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Old 13 June 2022, 08:07 AM   #1
usnwfu
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Are AP ROYAL OAKS ever going close to retail?

It looks like a few Rolex are very close to MSRP and flippers will pass at the AD. (Moda had a WG blueberry at 41k) I think eventually a few pm pieces, TT, and maybe a few less desired ss DJ might make it’s way to AD cases. Do anyone see this happening with AP? I know it’ll be harder since an AD can probably get someone to buy 10x 1159 to get a ceramic perp or open work.
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Old 13 June 2022, 10:27 AM   #2
dh1
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It's hard to predict the future :-)

But "ever" is a long time... trends are cyclical and if steel sports watches become less popular and Instagram / social media trends move on to something different, maybe demand will cool enough.

Your point about flippers and Rolex and secondary market value shows how a lot of the demand is artificial demand due to arbitrage / a guaranteed return. All of those people (and that part of demand) will go away if they can't get a guaranteed profit off of it. That will leave enthusiasts and people who actually want the watch.

All of the extra interest generated in the past 2-3 years brought in a large number of people... but it's hard to know what the breakdown is between pure $$ interest and people who will stay.
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Old 13 June 2022, 04:41 PM   #3
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All Rolex apart from the Daytona were easily up until late 2017, when prices started rising. So they’ve been rising for 4 years and in the last few months they rocketed by a silly amount and all we’ve seen in the last few weeks, is that silly amount come off again. Prices are still higher than a year ago. What Rolex have managed to achieve is to sell all the watches they couldn’t previously sell easily - all the datejusts and all the precious metal watches at full RRP (previously you could get big discounts on those). Those watches could well become easily obtainable, however the Daytonas, GMT’s, blue skydweller’s, green subs etc will almost certainly remain hard to get and therefore carry a premium.

As to the Royal Oak, no one knows for certain. However AP don’t make a lot of watches (5% of what Rolex make maybe?), demand is incredible and to me the brand has overtaken PP as the most sought after in that market in the last year. The watch and finish is stunning. As long as AP carry on doing exactly what they are doing, I don’t see a lot changing.
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Old 14 June 2022, 07:32 AM   #4
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Take a look back in the Classified section of TRF mid 2020. SS RO's selling just slightly above retail price. There will be (and usually always is) reversion to the mean. Not sure if you get back to those prices but the days of 4x retail are probably gone. Yes, they make fewer watches than Rolex, etc... but most flippers will flood the market with their stock at some point and start to drive prices down. Also, there are buyers out there that aren't flippers but do want something that is extremely tough to get and when it becomes easier to find one at reasonable prices then they probably aren't buyers anymore either.
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Old 14 June 2022, 07:33 AM   #5
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Economy is coming down and coming down FAST. Ridiculous to assume luxury goods market won’t take a hit. As grey dealers see their inventories losing value, they will quickly try to sell to minimize losses and it will have a tectonic impact across the secondary markets. Not sure when it will happen, but when it does, it will happen quickly. Probably will crash by end of summer. As grey dealers mark down their inventories, naturally less people will buy from AD or boutiques as there are other channels for them to purchase. Simple economics. And hilarious that people think prices only go up
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Old 15 June 2022, 03:40 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by Vivalas View Post
All Rolex apart from the Daytona were easily up until late 2017, when prices started rising. So they’ve been rising for 4 years and in the last few months they rocketed by a silly amount and all we’ve seen in the last few weeks, is that silly amount come off again. Prices are still higher than a year ago. What Rolex have managed to achieve is to sell all the watches they couldn’t previously sell easily - all the datejusts and all the precious metal watches at full RRP (previously you could get big discounts on those). Those watches could well become easily obtainable, however the Daytonas, GMT’s, blue skydweller’s, green subs etc will almost certainly remain hard to get and therefore carry a premium.

As to the Royal Oak, no one knows for certain. However AP don’t make a lot of watches (5% of what Rolex make maybe?), demand is incredible and to me the brand has overtaken PP as the most sought after in that market in the last year. The watch and finish is stunning. As long as AP carry on doing exactly what they are doing, I don’t see a lot changing.


Exactly this
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Old 15 June 2022, 04:29 AM   #7
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Royal oaks have come down about 40% from their highs, I think it's a time to buy if you cannot get from the boutique.
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Old 15 June 2022, 04:35 AM   #8
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A trusted seller still has 15202's offered over $150k. Most sellers still seek $100k+. But Phillips sold one in NYC last weekend for less than $90k. And Phillips always seems to sell for top dollar versus other auction houses. It seems pretty likely that we will see 15202 at $75k or less soon, and 16202 is $36k after tax. So never say never, but I think it's not as unlikely as many would have you believe.
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Old 15 June 2022, 04:46 AM   #9
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Royal oaks have come down about 40% from their highs, I think it's a time to buy if you cannot get from the boutique.

