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Old 3 October 2019, 09:51 PM   #61
mongrelnomoad
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Which London Patek AD do you deal with?
I’d rather not name any names unless it’s in a positive context.
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Old 3 October 2019, 09:52 PM   #62
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I’d rather not name any names unless it’s in a positive context.
Well I'm happy to recommend Sam at Pragnell.
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Old 3 October 2019, 09:57 PM   #63
mongrelnomoad
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Well I'm happy to recommend Sam at Pragnell.
Thank you Russell. I have no experience with Pragnell but will keep Sam in mind.
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Old 3 October 2019, 10:28 PM   #64
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although i am a big sport watch fan i start to think that is makes sense to unload a few nautis rather sooner than later to fund more 'sustainable' watches of higher horological content, like the 5270P or the 5370P....questions...
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Old 4 October 2019, 01:51 AM   #65
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Naw. I live in a small hut. Take the train. Wear droopy underwear. Actually wife bought me a 10 x 3 packs. Lately

Priceless :)
Ha Ninja he said as he went for ice cream with his daughter wearing her 5711and his wife wearing her 5990 and of course himself sporting a Mille ha! :-)
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Old 4 October 2019, 02:53 AM   #66
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Ha Ninja he said as he went for ice cream with his daughter wearing her 5711and his wife wearing her 5990 and of course himself sporting a Mille ha! :-)
Nothing gets past you. Except sarcasm and irony.
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Old 6 October 2019, 06:58 AM   #67
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To get back on topic, i see the prices softening indeed. One of my preferred pre owned sellers (luxurywatches) has a couple of (uncomplicated) nautili and they are all under 60K euro
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Old 6 October 2019, 07:32 AM   #68
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Agreed.

And agreed with the other comment that it's really just the Blue 5711/1A-010.

It was what propped everything else up, but I genuinely believe it was the only one that was truly in serious demand. People just ended up going to the others, driving up their prices, because they weren't patient enough to wait for a 5711/1A-010 to show up at their AD (years) or at their favorite Grey dealer (months ~> a year).

And then when this happened to all the Nautiluses, the Aquanaut got dragged into it too.

It's all unnatural. I don't even see anyone wearing those watches that they buy at absurd premiums.

And then when I see silly videos like the "investment watches" video by Kevin O'Leary, I shake my head and remember that I was once taught that you identify a bubble when your dentist is giving you advice to invest in a specific security/product/market.

Sounds about right. :)
+1

Crazy to see aquanaut prices are now surging for a travel time to over 60k - Insane.
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Old 6 October 2019, 09:51 AM   #69
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To get back on topic, i see the prices softening indeed. One of my preferred pre owned sellers (luxurywatches) has a couple of (uncomplicated) nautili and they are all under 60K euro
The guys w two white 5711s shy of EUR 60k, a 5712 for EUR 77k, and a 5711/1R for EUR 112k, all used and several years old? I am not saying there was no softening but these asking prices are right up there, especially for the /1R.

The issue is that turnover at the elevated prices has slowed down, supply has substantially increased, but asking prices didn't drop accordingly as everybody seems to be hoping for the summer slump to end and/or for a xmas season pickup.
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Old 6 October 2019, 03:32 PM   #70
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The guys w two white 5711s shy of EUR 60k, a 5712 for EUR 77k, and a 5711/1R for EUR 112k, all used and several years old? I am not saying there was no softening but these asking prices are right up there, especially for the /1R.

The issue is that turnover at the elevated prices has slowed down, supply has substantially increased, but asking prices didn't drop accordingly as everybody seems to be hoping for the summer slump to end and/or for a xmas season pickup.
Good Point. I think people who surf this forum here wouldn't buy it in the price before "softening" and wouldn't buy it after price "softening" ("soften" from a 250 % retail to 180-200%). And news- there is 50 % chance they wouldn't buy it on retail as well.

So don't celebrate yet. Prices of the nautilus will come down back to retail/below retail only in those 2 unlikely events-

1. Patek is going out of business because no one want's any patek anymore.
2. There is another model on hype and you wouldn't want this "ugly square" one anyway.

The current softening is due to our guys in HK have something else on their mind, soon to be over.
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Old 6 October 2019, 06:22 PM   #71
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Good Point. I think people who surf this forum here wouldn't buy it in the price before "softening" and wouldn't buy it after price "softening" ("soften" from a 250 % retail to 180-200%). And news- there is 50 % chance they wouldn't buy it on retail as well.

So don't celebrate yet. Prices of the nautilus will come down back to retail/below retail only in those 2 unlikely events-

1. Patek is going out of business because no one want's any patek anymore.
2. There is another model on hype and you wouldn't want this "ugly square" one anyway.

The current softening is due to our guys in HK have something else on their mind, soon to be over.
Sounds like you have a horse in the race.
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Old 6 October 2019, 06:57 PM   #72
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Sounds like you have a horse in the race.
My race is different than watch dealing (I am a lawyer and an author).

