5167A Price Drop Maybe?

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by Passionata

yes some ppl get pneumonia but 80% of the infected has no or very mild symptoms , i don t say ppl should get infected I only say that I rather do my daily routine and counting with the consequences than stay in a room at home , bust the company and make my ppl broke.

Again: “Counting with the consequences” can kill people. Please be responsible.

[Passionata]

Originally Posted by Bosscheto

Not at all. You apply for partial chomage - which is up to 40% at best, and if you are a high earner - u have a high chance to get refused.

I would not blame them, if the government needs to pay me half the salary, they can feed 5-6 workers with this amount of money on 100%. It is a complicated issue, lets wait and see. My company has applied, but informed us, that if we are rejected - we will go for a voluntary salary cut and the highest earnest will cut more. The idea is for 3 months, to avoid firings.

It is a very weird fucking thing, so different than 2009. We all are eager to work and to travel, and we know, that if we manage to absorb this cost, we will hit the ground running - like a pack of dogs waiting to be unleashed.

On the other hand, if we are forbidden to fly because Switzerland is so massively infected, one of the highest per capita, our business is international. I can't believe that a bat shat on a snake, and some idiot ate it, and we are all in this shit right now.

well the EU and WHO f....d up ,ban on air travel in January after the first news came out and push ppl to quarantine for 14 days and the whole world saved ,well they chose option 2 , a plague for minimum 8-12 months and an economic disaster .

[dmb359]

I don't think they will drop a whole lot with the production stoppage, and dealers sitting on product to wait this out. Mid 20's possibly, but those are typically a little older, more wear, no B&P, and things like that. I don't think like new full set with bracelet will reach those prices.

[Bosscheto]

Originally Posted by dmb359

I don't think they will drop a whole lot with the production stoppage, and dealers sitting on product to wait this out. Mid 20's possibly, but those are typically a little older, more wear, no B&P, and things like that. I don't think like new full set with bracelet will reach those prices.

I disagree completely, I think the whole strategy of entry level watches over MSRP is dead. They will have to move the focus on a different section. Dealers will be bankrupt, it is not only the hot models, people will stop buying watches in general for a while. Some AD's will not make it, or will fire lots of people. Jewlery and other form of celebratory gifts are going down big time. So if the only thing that can keep them afloat is selling SS watches, they will sell SS watches.

Patek has been in crisis before, they will be here after, but they make what 1.5 bln CHF a year (not official, because it is a family owned and run company), AP crossed the 1 billion mark this year - so slash 30-40% of this, and keep the same cost.

Do the math, why sit on cash or just give the AD's what they can sell to save the business. The grey dealers are speculators, those who stacked lots of watches and have little liquidity are in trouble, those who have little watches and liquidity are ok.

Do not forget these are mass produced watches - not a Philippe Dufour Simplicity. There are a lot of safe queens, a lot of owners who bought for the resell value, will sell now.

My opinion is, at the end of this year - GMTS, Aquanauts, high end Nautiluses will be on MSRP, and the 5711 and the Daytonas will have like a year waiting time.

On the secondary market I expect all Rolexes around MSRP with the exception of the Daytona, with up to the 50K Pateks, only the 5711 or any new interesting releases (who will come 2021) will trade above MSRP on the secondary market.

The big issue is purchasing power, the market will clear speculators, and you will have harmed watch lovers.

It depends a lot the current perseption where you are. I am locked down in Switzerland, it is very difficult to imagine buying a watch, when you are not sure of keeping your job, paying the kid school fee and the mortgage.

[CHEY]

Originally Posted by dmb359

I don't think they will drop a whole lot with the production stoppage, and dealers sitting on product to wait this out. Mid 20's possibly, but those are typically a little older, more wear, no B&P, and things like that. I don't think like new full set with bracelet will reach those prices.

This obviously assumes that dealers have the financial health to "wait this out."

I don't question that some do. But I don't think every dealer can afford to wait this out without running into cash and liquidity problems. As soon as a dealer budges and lowers prices, the lowered prices become the new market prices.

The longer the virus situation lasts, the longer the dealers are forced to wait it out, and the more likely an increased number of dealers will need to sell at lower prices to meet their cash flow obligations.

A reputable dealer just legitimately offered me good condition 2015 5712/1A with box and paper for USD55,000. That sounds to me like a whole of reduction from peak prices.

