The Rolex Forums   The Rolex Watch

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX


Go Back   Rolex Forums - Rolex Watch Forum > General Topics > Open Discussion Forum

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 15 October 2021, 01:50 AM   #8251
jaisonline
2024 Pledge Member
 
jaisonline's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: USA
Watch: 5 digit models
Posts: 1,515
Talking Stocks 2.0

Quote:
Originally Posted by 7sins View Post
What a day for a lot of trades, HZAC warrants up 18%, that piece from Draft Kings is going to get them HUGE exposure as we go into merger date. I think also less likely we see a PIPE selloff de-spac. SOFI warrants positive over 10% and SABR making a run to get past $12.


Thanks for posting this here, missed it on my wire.

Rolling 1 month now at 60% returns...

Nice. I’m +42% at $2.25.
jaisonline is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15 October 2021, 02:03 AM   #8252
chsu74
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: CT
Watch: 16710,116520,SLA19
Posts: 405
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7sins View Post
What a ER from TSM, great beat on EPS and raised guidance for next year. Significant demand for 5nm chips. Going under the hood, margins at 51%! Almost 11% operating and building new plant in Japan. Also forecasting chip shortage well into 2022 https://www.investorsobserver.com/ne...inue-into-2022. Absolutely nailed this call, disappointing to see the stock only rally 2% but very confident in these trades. Look at their market share and rev, one could argue one of the most important companies in the world, no problem waiting this one out.
...

What a day for a lot of trades, HZAC warrants up 18%, that piece from Draft Kings is going to get them HUGE exposure as we go into merger date. I think also less likely we see a PIPE selloff de-spac. SOFI warrants positive over 10% and SABR making a run to get past $12.

Also for those watching TBT, we dropped below $18 today. I am trimming some gains to add to this position. FED minutes yesterday indicate tapering Nov on an expedited 6 month timeline.

As always, none of this is financial advice, do your own due diligence.



Thanks for posting this here, missed it on my wire.

Rolling 1 month now at 60% returns...
Good call on TSM. Not really concerned on price movement today. There is a lot of $110 OI expiring tomorrow with 2XP volume compared to calls. Will big money push it down and grab shares before letting it run next week? I missed adding more at low $112s as I got tied up on a call.. Maybe another opportunity tomorrow.

I can finally find more earnings with HZAC longs than loose change hidden in my couch. Doubled my position at close yesterday so good to see that there with DFKG PIPE news today. Yes, I should have bought warrants at $1.90.....
chsu74 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15 October 2021, 05:02 AM   #8253
huncho
2024 Pledge Member
 
huncho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: nyc
Posts: 6,331
BBIG Price Target = $40.00
Oct. 14, 2021 2:28 PM ETVinco Ventures, Inc. (BBIG)

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/2...e-target-40_00

this is way out there but no complaints...
huncho is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 15 October 2021, 05:11 AM   #8254
logo
"TRF" Member
 
logo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: North America
Posts: 2,301
Quote:
Originally Posted by huncho View Post
BBIG Price Target = $40.00
Oct. 14, 2021 2:28 PM ETVinco Ventures, Inc. (BBIG)

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/2...e-target-40_00

this is way out there but no complaints...
Hoooooddddllllll!!! lol
logo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15 October 2021, 05:17 AM   #8255
huncho
2024 Pledge Member
 
huncho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: nyc
Posts: 6,331
Quote:
Originally Posted by logo View Post
Hoooooddddllllll!!! lol
this stock has def been a ride to remember lol
huncho is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 15 October 2021, 05:21 AM   #8256
MrGoat
2024 Pledge Member
 
MrGoat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Real Name: Goat
Location: Southwest Florida
Watch: 16613
Posts: 4,788
Talking Stocks 2.0

Quote:
Originally Posted by huncho View Post
this stock has def been a ride to remember lol

So with a fairly unrealistic target of $40 I presume most will be holding till at least double where it is today?


Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product
MrGoat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15 October 2021, 05:35 AM   #8257
huncho
2024 Pledge Member
 
huncho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: nyc
Posts: 6,331
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrGoat View Post
So with a fairly unrealistic target of $40 I presume most will be holding till at least double where it is today?


Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product
people are crazy and are actually expecting 50+. i feel like fair value is somewhere around 15 but if it does squeeze (hate that term) i can see it going a bit higher
huncho is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 15 October 2021, 05:41 AM   #8258
chsu74
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: CT
Watch: 16710,116520,SLA19
Posts: 405
Quote:
Originally Posted by huncho View Post
BBIG Price Target = $40.00
Oct. 14, 2021 2:28 PM ETVinco Ventures, Inc. (BBIG)

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/2...e-target-40_00

this is way out there but no complaints...

I added another 300 at $7 just because it was under my avg for kicks and lol..
chsu74 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15 October 2021, 05:43 AM   #8259
MrGoat
2024 Pledge Member
 
MrGoat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2020
Real Name: Goat
Location: Southwest Florida
Watch: 16613
Posts: 4,788
Quote:
Originally Posted by huncho View Post
people are crazy and are actually expecting 50+. i feel like fair value is somewhere around 15 but if it does squeeze (hate that term) i can see it going a bit higher

Yeah, I feel the same. Figure I will get out before $15.


Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product
MrGoat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15 October 2021, 07:07 AM   #8260
7sins
"TRF" Member
 
7sins's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,340
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaisonline View Post
Nice. I’m +42% at $2.25.
Been a good ride so far, I am guessing your avg blended price is near mine at ~1.51?

Quote:
Originally Posted by chsu74 View Post
Good call on TSM. Not really concerned on price movement today. There is a lot of $110 OI expiring tomorrow with 2XP volume compared to calls. Will big money push it down and grab shares before letting it run next week? I missed adding more at low $112s as I got tied up on a call.. Maybe another opportunity tomorrow.

I can finally find more earnings with HZAC longs than loose change hidden in my couch. Doubled my position at close yesterday so good to see that there with DFKG PIPE news today. Yes, I should have bought warrants at $1.90.....
Thank you! I looked under the hood this AM, looked like a larger institutional client getting out on large block sells this AM. Still a nice 2.5% move and great gains in the 2023 and 2024 chain. Congrats on riding the HZAC train too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by huncho View Post
BBIG Price Target = $40.00
Oct. 14, 2021 2:28 PM ETVinco Ventures, Inc. (BBIG)

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/2...e-target-40_00

this is way out there but no complaints...
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrGoat View Post
So with a fairly unrealistic target of $40 I presume most will be holding till at least double where it is today?


Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product
Anyone else getting severe deja vu from the last run we had to $12.49? I would note that the SA article is written by the same individual back in July who called $20 and most of his articles seem to always be a bit of a stretch to push the sp. Remember most of these companies under the BBIG umbrella have little to no revenue, these $7-8B valuations are a total fallacy.

Don't forget record date for Tyde shares is supposedly Monday, I would expect big volume into that. Also you have A LOT of people underwater who bought from $9-12 and expect selling pressure along the way. If we clear $12.50 I hope to see all of you in Vegas. Will trim a bit of my exposure at $10 and along the ride way up.
__________________
Richard Mille RG RM030 || Richard Mille RM72ti || AP 26240 50TH Green Royal Oak Chrono || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP ROO Diver Green 15720ST || ♕ Rolex Platinum Daytona Diamond 116506 || Cartier Santos
7sins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15 October 2021, 07:26 AM   #8261
huncho
2024 Pledge Member
 
huncho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: nyc
Posts: 6,331
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7sins View Post
Been a good ride so far, I am guessing your avg blended price is near mine at ~1.51?



Thank you! I looked under the hood this AM, looked like a larger institutional client getting out on large block sells this AM. Still a nice 2.5% move and great gains in the 2023 and 2024 chain. Congrats on riding the HZAC train too.





Anyone else getting severe deja vu from the last run we had to $12.49? I would note that the SA article is written by the same individual back in July who called $20 and most of his articles seem to always be a bit of a stretch to push the sp. Remember most of these companies under the BBIG umbrella have little to no revenue, these $7-8B valuations are a total fallacy.

