Swiss watch exports rebounded in July

[Fat_ninja]

https://www.fhs.swiss/scripts/getsta...m_190707_a.pdf

Hong Kong (-1.3%) remained in the red but performed significantly better than it had in June. The majority of other markets saw an increase in July. The United States (+6.1%) maintained a steady pace. In Asia, there was strong growth in China (+16.3%), Japan (+23.4%) and Singapore (+17.9%). The situation in Europe (-0.8%), however, was less satisfactory. The United Kingdom (-0.4%), France (-12.0%) and Germany (-3.6%) all declined. While Italy’s monthly performance improved (+1.9%), the medium-term trend there still showed a marked decline.


Not sure what Aug looks like.. I suspect it flattened out. But man Europe suc

[Calatrava r]

"The main contribution to the increase in total value came from watches made from precious metals, which saw turnover from export sales grow by 11.5%. Volumes continued to fall for the twelfth consecutive month as the downward trend worsened, with 390,000 fewer items shipped overseas. This was the sharpest fall since July 2016." from the article


390K less watches shipped. This confirms the overall trend for traditional watches continues it long but steady decline. At some point this will become more apparent as the smaller independents feel the pressure. Questions concerning their long time viability weighing on future servicing needs serves as a deterrent to buying complicated pieces from them.

[Fat_ninja]

Interesting that it’s PM driven. People have been anecdotally mentioning to me there has been a shift from SS to PM... nice to see the move.

[Ichiran]

I haven't purchased any swiss watch in July. However, got 1 in Feb, 2 in Apr and 2 in Sep. We should see good swiss watch export number in Sep then.

[ap1]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I haven't purchased any swiss watch in July. However, got 1 in Feb, 2 in Apr and 2 in Sep. We should see good swiss watch export number in Sep then.

Atta guy

[uniqueMR]

[TJMike]

My take: watches are becoming a luxury item. All price categories were down, except those above 3000 francs (retail maybe around $5000). Watches are increasingly man jewelry for the rich. The July figures are not good news for any low-end brand.

[JR16]

Originally Posted by TJMike

My take: watches are becoming a luxury item. All price categories were down, except those above 3000 francs (retail maybe around $5000). Watches are increasingly man jewelry for the rich. The July figures are not good news for any low-end brand.

Agree, and there’s been data for a few years confirming how the low end watches (price tier) are getting squeezed big time. I do however think with a strongish economy, or at least the increase in number of 1 percenters, combined with SM, the “luxury” segment will be just fine.


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[d11n]

feels to me Patek has its revenue from two main segments...

the SS and sport and quartz half likely heavily dependent on trends and the global economy...I think of this segment overlapping with Rolex.

the second is the half focused on PM complicated/grand complicated references. This segment I think depends on selling maybe 30K units/year...seems pretty darn safe when considering the staying power of the top half of the global 1% on whom this segment is built. I also assume this portion while maybe half the revenue, it likely is significantly more in terms of share of contribution margin.

All this to say that Patek is not recession proof (no one is) but likely a lot less at risk to factors in this report.

[Fat_ninja]

Discretionary consumer goods are not recession proof. But it can be an asset class when people are trying to take their money out of a country