the Coronavirus outbreak thread

[12Relojes]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I just don’t believe this number, I believe you heard it but I can’t believe a first-world nation like the UK would suffer this much. Modern medicine has eliminated Polio, TB, even cured some forms of cancer. I don’t believe with all the resources and knowledge at our disposal any modern country would suffer this much from an influenza. If this were some laboratory-created super microbe (think of the movie “I am Legend”) maybe, but I honestly feel with public measures and medicinal experts working around the clock it will not get this bad.

Yet the people who actually have an understanding of virology believe these numbers. How you "honestly feel" is not helpful.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by Seibei

Ok, do you believe this?:



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

1543 cases and 55 deaths.

Given the UK policy on this it is perfectly reasonable to expect them to have tens of millions of cases and it follows that it is perfectly reasonable to expect hundreds of thousands of deaths. Let's hope a vaccine is developed before that happens, there is promising work being done in that direction.

Exactly my point, I believe a cure(?) vaccine(?) something will intercede and stop this from happening.

Call me the eternal optimist

[12Relojes]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Someone PM’d me bringing up the Spanish Flu in 1915 which killed hundreds of thousands. That was 1915, we have progressed a great deal in medicine in the last 100 years.

Not really. Influenza vaccine only conferred immunity to 40% of those who took it last year and the year before that. It was 19% effective in 2014-15 season.

[Old Expat Beast]

Originally Posted by THC

And I was there !!!

I knew I shouldn't have bothered.

[12Relojes]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Exactly my point, I believe a cure(?) vaccine(?) something will intercede and stop this from happening.

Call me the eternal optimist

Can I call you someone offering opinions when he shouldn't be?

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by 12Relojes

Can I call you someone offering opinions when he shouldn't be?

No.

[12Relojes]

Originally Posted by Seibei

Ok, do you believe this?:



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

1543 cases and 55 deaths.

Given the UK policy on this it is perfectly reasonable to expect them to have tens of millions of cases and it follows that it is perfectly reasonable to expect hundreds of thousands of deaths. Let's hope a vaccine is developed before that happens, there is promising work being done in that direction.

This shows a 3.9% mortality, nearly 40 times worse than the seasonal flu.

[77T]

Originally Posted by THC

And I was there !!!

Yes I found that picture of you NOT wearing your mask and being denied access to mass transit system...



But seriously, the irony is that picture was taken in Seattle, and they knew 100 years ago that masks thwarted community flu spread.


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[mannyv11]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I just don’t believe this number, I believe you heard it but I can’t believe a first-world nation like the UK would suffer this much. Modern medicine has eliminated Polio, TB, even cured some forms of cancer. I don’t believe with all the resources and knowledge at our disposal any modern country would suffer this much from an influenza. If this were some laboratory-created super microbe (think of the movie “I am Legend”) maybe, but I honestly feel with public measures and medicinal experts working around the clock it will not get this bad.

Just because you don’t believe it doesn’t make it not a real number.

[Db7566]

Or is the irony that 100 years later we wear masks in public thinking it will help when it won't?

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[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by mannyv11

Just because you don’t believe it doesn’t make it not a real number.

True, it could reach this bad or even worse, I just think medical science will cut this off.

Shouldn’t everyone hope I’m right?

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by Db7566

Or is the irony that 100 years later we wear masks in public thinking it will help when it won't?

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Spot on!!!! I shake my head at people wearing a $.30 Home Depot dust mask thinking it will filter a virus.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

True, it could reach this bad or even worse, I just think medical science will cut this off.

Shouldn’t everyone hope I’m right?

I do.

I also think there is a lot of misinformation out there.

If that number were real, it would be plastered all over every news channel. They would eat that up.

[12Relojes]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

No.

Irresponsible? It's not optimism to run past firefighters into a burning building to say construction has progressed a lot since the shirt factory fire of 1911 and you believe they’re going to be fine. It’s kind of what you’re doing.

[77T]

Originally Posted by Db7566

Or is the irony that 100 years later we wear masks in public thinking it will help when it won't?

I agree surgical masks on healthy people have little protection. But on those who are walking around with coronavirus and sneezing/coughing, it helps by stopping their role in community transfer.

Back in 1918, they had no tests to identify non-symptomatic H1N1 carriers. Thus the order for everyone to wear one.



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[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Let's all take a time out and watch Arnold and his donkeys give us a pep talk.

I love it!

Wish my donkeys were as well behaved.

The video is about half way down the page.

Stay safe.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/enter...cli/index.html

Ha ha, those donkeys are adorable

[daveathall]

Originally Posted by superdog

I do.

I also think there is a lot of misinformation out there.

If that number were real, it would be plastered all over every news channel. They would eat that up.