Don't forget record date for Tyde shares is supposedly Monday, I would expect big volume into that. Also you have A LOT of people underwater who bought from $9-12 and expect selling pressure along the way. If we clear $12.50 I hope to see all of you in Vegas. Will trim a bit of my exposure at $10 and along the ride way up.
i thought the record date got moved from 15th to 22nd? but yeah major deja vu and don't wanna end up holding all the way down again. all these valuations and price targets are too out there especially since no one knows what's going on with the float. $15 puts it at about 1.5b valuation according to yahoo but not sure if the market cap there is accurate. maybe $20 if we're lucky but it'd be hard to hold past the last all time high i think, and after that it's just unreasonable imo
huncho is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 15 October 2021, 07:27 AM   #8262
chsu74
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: CT
Watch: 16710,116520,SLA19
Posts: 405
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7sins View Post
Thank you! I looked under the hood this AM, looked like a larger institutional client getting out on large block sells this AM. Still a nice 2.5% move and great gains in the 2023 and 2024 chain. Congrats on riding the HZAC train.
Did you notice that $112.74-$112.20-$112.90 between 1:30-2:30EST? Only took 200K TSM shares to drop that but 600K shares to bring it back up..
chsu74 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15 October 2021, 07:42 AM   #8263
7sins
"TRF" Member
 
7sins's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,340
Quote:
Originally Posted by huncho View Post
i thought the record date got moved from 15th to 22nd? but yeah major deja vu and don't wanna end up holding all the way down again. all these valuations and price targets are too out there especially since no one knows what's going on with the float. $15 puts it at about 1.5b valuation according to yahoo but not sure if the market cap there is accurate. maybe $20 if we're lucky but it'd be hard to hold past the last all time high i think, and after that it's just unreasonable imo
My mistake, you are right, moved to the 22nd, gives it all of next week unless they push back again. Same plan here, I will trim in 10% increments at various levels of resistance, either way substantial gains at any dollar amount we sell but want to time with catalysts too.

Quote:
Originally Posted by chsu74 View Post
Did you notice that $112.74-$112.20-$112.90 between 1:30-2:30EST? Only took 200K TSM shares to drop that but 600K shares to bring it back up..
I didn't notice, great catch, I think you are right and it is probably MM's playing here for options tomorrow. Although we saw 11300 volume today for $115 strike tomorrow which I thought was peculiar. Strong volume though, unfortunate the float is so large but long term I think this is going to be a nice little trade for us.
__________________
Richard Mille RG RM030 || Richard Mille RM72ti || AP 26240 50TH Green Royal Oak Chrono || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP ROO Diver Green 15720ST || ♕ Rolex Platinum Daytona Diamond 116506 || Cartier Santos
7sins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15 October 2021, 07:45 AM   #8264
hkuo
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: SF Bay Area
Posts: 86
Yay for BBIG! Waiting for the COTY train to come back around. Nice pop today!
hkuo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15 October 2021, 07:51 AM   #8265
logo
"TRF" Member
 
logo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: North America
Posts: 2,301
Quote:
Originally Posted by huncho View Post
i thought the record date got moved from 15th to 22nd? but yeah major deja vu and don't wanna end up holding all the way down again. all these valuations and price targets are too out there especially since no one knows what's going on with the float. $15 puts it at about 1.5b valuation according to yahoo but not sure if the market cap there is accurate. maybe $20 if we're lucky but it'd be hard to hold past the last all time high i think, and after that it's just unreasonable imo
Will be hard to predict - still >20% shares short, and we are starting from $6/share this time as opposed to <$3 last time. I think prior to the last pump, anyone who bought over $5 before has had ample opportunity to sell those off, so I assume if they haven’t sold they are holding. Prospectors showing up late to the party hoping to strike gold during the last pump bought in the $8-12 range. If they haven’t unloaded for a loss already, I assume many of them are HODLers like AMC, GME etc., and/or will see the run starting and not want to miss out on any push higher, so it’s possible we may not see huge selling pressure in the $8-12 range. I’m going to keep an eye on the daily volume and start trimming based on that - that’s our indicator of when the buzz is wearing off. All I know is that short sellers here are lunatics.
logo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15 October 2021, 08:02 AM   #8266
7sins
"TRF" Member
 