Some dealers on this forum still quotes USD75,000 for a used 5712/1A. Well, to them, my question is, "What have you been smoking?" Coz whatever it is, it sure is trippy!

[pam66]

Originally Posted by Passionata

yes some ppl get pneumonia but 80% of the infected has no or very mild symptoms , i don t say ppl should get infected I only say that I rather do my daily routine and counting with the consequences than stay in a room at home , bust the company and make my ppl broke.

George, the issue with that attitude is that you infect (with all the potentially serious consequences) many other people.
the virus will be here long term but in 12-18 months we shall have a rather effective vaccine and on a much shorter time scale there will be an antiviral/anti-inflammatory treatment.
a well known german virologist was asked whether he prefers to catch the virus now or in six months. his answer was "no doubt, in six months".

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by pam66

George, the issue with that attitude is that you infect (with all the potentially serious consequences) many other people.
the virus will be here long term but in 12-18 months we shall have a rather effective vaccine and on a much shorter time scale there will be an antiviral/anti-inflammatory treatment.
a well known german virologist was asked whether he prefers to catch the virus now or in six months. his answer was "no doubt, in six months".

I don't want to catch it at all.
But yeah to flatten the curve, drag this out and we will beat this with science!

[pam66]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I don't want to catch it at all.
But yeah to flatten the curve, drag this out and we will beat this with science!

exactly. we have to pay a price but the economy will come up again.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I don't want to catch it at all.
But yeah to flatten the curve, drag this out and we will beat this with science!

Originally Posted by pam66

exactly. we have to pay a price but the economy will come up again.

[pam66]

Originally Posted by Passionata

well the EU and WHO f....d up ,ban on air travel in January after the first news came out and push ppl to quarantine for 14 days and the whole world saved ,well they chose option 2 , a plague for minimum 8-12 months and an economic disaster .

that is clearly correct. we all watched wuhan as if it was on a different planet.

[offrdmania]

Can we get back onto topic please

[Watchflair]

Lol entertaining read. I hope he's right - I'd love to see these gems at MSRP or close to it - not going to happen IMHO.

[gqmagic]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

Why? Because utilizing grays makes much more sense for many people, particularly in the case of Pateks. The question I always ask is why should somebody buy 2 or 3 watches at outrageous MSRP prices (Complications, Grand Complications, or most Calatravas) just to MAYBE get on a list to get a Nautilus or an Aquanaut?

Going down this path, you'd be likely to take a 40%+ hit on the watches you bought to build a relationship, and there is absolutely no guarantee you'll get the watch you really want.

I always recommend people do the math. If you just want 1 or 2 of the hotter models, build a relationship with a gray that you trust. It almost certainly will work out in your favor.

Anyone doing what you said doesn't have a relationship, they're just a customer.

Anyone with a relationship isn't paying retail for anything.

[gqmagic]

Originally Posted by Russell996

Building a relationship with an AD doesn’t mean buying anything you don’t want.

Exactly

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by offrdmania

Can we get back onto topic please

I haven't been watching the 5167a too closely, but the 5164a sure is heading south. This was to be my next watch, but I'm on the sidelines now and have a self imposed "nothing in unless something goes out" rule and now's not the time to be bidding adieu...

The 5164a was consistently at $52k to $55k, and sometimes even a bit higher. I'm getting daily alerts from WatchRecon and it's down now to $47k to $49k. All complete with B/P, and conditions are very good. I'm relatively certain $45k would take any of them.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by gqmagic

Anyone doing what you said doesn't have a relationship, they're just a customer.

Anyone with a relationship isn't paying retail for anything.

I am not sure why this keeps coming up. I've never debated this - I'm merely trying to suggest that building a relationship isn't always easy to do for a host of reasons. Sometimes that's an issue with the AD, and sometimes it's an issue for the potential customer.

Because of this, going into the secondary market is a very viable (and in some cases, intelligent) option.

[BaselWorld]

Of course these are going down, but not near MSRP; Patek will supply even less and when I look at the Dow right now, people also have enough to pay them.

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by Bosscheto

I can't believe that a bat shat on a snake, and some idiot ate it, and we are all in this shit right now.

This might be the funniest thing I've read all day.

