Talking Stocks 2.0

[blown5.0]

Originally Posted by RyanO

I use ETrade and do not pay commissions, you should contact them regarding updating your fee schedule if you're being charged.

Thanks, ill inquire and followup in case it's useful for others.

[HTXlex]

Just picked up a few calls on fsly, idk if that’s the best decision right now with the tiktok news.

[AshCashEmAll]

I’m not entirely sure how this all works. So tik tok is fastly’s customers but now they have to sell to another company or else they are banned. What happens to fastly if they sell to another company such as Microsoft? Will they still need Fastly?



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[McGooberstein]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Lots of deliveries. An ingrained way to buy things now.

I'm guessing UPS, Fedex, and Costco are going to be smashing earnings for the foreseeable future. I added to all three in the past month.

Also think unilever and procter & gamble will overperform given the current covid and future post covid environment with more people staying at home and spending more on essentials.

Staying away from entertainment and travel sectors, except companies that have digital delivery/subscription models. Betting on Netflix because they pump out so much good original content and Activision Blizzard for at home gaming content.

I think Disney is going to crash and burn within the next year- their park operations around the world are a massive liability and Disney plus is terrible imo. I bought a 1 year subscription and will not be renewing- their original content production volume is pathetic- yes mandalorian was solid but that's been it essentially since the platform came out last year. Definitely had a honeymoon phase with it at first but I'm guessing it's going to flop, negativity will spread, and subscriptions will dramatically slow down. New content rollout will also be slowed due to the pandemic.

[blown5.0]

Just a followup with etrade for those curious-

There is zero commission for US exchange stocks, ETFs, and options trades. There are still commission for stocks that are OTC, since those are not listed on the exchange

Looks like there are fees in certain circumstances.

Originally Posted by blown5.0

Thanks, ill inquire and followup in case it's useful for others.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by McGooberstein

I'm guessing UPS, Fedex, and Costco are going to be smashing earnings for the foreseeable future. I added to all three in the past month.

Also think unilever and procter & gamble will overperform given the current covid and future post covid environment with more people staying at home and spending more on essentials.

Staying away from entertainment and travel sectors, except companies that have digital delivery/subscription models. Betting on Netflix because they pump out so much good original content and Activision Blizzard for at home gaming content.

I think Disney is going to crash and burn within the next year- their park operations around the world are a massive liability and Disney plus is terrible imo. I bought a 1 year subscription and will not be renewing- their original content production volume is pathetic- yes mandalorian was solid but that's been it essentially since the platform came out last year. Definitely had a honeymoon phase with it at first but I'm guessing it's going to flop, negativity will spread, and subscriptions will dramatically slow down. New content rollout will also be slowed due to the pandemic.

disney also owns abc and espn and the rights to marvel. i think they'll be fine

[77T]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

I’m not entirely sure how this all works. So tik tok is fastly’s customers but now they have to sell to another company or else they are banned. What happens to fastly if they sell to another company such as Microsoft? Will they still need Fastly?

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TikTok’s data will be transferred to US servers under the proposed deal - MS told the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS).

ByteDance is TikTok owner and has plenty of need for distributed Tier1 POPs.

Watch for MS to consider a deal with Fastly, mainly to integrate/isolate/erase TikTok data on foreign servers.

Here is the Fastly map:



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[calh22a]

Originally Posted by huncho

disney also owns abc and espn and the rights to marvel. i think they'll be fine

I’m long Disney. I agree. I think they will be just fine.

[supernova]

Re-entered FSLY at 78, was waiting for sub 80. Definitely oversold on the news.

NET had a wild ride today, may re-enter them if they go around 38.

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by supernova

Re-entered FSLY at 78, was waiting for sub 80. Definitely oversold on the news.

NET had a wild ride today, may re-enter them if they go around 38.

I added to FSLY also at 77. I think it’s ridiculous why it would drop so much over the news but oh well great buying opportunity.


