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Old 9 October 2019, 02:58 PM   #1
Lordainz
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Richard Mille Bubble

Do you guys think that Richard Mille is a bubble? If not then what watch do you think is a bubble? I honestly think that RM is a bubble just for the fact that the watch is nice looking but nothing special. We do have other watches made of titanium before RM made any? I know that the base plate is made of titanium but does that make it worth 100k and up?
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Old 9 October 2019, 07:34 PM   #2
Fat_ninja
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the watch is probably the most comfortable luxury sports watch I’ve ever worn. Since I am only willing to pay msrp, I don’t think there is a bubble but they only make like 5-6k watches per year so it’s difficult to get. So I do understand why it goes for more in the secondary market at the moment.

As for 100k... I do think it’s worth that much... also I have to understand making fewer pieces will often cost more per part vs making 1 mil of the same parts. Not to mention the use of more innovative materials.

Rolex ss in my mind is a bubble.
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Old 10 October 2019, 12:12 AM   #3
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Nearly ALL watches are experiencing something of a bubble or resurgence. Watches in general are "HOT" right now.

But, IMHO, RM is legit. Prices are a bit inflated because of the current limited availability and temporary increased demand. BUT, don't be thinking they are in a bubble like they will pop or plummet. Too much brand equity, too much distribution control. I have a hard time thinking they will follow the path of Franck Mueller, like some have said. If RM softens anytime, looking in the next 5-10 year cycle, I'd still expect paying MSRP or only a modest discount.
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Old 10 October 2019, 01:08 AM   #4
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Come back in ten years. Then we'll have an answer.
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Old 10 October 2019, 04:40 AM   #5
Lordainz
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Originally Posted by Fat_ninja View Post
the watch is probably the most comfortable luxury sports watch Iíve ever worn. Since I am only willing to pay msrp, I donít think there is a bubble but they only make like 5-6k watches per year so itís difficult to get. So I do understand why it goes for more in the secondary market at the moment.

As for 100k... I do think itís worth that much... also I have to understand making fewer pieces will often cost more per part vs making 1 mil of the same parts. Not to mention the use of more innovative materials.

Rolex ss in my mind is a bubble.
Hm I see that does make sense. Well online they are going for big money. Rolex is insane right now.
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Old 10 October 2019, 04:42 AM   #6
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Nearly ALL watches are experiencing something of a bubble or resurgence. Watches in general are "HOT" right now.

But, IMHO, RM is legit. Prices are a bit inflated because of the current limited availability and temporary increased demand. BUT, don't be thinking they are in a bubble like they will pop or plummet. Too much brand equity, too much distribution control. I have a hard time thinking they will follow the path of Franck Mueller, like some have said. If RM softens anytime, looking in the next 5-10 year cycle, I'd still expect paying MSRP or only a modest discount.
I understand that scarcity makes its value go up but some of this are insane in pricing.
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Old 10 October 2019, 04:44 AM   #7
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Come back in ten years. Then we'll have an answer.
Everyone will have an answer by then. Speculating is fun just curious what my fellow peers think about it.
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Old 10 October 2019, 06:03 AM   #8
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I think Rolex steel sports are a bubble, RM is worse, it's a fad. Sure they make a great watch but the disparity between what you get for what you pay is too large, even at msrp. That difference can be accounted for as marketing and branding, scarcity being a part of that, but ultimately there's a disproportionate amount of the price placed in brand over substance. Nothing wrong with that but it does send up a flag that maybe the popularity is attributable more to marketing hype than product value. RM doesn't have significant internal ip/innovation, has not invested in significant in-house capabilities, and does not have massive brand equity built from 100s of years of success. It's basically a super hot lifestyle brand and marketing exercise, an amazing and genius one, but one extremely dependent on celebrities and the allure of being on the "most expensivist" list of luxury goods during a huge everything but bubble. Every brand had to start somewhere and if I saw RM investing in the future of the brand by building out in-house production and engineering then I could see it as new kid on the block bubble but instead they are spending time manipulating the hype cycle with candy watches.
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Old 10 October 2019, 06:39 AM   #9
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Have a look at one up close. They are indeed something special. Worth asking price? Not in my opinion but most watches aren't.
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Old 10 October 2019, 07:06 AM   #10
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I think Rolex steel sports are a bubble, RM is worse, it's a fad. Sure they make a great watch but the disparity between what you get for what you pay is too large, even at msrp. That difference can be accounted for as marketing and branding, scarcity being a part of that, but ultimately there's a disproportionate amount of the price placed in brand over substance. Nothing wrong with that but it does send up a flag that maybe the popularity is attributable more to marketing hype than product value. RM doesn't have significant internal ip/innovation, has not invested in significant in-house capabilities, and does not have massive brand equity built from 100s of years of success. It's basically a super hot lifestyle brand and marketing exercise, an amazing and genius one, but one extremely dependent on celebrities and the allure of being on the "most expensivist" list of luxury goods during a huge everything but bubble. Every brand had to start somewhere and if I saw RM investing in the future of the brand by building out in-house production and engineering then I could see it as new kid on the block bubble but instead they are spending time manipulating the hype cycle with candy watches.
Rolex Sport is my second option as well. That's what I'm saying about RM unique look and titanium that's it.
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Old 10 October 2019, 07:10 AM   #11
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Have a look at one up close. They are indeed something special. Worth asking price? Not in my opinion but most watches aren't.
Which other watch do you think is not worth the price either? I think the Rolex for Cartier is a big rip off. 100k just to have Cartier written on a Rolex nothing special.
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Old 10 October 2019, 07:31 AM   #12
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Which other watch do you think is not worth the price either? I think the Rolex for Cartier is a big rip off. 100k just to have Cartier written on a Rolex nothing special.