[scurfa]

Someone has just paid 75,000 CHF plus fees for a 5711 2016 and a 5712 2014 sold for the same money at Sotheby’s online auction, that about £64k plus fees



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[Humble michael]

Originally Posted by Passionata

tbh my plan is to get infected asap then i will die or survive not really care , but i wont sit at home waiting in a lock down .LD it s fine for elderly ppl or others with immune deficiency but for the rest of the world the only solution to get infected sooner or later since the virus stays here forever .

Really George ??! So it wouldn’t bother you to be responsible for many others suffering from and some dying from this terrible disease ?? Are you really serious?

[Mjack1]

Originally Posted by offrdmania

Anyone think the 5167A will drop down to its 2018 prices of high teens to low 20s price range?
I have seen $29K so far. Fingers crossed so I can pick one up finally. Im not willing to pay high 20s or low 30s for an entry level stainless watch.

You just have to keep your fingers crossed to see what happens hoping it drop a little, but not expecting something much though.

[theflywrist]

Originally Posted by Passionata

tbh my plan is to get infected asap then i will die or survive not really care , but i wont sit at home waiting in a lock down .LD it s fine for elderly ppl or others with immune deficiency but for the rest of the world the only solution to get infected sooner or later since the virus stays here forever .

Very selfish of you to neglect the fact that you could easily infect others who have elderly parents or others with immune deficiencies at home.
Though the elderly are more at risk, even a young and healthy person is easily vulnerable when hospitals are saturated.
Read an article how currently more people are dying in Spain due to lack of medical team/equipment(oxygen) amongst other things than the virus itself.

Genuinely hope this was some sort of lame joke you were making. Be safe

[offrdmania]

Come on everyone, there is already a Corona virus thread going. Please stick to the topic.

[bob101]

Originally Posted by scurfa

Someone has just paid 75,000 CHF plus fees for a 5711 2016 and a 5712 2014 sold for the same money at Sotheby’s online auction, that about £64k plus fees



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As good a price as I’ve seen in the last few years even after sellers commission,

[offrdmania]

Most likely an ill informed impulse buyer

[Mrngrz46]

Originally Posted by Bosscheto

I would wait to see what happens when the AD's open. They have already admitted that they will fire people, so there will be fire sales of inventory as well. (Source, Hodinkee newsletter from yesterday.

In Switzerland the government will subsidies up to 50% of employee salaries for a trimester to help avoid mass sackings. Yesterday, officially the government announced that the demands for financial support have greatly increased the peak of demands of 2008 - 2009.

Here, the financial crisis is expected to be far worse than the last crisis, so my expectation is, that all those hot entry level watches will become entry level watches.

You have massive financial pressure on gray dealers, massive pressure on retailers, and do not forget that Patek will lose minimum of 40% of its revenues this year thanks to COVID 19, while keeping its costs, which are highly fixed anyway. On top of this, Baselworld kept the money for participation because it did not cancel but only postponed the event.

If you have waited for an Aquanaut, (like I have) wait a bit more. I am officially rejecting mine because I have lost 20% of my salary, and no bonus for 2021 so far, and my boss is fighting for not letting people off. Our company has applied for the financial aid, and we hope to get it, otherwise I will get only 60% of my salary, and these calculations include full restart of economic activity by September 1, which is optimistic. For the record, I could have bought my Aquanaut on MSRP in the last 2 years of waiting any month on my credit card and clearing the debt on the next month with zero problem.

Interesting your point of view. I also live in Swiss so I can easily do the math. Since you show off a bit (sorry to say) with your credit capability I assume you could buy it even if now you are scared because of situation.

[Jamesd20]

Originally Posted by offrdmania

Most likely an ill informed impulse buyer

Or a well informed manufacturer 🙄

[offrdmania]

Originally Posted by Jamesd20

Or a well informed manufacturer 🙄

Are you saying that Patek is buying pieces back at higher prices hoping to push the market back up?

[scurfa]

Originally Posted by Jamesd20

Or a well informed manufacturer

I had to stop myself saying this!


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[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by CHEY

This obviously assumes that dealers have the financial health to "wait this out." I don't question that some do. But I don't think every dealer can afford to wait this out without running into cash and liquidity problems. As soon as a dealer budges and lowers prices, the lowered prices become the new market prices. The longer the virus situation lasts, the longer the dealers are forced to wait it out, and the more likely an increased number of dealers will need to sell at lower prices to meet their cash flow obligations.

Absolutely. 100% agree.