7sins's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,340
There was tremendous volume from $8-$12, 800M shares plus traded not including dark pools which is 10x+ float. I have to imagine a good portion of those individuals did not sell at a loss but as frantic as retail investors are, I suspect they bail when they breakeven, then new investors come in and like you said, when FOMO kicks in it will be interesting to see where it takes us. Plus investors like all of us who trim along the way but with enough momentum anything is possible. Personally I believe there is a lot of manipulation going on here, how can you move over 300M shares and only gain 5%. Imagine writing naked calls here :X

__________________
Richard Mille RG RM030 || Richard Mille RM72ti || AP 26240 50TH Green Royal Oak Chrono || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP ROO Diver Green 15720ST || ♕ Rolex Platinum Daytona Diamond 116506 || Cartier Santos
7sins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 15 October 2021, 09:14 AM   #8267
huncho
2024 Pledge Member
 
huncho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: nyc
Posts: 6,331
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7sins View Post
There was tremendous volume from $8-$12, 800M shares plus traded not including dark pools which is 10x+ float. I have to imagine a good portion of those individuals did not sell at a loss but as frantic as retail investors are, I suspect they bail when they breakeven, then new investors come in and like you said, when FOMO kicks in it will be interesting to see where it takes us. Plus investors like all of us who trim along the way but with enough momentum anything is possible. Personally I believe there is a lot of manipulation going on here, how can you move over 300M shares and only gain 5%. Imagine writing naked calls here :X

to me it always felt obvious that there was manipulation all throughout that run a month ago. that monday where it was 10 premarket and closed at like 7 made no sense, and then all those huge buys getting routed through dark pools and somehow they kept finding shares to short and 300m volume giving such small gains or sometimes even losses. i just don't have enough knowledge in trading to bring that up so didn't wanna look like an idiot, but yeah to me there's definitely a lot of fishy activities going on with this stock and a lot of others this year

Quote:
Originally Posted by logo View Post
Will be hard to predict - still >20% shares short, and we are starting from $6/share this time as opposed to <$3 last time. I think prior to the last pump, anyone who bought over $5 before has had ample opportunity to sell those off, so I assume if they haven’t sold they are holding. Prospectors showing up late to the party hoping to strike gold during the last pump bought in the $8-12 range. If they haven’t unloaded for a loss already, I assume many of them are HODLers like AMC, GME etc., and/or will see the run starting and not want to miss out on any push higher, so it’s possible we may not see huge selling pressure in the $8-12 range. I’m going to keep an eye on the daily volume and start trimming based on that - that’s our indicator of when the buzz is wearing off. All I know is that short sellers here are lunatics.
yeah i agree, no one knows how this will play out and at this point we've held all the way to 12.5 and back down to 4.6 lol, so might as well see where it takes us again. i remember one day specifically during the last run where i was sure there was no more room left when it was like the 3rd consecutive 150m+ volume day and the price couldn't maintain 12. was really close to selling but the upcoming catalysts and options activity kept me in. sad that they didn't come through on any of those catalysts
huncho is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 15 October 2021, 10:59 PM   #8268
jaisonline
2024 Pledge Member
 
jaisonline's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: USA
Watch: 5 digit models
Posts: 1,515
7’s book recommendation arrived last night.
Amazon had it. Will start tonight.

jaisonline is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 16 October 2021, 01:19 AM   #8269
chsu74
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: CT
Watch: 16710,116520,SLA19
Posts: 405
Talking Stocks 2.0

Quote:
Originally Posted by jaisonline View Post
Interesting that HZAC warrants have been inching up while common shares have remained $9.85-$10 during the same 4 weeks

HZAC popped $0.85. 400K already from a 517K avg daily. Doubled my stake from yesterdays from that DKNG announcement.. Guess I should have bought more
chsu74 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 16 October 2021, 01:36 AM   #8270
jaisonline
2024 Pledge Member
 
jaisonline's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: USA
Watch: 5 digit models
Posts: 1,515
“Horizon Acquisition Corp. Shareholders Approve Business Combination with Vivid Seats Inc.