Where are you seeing that kind of decline in actual RO transaction prices please?
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Old 15 June 2022, 10:55 AM   #10
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I believe that sought-after Royal Oaks and dial variations will sustain a 50% premium over retail because new enthusiasts and non-VIP collectors shunned by the boutiques during the hype will jump at the chance to acquire a steel RO at retail. There is a much larger pool of people who enjoy watches now than in 2015 when Royal Oaks were going for a discount. Combined with AP’s acknowledgement that it’s a fatal mistake to produce too many watches, it’s inevitable that certain models will remain elusive.
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Old 15 June 2022, 11:21 AM   #11
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Where are you seeing that kind of decline in actual RO transaction prices please?
Ponti collection has a 2010 AP serviced blue dial 15202 (no box though) listed for $78k. I think $160-170k for a unworn full set is delusional, but the market will speak, eventually.
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Old 15 June 2022, 11:28 AM   #12
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I believe that sought-after Royal Oaks and dial variations will sustain a 50% premium over retail because new enthusiasts and non-VIP collectors shunned by the boutiques during the hype will jump at the chance to acquire a steel RO at retail. There is a much larger pool of people who enjoy watches now than in 2015 when Royal Oaks were going for a discount. Combined with AP’s acknowledgement that it’s a fatal mistake to produce too many watches, it’s inevitable that certain models will remain elusive.
Maybe, but someone has to pay the rent on all the shiny new AP boutiques/houses. They need to be very careful to shift enough product to pay the bills, without saturating demand.
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Old 15 June 2022, 04:00 PM   #13
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Ponti collection has a 2010 AP serviced blue dial 15202 (no box though) listed for $78k. I think $160-170k for a unworn full set is delusional, but the market will speak, eventually.
Before 2012 is the 0944 model (vs. the 1240), which has different dial aesthetics and a different bracelet and generally priced lower than the 2012+ model. But I agree with your point.

I see a wholesale 2013 fullset 15202 1240 model offered at $85k. European Watch is listing a 2016 at $93.5k.

So yeah, sub $100k now.
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Old 15 June 2022, 11:12 PM   #14
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Before 2012 is the 0944 model (vs. the 1240), which has different dial aesthetics and a different bracelet and generally priced lower than the 2012+ model. But I agree with your point.

I see a wholesale 2013 fullset 15202 1240 model offered at $85k. European Watch is listing a 2016 at $93.5k.

So yeah, sub $100k now.
And not selling.
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Old 15 June 2022, 11:30 PM   #15
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And not selling.

Going down down down
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Old 15 June 2022, 11:59 PM   #16
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Where are you seeing that kind of decline in actual RO transaction prices please?
My guess would be that the actual issue was no transactions at those prices in Jan 2022. So can’t prove there was a sale because the issue was there was little to no sales at that price.

To OP, I think between a natural correction in price plus continued price increases, the two will meet close to each other eventually. Who knows if 3 or 18 months, but unlikely that we will see late 2021 prices again anytime soon with money being worth something again. IMHO
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Old 16 June 2022, 12:19 AM   #17
rolexandlange
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I've been having some Gerald Genta FOMO lately but I can't wrap my head around prices. For exampled a 14802 just sold at Sotheby's for $75k, but I see a few dealers asking $125-150k. What this tells me is to wait because there is a lot of pain and blood letting left to be had by those currently left holding the bag.
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Old 16 June 2022, 04:31 AM   #18
dh1
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I've been having some Gerald Genta FOMO lately but I can't wrap my head around prices. For exampled a 14802 just sold at Sotheby's for $75k, but I see a few dealers asking $125-150k. What this tells me is to wait because there is a lot of pain and blood letting left to be had by those currently left holding the bag.
Yeah, I was watching this too with similar thoughts. On one hand, I'd like a 14802. On the other hand I don't want to catch a falling knife.

I wonder if whoever purchased it for $75k is a dealer who wants to list it for $125k.

I saw a 14802BA with gray dial go for $107k and the gold dial variant go for $126k. Definitely a lot lower than dealers are asking for both of those.
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Old 16 June 2022, 05:14 AM   #19
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Yeah, I was watching this too with similar thoughts. On one hand, I'd like a 14802. On the other hand I don't want to catch a falling knife.

I wonder if whoever purchased it for $75k is a dealer who wants to list it for $125k.