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[cornerstore]

Disney like many large and diverse public companies was grossly over leveraged pre- Covid. Cash flow disruption for Dis and others is being propped up by the Fed but for how long. Disney posted a profit by deferring expenses. Expenses presumably such as bank loans, interest payments and suppliers. Balance sheets are also being skewed by unprecedented accelerated tax right offs and cuts. The whole entertainment service industry is a House of cards. Expect to see lots of chapter11’s as companies try to reduce debt. Technically Disney and many others are currently insolvent but too “big to fail for now. The Big question nobody wants to discuss is who is ultimately going to pay for all this corporate welfare being dished out by the Fed. Will it be individual tax payers or will it be done by rolling back the overly generous corporate tax breaks and cuts. Either way someone will pay and the negative economic impact will be felt for a very long time. But for now it’s party like it’s 1999.

[McGooberstein]

Originally Posted by huncho

disney also owns abc and espn and the rights to marvel. i think they'll be fine

I think long run disney will be fine- I'm just saying the stock is extremely overpriced at the moment sitting at a P/E of 47 after a negative quarter. Another negative quarter is likely hot on its heels I'm guessing.

The valuation would suggest disney is some sort of hot tech growth company when in reality they are a diversified entertainment conglomerate with a lot of baggage that's not going to fare well in the current climate- namely amusement parks and a sports network with limited sporting events a possibility. I'm guessing it's only a matter of weeks before covid spreads within sports leagues, the whole thing shuts down, and the league execs will realize they jumped the gun far too early. It's already started in the MLB. It's a shame the USA wasn't able to get this thing under control like so many other developed nations around the world were. Going to a baseball game with a brat and beer in hand sounds great right now.

Also- what good is a streaming service if you cannot demonstrate a commitment to consistent production of new and original content. To date they have not proven an ability to do this. Hollywood production has slowed, and that also probably means delays on any planned new releases for disney plus and theater releases.

[trippinjimmy]

Nice little sale on FSLY and AYX today!

[RBradleigh]

Originally Posted by McGooberstein

I think long run disney will be fine- I'm just saying the stock is extremely overpriced at the moment sitting at a P/E of 47 after a negative quarter. Another negative quarter is likely hot on its heels I'm guessing.

The valuation would suggest disney is some sort of hot tech growth company when in reality they are a diversified entertainment conglomerate with a lot of baggage that's not going to fare well in the current climate- namely amusement parks and a sports network with limited sporting events a possibility. I'm guessing it's only a matter of weeks before covid spreads within sports leagues, the whole thing shuts down, and the league execs will realize they jumped the gun far too early. It's already started in the MLB. It's a shame the USA wasn't able to get this thing under control like so many other developed nations around the world were. Going to a baseball game with a brat and beer in hand sounds great right now.

Also- what good is a streaming service if you cannot demonstrate a commitment to consistent production of new and original content. To date they have not proven an ability to do this. Hollywood production has slowed, and that also probably means delays on any planned new releases for disney plus and theater releases.

I’m also willing to assume DIS is getting some sort of nice payment / exposure from NBA and MLS for use of their “bubble”

I wouldn’t oversell that

[cornerstore]

Fastly pre Covid was trading in low 20’s with a solid 35% annual growth rate. On one qtr of likely unsustainable growth at 63% the price goes up 500%. Growth spurred on by a rapid need to scale up to service immediate needs due to an unprecedented global shut down. I was shocked the growth wasn’t over a 100% considering the immediate need. They are not a pure play on software and they have scaling costs that are hitting the margins. They run server farms with tweaked up proprietary programmes. They have big competitors and as many have been in the past they could be leap frogged by new technology. They are a true transitional technology band aid. From a trading perspective if this level does not hold $49 is possible or in this irrational market the hype train takes it on another run.

[RBradleigh]

I hold a decent amount of STOR in my portfolio, can anyone tell me why STOR had a nice lil 4.5% pop today, oversold?