NEW YORK, Oct. 15, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Horizon Acquisition Corporation (NYSE:HZAC) ("Horizon"), a publicly traded special purpose acquisition company, announced today that in an extraordinary general meeting on October 14, 2021, its shareholders voted to approve its proposed business combination (the "business combination") with Vivid Seats Inc. ("Vivid Seats"), one of the leading secondary ticketing marketplaces in the country. Approximately 95.5% of the votes cast at the meeting were in favor of the business combination.

Horizon also announced today that in a special meeting of its public warrant holders, such holders voted to approve its proposed warrant agreement amendment. Approximately 99.9% of the votes cast at the meeting were in favor of the warrant agreement amendment.

The business combination is expected to close on October 18, 2021, subject to the satisfaction of certain customary closing conditions. Following the consummation of the business combination, the common stock and warrants of Vivid Seats are expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq Global Market under the symbols "SEAT" and "SEATW," respectively, on October 19, 2021. “
jaisonline is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 16 October 2021, 01:52 AM   #8271
7sins
"TRF" Member
 
7sins's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,340
Quote:
Originally Posted by jaisonline View Post
7’s book recommendation arrived last night.
Amazon had it. Will start tonight.

Enjoy brother! Let me know what you think, it is uhh a page gripping thriller lol.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jaisonline View Post
“Horizon Acquisition Corp. Shareholders Approve Business Combination with Vivid Seats Inc.

NEW YORK, Oct. 15, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Horizon Acquisition Corporation (NYSE:HZAC) ("Horizon"), a publicly traded special purpose acquisition company, announced today that in an extraordinary general meeting on October 14, 2021, its shareholders voted to approve its proposed business combination (the "business combination") with Vivid Seats Inc. ("Vivid Seats"), one of the leading secondary ticketing marketplaces in the country. Approximately 95.5% of the votes cast at the meeting were in favor of the business combination.

Horizon also announced today that in a special meeting of its public warrant holders, such holders voted to approve its proposed warrant agreement amendment. Approximately 99.9% of the votes cast at the meeting were in favor of the warrant agreement amendment.

The business combination is expected to close on October 18, 2021, subject to the satisfaction of certain customary closing conditions. Following the consummation of the business combination, the common stock and warrants of Vivid Seats are expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq Global Market under the symbols "SEAT" and "SEATW," respectively, on October 19, 2021. “
Any chance you have the warrant agreement amendment? If not no biggie, I have the docs they sent me somewhere in the house which I am sure my gf threw away. Thank you in advance. Another nice 10% move today clipping $2.50.

Quote:
Originally Posted by huncho View Post
to me it always felt obvious that there was manipulation all throughout that run a month ago. that monday where it was 10 premarket and closed at like 7 made no sense, and then all those huge buys getting routed through dark pools and somehow they kept finding shares to short and 300m volume giving such small gains or sometimes even losses. i just don't have enough knowledge in trading to bring that up so didn't wanna look like an idiot, but yeah to me there's definitely a lot of fishy activities going on with this stock and a lot of others this year

I work on the fixed income side but I spoke to our equity trader because you raise good points. He said larger funds and institutions can actually create "synthetic" shares which would not be included in the float and that is why you can see high volume with little movement as they manipulate the price. Even today, 80m volume in two hours and only positive 263bp.
__________________
Richard Mille RG RM030 || Richard Mille RM72ti || AP 26240 50TH Green Royal Oak Chrono || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP ROO Diver Green 15720ST || ♕ Rolex Platinum Daytona Diamond 116506 || Cartier Santos
7sins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 16 October 2021, 02:23 AM   #8272
Magnum75
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Rhode Island
Posts: 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7sins View Post
Any chance you have the warrant agreement amendment?
https://www.cstproxy.com/horizonacqu...L1/default.htm

I haven't gone through the entire document but the redlines seem to start on page 763.