Pretty much all watches over 1k arenít worth it. We buy them because we like them and they are fun toys.
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Old 10 October 2019, 07:39 AM   #13
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RM is the new age Panerai.....don’t get stuck with one
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Old 10 October 2019, 07:42 AM   #14
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a bubble would imply an oversupply and no genuine demand. neither is true

their client base is tiny but so is their production

they have no competition in this top end of the market. comfort, weight, materials, performance

they focus on being exclusive with high barriers to entry

RM is doing everything right.. look at the pieces that they are coming out now. if you arent impressed by them on a horological or artistic level then they arent for you
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Old 10 October 2019, 08:23 AM   #15
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a bubble would imply an oversupply and no genuine demand. neither is true
I don't think that's the right definition of a speculative investment bubble. :)

Supply isn't as relevant to the definition as speculation on value not rooted in fundamentals is.

People are talking about investing in non-vintage watches for, probably, the first time in history.

Sounds like tulip mania to me.
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Old 10 October 2019, 08:42 AM   #16
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RM is the new age Panerai.....don’t get stuck with one
Not even remotely an accurate comparison.
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Old 10 October 2019, 09:09 AM   #17
Lordainz
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Pretty much all watches over 1k arenít worth it. We buy them because we like them and they are fun toys.
I thought the movement makes it more expensive seeing how they can have more and more complications? Like day date and other things.
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Old 10 October 2019, 09:11 AM   #18
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a bubble would imply an oversupply and no genuine demand. neither is true

their client base is tiny but so is their production

they have no competition in this top end of the market. comfort, weight, materials, performance

they focus on being exclusive with high barriers to entry

RM is doing everything right.. look at the pieces that they are coming out now. if you arent impressed by them on a horological or artistic level then they arent for you
From what I know RM is relying on the hypebeast train.
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Old 10 October 2019, 09:20 AM   #19
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if you dont get it, then theyre not for you
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Old 10 October 2019, 09:25 AM   #20
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From what I know RM is relying on the hypebeast train.
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then you dont know very much
RM does, indeed, benefit from and rely on the hype train, but that's actually the plan. It's working as intended. Working very, very well.

From a separate thread on TRF re: Lange... Lange could learn a thing or two about marketing and hype from Mr. Mille.

Marketing and hype is what makes people want something, and that in turn helps stabilize valuations. (Note: Not bubble valuations -- so I actually do believe the "bubble" in a handful of AP, RM, Patek, Rolex, models is actually not healthy for the brands in the long run.)
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Old 10 October 2019, 09:26 AM   #21
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I thought the movement makes it more expensive seeing how they can have more and more complications? Like day date and other things.
No offense but you have a lot to learn with regards to what drives buyers to certain watches. RM makes plenty of complicated watches. Nobody likes the car analogies but they really are pagani.
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Old 10 October 2019, 10:16 AM   #22
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if you dont get it, then theyre not for you
That's exactly the kind of response I would expect for something that is founded in hype vs merit.

I have heard comments like that when it come to defending wework as a legitimate business, bitcoin as a true currency, and hundreds of up and coming luxury fashion brands that don't exist anymore.
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Old 10 October 2019, 10:40 AM   #23
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RM is the new age Panerai.....donít get stuck with one
A friend said this to me, I kind of see a point in this.
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Old 10 October 2019, 10:41 AM   #24
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they have no competition in this top end of the market. comfort, weight, materials, performance

they focus on being exclusive with high barriers to entry

RM is doing everything right..
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Originally Posted by GreenLantern View Post
RM does, indeed, benefit from and rely on the hype train, but that's actually the plan. It's working as intended. Working very, very well.