With movie theaters looking into digital releases I don’t see why there’d be a sudden upward swing.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by McGooberstein

I think long run disney will be fine- I'm just saying the stock is extremely overpriced at the moment sitting at a P/E of 47 after a negative quarter. Another negative quarter is likely hot on its heels I'm guessing.

The valuation would suggest disney is some sort of hot tech growth company when in reality they are a diversified entertainment conglomerate with a lot of baggage that's not going to fare well in the current climate- namely amusement parks and a sports network with limited sporting events a possibility. I'm guessing it's only a matter of weeks before covid spreads within sports leagues, the whole thing shuts down, and the league execs will realize they jumped the gun far too early. It's already started in the MLB. It's a shame the USA wasn't able to get this thing under control like so many other developed nations around the world were. Going to a baseball game with a brat and beer in hand sounds great right now.

Also- what good is a streaming service if you cannot demonstrate a commitment to consistent production of new and original content. To date they have not proven an ability to do this. Hollywood production has slowed, and that also probably means delays on any planned new releases for disney plus and theater releases.

the outbreak in MLB was because the players didn't follow protocols and due to the mlb using delayed tests. it was only 2 teams and it was announced that the marlins got it because players were going out to bars and clubs. since they and the cardinals got infected they made it clear that players need to follow rules better and there hasnt been any other outbreak yet

i expect the nfl to be pretty bad though. teams are huge and linemen are in constant contact with people

agreed on the content though. its hard to create a streaming service and have good original content, but either way they will be making marvel tv shows which everyone watches

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by RBradleigh

I hold a decent amount of STOR in my portfolio, can anyone tell me why STOR had a nice lil 4.5% pop today, oversold?

With movie theaters looking into digital releases I don’t see why there’d be a sudden upward swing.

I have a hunch but will need to do some research, I am long STOR as well

[beshannon]

Looks to me like it was a good earnings call with STOR, stock might be getting ahead of itself

[austinp]

How much money is needed to retire at 60 and live on about 300k per yr. what type of investments should your money be in once you start drawing on it? I understand there are lots of variables. But just in general. Thanks Gents.


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[m j b]

Originally Posted by austinp

How much money is needed to retire at 60 and live on about 300k per yr.

That's funny. 300K/year in retirement? Surely your house(s) will be paid off by then.

How long do you plan to live?

Is that pre-tax or post-tax money?

[austinp]

Pre tax. Probably live to a 100 or so.


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[m j b]

$16 million, depending on your state's tax rate and what the federal tax rates are in xx years. By retirement time, you should be in bonds, CDs and similar conservative products to protect the principle.

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by austinp

How much money is needed to retire at 60 and live on about 300k per yr. what type of investments should your money be in once you start drawing on it? I understand there are lots of variables. But just in general. Thanks Gents.


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3% draw is normal in the UK. Eg one million gives you 30k a year. So 300k a year would be 10 million approximately.

[jaisonline]

Article from Aug 2019

https://www.businessinsider.com/pers...y-at-55-2019-8

[austinp]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Article from Aug 2019

https://www.businessinsider.com/pers...y-at-55-2019-8

Thank you for the information. I was reading that 4% was a good rule. 7.5 mil for 300k.


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[austinp]

Originally Posted by Uggi

3% draw is normal in the UK. Eg one million gives you 30k a year. So 300k a year would be 10 million approximately.

Was reading similar to that. That sounds about right to me. Thank you.


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[austinp]

Originally Posted by m j b

$16 million, depending on your state's tax rate and what the federal tax rates are in xx years. By retirement time, you should be in bonds, CDs and similar conservative products to protect the principle.

Thank you. How bout for 90 years old and no state income tax?


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[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by austinp

How much money is needed to retire at 60 and live on about 300k per yr. what type of investments should your money be in once you start drawing on it? I understand there are lots of variables. But just in general. Thanks Gents.


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https://www.firecalc.com/

Make sure you open and fill out the tabs at the top that apply to your circumstance.

[RBradleigh]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Looks to me like it was a good earnings call with STOR, stock might be getting ahead of itself

Thanks Beshannon