However, i do own a 5726/1A-001 (bracelet) which i chose over a 5712/1A-001
(both on retail in AD), although "everyone" and the AD himself push me to get the 5712 (it's hot it's like a stock, the 5726 is unwanted and so on). So i can't be considered in the "race".
Of course, the reward for a man with his own principles came in the recent position of my watch as the most sought after steel nautilus (still, not for sale).
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Old 6 October 2019, 09:43 PM   #73
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Sounds like you have a horse in the race.
This was actually funny...never heard anyone say that before
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Old 7 October 2019, 10:27 AM   #74
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Yep Ninja although I think he had a dog in the fight ha!
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Old 8 October 2019, 03:04 AM   #75
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Well the premiums are still crazy but possibly marginally less crazy than before.
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Old 8 October 2019, 11:17 PM   #76
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Dropped by a grey dealer today and he has an used steel 5712 for less than 60. Look like price downward trend continues.
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Old 9 October 2019, 12:45 AM   #77
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Downward trend because the Chinese have not been able to keep the prices this high. Many of them aren't shopping in Hong Kong anymore and that's the epicenter of grey market watches. When sales aren't moving like normal you have to lower the prices and/or cut losses to keep the cash moving.

When HKG cuts prices, the rest of the world has to as well.

Also Im surprised no Rolex dudes in here saying "BUT PATEK HAS SHIPPED OUT THE SAME AMOUNT, JUST EVERYONE HAS SOMEHOW FOUND $50K FOR A WATCH TO BUY!". Since I don't have that many good Patek connects, I was still "told" by my Patek AD that Patek produces the same amount of watches as previously, but they aren't receiving as many. Reality is that Patek has artificially twisted supply (just like Rolex) and that's why we see these inflated prices. Can't find a Nautilus on display anymore.
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Old 9 October 2019, 02:17 AM   #78
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Downward trend because the Chinese have not been able to keep the prices this high. Many of them aren't shopping in Hong Kong anymore and that's the epicenter of grey market watches. When sales aren't moving like normal you have to lower the prices and/or cut losses to keep the cash moving.

When HKG cuts prices, the rest of the world has to as well.

Also Im surprised no Rolex dudes in here saying "BUT PATEK HAS SHIPPED OUT THE SAME AMOUNT, JUST EVERYONE HAS SOMEHOW FOUND $50K FOR A WATCH TO BUY!". Since I don't have that many good Patek connects, I was still "told" by my Patek AD that Patek produces the same amount of watches as previously, but they aren't receiving as many. Reality is that Patek has artificially twisted supply (just like Rolex) and that's why we see these inflated prices. Can't find a Nautilus on display anymore.
Well they haven't been sitting on AD displays for 4-5 years now (yes some exceptions might apply but in general).
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Old 9 October 2019, 02:23 AM   #79
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Sold last night w premium for just over $90k in Hong Kong @ Sotheby's. I'd say that's a softening trend with most still asking well over $100k and not moving.
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Old 9 October 2019, 02:58 AM   #80
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Sold last night w premium for just over $90k in Hong Kong @ Sotheby's. I'd say that's a softening trend with most still asking well over $100k and not moving.
If 90k inclusive of 25% buyer premium then hammer price was 72k. Deducted 15% consignment fee then the owner will receive only around 61k for his 5980.
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Old 9 October 2019, 03:44 AM   #81
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If 90k inclusive of 25% buyer premium then hammer price was 72k. Deducted 15% consignment fee then the owner will receive only around 61k for his 5980.
Where's that horror emoji when you need it?
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Old 9 October 2019, 03:58 AM   #82
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if 90k inclusive of 25% buyer premium then hammer price was 72k. Deducted 15% consignment fee then the owner will receive only around 61k for his 5980.
+1
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Old 9 October 2019, 04:44 AM   #83
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I dont feel so bad now for selling my 5980 a few years back for 40k. Bought it for 35. Didnt wear it much and sold it. Then of course prices sky rocketed to insane levels and it seems they are coming back to reality a bit. Its nuts what some of these pieces are going for.
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Old 9 October 2019, 05:47 AM   #84
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If 90k inclusive of 25% buyer premium then hammer price was 72k. Deducted 15% consignment fee then the owner will receive only around 61k for his 5980.
Saw this and thought it was a good buy. These have been hitting high 90s GBP and above and sure will do again soon. Rolex subs and GMT did pretty well I thought.
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Old 9 October 2019, 05:53 AM   #85
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Well there goes the dreams of being fake rich
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Old 9 October 2019, 05:56 AM   #86
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Where's that horror emoji when you need it?
Selling a desirable piece at auction seems crazy.
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Old 9 October 2019, 09:00 AM   #87
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Well there goes the dreams of being fake rich
The 30k millionaires are all upset. :)
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Old 9 October 2019, 11:23 AM   #88
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I was at the auction. The 90k is NOT inclusive of the 25%. All in for the buyer is 112.5k usd.

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Old 9 October 2019, 11:36 AM   #89
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I was at the auction. The 90k is NOT inclusive of the 25%. All in for the buyer is 112.5k usd.

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That is correct, which IMO is overpriced. There are a few sub 100k on Chrono. I suspect 5980 goes back to mid 70s where it was last year.
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Old 9 October 2019, 11:37 AM   #90
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So much for all my retirement dreams.... I’ll be greeting at Walmart until I die now


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