I saw a 14802BA with gray dial go for $107k and the gold dial variant go for $126k. Definitely a lot lower than dealers are asking for both of those.
Will be watching prices daily. All I want is the panda 26331ST which was going for over $100k a few months back. I just saw one listed on Moda for $60k and am tempted to pull the trigger but prices are way too shaky right now. I think if it gets into the $40ks I will pull the trigger.
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Old 16 June 2022, 05:41 AM   #20
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Will be watching prices daily. All I want is the panda 26331ST which was going for over $100k a few months back. I just saw one listed on Moda for $60k and am tempted to pull the trigger but prices are way too shaky right now. I think if it gets into the $40ks I will pull the trigger.
I passed on buying that watch grey for $27k in mid-2020 and I am still kicking myself.
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Old 16 June 2022, 09:35 AM   #21
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I passed on buying that watch grey for $27k in mid-2020 and I am still kicking myself.
Eh nothing you can do. Who would have known we'd be where we are today with prices. That piece has been my grail for a few years (even before the hype) but only in the last year or so have gotten to a position financially where I can afford one. To me it's hands down the best Panda on the market and best 26331 AP made.
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Old 16 June 2022, 09:50 AM   #22
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I would love to get my hands on a jumbo - been told by AP that I have “no chance” (understandably) as I have no spend history. If jumbo prices fall I may be tempted as it seems like the perfect size for my wrist. Further to this,, have also been told no chance of a 50th anniversary so if prices continue to fall It may make sense to purchase grey.
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Old 16 June 2022, 11:49 AM   #23
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I would love to get my hands on a jumbo - been told by AP that I have “no chance” (understandably) as I have no spend history. If jumbo prices fall I may be tempted as it seems like the perfect size for my wrist. Further to this,, have also been told no chance of a 50th anniversary so if prices continue to fall It may make sense to purchase grey.
If prices continue to fall and get to a place you comfortable with I'd go grey IF you do not care about building a relationship w/ AP. Grey route will be much, much cheaper than going the relationship route and, most importantly, there is no wait and no ambiguity as to if you will ever get the watch you want. I can't imagine the spend history/time investment it would take to be allocated a Jumbo at retail.
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Old 16 June 2022, 12:56 PM   #24
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I passed on buying that watch grey for $27k in mid-2020 and I am still kicking myself.
I passed on buying a mint white gold Royal Oak with factory diamond dial and Box and Papers 10 years ago for 8,000 Euros. Now it's easily a 100k + Euro watch.
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Old 16 June 2022, 08:43 PM   #25
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If prices continue to fall and get to a place you comfortable with I'd go grey IF you do not care about building a relationship w/ AP. Grey route will be much, much cheaper than going the relationship route and, most importantly, there is no wait and no ambiguity as to if you will ever get the watch you want. I can't imagine the spend history/time investment it would take to be allocated a Jumbo at retail.

Thanks for your reply and input.

I am on the wait list for a Royal Oak 41mm at retail, which would be great but have been told categorically no chance this year - so if jumbo prices fall I may decide to put in the extra ££ and purchase. I will keep an eye on grey prices and decide accordingly, thanks again.
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Old 16 June 2022, 10:36 PM   #26
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In 2018-2019 you can buy a RO or ROO on grey market with 20% under the MRSP.
We will see what market reserved us
Truly speaking I thinking about those days when you go into an AP AD and go with all you want with discount. Time is different now because AP really controls emarket. They have and control 90% of the sales point so I think that they control the market now.
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Old 16 June 2022, 11:33 PM   #27
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I honestly think if you called a dealer today and offered a 15202st blue dial complete you'd be lucky to get $75k.
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Old 17 June 2022, 12:08 AM   #28
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In 2018-2019 you can buy a RO or ROO on grey market with 20% under the MRSP.
We will see what market reserved us
Truly speaking I thinking about those days when you go into an AP AD and go with all you want with discount. Time is different now because AP really controls emarket. They have and control 90% of the sales point so I think that they control the market now.
Thats totally correct. Even in 2018 it was hard to get a RO at retail.
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Old 17 June 2022, 06:19 AM   #29
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Thanks for your reply and input.

I am on the wait list for a Royal Oak 41mm at retail, which would be great but have been told categorically no chance this year - so if jumbo prices fall I may decide to put in the extra ££ and purchase. I will keep an eye on grey prices and decide accordingly, thanks again.
Anytime! I am right there with you. Patiently waiting!
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Old 23 June 2022, 04:37 AM   #30
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Thanks for your reply and input.

I am on the wait list for a Royal Oak 41mm at retail, which would be great but have been told categorically no chance this year - so if jumbo prices fall I may decide to put in the extra ££ and purchase. I will keep an eye on grey prices and decide accordingly, thanks again.
Was told same thing. Was on the list since 2019 for the ROC I wanted and now the watch is not in production anymore.
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