What is really going on with Rolex supply, part 2 (from Jake’s Rolex World)

[jstan9]

http://www.rolexmagazine.com/2018/10...ith-rolex.html

By Capt. Danny Crivello

[Andad]

Interesting but what is going on with supply?

[troways]

Of course the sales amount is going up, because of the shortage of SS model, it cause them to selling more PM model for higher profit and increase the total sales amount, easy to figure it out.

[rambo99]

UK ADs buy more watches from Rolex doesn't mean their customers get more watches. they may sell most of them to the grey dealers under the table.

[RLXURY]

I had a long discussion with my AD the other day about the current situation and he said that:
- When we (the AD) asks Rolex for more watches to sell, Rolex answer is:
-"We are already supplying you (the AD) with enough watches for your area and market!".

That is the answer you would expect from a charitable trust, I guess..

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by directioneng

Interesting but what is going on with supply?

I think our group covered every conceivable option here.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by troways

Of course the sales amount is going up, because of the shortage of SS model, it cause them to selling more PM model for higher profit and increase the total sales amount, easy to figure it out.

Yes but is the SS shortage caused by Rolex reducing supply or by being utterly sold out? I think the second is the main factor, and the first, if there has been any, is in reaction to that and the flipper madness that has engulfed the brand.

[WatchLurv]

Numbers are up because they bundle PMs or multiple DJs with an SS. Supply for SS has decreased. The end.

[1William]

I would believe that some AD's are holding back models and driving sales of less popular models. Some AD's are fueling the Grey Market and others are doing both. This will change at some point. The hope is that it will get better but it may be worse before it gets better.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

I think our group covered every conceivable option here.

I think not.

You and “your group” (now that was funny) have no real idea or know of “every conceivable option” that Rolex are doing.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by rambo99

UK ADs buy more watches from Rolex doesn't mean their customers get more watches. they may sell most of them to the grey dealers under the table.

not in the UK... that isnt as much of a thing. WF has the market basically cornered and they sit back and let individual flippers sell to them. They have no elaborate AD buying operation i have ever heard anything about

You can be pretty confident that with a watch purchased from WF, you are at least the 3rd owner... original purchaser, WF, and then you

Part of the reason is that buying in bulk from AD's in the UK and you are not getting 20%+ discounts so there is no incentive for a dealer to source from an AD. In the US a grey dealer can buy a ton of DJ's or whatever and get a huge discount and the AD might sell them hot models also, to return the favor.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

I think our group covered every conceivable option here.

facts or not people are going to believe what they want to be true anyway

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by directioneng

I think not.

You and “your group” (now that was funny) have no real idea or know of “every conceivable option” that Rolex are doing.

I meant every conceivable avenue of conjecture, right or wrong. Obviously, if any of us knew what Rolex was doing, there would only be one option. By "our group," I just meant the people who contributed to that thread.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

I meant every conceivable avenue of conjecture, right or wrong. Obviously, if any of us knew what Rolex was doing, there would only be one option. By "our group," I just meant the people who contributed to that thread.

yeah that data was used to justify every conspiracy theory in existence and some new ones as well. Same numbers.

[jrs146]

Originally Posted by 1William

I would believe that some AD's are holding back models and driving sales of less popular models. Some AD's are fueling the Grey Market and others are doing both. This will change at some point. The hope is that it will get better but it may be worse before it gets better.

Agree!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Devildog]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Numbers are up because they bundle PMs or multiple DJs with an SS. Supply for SS has decreased. The end.

There is absolutely zero evidence of this, other than anicdotal.

And the numbers do not support increased PM sales either.

However, all of the real evidence available supports the scenario of a spike in demand that Rolex cannot (or don't want to) keep up with.

[jstan9]

My amazing rep at the best AD in the Bay Area says while it looks like a shortage, they’re actually getting (slightly) more SS models this year than last, and they got more last year than 2016. The surge in demand is what has caught Rolex flat-footed. The ADs are more frustrated than we are. They’re in business to sell, not take lists or tell people “no.”

