Publicly-traded Cannabis Industry Companies

[bing240sx]

Keep an eye on EMC. they hit their ATL and today announced a supply deal with shoppers drug mart... they bumped 9% but if this bear trend continues it's possible they'll keep dropping.

i already have a fair bit of EMC so i'm not a buyer there.

watching how ALEF performs since it resumed trading (used to be CMM).

and yes, APH is a definite buy in there.

canntrust also put out a really nice full year report today with $20M in revenues. I wish i had of gotten into these guys when they ipo'd last year. Their up 400% since then even with a healthy pull back.

[Carrera911]

Almost 40% down on my portfolio, is anybody still hanging on with these stocks or am I the only one left holding the candle ?

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Carrera911

Almost 40% down on my portfolio, is anybody still hanging on with these stocks or am I the only one left holding the candle ?

I am down 32%.

Holding. Not going anywhere. I am still confident.

I am not a day trader. I am all about the long term, and I just dont see how these stocks won't go up in value in the long term.

Granted, I am basically clueless in terms of the stock markets. But I just dont see this going any other way.

You sell now, you lose. You hold, well...maybe you win big. I am hoping for the latter.

[Brenngun]

I was originally top heavy (80% of my position) on Aphria but sold it for a wash a couple of weeks ago. The remaining 5 stocks I have are down about 20% but I'm going to let them ride it out. Likely to jump back into Aphria at some point

[mcorliss]

Originally Posted by Brenngun

I was originally top heavy (80% of my position) on Aphria but sold it for a wash a couple of weeks ago. The remaining 5 stocks I have are down about 20% but I'm going to let them ride it out. Likely to jump back into Aphria at some point

I’ve scaled back into 100k shares of Aphria, but unfortunately my average cost is about $9.03/share. Tempted to deploy more cash to add to the position here, but dangerous to catch a falling knife. You kind of have to play the long game on this sector. Sentiment is pretty dinged up right now, but this shall pass with time. Stocks need to bottom again and build a new more solid base. Let’s hope for a technical bounce.

[bing240sx]

haha, this is awesome. :)

[Dan Pierce]

Originally Posted by superdog

I am down 32%.

Holding. Not going anywhere. I am still confident.

I am not a day trader. I am all about the long term, and I just dont see how these stocks won't go up in value in the long term.

Granted, I am basically clueless in terms of the stock markets. But I just dont see this going any other way.

You sell now, you lose. You hold, well...maybe you win big. I am hoping for the latter.

Same boat.
dP

[Mosco]

Originally Posted by bing240sx

haha, this is awesome. :)

Define ‘awesome’

[Baco Noir]

I'm only down 6% right now, but expect it to slide further as the market as a whole is uneasy at this time and speculative plays get hit harder when the weak hearted decide to pull out. I'll see how far it slide and decide whether to sell some other holding to add to the Cannabis holdings towards the bottom. I do believe they will come back.

[denmanproject]

Looking like a good time to step back into APH

[mcorliss]

Originally Posted by denmanproject

Looking like a good time to step back into APH

Totally agree. Except, problem is, none of us will likely commit while it’s still down in the $7s, then kick themselves about not having backed up the truck once it crests $13-14 again in about 6 weeks. That’s the way of investing...one part genius, four parts self-doubt and fear. Just to remind everyone, it is always darkest before the dawn.

BTW...the June 7th Senate Vote is only 58 days away. I tend to think we’ll get a decent rally leading up to it, or worst case scenario, at least a technical bounce off its secondary support level at $7.

[bing240sx]

Originally Posted by Mosco

Define ‘awesome’

anyone with balls of steel right now will make big money this year.

not sure when i last mentioned it in here but all of my buys around this time last year when the market dipped turned into my 5 and 6 baggers earlier this year. they have since walked back to 3 baggers but they are driving my gains. CRON is one of them, in at $2.53 CAD last year... it knifed further to $1.99 i believe so there was much pain but even with it at $7 CAD right now i have no issues.

EMH is another, i got in at $1.32... it peaked over $9... it's since more than halved but last years dip was kind to buyers. This one will be too.

As mentioned, on EMC, they have more than half of their market cap in cash right now. I am not up to speed on the latest DD on many of the companies and their revenue positions but everything has pulled back 50% or more from their highs a couple months ago... sure some may not return to those highs but many will blow right past them inside the calendar year.