It was first reported on Sky news (UK) a couple of hours ago, the report said that without full quarantine until a vaccine was found the death rate (in a good scenario) would be a quarter of a million. The first paper I found for tomorrow, goes 10K higher. (bottom right headline).

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by 12Relojes

Irresponsible? It's not optimism to run past firefighters into a burning building to say construction has progressed a lot since the shirt factory fire of 1911 and you believe they’re going to be fine. It’s kind of what you’re doing.

Uhm yeah... yeah great analogy.

Why not use your whopping 50 posts as a member here to express your entitled opinion respectfully. Mine is medical science will (somehow) cut this off before so many people die, how foolish of me to hope for the best. You don’t think so? You believe hundreds of thousands will perish? A reasonable and potentially correct opinion.

[12Relojes]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Spot on!!!! I shake my head at people wearing a $.30 Home Depot dust mask thinking it will filter a virus.

While you shake your head, they are reducing the possibility that they spread it to others, even though it doesn't protect them. It's as silly as covering your cough.

[77T]

Originally Posted by 12Relojes

Irresponsible? It's not optimism to run past firefighters into a burning building to say construction has progressed a lot since the shirt factory fire of 1911 and you believe they’re going to be fine. It’s kind of what you’re doing.

May I suggest reading the many admonitions of the Mods earlier in this thread to refrain from personalizing attacks on people’s opinions?

You are so late to this convo - and so near the precipice of leaving TRF, that I’m sharing out of respect for your longtime membership.

Only sharing In the spirit of the community.


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[12Relojes]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Uhm yeah... yeah great analogy.

Why not use your whopping 50 posts as a member here to express your entitled opinion respectfully. Mine is medical science will (somehow) cut this off before so many people die, how foolish of me to hope for the best. You done think so? You believe hundreds of thousands will perish? A reasonable and potentially correct opinion.

Now go away.

I tend to post when I know what I'm talking about. Give it a try. Everything you say is dangerous and wrong. When one hopes for the best one says "I hope this isn't true." not, I don't believe these numbers.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by daveathall

It was first reported on Sky news (UK) a couple of hours ago, the report said that without full quarantine until a vaccine was found the death rate (in a good scenario) would be a quarter of a million. The first paper I found for tomorrow, goes 10K higher. (bottom right headline).

My friend. That looks like a great way to sell papers.

Fear sells.

[subtona]

“Handwashing with soap and warm water for 20 seconds is the preferred method of reducing germs and COVID19 transmission.

Hand sanitizer is less effective and should be used when handwashing facilities are unavailable.”

[12Relojes]

Originally Posted by 77T

May I suggest reading the many admonitions of the Mods earlier in this thread to refrain from personalizing attacks on people’s opinions?

You are so late to this convo - and so near the precipice of leaving TRF, that I’m sharing out of respect for your longtime membership.

Only sharing In the spirit of the community.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

I'm out. The other doctor dropped out of this thread too.

[gnuyork]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Uhm yeah... yeah great analogy.

Why not use your whopping 50 posts as a member here to express your entitled opinion respectfully. Mine is medical science will (somehow) cut this off before so many people die, how foolish of me to hope for the best. You don’t think so? You believe hundreds of thousands will perish? A reasonable and potentially correct opinion.

Now go away.

Completely unnecessary

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by 12Relojes

I'm out. The other doctor dropped out of this thread too.

[daveathall]

Originally Posted by superdog

My friend. That looks like a great way to sell papers.

Fear sells.

Yes, of course Seth, I have been a big critic of our media sensationalising this for a time. I forget what the document was produced from that they reference, I think that it was a computer model, which, as we know is only as good as the information inputted. I have been surprised at how little other news channels have used this, I know that the BBC is not really a reliable source but they skipped over it completely.

[Old Expat Beast]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Uhm yeah... yeah great analogy.

Why not use your whopping 50 posts as a member here to express your entitled opinion respectfully. Mine is medical science will (somehow) cut this off before so many people die, how foolish of me to hope for the best. You don’t think so? You believe hundreds of thousands will perish? A reasonable and potentially correct opinion.

Now go away.

That gets you an infraction. Very thin ice here. Doesn't matter how many posts you have, telling members to "now go away" is out of order.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Someone PM’d me bringing up the Spanish Flu in 1915 which killed hundreds of thousands. That was 1915, we have progressed a great deal in medicine in the last 100 years.

You might want to ask the person who gave you this information the source of their facts.

The Spanish Flu was 1918.

The Spanish Flu did not kill a few hundreds of thousands. Estimates vary, but it appears to have killed between 20-50 million people.

The Spanish Flu infected about 28% of Americans, it had a mortality rate of about 2.5% or about 670,000 Americans

Yes, we have better medical care now. But on the other hand, there were not nearly that many people in the world then. And we were not as interconnected. I have no clue whether better medicine will prevail. I hope so. But I am very conerned.

Here is an article from Sanford U.

https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/

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