You still get paper docs? ;-)
Magnum75 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 16 October 2021, 02:27 AM   #8273
jaisonline
2024 Pledge Member
 
jaisonline's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: USA
Watch: 5 digit models
Posts: 1,515
Quote:
Originally Posted by Magnum75 View Post
https://www.cstproxy.com/horizonacqu...L1/default.htm

I haven't gone through the entire document but the redlines seem to start on page 763.

You still get paper docs? ;-)

Many thanks!
jaisonline is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 16 October 2021, 02:44 AM   #8274
huncho
2024 Pledge Member
 
huncho's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: nyc
Posts: 6,331
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7sins View Post

I work on the fixed income side but I spoke to our equity trader because you raise good points. He said larger funds and institutions can actually create "synthetic" shares which would not be included in the float and that is why you can see high volume with little movement as they manipulate the price. Even today, 80m volume in two hours and only positive 263bp.
days like this make you realize all those stats like cost to borrow, utilization and option activity, etc, don't even matter and why i don't expect it to hit some crazy price. does this mean they can/are also naked shorting?

i've heard about synthetic shares but have to read up some more about it
huncho is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 16 October 2021, 03:18 AM   #8275
7sins
"TRF" Member
 
7sins's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,340
Quote:
Originally Posted by Magnum75 View Post
https://www.cstproxy.com/horizonacqu...L1/default.htm

I haven't gone through the entire document but the redlines seem to start on page 763.

You still get paper docs? ;-)
Haha I am old school. Thanks for sending this, I see the real change is basically to the over allotment clause and they increased their warrants to 6.5m outstanding warrants, a 600k delta and perhaps that is what was sold to DKNG.

Quote:
Originally Posted by huncho View Post
days like this make you realize all those stats like cost to borrow, utilization and option activity, etc, don't even matter and why i don't expect it to hit some crazy price. does this mean they can/are also naked shorting?

i've heard about synthetic shares but have to read up some more about it
Yeah I think after GME/AMC, HF and MMs deployed new tactics and resources to make sure that can't happen again. From him it sounded like they can use those synthetic shares so do naked shorting to drive the price down. Honestly, if you are going to manipulate the stock price, I would think they would drive it down, take those short shares and then artificially drive the stock back up, FOMO kicks in and then they make money both trades. Or maybe that is me being hopeful so we crack $10 here quicker haha.

For those in COTY, some more good PR today below. I've been adding to my 7c here under $8 and rebuilding my position I sold in the mid 9s. I believe investor day is in 8 days in which I will be paying close attention to their guidance, I think this is going to be a great ER. I asked my gf below, who is super particular and knowledgeable in makeup (obviously less particular in the men she dates) and she said CoverGirl has completely changed the game and greatly improved over the last few years, she is seeing much more shelf space at stores too.


Jefferies reported sales of the CoverGirl Clear Fresh Skin Milk Foundation increased 269% compared to last year after TikTok lifestyle influencer and Barstool Sports creator Brianna LaPaglia, who posts under the name Brianna Chickenfry, posted about the makeup.

The Skin Milk foundation represented 8% of CoverGirl's recent sales gains, and has sold out online at Ulta and Amazon, according to Jefferies.

On September 20, LaPaglia told her 1.3 million followers she spent seven years searching for a lightweight and affordable foundation, and eventually settled on CoverGirl Skin Milk.
https://www.businessinsider.com/tikt...rocket-2021-10
__________________
Richard Mille RG RM030 || Richard Mille RM72ti || AP 26240 50TH Green Royal Oak Chrono || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP ROO Diver Green 15720ST || ♕ Rolex Platinum Daytona Diamond 116506 || Cartier Santos
7sins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 16 October 2021, 03:41 AM   #8276
logo
"TRF" Member
 
logo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: North America
Posts: 2,301
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7sins View Post
Haha I am old school. Thanks for sending this, I see the real change is basically to the over allotment clause and they increased their warrants to 6.5m outstanding warrants, a 600k delta and perhaps that is what was sold to DKNG.



