Are we going to see vintage watches at 5+ years ago prices?

[alwayshere]

as others have stated already, prices will fall but it won't be a firesale.

The reality is most of the collectors are well-off and this looming economic issue will unlikely trigger serious liquidity issues.

Think about the situation that you are currently in? are you looking to sell your pieces? cos I know I'm not (touch wood).

[thelias]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

Also depends how long this is going to last. Fast forward 2-3 months and this situation is still ongoing, you'll see the difference.

Totally agree. Though watches, like precious jewels and gold, depreciate slower than cars, fine art, and wine in times of recession. But I think in a few months we'll start to see some market dips.

[L.K Johnson]

Thoughts on these auction results?


https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auct...ne-2?locale=en

[roh123]

Originally Posted by L.K Johnson

Thoughts on these auction results?


https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auct...ne-2?locale=en

Strong! Very surprising.

[milwatch126]

In your dreams. The vintage watches you want along with everyone else are not watches you can buy in an AD. Special vintage models in near to collectors condition will always draw those in the know and keep increasing in value. The not so good in today’s market may suffer but then again vintage tastes are individual. Pass the crystal ball.
M

[fusionstorm]

I have a regular dialogue with someone very well known in the business. He’s shown me some recent acquisitions he made. They never even made it online, as clients of his snapped them up. All were in the 6-figure USD range.

Suffice to say he’s not overly concerned about any softening in the market.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by L.K Johnson

Thoughts on these auction results?


https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auct...ne-2?locale=en

A Hulk at 16k CHF lol?!

[L.K Johnson]

Here are some more auction results that ended today...a 6694 at 1410 Euro...pretty cheap!

https://www.catawiki.com/a/353711-rolex-watch-auction

[swish77]

Originally Posted by L.K Johnson

Thoughts on these auction results?


https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auct...ne-2?locale=en

About $92,000 for a "Big Red" 6265 Daytona, 5.5 million, in good but not amazing condition. Very strong result, especially with what's going on in the world.

Vintage Daytonas, what can you say. Virtually bullet-proof in terms of holding value and more, for now anyway.

[roh123]

Originally Posted by swish77

About $92,000 for a "Big Red" 6265 Daytona, 5.5 million, in good but not amazing condition. Very strong result, especially with what's going on in the world.

Vintage Daytonas, what can you say. Virtually bullet-proof in terms of holding value and more, for now anyway.

Patek 5711 75k chf. I’d call bubble on both results.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by roh123

Patek 5711 75k chf. I’d call bubble on both results.

People have been saying that for over a year on the Daytonas, and the bubble just ain't bursting, even in a global economic downturn. Maybe one day, but I doubt it.

[Watchasizer]

Originally Posted by roh123

Patek 5711 75k chf. I’d call bubble on both results.

Way too early too tell....Hope you are right, but I doubt anything is bullet proof in a bad downturn.

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by swish77

People have been saying that for over a year on the Daytonas, and the bubble just ain't bursting, even in a global economic downturn. Maybe one day, but I doubt it.

It does seem 4 digits might be dropping slightly but zeniths holding strong or going up slightly....

[roh123]

Originally Posted by swish77

People have been saying that for over a year on the Daytonas, and the bubble just ain't bursting, even in a global economic downturn. Maybe one day, but I doubt it.

Most things are down. Including Daytonas. This sale is an anomaly. Most things went very strong.

We draw different conclusions from this. Which is perfectly alright.

[Tom1675]

Sometimes these descriptions are laughable "likely never polished"

https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auct...inless-steel-4

I know these are hand polished before leaving the factory but come on.

[theflywrist]

Originally Posted by Tom1675

Sometimes these descriptions are laughable "likely never polished"

https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auct...inless-steel-4

I know these are hand polished before leaving the factory but come on.

Why they wouldn't push in the spring bars before taking the rear photograph for a catalogue is beyond me.

[francoiscevert]

Originally Posted by theflywrist

Why they wouldn't push in the spring bars before taking the rear photograph for a catalogue is beyond me.

Maybe they wanted to be transparent in what happend to the watch.
As the springbars were cut so they don‘t stick out of the case which normally is a clear sign that a watch is over-polished.

Just look at the bottom right lug, a toothstick comes to my mind and still the springbar appears.

