. Some of the Panerai's this year seem insane. Not even counting the LE's which include experiences like diving with the italian navy. Thats kind of cool as if you are into that as people pay all kinds of money for once in a life time experiences anyway. That im more OK with.
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16 January 2019, 08:10 AM | #10 | |
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16 January 2019, 09:24 AM | #11 |
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16 January 2019, 09:32 AM | #12 | |
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It is refreshing to see IWC release their watches with in-house movements and not jack the price up 3x. I think this year will be a "win" for them based off of the releases at SIHH. |
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16 January 2019, 09:49 AM | #13 |
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I just saw that. Also, note the totally wearable 41mm in the chrono. Very good possibility I may flip my navitimer for that one.
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16 January 2019, 09:49 AM | #14 |
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16 January 2019, 10:06 AM | #15 | |
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With that level of case, dial and hand finish, I can't find anything with a "Swiss Made" on it that I can afford .. LOL
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16 January 2019, 10:23 AM | #16 |
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I know they wanted 6.50 for a mini toblerone
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16 January 2019, 10:40 AM | #17 |
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I agree. That said, I’m glad I bought my Rolex watches before all the craziness.
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16 January 2019, 11:31 AM | #18 |
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16 January 2019, 12:38 PM | #19 | ||
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That’s a good one. Was my intro to the brand and that dial is somenting else
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But if you want to go back to the days of being able to source your watch right away with a small discount and being happy, GS is a good option!
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16 January 2019, 04:14 PM | #20 |
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SIHH has been very interesting in the fact that for the upper-echelon brands, only VC and (to a lesser extent) AP offered anything remotely "affordable". And even then, $26k for the three-hander CODE is somewhat laughable. JLC released something like 4 watches with the cheapest being about $36k. Lange released five watches; the cheapest being the LE Lange 1 for something like 43k euros.
I see major problems ahead. |
17 January 2019, 03:45 AM | #21 | |
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JLC I agree with you. I haven't seen any other releases from them at SIHH and they're all in the super high price range when most of their watches are usually in the under $10k bracket. |
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17 January 2019, 04:26 AM | #22 | |
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Let’s break it down. AP makes about 40k watches a year, VC makes about 26k watcher per year, ALS makes about 6k watches per year (roughly). I’ll leave JLC aside for now because the majority of their watches are relatively affordable compared to the three mentioned. So total annual production of these three brands is c 72k watches per year. There are roughly over 16 million millionaires globally today. If 1% decide to buy a high end watch per year, that covers all 72k mentioned above plus Patek’s 50-60k annual production with some change to spare. The only reason to be concerned is if this group of people decides to stop spending for whatever reason. Just a thought. |
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17 January 2019, 05:42 AM | #23 | |
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17 January 2019, 05:56 AM | #24 |
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17 January 2019, 09:08 AM | #25 | |
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Good luck selling anyone that watch at msrp lest they are simply buying the brand. An ap diver can be had for under 13k used. This watch is double....
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17 January 2019, 09:33 AM | #26 | |
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It really is just a normal and very predictable bubble that happens all the time about every 10 years. Your best bet is waiting for the next big crash cycle and buy up cheap as people scramble to pay for loans, leverage losses in the market Etc
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17 January 2019, 09:52 AM | #27 |
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17 January 2019, 10:43 AM | #28 |
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17 January 2019, 11:31 AM | #29 |
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17 January 2019, 11:41 AM | #30 | |
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Quote:
VC's SIHH lineup included a couple of new blue dial Patrimony ($19k and $27k), and blue dials for the '56 range (the Complete Calendar ($23k) looks really nice and it has the Hallmark of Geneva certification). Lange has a number of watches under $35k (a number of Saxonia, 1815 range, Lange 1). However, for SIHH the cheapest is the LE Lange 1 at 43k euros. JLC did release the red dial Reverso, but did not bother including it in the SIHH releases on its website. Compared to previous SIHH, the new watches do seem to be priced higher this year. As such, I agree with the OP. |
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