Yeah I think after GME/AMC, HF and MMs deployed new tactics and resources to make sure that can't happen again. From him it sounded like they can use those synthetic shares so do naked shorting to drive the price down. Honestly, if you are going to manipulate the stock price, I would think they would drive it down, take those short shares and then artificially drive the stock back up, FOMO kicks in and then they make money both trades. Or maybe that is me being hopeful so we crack $10 here quicker haha.

For those in COTY, some more good PR today below. I've been adding to my 7c here under $8 and rebuilding my position I sold in the mid 9s. I believe investor day is in 8 days in which I will be paying close attention to their guidance, I think this is going to be a great ER. I asked my gf below, who is super particular and knowledgeable in makeup (obviously less particular in the men she dates) and she said CoverGirl has completely changed the game and greatly improved over the last few years, she is seeing much more shelf space at stores too.


Jefferies reported sales of the CoverGirl Clear Fresh Skin Milk Foundation increased 269% compared to last year after TikTok lifestyle influencer and Barstool Sports creator Brianna LaPaglia, who posts under the name Brianna Chickenfry, posted about the makeup.

The Skin Milk foundation represented 8% of CoverGirl's recent sales gains, and has sold out online at Ulta and Amazon, according to Jefferies.

On September 20, LaPaglia told her 1.3 million followers she spent seven years searching for a lightweight and affordable foundation, and eventually settled on CoverGirl Skin Milk.
https://www.businessinsider.com/tikt...rocket-2021-10
I’ve been going very aggressive on COTY in $12 and some $10 calls Jan 2023. Going to give those a few more months before rolling into a lower strike and maybe 2024. Just feels so undervalued in the cosmetics industry and has been basing in the $7.50-9.50 range for the past 8 months, so I’m looking to see it breakout from there. The past few months saw some dips but in so doing we unloaded debt and improved our balance sheet tremendously. Looking at today vs March when we were at the same price point, there’s no question we are in better shape today both as a business and with more certainty of what the future looks like - back then vaccines were just starting. I think that big moves could happen with investor day and ER coming up.
logo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 16 October 2021, 03:49 AM   #8277
7sins
"TRF" Member
 
7sins's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,340
Quote:
Originally Posted by logo View Post
I’ve been going very aggressive on COTY in $12 and some $10 calls Jan 2023. Going to give those a few more months before rolling into a lower strike and maybe 2024. Just feels so undervalued in the cosmetics industry and has been basing in the $7.50-9.50 range for the past 8 months, so I’m looking to see it breakout from there. The past few months saw some dips but in so doing we unloaded debt and improved our balance sheet tremendously. Looking at today vs March when we were at the same price point, there’s no question we are in better shape today both as a business and with more certainty of what the future looks like - back then vaccines were just starting. I think that big moves could happen with investor day and ER coming up.
Totally agree with you brother and they have been cleaning up their balance sheet by reducing debt. I was speaking with an analyst who covers them and she noted that the bigger issue is KKR still has a massive stake in them with shares at an incredibly low cost basis. She noted that is why when we hit 9.50-10 we see selling pressure as they unload those shares. Not sure how much longer that is sustainable and one would pragmatically think they would let the stock run more to make more money.

I know we have spent a lot of time in this space researching, when you have a free minute and if you are open to it, I would love for you to take a look at YSG and let me know your thoughts. They are the COTY equivalent in China and number one in many categories with great growth and margin, although still losing money albeit getting closer to profitability. Bigger issue is it being a chinese stock which the headlines with Chinese stocks caused the price decline but to move from $24 to $3 seems quite oversold. Not like Xi is going to ban makeup and his current initiatives have nothing to do with this industry. Let me know your thoughts, stock is struggling to find a bottom but could pose for some potential great upside. I'll make a post with a few slides from their investor deck next week but I am really taking a deep dive here.
__________________
Richard Mille RG RM030 || Richard Mille RM72ti || AP 26240 50TH Green Royal Oak Chrono || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP ROO Diver Green 15720ST || ♕ Rolex Platinum Daytona Diamond 116506 || Cartier Santos
7sins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 16 October 2021, 04:58 AM   #8278
7sins
"TRF" Member
 
7sins's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,340
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7sins View Post
However, I am putting cash to work today/Mon, to build a small position then full build out next week on VMW. Recall I brought this up earlier this year when their CEO left to INTC, we made a quick 60% on those trades after the stock was oversold on the news.