I sat all summer last year upside down a bit and didn't shake one share out until October when i sold WEED, APH and ACB way too soon.

Strong hands ya'll

[roaddog359]

I am still in Aphria and Hydropothecary for the long haul. Win or loose in to deep to pull out now. For now I hope to break even by legalization. But wishing for $25.00 sp by then. We will see! This sector has me all confused. When I read good things and think it will go up, the stock tanks. When I think we hit a bottom, it tanks more. I cant win! So I am long and strong do or die! LOL.

[SMD]

Not sure why everyone thinks legalization on July 1 or whenever is a panacea that will drive gains. Do you not think the market is smart enough to price that in? But for that prospect none of these stocks would be trading anywhere near their current prices. If anything the reality will disappoint with supply disruptions or whatever. Anyone waiting for ultimate legalization to bale them out is kidding themselves. After legalization these companies will have to justify their price with actual earnings. They will no longer be trading on the story, they will trade on fundamentals.

[Mercury2wo]

Originally Posted by SMD

Not sure why everyone thinks legalization on July 1 or whenever is a panacea that will drive gains. Do you not think the market is smart enough to price that in? But for that prospect none of these stocks would be trading anywhere near their current prices. If anything the reality will disappoint with supply disruptions or whatever. Anyone waiting for ultimate legalization to bale them out is kidding themselves. After legalization these companies will have to justify their price with actual earnings. They will no longer be trading on the story, they will trade on fundamentals.

True.

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

Generally always a big bump in the speculative small stocks from Jan - late Feb trailing in Canada as RRSP cash is being deployed and funds load up. Usually a bounce after a late Fall technical sell off on those locking in losses, this sector did not correct in the fall and kept on moving ahead providing lots of gap ups. Now RRSP buying is finished, the sector is also digesting uncertainty of new accounting rules that are being contemplated. Then you have the constant balance rebalance on those indexed plays. Most if not all need to backfill and test the Fib-numbers and at least find a double bottom after the erratic moves of late.

APH is broken from a technical standpoint. It blew past second line of support today and could retest the yearly low arrond $5 if it doesn’t get back above and hold in the $11.50 range. Weed broke through first line of support today and if it can’t hold it is on its way to $20. The sector has run up on faulty accounting methodology, a presumption of finite number of producers and a pool of potential new users. There are a very large number of small mom and pop medical growers who are expanding rapidly to meet recreational needs. Literally hundreds and hundreds. Where I live in Canada we currently have more pot shops than Starbucks and McDonalds combined before legalization. Prices are dropping below $6 grm and trending lower. Legalization will further flood the market with product into a market that is already meeting the needs of those who consume.

[jcr847]

Originally Posted by SMD

Not sure why everyone thinks legalization on July 1 or whenever is a panacea that will drive gains. Do you not think the market is smart enough to price that in? But for that prospect none of these stocks would be trading anywhere near their current prices. If anything the reality will disappoint with supply disruptions or whatever. Anyone waiting for ultimate legalization to bale them out is kidding themselves. After legalization these companies will have to justify their price with actual earnings. They will no longer be trading on the story, they will trade on fundamentals.

I agree. I dumped about half my holdings in Feb and have been completely out of the sector since early March. Took about a 20% loss but avoided quite a bit more as I sold Aphria at an average of ~13 and it’s on it’s way to about 5 IMHO. I still like the sector and will likely reinvest around September when there are actual sales and the share prices are based on something rational.

[bing240sx]

i agree with the legalization date likely not driving significant gains. It's more a milestone that will open up rec-legal revenues.

i'm taking a very long term view on this. I will never need the cash out of this portfolio unless i want to buy a new Porsche or something, probably not even then. Just going to ride the train for a few years.

[mcorliss]

I think too many people have unrealistic expectations, in both a bearish and bullish fashion. APH will likely not trade back to $5, nor will it crest $20 leading up to June 7th vote for legalization. Likewise, legalization is not fully priced in at these price levels, and cannabis stocks are not going to sit down here waiting for recreational profits to come in (as if they are blue chip stocks in a slow growing mature industry) before moving higher either. People that try to apply traditional fundamental analysis to a sector going through a huge once in generation transformation (5-10x sales bump) are truly misguided.