[Vintage12]

We are told at times like this, wash your hands and protect your face. Since we can't get sanitizer or masks maybe there are other ways to distract us…

[1watch]

Originally Posted by Tom1675

Sometimes these descriptions are laughable "likely never polished"

https://www.sothebys.com/en/buy/auct...inless-steel-4

I know these are hand polished before leaving the factory but come on.

That’s a laughable assessment of the case

[swaini3]

Originally Posted by Vintage12

We are told at times like this, wash your hands and protect your face. Since we can't get sanitizer or masks maybe there are other ways to distract us…

[zapokee]

Originally Posted by Vintage12

We are told at times like this, wash your hands and protect your face. Since we can't get sanitizer or masks maybe there are other ways to distract us…

Double-wrist photo... What did you press the shutter with?

[Verdi]

It is pretty clear that prices are gonna go down. To what extent?! Nobody knows....it is all very fluid at the moment. But the longer is gonna last the lower its gonna go.

Not all collectors are that well off and buy PN Daytonas. The bulk of the people here have a few watches, enthusiasts who took a long time to save up or find their timepieces for a decent price.
Don't judge the crowd by a niche.

Prices have been up so much.....the ss modern “shortage” got the price up for all vintage and neo-vintage sport models. Since these ones became so expensive.....the vintage DJs, OP followed suit and increased in value. So, all vintage Rolex went up considerably in the last 2 years.

Now, the reality check.....many are out of job or get 50% less pay for the months to follow. There are gonna be a lot of watches for sale....

[zapokee]

Originally Posted by Verdi

...many are out of job or get 50% less pay for the months to follow.

Not sure what you're basing this on... Not the case in my experience.

[Verdi]

Originally Posted by zapokee

Not sure what you're basing this on... Not the case in my experience.

Well, do you know someone in Italy, Spain or Middle east?......

Might not be your reality but its happening in many parts of the world.

[bayareabuggs]

Originally Posted by zapokee

Not sure what you're basing this on... Not the case in my experience.

wake up dude

[snoware]

Any and all markets crash every now and then. Right now nothing significant will happen.

With corona hitting the US. We’ll see many people lose their jobs and one thing they’ll do it to try to sell their assets (for obvious reasonable).

Then we’ll see the prices tumble because supply (used) will increase.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Vlad]

Originally Posted by bayareabuggs

wake up dude

He's correct. Situation is Tokyo is not the same as Italy or Spain. So, from his perspective, life is not that bad

[swish77]

Originally Posted by Verdi

There are gonna be a lot of watches for sale....

Not necessarily. Some, yes, if the owners are desperate for cash.

However, I have a feeling that many watch lovers/hobbyists who have the disposable income to buy what amounts to life's little trinkets, won't immediately need to liquidate collections.

I guess it'll depend how long this thing lasts. Some areas of Asia are already getting back to "normal," or close to it.

[SubKing]

Based on the information I been following and IMO, we will see effects going into Q2,Q3 and some of Q4. Speaking in terms of economic recession. I expect there will be new therapies available in the months to come. Followed by the vaccine in 2021.

There will still be some recession ripples felt going into 2021. Most recessions last 15mo.. perhaps 18 if looking at 08. The only difference between now and 08 is, we went into this with a strong economy. I suspect this will be a "U" shape recovery. Once people are allowed to go back to work, our economy will jump start itself. Perhaps certain industries will see a decrease in revenue. For example, after 911, the airlines saw about a 5% decrease in business until the fear left the system and normal travel resumed. I see the same for restaurants, airlines and other sectors, with the case of "social distancing"..

I really don't think this thing is going to last long enough for people to start liquidating assets in the area some are thinking, like watches.

Sure there have and will be some more liquidations in the weeks and months to come, but not enough to "flood" the market. I think brands have been working hard for years now to prevent saturation and beat the gray market.

Just my 2 cents.

[roh123]

This crisis will probably continue for a long time. Here in Europe most things have been closed for quite a while and we still haven’t started to see a decrease. It will get worse before it gets better. The US is just in the beginning of this unfortunately.

Prices risk to go down not only because people are are forced to sell. Prices will decrease when the speculation stops and people try to realize profits. When they want to move money elsewhere when prices don’t continue to appreciate 20-30% anually as we have gotten used to. Not all people are passionate watch collectors that keep pieces just because they love them.