Something similar here, stock is down 8% and is completely oversold on ER results.

"License revenue, from the company’s traditional on premise software business,- was $738 million, up 3%, and ahead of the Street consensus forecast of $699 million. But subscription and software-as-a-service revenue—basically the company’s cloud business—was $776 million, up 23%, but below the Street consensus call for $790 million"

This is on GREAT sales growth, complete and utter over-reaction. They grew their sales growth by 145M/23%, 11m short of est or 1.7%. Right, what an egregious miss. Then stock sells off 9% this AM.

Give me a break, especially when you consider they beat eps by 6.7% $1.75 vs. $1.64. Their 2021 forward P/E is now 21, P/S 5 which is very low for the category and back to where they started the year. Lastly, they are set to spinoff from Dell this year which will be a positive catalyst and should push it back to the 160s.

I have a two day rule of waiting for price to stabilize but will be buying here in the 140s, I am modeling returns for different strike LEAPS and will post where I allocate. This could be a nice single or double return without much risk in a very large/stable company.

Just my .02, another idea to toss around, always do your own research.
I know a few of you hopped this train with me into $VMW back in Sept and wanted to close the loop here. We purchased low 140s, I think a few of you got in around $138 (Pete talking to you brother), now back to $156. ATM leaps here are now positive 40%, nice 2 month return, I am pulling out on my entire initial investment and letting the rest ride to see what happens with the Dell spinoff.
__________________
Richard Mille RG RM030 || Richard Mille RM72ti || AP 26240 50TH Green Royal Oak Chrono || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP ROO Diver Green 15720ST || ♕ Rolex Platinum Daytona Diamond 116506 || Cartier Santos
7sins is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 16 October 2021, 07:33 AM   #8279
CoveWatch
"TRF" Member
 
CoveWatch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: SoCal
Watch: Rolex & AP
Posts: 4,535
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7sins View Post
I know a few of you hopped this train with me into $VMW back in Sept and wanted to close the loop here. We purchased low 140s, I think a few of you got in around $138 (Pete talking to you brother), now back to $156. ATM leaps here are now positive 40%, nice 2 month return, I am pulling out on my entire initial investment and letting the rest ride to see what happens with the Dell spinoff.
That was a great call! Thank you for that! I didn't avg down as much as I should have in the $137-$138's but a more than solid return nonetheless.

Now I guess the only thing thats left to do is to start Mandala Mondays and Cincoro Sundays!
CoveWatch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 17 October 2021, 12:16 PM   #8280
chsu74
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: CT
Watch: 16710,116520,SLA19
Posts: 405
Talking Stocks 2.0

@7sins Following the TSM rabbit hole here and I like ASML so looking for your thoughts on a potential play.

ASML is the only manufacturer of equipment size of buses to print etchings on these 5 nm chips. Listen to minute 15:30. Maybe LRCX is going to get in on it as well.

https://youtu.be/GU87SH5e0eI

It appears that the world if going to build 55 new fabs in the world over the next 4 years. US maybe doubling their new fabs over the next 10 years. I think their order book is gonna be lengthy. ASML and LRCX both report their qtrs on Thu?
chsu74 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 4 (0 members and 4 guests)
 

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

My Watch LLC

OCWatches

DavidSW Watches

Coronet

Takuya Watches

Bobs Watches

Asset Appeal


*Banners Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.





Copyright ©2004-2024, The Rolex Forums. All Rights Reserved.

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Rolex is a registered trademark of ROLEX USA. The Rolex Forums is not affiliated with ROLEX USA in any way.