IMHO, stocks will rally half way back, cap out, then investor focus will turn to 2019 earnings, later 2020 normalized earnings with the introduction of edibles and moderate international sales.

Said another way, if you wait for actual proof of trailing earnings to arrive before buying, you will have missed out on the lion’s share of the potential gains, and any sort of consolidation wave by multinationals.

You don’t have to be perfect to make money on these companies, just committed, patient, disciplined, and realistic. Only time will tell who is actually correct.

[superdog]

Looks to me like a different of opinion based on long-term or short-term strategy.

Again, I know nothing about everything. However, based on all the articles I read and the shows I watch the various predictions that consistently are wrong, I am pretty sure that no one knows much of anything.

As sated above, time will tell who is correct. I just can't fathom how, in the long-term, this industry can't literally grow. And most of the companies listed in the thread are certainly viable companies.

Long and short, it is a gamble. And I hope I am correct.

[cornerstore]

From a pineapple to computer algorithms it is the fabric of nature.
Fibonacci numbers appear unexpectedly often in mathematics, so much so that there is an entire journal dedicated to their study, the Fibonacci Quarterly. Applications of Fibonacci numbers include computer algorithms such as the Fibonacci search technique and the Fibonacci heap data structure, and graphs called Fibonacci cubes used for interconnecting parallel and distributed systems. They also appear in biological settings,[11] such as branching in trees, phyllotaxis (the arrangement of leaves on a stem), the fruit sprouts of a pineapple,[12] the flowering of an artichoke, an uncurling fern and the arrangement of a pine cone's bracts.[13]
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci_number

[Gaijin]

Awesome. Sampling a bit before posting.

[cornerstore]

The industry mantra is we lose money on every ounce but we make it up on volume. Barriers to entry are minimal, no intellectual property rights, potential infinite supply of product and laws are passed not allowing marketing to differentiate growers. Now pressure being put on the industry on electricity useage and removing agricultural tax status and disallowing or restricting constructing facilities on farm land. Aging target population and heavy work place and roadside inspections. They allowed the sector to go public to raise capital for the infrastructure build out with little regard for investors returns or welfare . To this point not one penny of profit has been made in the sector other than swapping paper. A real recipe for success.

[superdog]

^^^

Isn’t it true that Spotify has not made a penny in profit? And companies such as amazon were valued at many billions of dollars before a penny was made?

[SMD]

Originally Posted by superdog

^^^

Isn’t it true that Spotify has not made a penny in profit? And companies such as amazon were valued at many billions of dollars before a penny was made?

Barriers to entry.

[mcorliss]

Originally Posted by cornerstore

The industry mantra is we lose money on every ounce but we make it up on volume. Barriers to entry are minimal, no intellectual property rights, potential infinite supply of product and laws are passed not allowing marketing to differentiate growers. Now pressure being put on the industry on electricity useage and removing agricultural tax status and disallowing or restricting constructing facilities on farm land. Aging target population and heavy work place and roadside inspections. They allowed the sector to go public to raise capital for the infrastructure build out with little regard for investors returns or welfare . To this point not one penny of profit has been made in the sector other than swapping paper. A real recipe for success.

Are companies supposed to wait until they are profitable to go public?

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by mcorliss

Are companies supposed to wait until they are profitable to go public?

Not necessarily, however there are some standards that should be met when stocks graduate off the Venture aka penny exchanges to the TSX and senior exchanges. Standards in this sector have been lowered or ignored so as to accommodate venture capital infusions for the build out. Here is an interesting take on the path to a solid footing.


http://fortune.com/2013/02/25/is-you...any-ipo-ready/

[cornerstore]

Originally Posted by superdog

^^^

Isn’t it true that Spotify has not made a penny in profit? And companies such as amazon were valued at many billions of dollars before a penny was made?

You are correct, however it is the whole picture that must be considered. This sector is about growing weeds not a lot of barriers to entry or proprietary rights. Sector also has competition with an existing underground market thriving for decades, unlike those you mentioned

[Mosco]

https://midasletter.com/2018/04/5-qu...ijuana-stocks/

[Baco Noir]

Originally Posted by Mosco

https://midasletter.com/2018/04/5-qu...ijuana-stocks/

Wonder if the author or anyone connected with the Barons article shorted the market before its release last Friday?