[askdanny]

Thank you for the promo. I added some info about the Asian market at the bottom of the article. --Capt Danny

[R!$]

it will only get worse

[kauffee]

Originally Posted by jstan9

My amazing rep at the best AD in the Bay Area says while it looks like a shortage, they’re actually getting (slightly) more SS models this year than last, and they got more last year than 2016. The surge in demand is what has caught Rolex flat-footed. The ADs are more frustrated than we are. They’re in business to sell, not take lists or tell people “no.”

I believe this is true, but something's not making sense. Two years ago you could walk into any AD here in Portland and find Submariners, GMT LN's, and maybe even a BLNR from time to time. There hasn't been any meaningful change in the economy of our city since then. So if the ADs are getting the same or more watches, who is buying them?

I would think the Bay Area would be the same way. Sure, the economy is probably slightly stronger than it was a year or two ago... but it's not that different. And in the summer of 2017 I was in SF and all the ADs had SS sports models in the case.

Something doesn't add up. Where is this demand coming from? Who is buying these watches?

[fewwords]

Why would AD be upset about not selling a watch?
Jewellery is their main income with much higher margin, ss watches are not that big of a deal.
They‘re probably more happy about denying 10 ss customers while selling 1-2 pm models.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by fewwords

Why would AD be upset about not selling a watch?
Jewellery is their main income with much higher margin, ss watches are not that big of a deal.
They‘re probably more happy about denying 10 ss customers while selling 1-2 pm models.

margins are higher and they sit longer. Its related. SS watches turnover quickly.

My wife has been looking at the same bracelet at my AD for a year... same one and its still there. Good thing because she takes a long time to decide.

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by kauffee

I believe this is true, but something's not making sense. Two years ago you could walk into any AD here in Portland and find Submariners, GMT LN's, and maybe even a BLNR from time to time. There hasn't been any meaningful change in the economy of our city since then. So if the ADs are getting the same or more watches, who is buying them?

Earlier this year (around February or March, I think), I was talking to an associate at Ben Bridge at Washington Square, and she said they hadn't gotten in any sports models since the previous fall, which was a definite change from the year prior. I was just there a couple weeks ago, and the cases were similarly barren in terms of sports models; I didn't bother asking what kinds of shipments they'd received. I'm not saying Jon's AD is wrong, but it doesn't necessarily reflect the state of things at all ADs. Which is the more common scenario, I don't know, but there have been a number of anecdotal reports from members that their ADs' shipments have decreased. I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but I think the demand spike doesn't explain everything. It might explain most of what's going on, but there has to be some explanation for decreased shipments, whether it's punishing certain dealers for supplying grays, or diverted supply to higher-demand markets, or some such.

[kauffee]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

Earlier this year (around February or March, I think), I was talking to an associate at Ben Bridge at Washington Square, and she said they hadn't gotten in any sports models since the previous fall, which was a definite change from the year prior. I was just there a couple weeks ago, and the cases were similarly barren in terms of sports models; I didn't bother asking what kinds of shipments they'd received. I'm not saying Jon's AD is wrong, but it doesn't necessarily reflect the state of things at all ADs. Which is the more common scenario, I don't know, but there have been a number of anecdotal reports from members that their ADs' shipments have decreased. I'm not one for conspiracy theories, but I think the demand spike doesn't explain everything. It might explain most of what's going on, but there has to be some explanation for decreased shipments, whether it's punishing certain dealers for supplying grays, or diverted supply to higher-demand markets, or some such.

Good points. As the saying goes, the plural of anecdote is not data. I shouldn't generalize too much from a few stories.

[mstauqir]

I’m currently traveling through Kuwait.. and there is a wait list for DJ SS. Forget the professional watches, can’t even find a DJ here.

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by kauffee

Good points. As the saying goes, the plural of anecdote is not data. I shouldn't generalize too much from a few stories.

Since Rolex doesn't publish sales data (except the aggregate data they are required to in the UK), all we can do is surmise based on anecdotal reports. I'm wary of putting too much stock in them, but I've seen enough reports from members that, combined with my own experience, cause me to believe something has changed in terms of the allocation numbers. That may not mean Rolex is pulling some insidious game to rig the market, but if allocation is different, then Rolex is doing something differently. If so, then it's not just that the watches are selling faster due to a demand spike.