From a separate thread on TRF re: Lange... Lange could learn a thing or two about marketing and hype from Mr. Mille.

Marketing and hype is what makes people want something, and that in turn helps stabilize valuations. (Note: Not bubble valuations -- so I actually do believe the "bubble" in a handful of AP, RM, Patek, Rolex, models is actually not healthy for the brands in the long run.)
Agree completely with both of these statements but disagree on the conclusions. Focusing on exclusivity with high barriers to entry in a space with no competition is a tried and true formula for hype fueled growth. No different than the latest exclusive club/lounge/speak easy/farm to table mixology moon vape pop-up firefest. It is a successful model but one that is trend/fad focused.

If RM combined all of that marketing with unique in-house/owned IP, technology, capabilities, and dedication to craft to build products in the long run that can stand on it's own merits and could only come from the house of RM, then RM would actually be laying the foundation for the future and "doing everything right". As it is, only focusing on throwing fuel on the marketing fire is shortsighted, it will stabilize valuations in the short run while in the hype cycle and drive immediate growth but makes no investment in the future.

I think the RM business model is more accepted in fashion were tastes, trends, and brands come and go. In high luxury and watches were brands are measured in 100's of years and heritage has become a massive barrier, I don't know that same formula has staying power. Don't even get me started on thinking of RM watches as pieces of art. There are far too many, few if any are piece unique, none are the product of a single artisan, etc... and you don't even get a tax break.
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Old 10 October 2019, 11:21 AM   #25
Lordainz
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No offense but you have a lot to learn with regards to what drives buyers to certain watches. RM makes plenty of complicated watches. Nobody likes the car analogies but they really are pagani.
Yeah I am new to the watch game and can admit it.
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Old 10 October 2019, 11:23 AM   #26
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Agree completely with both of these statements but disagree on the conclusions. Focusing on exclusivity with high barriers to entry in a space with no competition is a tried and true formula for hype fueled growth. No different than the latest exclusive club/lounge/speak easy/farm to table mixology moon vape pop-up firefest. It is a successful model but one that is trend/fad focused.

If RM combined all of that marketing with unique in-house/owned IP, technology, capabilities, and dedication to craft to build products in the long run that can stand on it's own merits and could only come from the house of RM, then RM would actually be laying the foundation for the future and "doing everything right". As it is, only focusing on throwing fuel on the marketing fire is shortsighted, it will stabilize valuations in the short run while in the hype cycle and drive immediate growth but makes no investment in the future.

I think the RM business model is more accepted in fashion were tastes, trends, and brands come and go. In high luxury and watches were brands are measured in 100's of years and heritage has become a massive barrier, I don't know that same formula has staying power. Don't even get me started on thinking of RM watches as pieces of art. There are far too many, few if any are piece unique, none are the product of a single artisan, etc... and you don't even get a tax break.
Well that is a solid point.
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Old 10 October 2019, 02:15 PM   #27
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I’ve been thinking hard about buying a RM for a while and just can’t bring myself to do it. They are not timeless and I fear the RM watches of today will look dated in just a few years...their earlier models look like something Richard Simmons would wear in an 80s jazzercise video. The same way a “hot” BMW M6 in 2008 looked ultra modern, ahead of its time, and on the cusp of technology and performance, now it looks like a dated car and nothing special. This is RM and this is why I will spend my money elsewhere. AP got into the celebrity hype game with named models for pro athletes and celebrities in the offshore line, but AP is more than just the offshore and even though interest by celebrities has waned with AP in recent years, the brand is stronger than ever and crossed the $1b USD threshold last year.
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Old 10 October 2019, 06:38 PM   #28
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Iíve been thinking hard about buying a RM for a while and just canít bring myself to do it. They are not timeless and I fear the RM watches of today will look dated in just a few years...their earlier models look like something Richard Simmons would wear in an 80s jazzercise video. The same way a ďhotĒ BMW M6 in 2008 looked ultra modern, ahead of its time, and on the cusp of technology and performance, now it looks like a dated car and nothing special. This is RM and this is why I will spend my money elsewhere. AP got into the celebrity hype game with named models for pro athletes and celebrities in the offshore line, but AP is more than just the offshore and even though interest by celebrities has waned with AP in recent years, the brand is stronger than ever and crossed the $1b USD threshold last year.
Actually, you are very very wrong on this... very best RMs are 15+ years old... 004, 008, 009, 011, 012...
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Old 10 October 2019, 07:11 PM   #29
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From a separate thread on TRF re: Lange... Lange could learn a thing or two about marketing and hype from Mr. Mille.
NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO.
Did I say NO!
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Old 10 October 2019, 08:28 PM   #30
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NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO.
Did I say NO!
So.... you don't agree?
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